Predictions: Stage 7

Jun 15, 2009
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If Armstrong plays by the same rules as the others (which i doubt), meaning only taking micro-doping, not having the advantage of a "super-drug" (like from 1999-2005) he will loose time as he did on EVERY Mountain-Stage (after Stage 4) at the giro. As i wrote in other threads Contador should EASY make up those 19 seconds. If not something is REAL WRONG.

Predictions (same playing field):
Schleck(1), Contador(2) in 1st group

Evans, Kreuziger, Sastre, Sanchez in the 2nd group. (+ 40 seconds)

Armstrong, Leipheimer, Klöden, Nibali, Vandevelde, Kirchen, Gerdemann in the 3rd group (at least + 1:20 mins.)
 
Mar 10, 2009
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Astana will set a high tempo from the start of the last climb (a la US Postal) in an attempt to prevent anyone from that group (including Contador) from attacking. Contador will therefore only be able to get ahead of Lance if he is seen to be countering another rider (perhaps Evans or F Schleck) but that counts on someone being able to attack Astana's high tempo.
 
Jul 7, 2009
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I am not convinced that little schleck is as on form as everyone seems to believe. I am going with

1. Contador (he is going to try to blow the race apart)
2. Moncoutie 30 seconds (or some other poor ******* from the break getting passed with about 300 meters to go)
3. 1:30-2:00 down Schleck, Armstrong, Evans, Tony Martin?
 
May 13, 2009
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FoxxyBrown1111 said:
If Armstrong plays by the same rules as the others (which i doubt), meaning only taking micro-doping, not having the advantage of a "super-drug" (like from 1999-2005) he will loose time as he did on EVERY Mountain-Stage (after Stage 4) at the giro. As i wrote in other threads Contador should EASY make up those 19 seconds. If not something is REAL WRONG.

Predictions (same playing field):
Schleck(1), Contador(2) in 1st group

Evans, Kreuziger, Sastre, Sanchez in the 2nd group. (+ 40 seconds)

Armstrong, Leipheimer, Klöden, Nibali, Vandevelde, Kirchen, Gerdemann in the 3rd group (at least + 1:20 mins.)
That's close to how I would guess it.

Contador, Schlecklet duel for the win.

next group: Kloden, Evans, Sastre, Sanchez, Kreuziger, maybe Nibali or Martin can surprise.

quite a bit down: LA, LL, VdV, Kirchen, Canc, FSchleck

Menchov might drop out completely.
 
Jun 15, 2009
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Cobblestones said:
Menchov might drop out completely.
I think he is already, lost 1.02 today. So it seems he got nervos coz of the human-plasma-trial. Now we see what he can do when riding clean :)
 
Mar 19, 2009
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I beleive Contra-doper is extremely strong, watching him during the TTT. Kloden too. Kloden. Nobody's mentioned him.
 
Jun 15, 2009
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No not Klöden, he is the 4th/5th on the ladder at Astana. Any other team, yes. So the german hope is for Gerdemann. To be honest am overconfident with him. But we dont have no other anymore since scapegoat Ullrich is gone.
 
I see this:

A fast pace over the first climb that sheds the field down to about 60 riders. The entire stage is slightly uphill, which will wear some out. Heading to the Arcalis climb it's moderate grade, so until we get to about 10-15km to go, this group will be the same. As the grade increases, Astana, and maybe other teams, will try to set a "USPS train" hyper fast pace to discourage attacks, but it will only work for so long, and we'll see scattering, then attacks. After that, one of two things:

1 - Contador has to be seething inside with all the focus on Armstrong. People see Berti and see this quiet Spanish guy, and think he's maybe a reed to be pushed over by Lance. Trust me guys (I think you do already!), Contador is a very determined and focused guy. His sole desire on a bike is to go uphill and crush his opponents in the mountains. He has to be burning up inside waiting for the chance to destroy Armstrong, and everyone else, and leave them all in his wake. He may get told by JB to not attack Lance, but someone is going to go up the road, and it might be Schleck, and Contador is going to go with, counter, and completely pour on the gas in the last 5km like he never has before, in an attempt to demolish everyone. Perhaps Schleckette can keep up. Maybe Kreutzier, Moncoutier, Sastre, Evans can stay close. In all logical thinking, Contador should win, and Lance should finish 2+ minutes back, in tow behind Klodi and Levi, around the same time as Rogers, Karpets, Frank, etc.

2 - The grade isn't steep enough, though the climb is long and high. The last time we were here (1997) T-Mob and Ullrich blitzed it, dropping Pantani and Virenque. So, we could see the pace remain fast, and because of the miracle of gear, Lance will be able to stay at the front, and riders will start to burn. Maybe even Contador, maybe. If this happens, anyone posting in the Clinic will know why. I don't think it will happen, but it could.

Menchov will probably drop, and should. He should focus what he can salvage out of his season on the Vuelta...if he makes it that far. Plus, he crashed the other day, so it's a perfect excuse.

Remember, it's highly likely that everyone at the top is on good gear. And with tougher testing, the first situation is likely. But testing, nor good gear, is always equal, so who knows?
 
Jun 15, 2009
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Alpe d'Huez said:
I see this:

A fast pace over the first climb that sheds the field down to about 60 riders. The entire stage is slightly uphill, which will wear some out. Heading to the Arcalis climb it's moderate grade, so until we get to about 10-15km to go, this group will be the same. As the grade increases, Astana, and maybe other teams, will try to set a "USPS train" hyper fast pace to discourage attacks, but it will only work for so long, and we'll see scattering, then attacks. After that, one of two things:

1 - Contador has to be seething inside with all the focus on Armstrong. People see Berti and see this quiet Spanish guy, and think he's maybe a reed to be pushed over by Lance. Trust me guys (I think you do already!), Contador is a very determined and focused guy. His sole desire on a bike is to go uphill and crush his opponents in the mountains. He has to be burning up inside waiting for the chance to destroy Armstrong, and everyone else, and leave them all in his wake. He may get told by JB to not attack Lance, but someone is going to go up the road, and it might be Schleck, and Contador is going to go with, counter, and completely pour on the gas in the last 5km like he never has before, in an attempt to demolish everyone. Perhaps Schleckette can keep up. Maybe Kreutzier, Moncoutier, Sastre, Evans can stay close. In all logical thinking, Contador should win, and Lance should finish 2+ minutes back, in tow behind Klodi and Levi, around the same time as Rogers, Karpets, Frank, etc.

2 - The grade isn't steep enough, though the climb is long and high. The last time we were here (1997) T-Mob and Ullrich blitzed it, dropping Pantani and Virenque. So, we could see the pace remain fast, and because of the miracle of gear, Lance will be able to stay at the front, and riders will start to burn. Maybe even Contador, maybe. If this happens, anyone posting in the Clinic will know why. I don't think it will happen, but it could.

Menchov will probably drop, and should. He should focus what he can salvage out of his season on the Vuelta...if he makes it that far. Plus, he crashed the other day, so it's a perfect excuse.

Remember, it's highly likely that everyone at the top is on good gear. And with tougher testing, the first situation is likely. But testing, nor good gear, is always equal, so who knows?
So i think all pipo on the clinic wish No. 1 comes true (which is about the same as my tipp, only that i have Gerdemann inside, but i think that may be wishful thinking:), which would show the testing works and only micro-doping is done.

But since we are not in paradise, my deep fear (and most of the "clinic pipo") is No.2 will happen.OMG
 
Mar 13, 2009
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I think they're be a small breakaway over the first climb that may contain Moncoutie or another 2nd string climber who may have hopes to hold out for a stage win.

I've also got a suspicion Liquigas will try something off the front at the base of the 2nd climb. People have been mentioning Kreuziger but I think Pellizotti is the one to look for so long as he hasn't digressed too much from the Giro. His prologue performance was fairly average considering he won the 08 Giro mountain TT but he did place in the top 10 yesterday with Evans and Kloden.

I'd actually fancy Kloden for a stage win on the early climbs if he wasnt held back by his team dymanics as he's looked amazing in the first week.
 
Jul 6, 2009
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why do cynical people on here watch cycling at all such hatred so if la does well hes automatically doping. but if anybody else for the most part does well its ok. what about contadors odd ability to time trial even on flat stages is he doping to? or are feelings purely based on emotion.
 
forty four said:
why do cynical people on here watch cycling at all such hatred so if la does well hes automatically doping. but if anybody else for the most part does well its ok. what about contadors odd ability to time trial even on flat stages is he doping to? or are feelings purely based on emotion.
Contador? probably doping. If Lance does good he is probably doping. If he does not do good he is probably doping also but is on the decline. Does that answer you question?

Lets hope the doping is at least contained or at even playing level. That's what I am hoping for. I am not sure how much more hope I can expect after seeing all the evidence of doping from the last 15 years.

This is just an opinion.
 
forty four said:
why do cynical people on here watch cycling at all such hatred so if la does well hes automatically doping. but if anybody else for the most part does well its ok. what about contadors odd ability to time trial even on flat stages is he doping to? or are feelings purely based on emotion.
Contador is probably on the same gear as Lance. They are on the same team, what do you expect? Now whether they decided to ride clean this year I am not sure about that. Everything will be evaluated by the media after the Tour.
 
Escarabajo said:
Everything will be evaluated by the media after the Tour.
But why wait for that, when we can do it ourselves! :cool:

Seriously, in all likelihood, the top 50 riders or so are doped. It might go much deeper than that. The reason why I made my post was a reflection on earlier ones, and what BigBoat has said about the higher up the ladder you are, the better gear you get, and it's assumed (yes, assumed) that LA responds well to drug therapy. That's all.

Personally, I'd like to see Astana collapse under it's own weight, and a surprise winner tomorrow.
 
Alpe d'Huez said:
But why wait for that, when we can do it ourselves! :cool:

Seriously, in all likelihood, the top 50 riders or so are doped. It might go much deeper than that. The reason why I made my post was a reflection on earlier ones, and what BigBoat has said about the higher up the ladder you are, the better gear you get, and it's assumed (yes, assumed) that LA responds well to drug therapy. That's all.

Personally, I'd like to see Astana collapse under it's own weight, and a surprise winner tomorrow.
It works for me. I like it. I was trying to be "politically correct" with our new visitors.

Let's grab our calculators and start checking those "power outputs"
 
Jul 9, 2009
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Here's just what I'd like to see: Anyone but Schleck or Contador as winner... I consider Schleck as absolutely untalented (as mentioned somewhere else) and I sort of consider any spaniard as doped:p

I know this might be unfair, but I've been training there every year for several months, and I couldn't think of someone who is riding clean down there...

Oh, and anyone but Tony Martin, for his an absolute arrogant pig!

I'd like to see some french rider... Riblon is doing very good actually in that echappé;)
 
My toughts are: stage win for one of the riders in the breakaway, my bet is Egoi Martinez from Euskatel achieving what he couldn't do last year in Prato Nevoso, and then in the peloton a high pace imposed by Astana with only the very best hanging (Andy Schleck, Carlos Sastre, Roman Kreuziger, Frank Schleck, Cadel Evans, Vande Velde and Vladimir Efimkin, plus someone I've forgotten). When there are only 5 km to the finish attacks and attacks, I hope, by Carlos Sastre, Cadel Evans and the Schleks brothers with Contador countering and Armstrong failing miserably.
 
May 13, 2009
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I see Astana up front, but the pace is pretty low so far. I don't think they shed anybody so far, not even the sprinters on the Serra Seca.
 
Cobblestones said:
I see Astana up front, but the pace is pretty low so far. I don't think they shed anybody so far, not even the sprinters on the Serra Seca.
My bad english did it again. I mean Astana will, in the last mountain, put a high pace.
 
May 13, 2009
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Oh, I didn't try to correct you.

Just saying that the pace is low. Attacks could happen anytime. Not the Disco train from old.
 
Andy Schleck was interviewed on Versus and said, with a wry smile, 'in 1997 Ullrich won from attacking from far out, so... maybe something like that will happen today'... I don't think people will wait until 5k to go to attack.
 
May 13, 2009
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skidmark said:
Andy Schleck was interviewed on Versus and said, with a wry smile, 'in 1997 Ullrich won from attacking from far out, so... maybe something like that will happen today'... I don't think people will wait until 5k to go to attack.
Well, he was right. Feillu attacked a long way out.
 

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