Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[red_flanders]

Yeah, it gets a bit tedious. He was 61.5 during the '22 Vuelta, he was 63 during the '23 Giro. At the start of the TDF he was supposedly 61.5 again. And now he 'd have been 62 with a kilogram less. While he was visually leaner during the TDF than last year's Giro. Blowing smoke again.

Maybe we can finally all realize that no team is putting accurate weights out there, and hasn't since cycling began.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

After the OG, Evenepoel is now 4 wins out of 7 (or 57%) in races longer than 250km. He is now 8 wins out of 21 (or 38%) in races longer than 220km. Pogacar is (5/21) 23% and (9/32) 28%. Van der Poel is (7/26) 27% and (9/35) 26%.

 

[Peyroteo94]

After the OG, Evenepoel is now 4 wins out of 7 (or 57%) in races longer than 250km. He is now 8 wins out of 21 (or 38%) in races longer than 220km. Pogacar is (5/21) 23% and (9/32) 28%. Van der Poel is (7/26) 27% and (9/35) 26%.

Small sample, of course Remco's ratio will drop specially if he starts doing monuments that doesn't suit him like Flanders and MSR. Despite this, it is very impressive.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Small sample, of course Remco's ratio will drop specially if he starts doing monuments that doesn't suit him like Flanders and MSR. Despite this, it is very impressive.

Small sample? He has only one win less than Pogacar in both 250 and 220+km races. Even if he doesn't win any of the amount he has raced less, he'd still be practically tied. He only has to win 1 in 14 and 1 in 11 to tie with Pogacar, the so called best 1 day racer in the world.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Specifically against Pogacar Evenepoel is more favored in de Ronde and Paris Olympic style routes than LBL and Lombardia

No, he isn't (IMHO). In Quickstep, he doesn't have a WVA to mark his main rivals. He would be completely destroyed in Kwaremont By Pogacar.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

No, he isn't (IMHO). In Quickstep, he doesn't have a WVA to mark his main rivals. He would be completely destroyed in Kwaremont By Pogacar.

"destroyed on Kwaremont". Oh no, Pogacar will ride away 15 seconds on Kwaremont, whatever will Evenepoel do (besides catching Pogacar on the flat while twiddling his thumbs, whistling, picking his nose and reading the newspaper).

 

[Peyroteo94]

And there is 0 chance he ever gets away before?

Meanwhile, what is the wincondition in Liege?

Not 0 chance but 1%. No way Pogacar would let Remco go. Do you remember stage 9 of the Tour? Pogacar didn't let Remco gaining more than 15 seconds

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Not 0 chance but 1%. No way Pogacar would let Remco go. Do you remember stage 9 of the Tour? Pogacar didn't let Remco gaining more than 15 seconds

We are talking about 250+km one day races, not 150+km stages in a 3 week race.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

"destroyed on Kwaremont". Oh no, Pogacar will ride away 15 seconds on Kwaremont, whatever will Evenepoel do (besides catching Pogacar on the flat while twiddling his thumbs, whistling, picking his nose and reading the newspaper).

If Remco is 15 seconds slower on Kwaremont, he‘s 100% behind MvdP in whatever scenario this is (except for the riding away with Pogačar beforehand scenario where I just don‘t see how he will win). He still needs to get the other two to look at each other.

 

[Peyroteo94]

We are talking about 250+km one day races, not 150+km stages in a 3 week race.

I wasn't saying Remco would be caught, I was saying Pogacar will not let Remco go away because he knows the danger.

 

[AmRacer]

We are talking about 250+km one day races, not 150+km stages in a 3 week race.

Same same. They won't let the other go, whether they succeed is another thing.

 

[AmRacer]

Pretty sure I remember Evenepoel being allowed a gap in the first place.

Pog looked at Jonas and Jonas told Pog 'You have the yellow'.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Same same. They won't let the other go, whether they succeed is another thing.

It is certainly not the same. In a 250+km race you have to manage your efforts quite differently and think tactically in how/when you will respond or not. Like how Pogacar let Evenepoel go in the break in Wollongong and didn't respond. He thought he was playing the long game, but instead he was playing the losing game. A lot depends on how many domestiques you still have at your disposal. At 130km into a race, you are more likely to have your full team ready to close gaps and bring back breaks for you. At km 200, you could be lucky to have still one teammate with you. It is exactly the reason why i predicted Evenepoel to win the OG.

 

[AmRacer]

It is certainly not the same. In a 250+km race you have to manage your efforts quite differently and think tactically in how/when you will respond or not. Like how Pogacar let Evenepoel go in the break in Wollongong and didn't respond. He thought he was playing the long game, but instead he was playing the losing game. A lot depends on how many domestiques you still have at your disposal. At 130km into a race, you are more likely to have your full team ready to close gaps and bring back breaks for you. At km 200, you could be lucky to have still one teammate with you. It is exactly the reason why i predicted Evenepoel to win the OG.

Pog did many things wrong in 2022, de has learned from that. If either Remco or Tadej is strong enough to pull the other one back is another story.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Pog did many things wrong in 2022, de has learned from that. If either Remco or Tadej is strong enough to pull the other one back is another story.

That goes beyond saying. The point is that responding to an attack in a stage is very different to responding to an attack in a monument. It's in Evenepoel's favor to make it a long hard final with most of the peloton/domestiques gone. Less people to mark him, one moment of being inattentive and he's gone. While the other way around, he can still bring you back even if he gets dropped.

 

[AmRacer]

That goes beyond saying. The point is that responding to an attack in a stage is very different to responding to an attack in a monument. It's in Evenepoel's favor to make it a long hard final with most of the peloton/domestiques gone. Less people to mark him, one moment of being inattentive and he's gone. While the other way around, he can still bring you back even if he gets dropped.

Remco can only bring Tadej back if the route is in Remco's favour, same with Tadej.
The peloton is bullying WvA, denying him the win when he's with Remco.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Remco can only bring Tadej back if the route is in Remco's favour, same with Tadej.
The peloton is bullying WvA, denying him the win when he's with Remco.

We were discussing a scenario where Pogacar drops Evenepoel in RVV on Oude Kwaremont. Imho, this would be a lot less of a deciding factor with all the flat sections still to come, compared to Evenepoel getting a gap on one of the flat sections. The first does not mean race over, the second basically does.

 

[Salvarani]

How many times has Pog been brought back in his solos.

Either one going solo, dropping the other, likely means race over.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I remember Evenepoel closing a 15s gap to Pogacar in the TDF on a flat section, just about a month ago.

 

[Peyroteo94]

I remember Evenepoel closing a 15s gap to Pogacar in the TDF on a flat section, just about a month ago.

Where? San Luca? He came back because Vingegaard didn't want to work with Pogacar.

 

[rghysens]

6.3 doesn't exactly track with Pogacar doing supposedly 6.9 on PdB.

Well, if you take into account that Evenepoel lost almost 3 minutes, and that he may be a bit lighter, it can be.

 

[Berniece]

Where? San Luca? He came back because Vingegaard didn't want to work with Pogacar.

Doesn't really matter, Evenepoel is smaller, and the better TT'er. He'll always have an advantage on the flat sections.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Where? San Luca? He came back because Vingegaard didn't want to work with Pogacar.

Neither did Carapaz. He also brought back the deficit on the flat sections after Galibier. He also closed down Pogacar after Col du Noyer and then attacked himself after which Vingegaard needed 3 teammates to help him keep the gap steady. I think it's no secret anymore that Evenepoel is the best rouleur on the planet? Or are we still going to debate that?

 

[Peyroteo94]

Neither did Carapaz. He also brought back the deficit on the flat sections after Galibier. He also closed down Pogacar after Col du Noyer and then attacked himself after which Vingegaard needed 3 teammates to help him keep the gap steady. I think it's no secret anymore that Evenepoel is the best rouleur on the planet? Or are we still going to debate that?

Better to wait for worlds to see if he can keep up with Pogacar or even drop him.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Better to wait for worlds to see if he can keep up with Pogacar or even drop him.

What does that have to do with anything. Worlds is not like RVV and the parcours doesn't particularly favor the best rouleur.