Predictions for GC contenders circa 2015

[Nesker]

Gesink is 6'3/5" 190 cm
Andy is 6'2" 186 cm

Don't think height is that important to be a climber, look at Indurain for instance (188 cm).

More important is Power to Weight ratio.

When you look at guys like Gesink en Andy you see that they are very skinny (somewhere round 150 pounds) but they've got a big engine.

Just my view on this...

Cheers

 

[issoisso]

Speaking of possible future contenders, remember Dmytro Grabovskyy the MAJOR prospect that failed so far as a pro (as most eastern europeans tend to do)?

Sure, we heard of his bad behaviour and crashed cars, but now he's told the world about his vodka addiction. According to himself, he very nearly died of alcohol poisoning twice already during his career (he's 24)

Says he's finally cured now. Hopefully he can steady the ship, but somehow I doubt it.

You're like an encyclopedia of cycling info.

Not really, it's just that being portuguese I spent the season getting friends yell at me "did you see Rui Costa in race X? WOOOOOOW", so I was kinda forced to memorize

 

[Nastyy]

Also: remy di gregorio?

He has major potential but in an interview with Jussi Veikkanen, his teammate Jussi said that he tends to get little lazy in the winter and doesn't train enough.

Some names that haven't been named yet: Alexander Geniez and Thibaut Pinot.

 

[kurtinsc]

Gesink is 6'3/5" 190 cm
Andy is 6'2" 186 cm

Don't think height is that important to be a climber, look at Indurain for instance (188 cm).

More important is Power to Weight ratio.

When you look at guys like Gesink en Andy you see that they are very skinny (somewhere round 150 pounds) but they've got a big engine.

Just my view on this...

Cheers

I have Schleck at 6'1" and 140 pounds.
I have Gesink at 6'1.5" and 150 pounds.

I have Phinney at 6'4" and 180 pounds.


Indurain... well I have my doubts about how he climbed as well as he did at 176 pounds.


Now I wouldn't have predicted Wiggins would have become a climber either... but I never would have thought at 6'3" he could drop down to 160 pounds. Hincapie could never break 165 or so even when he was in pure "climber-mode". I suppose if Phinney could reach that weight, he could become a contender in the mountains... but I'm guessing 170 is probably as light as he'll get. I think getting above 160 makes it VERY unlikely that a rider could seriously contend for a GT. My brother is 6-5, and he was rail thin at 180 pounds when he was in high school. I can't imagine him at 160... not while remaining healthy.

But hey, I'll be happy if proven wrong. I'd love to see Phinney be good in a grand tour... I just don't see it as being likely at all.

 

[ImmaculateKadence]

Phinney is 6'4".

I'm sorry... but I don't believe you can be that big and really contend for a stage race with any serious mountains in it.

The best he could do from a climbing perspective is what Hincapie did (Big George is 6'3" and has a similar build)... which would be a top 25 type finish but never in contention. In many ways George derailed his classics career for 3-4 years by trying to become a climber.

Phinney is also just 19 years old. It wouldn't be unheard of for him to gain another inch or two of height at that age.

He's a TT/classics guy. Trying to make him a climber just isn't feasible at that height.

Fair point, but consider Wiggo is 6'3" and baby Schleck is 6'2". All Phinney would need to do is drop some weight because he is heavy for a GC contender. That's why it depends on his ambitions. If he wants to contend a GC, he would have to drop significantly, but I think he could do it. As it stands though, you're right; he is a Classics guy. I wouldn't be surprised if he wins Paris-Roubaix a few times, and not the the U23 edition either.

 

[Clemson Cycling]

Contador is only going to 32 in 2015 and unless he gets caught or dies or something is going to be the one to knock off.

 

[mc_mountain]

Yes, as i pointed out in the OP Contador and Andy Schleck will, barring mishaps, still be strong.

Thanks for all the posts, some more riders for me to follow with interest.

ok so here is my prediction for the top 5 in the GTs in 2015.
(assumptions made - riders stay with current teams, TOC won't clash or be a GT by then, no positive tests, no serious injuries)

2015 Giro

1. Tony Martin*
2. Kevin Seeldraeyers
3. Jurgen Van Den Broeck
4. Jack Bobridge
5. Bauke Mollema

* No Columbia rider will be able to contend at TDF due to Cavendish's stage and green aspirations

2015 Tour

1. Robert Gesink
2. Andy Schleck
3. Alberto Contador
4. Bradley Wiggins*
5. Vincenzo Nibali

* Wiggins will finish in the top ten the next 5 years but never podium despite winning a couple of MTF stages (bunch sprints of the main contenders early in the tour). I hope he goes hard at the Giro, starting this year.

2015 Vuelta

1. Alberto Contador*
2. Dan Martin
3. Jakob Fulgslang
4. Peter Kennaugh
5. Alejandro Valverde

* by 10-15 mins

lots of guess work and some wildcards in there, but it could all tie together (tried to account for team ambitions - perhaps i should try to fill out places 6-10 at the tour as it is perhaps easier to predict who will focus on this race). to consider this successful i feel i would have to get 4 names out of each 5 right and 3 of the 5 placings. all i need to do now is find a way to keep this thread going for another 5 years!

 

[Angliru]

You do realize that you have no Italians in your Giro predictions, don't you? With Ricco and Nibali alone you'd have to include them don't you think?

 

[mc_mountain]

Yes, i did think about Ricco as a wildcard, but can't be sure how well he will go after the suspension. Nibali I decided would still be focusing on the tour at the expensive of the giro. i agree it would be surprising if there wasn't an italian contending, but perhaps i haven't heard of that italian yet.

 

[Clemson Cycling]

I guess we can dig these things up in five years and see if you were even in the ballpark