The Battle for Third

[ericthesportsman6]

It's clear now that Andy Schleck and AC will be battling it out on the Tourmalet for yellow, but what about third? There are a number of candidates, but personally I would say Sammy Sanchez. Anyways, share your thoughts.

 

[Anonymous]

Menchov....

 

[ak-zaaf]

Menchov prolly. Kinda hope Sanchez makes it though.

 

[crispy]

I'd like to see Levi up there but I don't think he can overtake all 3 guys in front of him (and maybe not any of them). Menchov has been there before - I think he'll do it again.

 

[powerste]

Would love the irony of Van den Broeck on the podium in light of Evans' situation.

But I think it will boil down to who can hold the wheels of AC/AS for the longest. That'll be Menchov IMO.

 

[kurtinsc]

I think it will be Menchov.

For Levi to get third, he's got to hope that some of the others still feel like they can win it.

If they do, he could potentially do what Lance did on Grand Bornand last year... wait for the leaders to attack and ignore them, simply following the guys racing for third but doing no work himself. Once they blow themselves out chasing... attack when they are weak.

Basically he could get third if he races for the podium rather then for the win... and the others DO race for the win and blow up trying for it.


But to be honest... I don't think it will happen.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Menchov has the advantage he has Gesink there, who's equal, probably even a tad better, uphill and can drag him forward.

Sanchez has waisted a lot of power today riding alone in between groups. And if that happens again I can see him having a total off-day somewhere.

It would not be the first time. So far Samu Sanchez always did have an off-day in a grand tour. Last years Vuelta he lost over a minute on a, seemingly, doable stage for him..
If he doesn't have a bad day and keeps going like this, he'll probably take that 3rd place.

Leipheimer is more or less the same story as Menchov, and he can probably hook on the Gesink express like he did today. If he can keep that up, he'll be dangerous with the 51km time trial.

For Vandenbroeck, I really don't see a way to the podium. He's a tad worse climber than the others, and to make things worse his time trial isn't exactly a weapon either. He would need an escape or a major improvement in form. If he has a super 3rd week where he improves anything is possible. But I think he is at his plateau at the moment.

And finally for Gesink it's nearly impossible, since he has to make up 2 minutes on 3rd place as it is and then he needs to catch another 2 minutes to be safe for the time trial.
Probably a few of the ones in front of him will have a bad/lesser day but not all.

As for Basso, Kreuziger, Rodriguez and co I think the podium is out of the question unless they are lucky enough to get in some kind of breakway where Saxo/Astana don't care.

 

[The Hitch]

samu has shown 2 stages in a row he can climb better than the others. I think he will do so again on the tourmalet, and hang on in the tt.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

If they do, he could potentially do what Lance did on Grand Bornand last year... wait for the leaders to attack and ignore them, simply following the guys racing for third but doing no work himself. Once they blow themselves out chasing... attack when they are weak.

I agree with your lack of expectation here, because one of the keys to what Lance did on the Colombière was that he had teammates up the road, therefore the onus was on Wiggins (and Vande Velde) to do all the work. Leipheimer may well incur the ire of other riders for attempting to do this unless Radioshack put people in the break of the day, and with no time bonuses GC riders won't care about Paulinho or Muravyev being up the road and poetentially winning the stage (especially since in our scenario Andy and Alberto are attacking between them anyway), and we saw today that the likes of Horner and Brajkovic still won't be let off the leash.

 

[dancing on pedals]

i voted for Basso/Kreuziger mainly because my pre tour prediction was Contador, Schleck and Basso - i hope the Liquigas lads are (as they did in the Giro) playing a waiting game - its loking unlikely but I still think the general GC has a lot of twists before we reach Paris ..
thanks

 

[red_flanders]

Voted for Menchov. I don't think he'll have a bad day and he'll TT his way to third.

 

[hrotha]

I think if Menchov was going to have one of those silly Menchov days when he just can't be bothered, he would have had it already, so he has a good shot at the podium.

 

[top_tenz_finish]

Menchov definitely and to get a lot closer to the top two than many would think.

 

[Christian]

Has Euskaltel ever had a guy on the podium? That would be pretty cool for them.

I think it's gonna be Menchov though. Either way a guy in orange.

 

[Angliru]

I can't separate my heart from my mind so I'm just going to say Sammie Sanchez because I've always been a big Euskatel/Basque/Spanish climber fan and as someone stated, having an Euskatel rider on the podium would be fantastic for cycling in that region. Plus I have a feeling that Igor Anton will have a great Vuelta and if Sammie podiums at the Tour they (Euskatel and Anton) will be extra motivated.

My mind says Denis Menchov, which I would also be quite cool with too. Hope he avoids the usual bad day that usually ruins his chances. He deserves it.

 

[2wheels]

Though I nearly vomit to even think it, Leech-heimer may be the likeliest-- because Lance's best remaining shot at any prestige is "helping Levi make the podium"; being an all-around team player as we know him to be. Add in sponsor pressure and a strong supporting cast of riders; Levi knows he damn well better ride for his life. If he gets to the TT within a minute of podium, he might make it. Yuck.

 

[nvpacchi]

2008 Tour de France Stage 20 ITT-53km

1 Stefan Schumacher (Ger) Gerolsteiner 1.03.50
6 Denis Menchov (Rus) Rabobank 1.55
21 Samuel Sanchez Gonzalez (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi 3.14

13 seconds ahead now, I feel Sanchez has the ability to put another minute into Menchov before the ITT, for the same buffer as two years ago.

Today Sanchez was 35s ahead of Menchov group at the top of the final climb, and then put another 35s on the group on the descent and flat finish(with a cramped leg nonetheless). After today's effort I feel Sanchez will gut his way to the podium.

 

[nesocip]

Samu takes it. I expect him to get stronger in the 3rd week (relative to other guys of course), get a 1 min buffer on Menchov before the TT, and hold him on by a handful of seconds in the end.

I think Euskaltel's best tdf gc finish was 5th by Zubeldia (after some disqualifications). Too lazy to go search for it now.

 

[blaxland]

Samuel(Flysdownhill) Sanchez....

 

[Pedaaldanser]

I find it hard to believe any of the listed people is going to make the podium, but logically one of them will have to

I guess Menchov seems to be the most likely at this point.

 

[ericthesportsman6]

I find it hard to believe any of the listed people is going to make the podium, but logically one of them will have to

I guess Menchov seems to be the most likely at this point.

Explain? That's a list of some of the best GT talent in the world.

 

[Climbing]

Vincenzo Nibali will make the podium.
No, really I believe many in this list could crack completely, so it is hard to predict.
I mean I see VDB, Luis Leon Sanchez, Rodriguez, Gesink all blowing lots of time somewhere in the third week.
Samuel Sanchez is riding very well, I hope he can continue on this level in third week (not an easy task).
Menchov is running like Basso (without losing time on cobblestones) with the great advantage of his good TT skill, so he must be the best bet for podium.
Basso lost too much time, so his third week will not be enough to recover the time lost (I expected him much more, but I suppose the Giro has been felt in this first week).

 

[danyela]

Menchov... maybe... but if Schleck senior was around it'd be him

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

How come you see Gesink blowing lots of time in the 3rd week. If there is someone who is entirely consistent during a grand tour, it's him. Only way of him losing minutes in the final week is another fall like the Vuelta last year.
He's known at Rabobank for his insane recuperation ability after a stage...

LL Sanchez yeah, he already lost 5 minutes in 1 mountain, ofcourse he's not going to make it

And again VDB, where do you see him losing minutes and blow? He has been super consistent in the Giro where he finished 6th two years ago, and last year he was very consistent in the Tour as well, where he was already without chance for the GC after the fall in the TTT.

It's just based on nothing.

 

[Benotti69]

another 11 stages to go, jeez anything can happen. AC and AS might not even make it to the end the way this tour has panned out so far with so much going down......crashes every day, heat, cramp, bonking riders

anything is possible, nothing is impossible

LA goes of the deep end and gets a gun to waste all the GC favs....