TDF 2018 Predictions

[Blanco]

Re: Re:

Tejay a better prospect than Porte in the Tour?

Come on people! Porte has also been number five in the Tour and is a much, much better rider than Tejay!

And yes, he may end up crashing out but they should definitely not be backing Tejay, that should be obvious for everyone and his dog.

At this point it makes as much sense since we know Porte has problems staying on his bike for 3 weeks and Tejay will have massive losses on one day. Neither one has really proven they can handle a GT.

Define "handle a GT" ? Tejay has some high finishes in 2012 and 2014 I think he handled a GT those years? But really I think it is now obvious Tejay is an early bloomer who is now in slow decline. But he will be great support for Porte in the mountains.

I think Porte showed in 2016 he can handle a GT? If not for early Tour mishaps not his fault he would have finished 2nd otherwise. Is 2nd handling a GT? Last year Porte was going well until the crash. But that massive crash might be a blessing in disguise. It means he had a late buildup this season and will be fresh and building form at the perfect time. Last season he was on fire from January (TDU). If Porte stays on his bike he can beat Quintana and Bardet. Nibali is hard to predict. Froome is the favourite of course

Porte ALWAYS has some issue that takes him out of contention. Tejay hasn't been able to handle the pressure of GTs for several years.

Froome is the UCI's golden boy and they've already basically told us with their decision that he will win and there's not really any reason to bother racing.

No he's not, Lappy doesn't like him at all, but WADA saved his ass. After all, Reedie is British, no?

 

[rick james]

Re: Re:

Tejay a better prospect than Porte in the Tour?

Come on people! Porte has also been number five in the Tour and is a much, much better rider than Tejay!

And yes, he may end up crashing out but they should definitely not be backing Tejay, that should be obvious for everyone and his dog.

At this point it makes as much sense since we know Porte has problems staying on his bike for 3 weeks and Tejay will have massive losses on one day. Neither one has really proven they can handle a GT.

Define "handle a GT" ? Tejay has some high finishes in 2012 and 2014 I think he handled a GT those years? But really I think it is now obvious Tejay is an early bloomer who is now in slow decline. But he will be great support for Porte in the mountains.

I think Porte showed in 2016 he can handle a GT? If not for early Tour mishaps not his fault he would have finished 2nd otherwise. Is 2nd handling a GT? Last year Porte was going well until the crash. But that massive crash might be a blessing in disguise. It means he had a late buildup this season and will be fresh and building form at the perfect time. Last season he was on fire from January (TDU). If Porte stays on his bike he can beat Quintana and Bardet. Nibali is hard to predict. Froome is the favourite of course

Porte ALWAYS has some issue that takes him out of contention. Tejay hasn't been able to handle the pressure of GTs for several years.

Froome is the UCI's golden boy and they've already basically told us with their decision that he will win and there's not really any reason to bother racing.

No he's not, Lappy doesn't like him at all, but WADA saved his ***. After all, Reedie is British, no?

Scottish

 

[DNP-Old]

Yellow: Alejandro Valverde
Green: Fernando Gaviria
White: Guillaume Martin
KOM: Warren Barguil

 

[42x16ss]

Re: Re:

[quote="
At this point it makes as much sense since we know Porte has problems staying on his bike for 3 weeks and Tejay will have massive losses on one day. Neither one has really proven they can handle a GT.

Define "handle a GT" ? Tejay has some high finishes in 2012 and 2014 I think he handled a GT those years? But really I think it is now obvious Tejay is an early bloomer who is now in slow decline. But he will be great support for Porte in the mountains.

I think Porte showed in 2016 he can handle a GT? If not for early Tour mishaps not his fault he would have finished 2nd otherwise. Is 2nd handling a GT? Last year Porte was going well until the crash. But that massive crash might be a blessing in disguise. It means he had a late buildup this season and will be fresh and building form at the perfect time. Last season he was on fire from January (TDU). If Porte stays on his bike he can beat Quintana and Bardet. Nibali is hard to predict. Froome is the favourite of course

Porte ALWAYS has some issue that takes him out of contention. Tejay hasn't been able to handle the pressure of GTs for several years.

Froome is the UCI's golden boy and they've already basically told us with their decision that he will win and there's not really any reason to bother racing.

No he's not, Lappy doesn't like him at all, but WADA saved his ***. After all, Reedie is British, no?

Scottish

So yes.

 

[ontheroad]

1. Quintana
2. Nibali
3. Porte

Green: Sagan
Mountains: Majka
Young: Bernal

Froome to blow up completely after racing the Giro.

 

[Bolder]

Re: Re:

Koronin: If you ever roll a dice or play roulette (or have a simple understanding of statistics) you will know luck balances out over time. Porte then should be due good luck. If he stays on his bike I think he can podium (at least). Statistically the chances are he will not crash.

Believe me, I hope he can finally get through a GT without any issues of any type and then we can actually see what he's capable of doing. That would be nice. His team will put him in great shape after the TTT, plus he is fairly good at TTs.

Thanks better . Yes, don't get me wrong, I still have lingering doubts based upon history but if we put bad luck aside and look at his recent past and circumstances of his buildup since his return after his crash I think Porte looks very promising. The word going around on Porte at the moment says similar too from what I know.

I hope his bad luck doesn't show up in the Tour. I really do. I don't dislike him, and actually would like to see him do well. He also won Suiss without expending unnecessary energy or having any bad luck, which is a good start. I just don't trust it enough to say put him on a fantasy team. Hope he proves that decision wrong.

I don't think it's bad luck. You have to be aware of situations, you can avoid flat tires, crashing etc with anticipation. Sure, maybe there are a few unavoidable situations, but to have it happen again and again means that Porte is just not as good at three-week races as others with similar ability. I think most would agree that mere skill/strength will not win you a GT -- I would call the special ingredient "race management" -- the ability to see the race holistically. Froome seems to excel at this.

Say what you want about Lance, but he won 7 freakin' TdFs in a row, without any "bad luck." To finish first you have to first finish.

 

[krakenKE]

Yellow: Nibali
Green: Sagan
Polka Dot: Majka
White: Bernal
First yellow and most stages: Groenewegen
TTT: BMC
ITT: Thomas

 

[sprints n stones]

Yellow - Quintana
Green - Sagan
White - Bernal
KoM - Quintana

 

[markene2]

Nibali will win it, Zakarin will podium.

Froome crashes out before we get to the mountains

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

Nibali will win it, Zakarin will podium.

Froome crashes out before we get to the mountains

Hope is a wonderful thing. I would be surprised by any of that happening. Never say never.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Yellow: Quintana
2. Froome
3. Dumoulin
White: Bernal
Polka Dot: Bernal

 

[Old&slow]

Of the big 5 favorites for the race 4 are left and in a position to win in Thomas, Froome, Roglic and Dumoulin.

The only big favorite not left in contention is Porte.

So far this tour has gone as expected.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Roglic was a bigger favorite then Nibali? That is crazy.

 

[Old&slow]

Re:

Roglic was a bigger favorite then Nibali? That is crazy.

Yes, if you looked at the Par Cours or read my prediction in this thread you would have known that Nibali stood no chance. The only riders with a chance this tour are those that can ITT and have a team that can TTT.

 

[Chomsky]

Re:

In terms of GC the winner will need three things:
1. A strong TTT team
2. The ability to do a good ITT
3. Not losing massive time on stage 9 or on any of the 3 MTFs.

I only see 6 riders that have a possibility of winning
Froome
Thomas
Bernal
Porte
Roglic
Dumoulin

While Porte is the clear favorite odds are he will crash out or get left behind on the cobbles.

Bravo. I assume you were kidding on Bernal even if he was arguably the 2nd strongest climber in this Tour.

In a forum that is mostly dedicated to posters telling other how smart they think they are it is nice to see someone post with actual knowledge. Quite a rarity on the CN forums. You nailed it!

 

[Tank Engine]

Re: Re:

Groenwegan is my prediction to be the star of this years tour. To bad for Ewan not getting included.

In terms of GC the winner will need three things:
1. A strong TTT team
2. The ability to do a good ITT
3. Not losing massive time on stage 9 or on any of the 3 MTFs.

I only see 6 riders that have a possibility of winning
Froome
Thomas
Bernal
Porte
Roglic
Dumoulin


My prediction then is:

1. Porte
2. Thomas
3. Froome
4. Bernal
5. Quintana

While Porte is the clear favorite odds are he will crash out or get left behind on the cobbles. But I feel inclined to pick him to barely hang on.

But with the TTT and Skys cobble team this tour could easily come down to which sky rider does the best ITT with no one else close.

My hope is to see Cav win a stage but I doubt he even gets a top 5. I am thinking there is a good chance EBH takes over as a sprinter after a few stages for DDD.

Never ever underestimate Nibali

3 Sky riders in top 5. :surprised: :lol:

Yes, but old & slow clearly wins the prize for the most accurate predictions.

 

[Old&slow]

Re: Re:

In terms of GC the winner will need three things:
1. A strong TTT team
2. The ability to do a good ITT
3. Not losing massive time on stage 9 or on any of the 3 MTFs.

I only see 6 riders that have a possibility of winning
Froome
Thomas
Bernal
Porte
Roglic
Dumoulin

While Porte is the clear favorite odds are he will crash out or get left behind on the cobbles.

Bravo. I assume you were kidding on Bernal even if he was arguably the 2nd strongest climber in this Tour.

In a forum that is mostly dedicated to posters telling other how smart they think they are it is nice to see someone post with actual knowledge. Quite a rarity on the CN forums. You nailed it!

Thank you for the kind words although I would disagree with your implication that posters here are lacking knowledge. There are lots of extremely smart posters here who have a lot more cycling knowledge than me. The problem is there is so much hate and bias in this forum that most of these knowledgeable posters never actually see the races they are watching because their view is so clouded by bias. Sadly these smart posters have already formulated their opinion and just watch the race to confirm their opinions. Then they log here and attack others who have alternate viewpoints while confirming each others misguided biased opinions perpetuating stupidity and ignorance while driving away anyone wanting actual discussion.

I have never seen a forum as hateful as this one. Maybe it's just the loud few but it seems this forum is driven almost exclusively by hate of others with moderators in full support. Much like a model copied by Trump supporters. Ignore reality, hate others, call others who disagree names, create and perpetuate your own self confirming news sources with your own parallel view of reality and most importantly hate everyone else.

Ignoring my editorial comments above the race was quite boring given the poor design and came in almost exactly as expected. Very few decisive stages and MTFs strongly favors the time trialists and with 5 riders being greatly superior in the ITT to the rest the result makes sense. The GC race was pre-determined form the start to come down to those 5 riders. Of the five big pre-race favorites only Porte was left out. I have to give Dumoulin great credit. I thought he would have showed some signs of fatigue if not a total collapase. Bernal gets mad credit to. He is a beast. He can win the Tour next year or another GT. Hopefully he will spend the next year refining his time trialing.

 

[Chomsky]

Re: Re:

In terms of GC the winner will need three things:
1. A strong TTT team
2. The ability to do a good ITT
3. Not losing massive time on stage 9 or on any of the 3 MTFs.

I only see 6 riders that have a possibility of winning
Froome
Thomas
Bernal
Porte
Roglic
Dumoulin

While Porte is the clear favorite odds are he will crash out or get left behind on the cobbles.

Bravo. I assume you were kidding on Bernal even if he was arguably the 2nd strongest climber in this Tour.

In a forum that is mostly dedicated to posters telling other how smart they think they are it is nice to see someone post with actual knowledge. Quite a rarity on the CN forums. You nailed it!

Thank you for the kind words although I would disagree with your implication that posters here are lacking knowledge. There are lots of extremely smart posters here who have a lot more cycling knowledge than me. The problem is there is so much hate and bias in this forum that most of these knowledgeable posters never actually see the races they are watching because their view is so clouded by bias. Sadly these smart posters have already formulated their opinion and just watch the race to confirm their opinions. Then they log here and attack others who have alternate viewpoints while confirming each others misguided biased opinions perpetuating stupidity and ignorance while driving away anyone wanting actual discussion.

I have never seen a forum as hateful as this one. Maybe it's just the loud few but it seems this forum is driven almost exclusively by hate of others with moderators in full support. Much like a model copied by Trump supporters. Ignore reality, hate others, call others who disagree names, create and perpetuate your own self confirming news sources with your own parallel view of reality and most importantly hate everyone else.

Ignoring my editorial comments above the race was quite boring given the poor design and came in almost exactly as expected. Very few decisive stages and MTFs strongly favors the time trialists and with 5 riders being greatly superior in the ITT to the rest the result makes sense. The GC race was pre-determined form the start to come down to those 5 riders. Of the five big pre-race favorites only Porte was left out. I have to give Dumoulin great credit. I thought he would have showed some signs of fatigue if not a total collapase. Bernal gets mad credit to. He is a beast. He can win the Tour next year or another GT. Hopefully he will spend the next year refining his time trialing.

While I agree with you about the hate and that is a very unfriendly place I think you go to far in comparing childish posters to Trump supporters. Trump does real damage and harm to the world this is just cycling and the age of the internet where children are looking for boundaries and discipline. Neither of which the internet can provide.

But yes the nastiness of the posters here is why I stay away from these forums but at the same time the spectacle of the masses engaging in such bad behavior is why I come here. A paradox which makes me feel dirty for coming here but then keeps me coming back.