Stage 11: Besançon > Oyonnax 187.5 kms
Yet another hilly stage, even if it's much lighter than the Vosges ones, and it will probably be decided among the members of an early breakway group. The Cote d'Echallon (3 kms at 6.6%) is not too far from the finish (19.5 kms), but not enough to cause GC action. The subsequent descent doesn't seem too technical, and could probably cause trouble only in rainy conditions.
Stage 12: Bourg-en-Bresse > Saint-Etienne 185.5 kms
With the Alps coming the following day, this could reward an early break, but it's not uthopian for sprinters to try and win this. The Col des Brosses is very long (over 15 kms), but not steep at all (3.3%); the Cote de Grammond is even less so (2.9%). Teams like Cannondale could definitely go for this, but even a top-shape Cavendish could resist on climbs like these, especially if his team organizes the chase well, so that they can ride on the KOMs at a quiet pace.
Stage 13: Saint-Etienne > Chamrousse 197.5 kms
First high mountain stage. The fight between GC contenders will probably begin only on the final climb, but the Col de Palaquit should not be underestimated. It'a long climb (14.1 kms), and its average gradient doesn't give a proper idea of its difficulty: it starts with a kilometre at 7%, then up for 2 kms at 10.5%; a 2-kilometre descent precedes 3 kms of easy gradients, but then come 5 kms at an average of 9.4%. The penultimate kilometre of this section is at 11.7%. If a GC contenders plans on attacking on the Chamrousse climb, this is an ideal chance to cause the first selection.
The final climb is much better known. It's very important to know the characteristics of the climb, as it's quite irregular, and the first 7 kms are the hardest part. After that, kilometres at around 8% alternate with others at 5-6%. Riders willing to attack will have to be aware of this aspect of the climb, and choose carefully where to make their move.
Stage 14: Grenoble > Risoul 177 kms
Typical alpine stage, even if it pales in comparision with other big mountain stages in the same region. The Col de Lautaret is notoriously super-easy, even if it's climbed from its harder side; the Izoard is much more difficult, with the final 7 kms constantly at 7-8-9%, but the downhill and the almost 20 kms of false-flat following the climb will probably be too much to see some GC action. Only riders with lots of minutes to recover in GC might try something.
Anyway, the final climb will definitely see some attacks, even if it's not a killer climb. The gradients are quite steady, no double-digit sections, but also very little space to rest. Big gaps are unlikely, except maybe for riders cooked by the previous mountains.
Stage 15: Tallard > Nimes 222 kms
This is the kind of stage that drives my dad mad: he can only see stages live in the week-end, and they put a meaningless sprint on Sunday. I know you probably don't give a thing about this fact, but I couldn't just skip the stage, and this is the most interesting thing I could come up with about it. Seriously, unless echelons or other unpredictable events happen, this is coming down to a sprint or a break, with absolutely nothing bound to happen in the peloton.
Stage 16: Carcassonne > Bagnères-de-Luchon 237.5 kms
Nice way to introduce the riders to the Pyrenees. All the action is obviously going to be concentrated on the Port de Balès, where we already saw some great racing in 2010, the only other time the Tour had is as its last climb (once again with the finish in Bagnères-de-Luchon).
The climb is long (almost 20 kms), even if the race direction decided to categorize only the final 11.7 kms. Anyway, that's of course the steep part of the climb, and it's really hard: 2 kms are over 10%, another kilometre is over 9%, three more are over 8%. The summit is only 21 kms away from the finish, and only the final 3 kms are flat. The descent if quite techinical and narrow, so there's room for new gaps to form, or for the ones created on the climb to extend.
Stage 17: Saint-Gaudens > Saint-Lary - Pla d'Adet 124.5 kms
I'll get this straight: I don't like this stage. It's way, way too short for my taste. I always considered cycling - and GTs in particular - as an endurance race (I'm afraid this term has a stronger meaning in English than it has in Italian, but I can't come up with a better translation). Stages like this are too short for professional cyclists, in my opinion.
Still, this aspect of the stage might help us see some exciting race. The Portillon will probably be just a warm-up, but starting with the Peyresourde, anything can happen. If I were to make a prediction, anyway, I'd say GC action may start on the Val Louron - Azet: it's the shortest climb of the day (7.4 kms), but also the steepest (8.3%), it's just 22 kms from the finish, and especially just 12 kms away from the beginning of the Pla d'Adet, with virtually no flat between the two. If I remember correctly, the downhill is quite technical too.
Of course, we'll see a showdown between the GC contenders on the final climb, and it may be brutal. The stats of the climb are incredibly similar to the ones of Semnoz (10.2 kms at 8.3% vs. 10.7 kms at 8.5%), and that caused massive gaps last year, in a similarly short (125 kms) but easier stage.
Stage 18: Pau > Hautacam 145.5 kms
I'm probably getting boring (well, I probably did around stage 2, but still), but I don't like this stage either. Technically speaking, the same Tourmalet - Hautacam combo is appearing for just the 2nd time, but it feels like I've seen it a hundred times. It's the same Tourmalet + MTF sequence we've been seeing since forever, and the climb is no longer that new (it's the 5th finish there in the last 20 years). Also, the flat section between the end of the descent of the Tourmalet and the beginning of Hautacam is pretty long, a problem which could have been avoided by just climbing the Aubisque instead of the Tourmalet (I know that's not exactly a fresh climb either, but I won't even consider the idea of Prudhomme climbing Spandelles).
Anyway, there's of course room for some good racing. We're talking about 17.1 kms at 7.3% followed by 13.6 kms at 7.8%, halfway into the final week, after two stages on the Pyrenees, three on the Vosges, two on the Alps, a stage on the cobblestones of Paris-Roubaix and plenty of hilly stages. Also, this being the final mountain stage, there are a couple of major GC contenders who might go all-in if they're not in yellow at the start of this stage (I don't think I have to mention their names, but they start with C and N).
Stage 19: Maubourget - Pays du Val d'Adour > Bergerac 208.5 kms
Coming right after the Pyrenees, I think an early breakway will take this. Otherwise, sprinters will be back in the limelight, in spite of the Cote de Monbazillac (1.3 kms at 7.6%) 13 kms from the finish.
Stage 20: ITT Bergerac > Périgueux 54 kms
First and only time trial of the Tour. The fact it's the only one made me think it would be totally flat, so I was surprised when I saw the profile. It's very hilly, even if the proportions of the profile may be a little misleading. TT specialists might gain minutes and minutes on pure climbers, but, as I expect the GC competition to be between guys who TT well, I think it will come down to just who has more energy left in the tank. This could also cause some surprises in terms of stage win, as we'll have to see how the likes of Martin and Cancellare will have passed the mountains.
Stage 21: Evry > Paris-Champs-Elysées 137.5 kms
Well, we know this stage by heart, no point in spending too much time writing about it. Great showdown between sprinters in the most beautiful scenery any city can offer.
Final thoughts:
First thing: I like the route. I want to make it clear, because I'm going to follow this statement with a lot of words about what I dislike about it. It features the best first week I've ever seen in any Tour de France, and one of the best I've seen in any GT in recent years. The Giro, whose first half was simply atrocious this year, should take notice.
Since the first part of the race was so well-designed, I'm even more upset about the aspects I didn't like, as Prudhomme & co. were very close to giving us the best TdF route in ages.
The main fault is, in my opinion, the lack of 200+ kilometres mountain stages with multiple climbs. Those are the endurance stages which embody the essence of cycling, in my opinion. I'm not asking for zomegnanesque Gardeccia-like monster stages (though I loved that one), but just for a 200+ kms stage with 3-4 HC/1st cat. climbs. The queen stage is 125 kms long, the final mountain stage 145. My views may be a little extreme, but is kind of sprint-stages are too, on the other hand.
The other complaint I have is that almost all the high mountain stages have a been-there-done-that feeling to me. Of course, Risoul is a new climb for the Tour, but not really an exciting one; Chamrousse and Hautacam are not ultra-classics like Alpe d'Huez, but they're still nothing new. Most of all, with the exception of Palaquit, the other climbs on the Alps and Pyrenees are always the same: Lautaret, Izoard, Portillon, Peyresourde, Azet, Tourmalet.
Anyway, I'll repeat: I like the route. It's fresh, it keeps the race alive for its entire lenghth (and not just for the final 10-12 days, as it used to be in some recent years), it features different kinds of terrains. Still, since so many things were so well crafted, it's a shame that they missed a couple of details that would have made this a wonderful route.
PS: sorry for my poor English and my limited lexicon.