Ramunas over Martin and Summeren

[Eric8-A]

So Garmin decided to go with Ramunas Navardauskas for their Tour roster. Was it a good move by JV?

 

[ingsve]

So Garmin decided to go with Ramunas Navardauskas for their Tour roster. Was it a good move by JV?

Well, it's certainly an interesting choice and probably the biggest upset of the Tour in terms of team picks.

It's hard to know what his reasoning is behind it. He must certainly have high hopes for Navadauskas but you usually don't throw a young rider like that into the Tour without some previous GT experience in his first season none the less. And also not when you have so many other options.

It will be interesting to see how he will be used.

 

[Eric8-A]

I know. I figured atleast he'd be sent to the Veulta. But looking at it, he's just going to work for Tyler which way he can and be a water carrier. That's what I think.

 

[ingsve]

I know. I figured atleast he'd be sent to the Veulta. But looking at it, he's just going to work for Tyler which way he can and be a water carrier. That's what I think.

I read some speculation that Navardauskas and Zabriskie was chosen over Martin and Van Summeren because of the TTT but I'm not sure I agree that Navardauskas would be stronger there than Van Summeren.

 

[Ferminal]

It is a bit of an interesting one.

Vansummeren is one of the best domestiques going around, strong on the flat and an adequate enough climber. I can only guess that something went wrong in his preparation, or he simply didn't want to race it.

Martin is a known attacker, and decent climber in the high mountains, if only on an inconsistent basis.

I'm not sure Navardauskas can match either of them in those areas. So far this season he's been quite competitive (for a neo-pro), and able to handle the pace of the bigger races, but as we know, the Tour is a step up. Maybe he has an extra level in reserve for July.

If it's some sort of youth policy decision, well Martin is only 18 months older, and Talansky and Vanmarcke are younger.

I hope is on the ball at the Tour, and we see lots of him, so these questions can be answered...

Once again, nothing bad to say about his potential as he seems like a super talent. Even if Sagan was thrown in the Tour last year we still would have asked questions (he still hasn't ridden a GT).

 

[titleshot]

I think garmin-cervelo is really just looking to get a stage win under their belt.

Its going to be Navardauskas, Hushovd, Dean, Farrar Sprint Train.

They also say they want to get Hesjedal and Vande Velde in the top 10. I dont think that is realistic this year. They have no mountain support, it will just be those 2 hanging onto other teams wheels. So I dont think they have a shot at a good GC this year.

They also have the goal of winning the TTT, but did not bring all their good time trialists. If they wanted to have that as a serious goal they should have brought cam meyer or jack bobridge to help out as they could also help in a sprint train.
I predict they fall to the minimum 5 riders again and post a top 5 in the TTT.

I think its a mistake bringing Navardasuskas over Martin who could pull off a mountain top finish win at will. But Nav will probably be a better bottle carrier.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

He's in there ahead of three bigger names who were also mentioned in relation to the Tour team, Martin, Le Meval and Vansummeren.

The first two can be explained pretty easily on tactical grounds. With Vande Velde, Danielson and Hesjedal in the squad, and with ambitions to win sprints and the TTT, a fourth climber is a luxury. Navardauskas wasn't picked ahead of them, Danielson was. Le Mevel rode the Giro hard. Martin hasn't yet shown whether he can be consistent over three weeks and would in any case be better deployed hunting stages then getting bottles. Odd as it seems to be saying it about Danielson of all people, he's actually the reliable, conservative, choice for a GT in the circumstances.

Navardauskas has been picked in place of Vansummeren. And that is, on the face of it, pretty odd. He seems like a talented kid, but Vansummeren is pretty much the consumate domestique, a guy who has shown the ability to work hard, long and effectively. As others have been speculating, it pretty much has to be something like a form issue. Picking a talented youngster ahead of Vansummeren to fill a particular specialised role, I can see. Picking one to be a better Vansummeren than the man himself seems much less likely, no matter how good a prospect he is. Unless Vansummeren is ill-prepared, out of form or doesn't want to do it.

He's certainly not out of favour with the powers that be, after bringing the team what was by far its biggest win. And he also just signed a long new contract.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

They have no mountain support, it will just be those 2 hanging onto other teams wheels.

Whichever of Vande Velde, Hesjedal and Danielson turns out to be the GC leader will have the other two as mountain support. That's some pretty high quality bottle fetchers.

They don't have a single top GC contender who can compete with the best. And they aren't sending anyone outside their best three who is a notably good climber. But their second and third climbers (whoever they turn out to be) will compare favourably with most teams. And that's all the mountain suport a GC contender who won't be looking to control the peloton will ever need. It's not like they have any use for a US Postal mountain train.

 

[Eric8-A]

Well it makes sense they chose Zabriskie. He's been on their Tour roster since '08. But it still really doesn't makes sense why they chose Ramunas. I respected the work Summie was able to do for Hesjedal in the mountains last year. Martin says his form's looking pretty good with his win at the Tour of Tuscany. Still, I think JV could have gone with somebody different. I highly doubt Ramunas will get a stage win if that's the reason they chose him. And the Millar, Hishovd, Dean leadout for Tyler seems good enough no?

 

[just some guy]

Well it makes sense they chose Zabriskie. He's been on their Tour roster since '08. But it still really doesn't makes sense why they chose Ramunas. I respected the work Summie was able to do for Hesjedal in the mountains last year. Martin says his form's looking pretty good with his win at the Tour of Tuscany. Still, I think JV could have gone with somebody different. I highly doubt Ramunas will get a stage win if that's the reason they chose him. And the Millar, Hishovd, Dean leadout for Tyler seems good enough no?

Maybe Garmin want their 1st stage win and the god of thunder in Yellow.

Stage 1 Thor comes in 4-5 with the main guys

Gilbert
Goss
Evans
Vino
Thor
Tommy V

then the TTT next stage

Will Garmin do well in the TTT yep Will they Finish Top 3 yep will adding a better TTT guy mean a chance for the win and Thor in Yellow.

I recon JV is looking at it this way.

Ryder
CVV
Millar
DZ Nuts
Tyler
The God of Thunder
Ramunas

Make a very good TTT - they will drop guys to go faster just look at the last TTT at the tour Finished 2nd (?) with 5 guys with Tuff hanging on for dear life to keep up.

So I think JV wants to get the 1st Garmin win and get Thor in yellow - Maybe a way of saying sorry Thor please stay with us next year - will work for YOU to win on the cobbles of France- look we got you a nice Yellow top and a Lion please stay.

Just guessing and a bit silly but maybe ?

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

it's all for the ttt

 

[Midnightfright]

it's all for the ttt

It must be. I can't see any other reason for this descion tbh. How much advantage will raumnas give them for the TTT? Is he even much of an improvement over JVS? He seems reasonably handy to me for the TTT, certainly not the weakest.

 

[ingsve]

Make a very good TTT - they will drop guys to go faster just look at the last TTT at the tour Finished 2nd (?) with 5 guys with Tuff hanging on for dear life to keep up.

That wasn't Tuft, it was Hesjedal. With Tuft they might have won it. I'm not sure this TTT is stronger though. They had Wiggins that year as well and Vandevelde hasn't looked nearly as good lately. Though Hushovd is always a good motor in TTTs so that compensates quite a bit.

 

[Buffalo Soldier]

It must be. I can't see any other reason for this descion tbh. How much advantage will raumnas give them for the TTT? Is he even much of an improvement over JVS? He seems reasonably handy to me for the TTT, certainly not the weakest.

JVS should be a perfect choice for the TTT. I really don't understand this decision

 

[just some guy]

That wasn't Tuft, it was Hesjedal. With Tuft they might have won it. I'm not sure this TTT is stronger though. They had Wiggins that year as well and Vandevelde hasn't looked nearly as good lately. Though Hushovd is always a good motor in TTTs so that compensates quite a bit.

Thanks memory not so good

 

[Ferminal]

If it was only the TTT then Vansummeren is probably better. Other equal or better options would be Talansky or Bobridge who didn't do the Giro. Navardauskas' ITT results are hardly Earth shattering.

 

[perico]

That wasn't Tuft, it was Hesjedal. With Tuft they might have won it. I'm not sure this TTT is stronger though. They had Wiggins that year as well and Vandevelde hasn't looked nearly as good lately. Though Hushovd is always a good motor in TTTs so that compensates quite a bit.

Vande Velde has looked good this year, from what I've seen. He had a couple of high placings in some early season stage races, looked solid in California and on a couple of mtn stages and the TT in Suisse. Seems like a quiet, yet successful buildup without any crashes.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

It must be. I can't see any other reason for this descion tbh. How much advantage will raumnas give them for the TTT? Is he even much of an improvement over JVS? He seems reasonably handy to me for the TTT, certainly not the weakest.

He just came second in the Lithuanian National TT to Gediminas Bagdonas (they reversed the order in the road race). So, he's no slouch but he also isn't a spectacularly strong specialist.

That said, there's quite a difference between a TTT and a long ITT. It may be that he's a particularly good TTTer.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

If it was only the TTT then Vansummeren is probably better. Other equal or better options would be Talansky or Bobridge who didn't do the Giro. Navardauskas' ITT results are hardly Earth shattering.

Yes, he's clearly there for more than just the TTT, although competency in the TTT is part of it. He will have to be the chief donkey, working hard all day.

 

[cawright1375]

I was more surprised to see that Heinrich Haussler was not selected. That breakaway performance from 2009 showed real guts and talent. Then again, it seems that JV likes to race for 2nd or 4th rather than go for the win. Such is their faith in the Great Hype Tyler Farrar that we'll see Thor, who has a proven Tour pedigree lead out TF rather than the other way around.

I'm still of the opinion that Roubaix was a fluke win for the team. They might go well in the TTT but I doubt Tyler will win a sprint. And while I'd love to see CVdV do well on GC, I agree with an earlier post that without a lot of good climbers they'll have to rely on other teams.

How Tommy D performs given his past collapses should be interesting though and someone to watch.

 

[L'arriviste]

I thought Martin wasn't included because the symptoms of his allergy problem haven't really improved despite the surgery etc he's been through.

In 2010, he seemed to struggle a bit at this time of year (notwithstanding his recent win in Italy, where he always seems to do well) at least until August, after which he was really firing.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

I was more surprised to see that Heinrich Haussler was not selected. That breakaway performance from 2009 showed real guts and talent. Then again, it seems that JV likes to race for 2nd or 4th rather than go for the win.

This is just bizarre.

The team is calibrated to maximise their chances of a stage win. Their best chances of winning a stage are in the TTT, in the flat sprints with Farrar or in the difficult sprints with Hushovd. So most of the team is there to help them get that win. The only rider in the whole team who isn't going to contribute much to the TTT or the sprints is Hesjedal.

Now they do also have a goal of getting one of three riders into the top 10 and in that portion of their goals they are indeed racing for a placing because they simply don't have anyone capable of winning. But they are racing for a GC placing in a very compact, efficient, way. They are taking just three climbers, two of whom will also be helpful in their attempt to win the TTT. All three of the climbers have GT top 10s to their name. Whichever of them is riding best will have the other two as very competent assistants, which is more than a top 10 candidate really needs.

Look at the balance of the team. Its sprints and TTT first, GC distinctly second. Short of abandoning their top 10 ambitions entirely (which is presumably not viable either commercially or in terms of keeping the likes of Vande Velde etc happy), they really couldn't have laid any more emphasis on wins over placings for this Tour.

Such is their faith in the Great Hype Tyler Farrar that we'll see Thor, who has a proven Tour pedigree lead out TF rather than the other way around.

Pedigree isn't the question. The stage of their careers they are at is.

Nobody is favourite to beat Cavendish in any given flat Tour sprint. Nobody. But Farrar is one of a very small number of guys with the top speed to challenge him. Hushovd simply isn't. It doesn't matter how many stages he has won in the past or for that matter who leads out Hushovd, he simply isn't going to finish ahead of the fastest sprinters in the world on a flat finish at this point in his career. He is still strong and capable of sustaining a very high pace for a considerable period, which makes him a potentially excellent lead out, but he does not have the top end speed to be a finisher.

Hushovd does however still have the ability to compete on very tough sprint finishes, and you will almost certainly see Garmin working for him on those stages for the same reason they will be working for Farrar when its easy: Maximising their chances of a win.

And while I'd love to see CVdV do well on GC, I agree with an earlier post that without a lot of good climbers they'll have to rely on other teams.

This just baffles me.

What use exactly does a guy like Vande Velde (assuming he ends up as the leader) have for a fourth climber or a fifth climber in the team? What exactly is it that you think they would do for him? Is it that you think he'll go twice as fast if people get him twice as many bottles?

If you are a contender for the overall win and you will likely need to control the race in the mountains, you have important uses for a whole load of climbers. If you are a top 10 contender whose style is to hold on in the mountains, only your second and third best climbers are of any relevance to you because all you need from them is a bottle and the possibility of a spare wheel. Garmin's second and third best climbers compare very favourably with those of most teams. Chances are that whoever is second best on any given day out of Vande Velde, Danielson and Hesjedal will be with the heads of state a hell of a lot further up the final climb than the last assistant of most other top 10 contenders.

They are actually supporting their GC hopes in a very clever way: Only a third of the team, all but one of them also there for TTT purposes, but of high enough quality to provide all the mountain assistance a fringe GC man requires.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

I thought Martin wasn't included because the symptoms of his allergy problem haven't really improved despite the surgery etc he's been through.

The allergies screw with his chances in the Ardennes and the Giro, but are pretty much gone by this time of year. They effected him for two days in the Dauphine this year, which he said in an interview was very unusual because usually they are gone by then.

So no, I don't think his allergies have anything to do with him missing the Tour. They do however explain why he missed the Giro, which he was originally down to ride and which had a parcours more suited to him than any GT of modern times. I think that they were hoping that his surgery would have more impact on his allergies this year than it actually turned out to have.

He's missing the Tour for straightforward enough tactical reasons. He's more talented than many of the riders they are bringing, but he's not the best man to help them with their particular goals. He's of little use in the sprint stages. He's not likely to be of much assistance in the TTT. And because he's yet to show an ability to ride three weeks consistently, he's not even the most reliable choice of mountain domestique even though he's the most gifted climber in the whole team.

 

[aarnold517]

ramunas over johan is certainly an odd choice. i wonder if the fact that ramunas just won the lithuanina national championship had any effect on the choice by JV. by picking him, they're including a pretty distinctive jersey in the team, maybe JV thinks having a national champion in the roster will add to the publicity?

 

[Astana1]

JV is either just being JV, or Ramunas really must have something that they need. JVS is a tour vet and a real weapon as a domestique. He's like the ultimate teammate.

Really puzzling, but I hope it pays off.