Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

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In many cases, I think Pogačar gets lucky because his opponents adopt the worst possible strategies. Take the last Tour of Flanders: if MVDP had stopped collaborating once Remco was dropped and instead waited for him since he was only seconds behind the two of them could have tag-teamed Pogačar. A 2-on-1 chase would have forced Pogačar to tire himself out before the finish.

Pogačar is incredibly strong, but he isn't unbeatable. In many one-day races, he could have been toppled with smarter tactics. Don't get me wrong: he is the strongest rider, no doubt. But he’s only able to pull off these 50–80km solo wins because his opponents are often tactically incompetent.

To be clear, I’m talking strictly about one-day races. In Grand Tours, there’s realistically no strategy that can stop him given the form he’s shown.

I agree with you 100%. He was indeed lucky in few one day races. I would say WC 24 is the most obvious one. Also i think there were maybe two races where he would get caught but would still win in a sprint. On the other side nobody really knows how strong and how much engine does he have AFTER dropping everybody on climbs. There is only one time when he got caught (Amstel) but he still outsprinted Remco and i think P-R really takes everything out of him. Other than that he proved at RVV 25, LBL 25, WC 25, EC 25, GdL 25, SB 26 and RVV 26 that after last important climb he never goes into red and he control chasing group always around 1 minute behind him. We really never saw in last 2 years how stong he is, if somebody actually stays with him over climb. I really think he has another gear even after that. Ayuso and Del Toro tried it last year and were cooked after Mount Kigali.

 

[GdL]

You talk like MVP and Remco are teammates lol. It's irrelevant for MVP to lose to Remco or Pogacar.

No, but they had a clear mutual interest in collaborating. MVDP is naturally faster than Remco in a sprint, and he proved he was the stronger of the two at Flanders since Remco was the one who got dropped.

He would have had much better odds by working with Remco. Remco had no better option anyway. Having seen what Pogačar was capable of in previous editions, MVDP should have known that a 'best vs. best' 1-on-1 battle usually favors the Slovenian in the ToF

Ultimately, it comes down to being realistic and humble. In cycling, as in every other aspect of life, you don't always have to be the strongest to win; it’s perfectly fine to win by being the smartest

 

[GdL]

I agree with you 100%. He was indeed lucky in few one day races. I would say WC 24 is the most obvious one. Also i think there were maybe two races where he would get caught but would still win in a sprint. On the other side nobody really knows how strong and how much engine does he have AFTER dropping everybody on climbs. There is only one time when he got caught (Amstel) but he still outsprinted Remco and i think P-R really takes everything out of him. Other than that he proved at RVV 25, LBL 25, WC 25, EC 25, GdL 25, SB 26 and RVV 26 that after last important climb he never goes into red and he control chasing group always around 1 minute behind him. We really never saw in last 2 years how stong he is, if somebody actually stays with him over climb. I really think he has another gear even after that. Ayuso and Del Toro tried it last year and were cooked after Mount Kigali.

You're right, we can't know for sure and we can only guess and speculate.
But a better strategy from his opponents may have allowed them and us to test more Pogacar's limits

 

[canina82]

No, but they had a clear mutual interest in collaborating. MVDP is naturally faster than Remco in a sprint, and he proved he was the stronger of the two at Flanders since Remco was the one who got dropped.

He would have had much better odds by working with Remco. Remco had no better option anyway. Having seen what Pogačar was capable of in previous editions, MVDP should have known that a 'best vs. best' 1-on-1 battle usually favors the Slovenian in the ToF

Ultimately, it comes down to being realistic and humble. In cycling, as in every other aspect of life, you don't always have to be the strongest to win; it’s perfectly fine to win by being the smartest

They are not teammates and this changes everything. If MVP didn't work at all, Remco would comeback and then, let's put a scenario where Remco attacks and no one responds. Are you telling me Pogacar would work with MVP on his wheel all the time? Of course, he wouldn't and MVP would lose the race if he did that.
So the only realistic scenario for MVP is working (but less) with Pogacar and try to conserve energy in order to follow Pogacar later.

 

[canina82]

In many cases, I think Pogačar gets lucky because his opponents adopt the worst possible strategies. Take the last Tour of Flanders: if MVDP had stopped collaborating once Remco was dropped and instead waited for him since he was only seconds behind the two of them could have tag-teamed Pogačar. A 2-on-1 chase would have forced Pogačar to tire himself out before the finish.

Pogačar is incredibly strong, but he isn't unbeatable. In many one-day races, he could have been toppled with smarter tactics. Don't get me wrong: he is the strongest rider, no doubt. But he’s only able to pull off these 50–80km solo wins because his opponents are often tactically incompetent.

To be clear, I’m talking strictly about one-day races. In Grand Tours, there’s realistically no strategy that can stop him given the form he’s shown.

These 50-80km solo wins happens because he is so much stronger physically. It's very rare to find a race where he could have lost if his opponents worked better.
I will show what happened in his last 2 solos.

2026 SB - UAE put such a strong pace, they were all cooked even before Pogacar's attack. Seixas went over his limit and in 15 km, he lost 1' (and he didn't softpedalling, he was clearly suffering). All others (except Del Toro) were more than 1'30" behind. At this point, they were all "dead".

2025 WC - he could have won this race with a 2' gap if he really wanted... time gaps in the end show how much stronger he is.

I genuinely think the only race where he could have been caught if the chase worked better is the 2024 WC.

 

[Coppi-Bartali]

They are managed by Flanders Classics now? and this is what One Cycling would have looked like. (And they do the men's and women's stages on the same day).

It really hurts my eyes to see a route map with a bunch of isolated loops instead of something more connected.

Yes.

What strikes me is the lack of organization in the Swiss races. You go to the Tour Suisse's X account and the last post is from December 2015 when Pogacar announced his participation. Before that, there was a post from September 2015. They haven't even bothered to put the route there. Tour Romandie organization is similar.
For being two of the seven historic stage races, they are a disaster.

 

[Berniece]

So the only realistic scenario for MVP is working (but less) with Pogacar and try to conserve energy in order to follow Pogacar later.

Which means Evenepoel would have come back... It's the same result.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Which means Evenepoel would have come back... It's the same result.

I don't think Evenepoel coming back would've changed much. He lost distance every time on cobbled climbs and would've been dropped like a stone by the decisive Pogacar's attack (or earlier than that).

 

[canina82]

I don't think Evenepoel coming back would've changed much. He lost distance every time on cobbled climbs and would've been dropped like a stone by the decisive Pogacar's attack (or earlier than that).

Of course not, Remco was 2" behind. A rider with something left (specially a world class rouleur) closes this gap easily. He was clearly on the limit, let's not forget he lost 12" in Koppenberg, 31" in Kwaremont so even if he came back, Pogacar would just smoke him. The difference between Pogacar and Remco was bigger than just a 1'10" at the finish line.

 

[Berniece]

I don't think Evenepoel coming back would've changed much. He lost distance every time on cobbled climbs and would've been dropped like a stone by the decisive Pogacar's attack (or earlier than that).

Depends when he joined. I think it could've changed a lot. Evenepoel wouldn't have lost 30s on that last Kwaremont if he didn't have to chase for 40km's against 2 riders and a motor. So I would think he only loses 10-15s. MVDP waits, and they try to get Pogacar back.

It doesn't matter the race went how it went, if MVDP wants to win Flanders against Pogacar he has to race more intelligent. We'll see if that ever happens.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Depends when he joined. I think it could've changed a lot. Evenepoel wouldn't have lost 30s on that last Kwaremont if he didn't have to chase for 40km's against 2 riders and a motor. So I would think he only loses 10-15s. MVDP waits, and they try to get Pogacar back.

It doesn't matter the race went how it went, if MVDP wants to win Flanders against Pogacar he has to race more intelligent. We'll see if that ever happens.

Evenepoel would've likely yoyo'ed 2 or 3 times instead of just staying with them. He was too inferior to Pogacar on climbs (and also to MVP) and those come backs would've cost him energy as well. He would have been distanced substantially on the last Kwaremont Paterberg combo. Pogacar was super strong until the end, easily distancing MVP when the elastic snapped. It was really a demonstration of brutal power.

 

[Berniece]

Evenepoel would've likely yoyo'ed 2 or 3 times instead of just staying with them. He was too inferior to Pogacar on climbs (and also to MVP) and those come backs would've cost him energy as well. He would have been distanced substantially on the last Kwaremont Paterberg combo. Pogacar was super strong until the end, easily distancing MVP when the elastic snapped. It was really a demonstration of brutal power.

I agree that he would've been dropped every time, I just think that he would've also come back without MVDP and motors helping Pogacar. Maybe not after the last Kwaremonit/Paterberg combo, that I just don't know for sure. Could still be that Pogacar won that solo

 

[jotafap]

There is absolutely no realistic scenario (excluding a flat tire or a crash) where Remco could have been with Pog by the end of Flanders, no matter how many if's you consider.

 

[the asian]

Both Swiss races are in a financial crisis . Romandie is without a title sponsor and four World Tour TEams have opted out of it.

cyclingflash.com/news/four-worldteams-skip-tour-of-romandie

 

[canina82]

There is absolutely no realistic scenario (excluding a flat tire or a crash) where Remco could have been with Pog by the end of Flanders, no matter how many if's you consider.

It's just unreal how Remco keeps being overrated, not only in stage races but also in classics (even if It's far less than stage races). The difference in the cobbled bergs was enormous, even in mariaborrestraat, the diference in speed between Pogacar and Remco was immense. Someone even considering Remco as a threat to Pogacar after what happened in the paterberg, is not thinking well enough.
Pogacar gained 31" in Kwaremont to Remco (3' climb).

 

[Berniece]

Pogacar gained 31" in Kwaremont to Remco (3' climb).

After chasing 3 guys for 40km's... It's unreal how Pogacar fans keep ignoring any context to a race

 

[Coppi-Bartali]

After chasing 3 guys for 40km's... It's unreal how Pogacar fans keep ignoring any context to a race

Man, yesterday you were comparing Pidcock's sprint in Catalunya with San Remo's sprint, ignoring the context...

 

[Berniece]

Man, yesterday you were comparing Pidcock's sprint in Catalunya with San Remco's sprint, ignoring the context...

And I can remember me saying afterwards, indeed the comparison wasn't great. You see how that works.

 

[canina82]

Dropping his girlfriend might not be a good idea.

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[Coppi-Bartali]

Dropping his girlfriend might not be a good idea.

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But he can't drop Cosnefroy.

 

[canina82]

Is there any chance he attacks before la Redoute? Specially when we look to his team and the lack of firepower for the hills.

 

[vappa]

Is there any chance he attacks before la Redoute? Specially when we look to his team and the lack of firepower for the hills.

I would think they'd try to follow the formula that has clearly worked in the past, if he gets in a good position for Redoute and an all out leadout by Cosnefroy I don't see how anyone can do anything about it. Now if *** hits the fan earlier, the race might be opened sooner but I don't see him being the one who does it

 

[canina82]

I would think they'd try to follow the formula that has clearly worked in the past, if he gets in a good position for Redoute and an all out leadout by Cosnefroy I don't see how anyone can do anything about it. Now if *** hits the fan earlier, the race might be opened sooner but I don't see him being the one who does it

Cosnefroy is not that good in LBL. At least he always looked better in the past in races like AGR where hills are shorter.
Laengen is also a dead weight in this race, Rune is not good enough and Wellens is far from his best shape. Novak and Sivakov will have to do monster pulls tbh.

 

[vappa]

Cosnefroy is not that good in LBL. At least he always looked better in the past in races like AGR where hills are shorter.
Laengen is also a dead weight in this race, Rune is not good enough and Wellens is far from his best shape. Novak and Sivakov will have to do monster pulls tbh.

I think you're overreacting. Rune and Vegard have to pull first 4 hours or so, they can for sure do that, until Cote de Wanne at 170km the terrain is fairly easy. Novak has always been good in LBL, Sivakov is also showing some better shape now. Wellens I agree is not great right now but they could just use him earlier when the pace isn't super difficult. And Cosnefroy doesn't need to be very good, he just has to do a leadout on Redoute, nothing else. Pogacar's team never uses all 6 (or 7) doms for some reason

 

[canina82]

I think you're overreacting. Rune and Vegard have to pull first 4 hours or so, they can for sure do that, until Cote de Wanne at 170km the terrain is fairly easy. Novak has always been good in LBL, Sivakov is also showing some better shape now. Wellens I agree is not great right now but they could just use him earlier when the pace isn't super difficult. And Cosnefroy doesn't need to be very good, he just has to do a leadout on Redoute, nothing else. Pogacar's team never uses all 6 (or 7) doms for some reason

I don't have any doubt they can pull for 4 hours. The question is: How hard can they pull? Wellens in the climbs is not looking good so they can put the tempo until la Redoute but probably the race will be soft or not tough enough.