Rank some Riders based on chance to finish top 10

Aug 18, 2009
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elTeraminator said:
Fuglsang 1/10
Mollema 1/2
Martin D 1/4
Moreno 1/10
Quintana 1/10
Zubeldia 1/4

Need assistance. This field is too deep.
Fuglsang defo going for GC but is pretty far back in the queue.
Mollema in.good shape has GT credentials, GC leader.
Good form, but who will Garmin go for? JVs ball and cups trick.
Moreno easily capable of riding a top 10 but Purito undisputed leader.
Very very talented but it's his first Tour, second ever GT and riding for Valverde.
Bruyneel vet has been in the top ten often enough he prolly doesn't care whether he does or not.
 
Aug 18, 2009
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elTeraminator said:
Martin D 1/4
Quintana 1/10
Zubeldia 1/4

Hmm... Both these guys ahead of Quintana...
The odds are pulled out of my ... hat, but yes I think either of those guys are more likely to finish in the top 10 than Quintana for the reasons stated. Not the prevailing view though.
 
There's a decent shot none of these guys finish top 10 but I'm guessing one of them will, though I'm not sure which.

Fuglsang 25% - Just don't think he has the goods. He'll drop hard somewhere.

Mollema 30% - I'd rather see him in the Vuelta as I believe it better suits him

Martin D 10% - Not happening. Talented guy but he's just not a GT gc guy, imo. He's just too fragile. I expect him to wind up working hard for someone else and winding up 4th Garmin guy

Moreno 40% - Purito's right hand man but I don't believe it will cost him much GC-wise. He's become really reliable of late.

Quintana 45% - Hardest to predict. Talent is there but 1st Tour, no recent race miles, unlike Moreno I believe he's likely to expend more energy working for his leader, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him lose time in the 1st week. That said, if he stays in the mix in the 1st half of the race, look out!

Zubeldia 20% - You can never count him out but I think the field is too deep this year for Z. Likely top 20, though.
 
Aug 16, 2011
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fgrune said:
How do you guys rate Kloden for this tour?
Won't do much I don't think, nothing significant in GC. top 20-25 perhaps.

In response to OP IMO
Mollema-top 10

Martin D- just outside top 10, 11-15. But good chance of stage, maybe polka dot.

Moreno-top 20 by being there, but not much chances as Purito's right hand man unless he crashes out.

Quintana-top 10/5, the big unknown for the Tour. But good chance of a high placing and white based on his talent.

Zubeldia- top 15
 

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