There's a decent shot none of these guys finish top 10 but I'm guessing one of them will, though I'm not sure which.
Fuglsang 25% - Just don't think he has the goods. He'll drop hard somewhere.
Mollema 30% - I'd rather see him in the Vuelta as I believe it better suits him
Martin D 10% - Not happening. Talented guy but he's just not a GT gc guy, imo. He's just too fragile. I expect him to wind up working hard for someone else and winding up 4th Garmin guy
Moreno 40% - Purito's right hand man but I don't believe it will cost him much GC-wise. He's become really reliable of late.
Quintana 45% - Hardest to predict. Talent is there but 1st Tour, no recent race miles, unlike Moreno I believe he's likely to expend more energy working for his leader, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him lose time in the 1st week. That said, if he stays in the mix in the 1st half of the race, look out!
Zubeldia 20% - You can never count him out but I think the field is too deep this year for Z. Likely top 20, though.