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The "We need to give Matteo Trentin a thread before he becomes world champion" thread

It's utterly absurd that this guy has no thread yet.

One of the best riders in the world, versatile, sympathetic, amazing Flemish accent while speaking English despite being Italian, and the captain of the Italian world's team on a course that fits him like a glove and is very similar to last year's Euros where he won by out-sprinting no other than Mathieu van der Poel and Wout Van Aert in a three-up sprint.

Double winner of Paris-Tours, former holder of the Ruban Jaune, triple Tour stage winner, quadruple Vuelta stage winner, singular Giro stage winner, European Champion, and this year he was competitive in most Flemish classics and Amstel.

He has even managed to not see a reduction in his level despite leaving the QuickStep team.
 
I know he beat vdPoel in a straight sprint to win the Euros, but his sitting up before the line and shrug of the shoulders at the Tour of Britain as Matthieu just rode away from him, at the finish, again, did not say “Imminent World Champion” to me. He needs a lot to go right for him.
 
I know he beat vdPoel in a straight sprint to win the Euros, but his sitting up before the line and shrug of the shoulders at the Tour of Britain as Matthieu just rode away from him, at the finish, again, did not say “Imminent World Champion” to me. He needs a lot to go right for him.
That was an uphill sprint, Van Der Poel's specialty. In a flat sprint I don't think he's slower than VdP
 
I think I had a discussion with tobydawk or Blanco (or perahps somebody else) earlier this year about Trentin.

I don't want to come accross as a hater so I'll start with all the things I like about Trentin. First of all exceptional pro, can be a captain or a domestique, will sacrifice his ambitions if asked to, has kept improving since his first years as a professional and has now established himself as a solid classic rider.
For such a fast rider, he handles the big climbs better than probably anybody. He's good on hills too. He knows how to ride in echeleons and isn't afraid to attack.

Now back to his chances for the Worlds: in my opinion his biggest limit is his sprint after a tough race. I know this sounds crazy but, apart from last year EC (where he was the only one with a leadout), is there any other Classic that he's won from a sprint of more than 3 riders? He's been involved in a few sprints in Monuments and Classics, for instance:
  • Milano Sanremo 2016: 10th out of 31 sprinting for the win;
  • Hamburg 2016: 9th out of 27 sprinting for the win;
  • Kuurne 2017: 5th out of 5 sprinting for the win;
  • Ronde 2017: 9th out of 14 sprinting for 5th;
  • BCB 2017: lost the sprint to De Buyst;
  • Harelbeke 2018: last in the sprint for second;
  • Gent 2018: 7th out of 19 sprinting for the win;
  • Hamburg 2018: 5th out of 23 sprinting for the win;
  • Milano Sanremo 2019: 10th out of 12 sprinting for the win (after an earlier attack);
  • Gent 2019: 7th out of 28 sprinting for the win;
  • Amstel 2019: 10th out of 12 sprinting for the win.
And there are actually many more examples that I didn't include. I'll concede that in some of these cases he had attacked before thus wasting some energy, but this is an impressive track record for a fast rider. The only two Classics I can remember him winning from a sprint are the EC and Paris-Tours 2017. In both cases he had a teammate with him.
The odds of finding someone faster than him in a sprint (even a reduced one) in a race such the WC in Harrogate are, in my opinion, very high. Being italian, I would love him to win, but I believe he has a more realistic shot at the win by attacking in the last 10 km than waiting for the final sprint.

Hopefully he proves me wrong.
 
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It is interesting that he didn't have a thread yet. I don't know what his chances are in the WCs, but he will likely be a player in the end. The potential is there for a great race because of the course and the number of guys who are 'on'.
 
In reply to SafeBet, he hasn’t won many classics in sprints, but most of his GT stage wins have involved out sprinting somebody, be it Sagan in (I think ) Rheims in the Tour, or the whole field in the (again, I think it was the...) 2017 Vuelta. He’s also good at uphill sprints, which the finale of the Harrogate Course is.

I do think he’s just a half step below the quality of rider that will probably win this Worlds, though. Unless he has overwhelming numbers in his favour in the lead group on the last lap, I can’t see him finishing first out of a group with any/all of the other main favourites (Sagan, Alaphilippe, vdPoel, Valverde, Gilbert etc) who all have proven track records of winning big one-day races from small groups, and not always needing team support to do it.
 
Not too many riders have won GT stage in bunch sprint, reduced sprint and solo but Trentin has done it all.

Hushovd is another recent rider who has it (plus he has TT win)
 
His strong form continues with a victory today in the Trofeo Matteotti (from the early break as I understand it). Curiously, it was his first ever win in one of the very many Italian one day races, and it was only his second pro win in his home country after his Giro stage win.
 
His strong form continues with a victory today in the Trofeo Matteotti (from the early break as I understand it). Curiously, it was his first ever win in one of the very many Italian one day races, and it was only his second pro win in his home country after his Giro stage win.
Well, how could he not have won the race named after him :)
 

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