Team Pursuit

[Ferminal]

And enough hype about the Australian TP team already. 'Two fastest IP riders in history' my ***, the track conditions were clearly a huge factor in those times and Wiggo would have been just as quick (if not quicker) if he'd ridden there. Team GB are the world record holders and reigning champs, Australia's best time this year was a second and a half slower than GB's best and three and a half short of the world record mark. I don't see how they can be called favourites.

1) The track was fast, yes, as was the track in Adelaide the year before. Yet Wiggins and Thomas have ridden hundreds of 4000m and never come close. Wiggins hasn't done a serious IP in over 2 years so there's no point saying he would have done better. Phinney, Bobridge and Thomas are the top3 IP'ers in the world, period. I don't care how fast the times were, the times themselves are irrelevant, it's more the performance, the development, the improvement. Bobridge has ridden 4:15s, 4:14s before, so even if you write the 4:11 off he's still faster than Wiggins.

2) GB are the reigning champs and world record holders - but failed to win the last two worlds, failed to replicate their Beijing time. Yes the team hasn't been the same - so let's look at the teams rather than medals.

3) By "this year" do you mean "last year"? Last year the fastest time was Australia in Delhi - 3:55.421, which included finishing with 3 men and splitting up a bit early as they had to pass NZ. This is the quickest time since GB did a 3'54" in Nov. 2009 Manchester.

Rather than just looking at who won the last Olympics (or who didn't in Australia's case) I'd rather look at how the teams have changed. The only survivor from the dismal Australian quartet is Bobridge, who was 19 in Beijing. I assume that Clancy/Wiggins/Thomas are still part of your best 4 for London, this is good or bad depending on how you look at it.

The way I see it GB can't improve too much on that performance. Wiggins was in his "prime" then, he may be able to match it, but improve? Plus if he is coming off a TdF and not 2-3months track prep then that's all the more reason to doubt where he will be, relative to Beijing. Clancy would be up, not so sure on Thomas, should be up but depends on the TdF too. I'm not quite sure who the 4th is, it would be between Kennaugh/Tennant/Burke? All are impressive.

Australia on the other hand, well it's no point looking at Beijing other than to say Bobridge will be 23. Look at the last two years and the new faces, and where they will be in 18months or so. Meyer, 23, probably not much improvement left and may not be doing the TP if he does the Omnium too. Dennis, 19, was 18 in Copenhagen, will be 21 in London, showing solid improvement in IP. Parker, 18, was 18 in Delhi, fastest ever over 3000m as an U19, will be more big leaps by the time he is 20 in London. The next men in - Howard (possible sub for Meyer) is 21, part of the qualifying in Copenhagen and the silver in 2009. Hepburn, was 18 as part of the gold team last year.

We will know in a couple of weeks just how good the Australians are... If they are 3'55" then I may have to change my opinion, but I think they will be below that, and well on their way for at least a 3'53" in London. The winner will have to break the world record.

 

[The Hitch]

THe race is in london though. Be it clinic or otherwise the host country always overperforms.

 

[lorijoy]

Ausie tt

1) The track was fast, yes, as was the track in Adelaide the year before. Yet Wiggins and Thomas have ridden hundreds of 4000m and never come close. Wiggins hasn't done a serious IP in over 2 years so there's no point saying he would have done better. Phinney, Bobridge and Thomas are the top3 IP'ers in the world, period. I don't care how fast the times were, the times themselves are irrelevant, it's more the performance, the development, the improvement. Bobridge has ridden 4:15s, 4:14s before, so even if you write the 4:11 off he's still faster than Wiggins.

2) GB are the reigning champs and world record holders - but failed to win the last two worlds, failed to replicate their Beijing time. Yes the team hasn't been the same - so let's look at the teams rather than medals.

3) By "this year" do you mean "last year"? Last year the fastest time was Australia in Delhi - 3:55.421, which included finishing with 3 men and splitting up a bit early as they had to pass NZ. This is the quickest time since GB did a 3'54" in Nov. 2009 Manchester.

Rather than just looking at who won the last Olympics (or who didn't in Australia's case) I'd rather look at how the teams have changed. The only survivor from the dismal Australian quartet is Bobridge, who was 19 in Beijing. I assume that Clancy/Wiggins/Thomas are still part of your best 4 for London, this is good or bad depending on how you look at it.

The way I see it GB can't improve too much on that performance. Wiggins was in his "prime" then, he may be able to match it, but improve? Plus if he is coming off a TdF and not 2-3months track prep then that's all the more reason to doubt where he will be, relative to Beijing. Clancy would be up, not so sure on Thomas, should be up but depends on the TdF too. I'm not quite sure who the 4th is, it would be between Kennaugh/Tennant/Burke? All are impressive.

Australia on the other hand, well it's no point looking at Beijing other than to say Bobridge will be 23. Look at the last two years and the new faces, and where they will be in 18months or so. Meyer, 23, probably not much improvement left and may not be doing the TP if he does the Omnium too. Dennis, 19, was 18 in Copenhagen, will be 21 in London, showing solid improvement in IP. Parker, 18, was 18 in Delhi, fastest ever over 3000m as an U19, will be more big leaps by the time he is 20 in London. The next men in - Howard (possible sub for Meyer) is 21, part of the qualifying in Copenhagen and the silver in 2009. Hepburn, was 18 as part of the gold team last year.

We will know in a couple of weeks just how good the Australians are... If they are 3'55" then I may have to change my opinion, but I think they will be below that, and well on their way for at least a 3'53" in London. The winner will have to break the world record.

Have to agree, as I said yesterday sour grapes. BRING ON THE OLYMPICS and settle this rubbish once and for all.

 

[oldcrank]

THe race is in london though. Be it clinic or otherwise the host country always overperforms.

That certainly wasn't the case at the 2002 Manchester Commonwealth
Games where Australia humiliated England across the board in cycling.
Aussies love beating England/GB more than anyone else, in fact the
Australian Olympic Committee is already reminding athletes in all
sports not to focus on only beating the GB teams/athletes.