Thursdays TT (Can Wiggins Seriously Challenge for the Podium)

[Anonymous]

Thursdays Time Trial

Well us brits are already looking forward to thursday and the TT.. great ride by wiggins today, so just what can we expect in the TT....

Obvsiously AC and LA are two of the strongest if not two strongest TT'ers in the top ten, and its to be expected that they are 1-2 after the TT, but will they...

Anyone got any ideas on the likely performances etc, just how much can you take out on a 40k TT, what sort of times can wiggins put into the other top ten riders (in other words how big a gap can brad have in hand going into ventoux assuming that he sticks with the leaders for the next few days) would gaps of 1 minute between pure time triallers and non specialists, or are we looking potentially at bigger gaps, or smaller...

15k prologue brad took 20 seconds out of lance, does that mean he can take a minute out of him over 40? 40 seconds out of Baby Shleck so can he seriously put a two minutes into him...?

this thread was intended as TT discussion but with Brad as a sub-plot but it wont let me rename it

 

[Anonymous]

I certainly hope he rides well. The whole team is behind him now, and I would love it for him, and so Garmin can ask Stapelton where their podium guy is. (off topic I know)

I sincerely do love watching him do this however. Just a great ride today, GO WIGGO!!

 

[iceman2321]

Judging by the way he rode today, hell yes!!!

Especially as he can TT, wouldn't suprise me if he finished 2nd!!
Go Wiggins!!

Iceman

 

[Anonymous]

i just want it to be thursday...

Get into london 2.45pm, just in time to peg it to marylybone for brad starting at about half three, flags out in the pub cheering him on... Two days later, nice little bar in paris, having what i think is going to be a very nervous day...

as for the TT with brad missing the tour last year, and the giro TT this year being a mountain one im struggling to find any recent TT performances to go on..

One thing in common though, in both the giro and the prologue brad took chunks out of lance... If he can get through tuesday and wednesday Im starting to wonder if he can move second...

for the actual TT, obviously contador, and Cancellara the big favourites, Dave Millar should have a good go (potentially top 5, and more importantly can give info to brad) and brad should finish top five as well... Cadel as the fifth?

Contador
CAncellara
Wiggins
Millar
Cadel

What of the rest...?

(Stephen roche thinking that Wiggins will leapfrog armstrong and close the gap on alberto - we are behind we paused sky+ for an hour.. lol)

 

[Carlo Algatrensig]

Being a Brit I'm hoping brad can get all the way to Paris on the Podium. I think the stage that will decide whether he does or not will be Wednesdays. If he can get through that stage with five Cat1 climbs as he has done the other mountain stages I think he will do it.

 

[Anonymous]

Being a Brit I'm hoping brad can get all the way to Paris on the Podium. I think the stage that will decide whether he does or not will be Wednesdays. If he can get through that stage with five Cat1 climbs as he has done the other mountain stages I think he will do it.

i dunno.. ventoux.. im preparing myself to have to console a very tearful wife when brad blows half way up

 

[Izoard]

I think the biggest threats for Wiggo are going to be Stages 17 and 20 (I know this is not really a rocket science assessment). Stage 17 has a lot of climbing and that could really sap his legs; he may fair well on the day, but be a bit shattered for the TT. Ventoux is obviously a killer ... if Wiggo has good legs, he'll do well. But if his weight loss results in difficulties holding the high speed up the mountain, he could get pretty toasted.

 

[elapid]

Ventoux is obviously not quite the same, but he was impressive on Verbier today.

 

[Futuroscope]

Well us brits are already looking forward to thursday and the TT.. great ride by wiggins today, so just what can we expect in the TT....

Obvsiously AC and LA are two of the strongest if not two strongest TT'ers in the top ten, and its to be expected that they are 1-2 after the TT, but will they...

Anyone got any ideas on the likely performances etc, just how much can you take out on a 40k TT, what sort of times can wiggins put into the other top ten riders (in other words how big a gap can brad have in hand going into ventoux assuming that he sticks with the leaders for the next few days) would gaps of 1 minute between pure time triallers and non specialists, or are we looking potentially at bigger gaps, or smaller...

15k prologue brad took 20 seconds out of lance, does that mean he can take a minute out of him over 40? 40 seconds out of Baby Shleck so can he seriously put a two minutes into him...?

im expecting big things from wiggins in the TT i think he will be able to move up to second place. dont think lance will beat him. martin will probably also ride very well.

 

[Anonymous]

i hadnt actually thought about tony martin..

41 seconds to gain back over baby shleck.. certainly possible...

 

[Big_Blue_Dave]

I think Tuesday's stage will be one that can see how Bradley will do in the overall. Firstly, we have the rest day on Monday followed by two of the toughest passes in the Alps even though there is a downhill to the finish.

After this, I think the next stage will be one he could potentially winn if a group of 10-15 go to the line together as he would be the best finisher in the GC contenders left.

Then the TT, we know what should happen here ith all the GC contenders.

Finally, Mont Ventoux. I don't think Ventoux is as much a problem as all the bits beforehand. Ventoux is a real drag with not that much change in steepness which in theory should suit Brad, but after three weeks will he have the energy left? Probably but we will see.

Then Paris, ride around and maybe even try a break on the last lap with Zabriskie and Millar to deny Cav green if he has a chance, and get seconds back on yellow? I'll wake up soon.

 

[ak-zaaf]

Correct me if i'm wrong, but wasn't Coppi the last former pusuit world champ to reach the tour podium?

If so, reason enough to not want wiggins up there

 

[egtalbot]

Wiggins would seem to be a favorite to get second place. I don't see Andy Schleck taking enough out of him on the climbs to make up for the TT. But I think everyone will be watching to see if he can keep this up on the three remaining big climbing days, especially 17 and 20.

The interesting thing is what this does to Astana tactics. I wonder if it will make Contador more aggressive before the time trial than he otherwise would have been. If the gap between Contador and Wiggins stays the same until then, I think Astana has to realize that Contador could have a bad day in the TT and Wiggins could gain meaningful time. It's not hugely probable, but not a total long shot either. I've gotta think they'll try to get Contador another minute before the TT.

As for the rest, anyone except Wiggins and Contador who still harbors podium hopes is going to want to put time into Lance every chance they get. If everyone rides to their limit, Lance probably doesn't make the podium, but if they screw around and Lance pops a decent TT, he could still be in solid third going into Ventoux, and I don't think they want that. If Schleck or Sastre want to beat him, they better be ahead of him going into the TT, otherwise they're taking a pretty big risk that they can blow him apart on Ventoux.

Barring disaster, I (like everyone) sees Contador riding away with this easily. But the podium seems more in flux later in the race than it has been in recent years. At least 7-8 guys besides AC can realistically think about the podium, even if some are longer shots than others.

 

[benpounder]

Levi takes 1:00 out of lance and nips in just behind Alberto in GC race...

oh wait, the wrong yank pulled out...

 

[slcbiker]

Based on recent past history:
Cancellara
Contador
Evans

Wiggins is kind of an unknown. He hasn't had to go really hard in a long TT at the end of three weeks. 4K pursuit doesn't necessarily translate to 40K. And who knows if he has sacrificed some power for better climbing.
Armstrong is also unknown. Definitely not the rider he was. But might still be good enough to be top 5.
Zabriskie on form would probably also be top 5, but he hasn't seemed to be particularly on form this TdF.
Millar's not that good. Hate to say it, but much of his success seems to have been down to EPO. Top ten maybe, but not top 5.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

I'll be as happy as anyone if he rides himself onto the podium, but I think it's more than a bit premature to jump ahead to Thursday, the next two stages aren't exactly easy, at all. Tuesday has two huge climbs, and Wednesday is actually the queen stage. When faced with back to back climbing days, and a similar profile in the Giro's Monte Petrano, Brad completely cracked, was dropped on every climb, not just the last climb, finishing at the back of the autobus, 48 minutes behind, fourth from last place.

Giro's Monte Petrano:

Wednesday's stage to Grand Bornand:

 

[Anonymous]

major difference is, in the giro the riders where riding aggresively, there where attacks, the pace was high.. this tour, everyone seems content to ride it out to ventoux, and the pace is much easier..

but anyway.. the time trial.. lol..

 

[Parrot23]

When faced with back to back climbing days, and a similar profile in the Giro's Monte Petrano, Brad completely cracked, was dropped on every climb, not just the last climb, finishing at the back of the autobus, 48 minutes behind, fourth from last place.

Yes, remember that.

I think Wiggo does too. LOTS of talk from him at end today about "One day at a time, one day at a time" etc... It's very early going for him yet.

 

[Titaniumtim]

I am wondering about Kloden. If he isn't totally knackered from dragging Lance through the Alps. If the Schlecks, Sastre and Evens do some serious attacking I am not sure how Wiggins will hold up through it all. Wiggins only had 3 seconds on him on the first stage and Kloden is riding well. It is a 41 second deficit but if Wiggins makes any errors I can see him getting overtaken by Kloden.

 

[Jayarbie]

I would guess that Armstrong will win the ITT, but not take enough time out of Contador to challenge for the yellow jersey (Contador's lead will be bigger by then, and virtually unassailable). If Wiggins is still in the top 5 at the start of the ITT, he should do very well and gain on all of the contenders except Armstrong and Contador (maybe Evans). Ventoux will be tough him to follow, though. That one is just vicious. The question wll be how much time he gets on riders like Schleck and Sastre in the ITT and how well he can limit his losses on Ventoux. It's not out of the question that he can finish on the podium, but it's certainly not inevitable at this point, either, and I think anything higher than 3rd is unlikely. At the current time, I'd guess he'll finish around 5th on the ITT:

1. Armstrong
2. Cancellara
3. Contador
4. Evans
5. Wiggins

 

[jaylew]

I would guess that Armstrong will win the ITT, but not take enough time out of Contador to challenge for the yellow jersey (Contador's lead will be bigger by then, and virtually unassailable). At the current time, I'd guess he'll finish around 5th on the ITT:

1. Armstrong
2. Cancellara
3. Contador
4. Evans
5. Wiggins

What on earth have you seen from Armstrong since his comeback that leads you to believe he'll win the TT? He is not the TTer he was in his heyday.

I think the results will look eerily similar to the 1st TT, with Cancellara, Contador, Kloden and Evans being the favorites. Not sure about Wiggins; he usually goes better in shorter TTs. Of course he usually can't climb so who knows what to expect from him?

 

[the_prawn]

I'd expect Mick Rogers to do well in the TT - probaby top ten, maybe even top five. He crashed the day before the start doing recon for the TT, dropped his chain 3 times in the first TT, crashed the other day and has now seen his GC hopes flushed down the toilet.
If he can recover from the crashes ok, I'd expect either a big ride in the TT or a breakaway attempt through the mountains while the guys still contending for GC sit around and watch each other.

As for Wiggins, he looked the goods last night and I'd expect a top three finish in the TT for sure and potentially a podium in Paris. It all comes down to how he handles the next couple of days through the mountains and thats anyones guess really.

 

[Izoard]

I would guess that Armstrong will win the ITT, but not take enough time out of Contador to challenge for the yellow jersey (Contador's lead will be bigger by then, and virtually unassailable). If Wiggins is still in the top 5 at the start of the ITT, he should do very well and gain on all of the contenders except Armstrong and Contador (maybe Evans). Ventoux will be tough him to follow, though. That one is just vicious. The question wll be how much time he gets on riders like Schleck and Sastre in the ITT and how well he can limit his losses on Ventoux. It's not out of the question that he can finish on the podium, but it's certainly not inevitable at this point, either, and I think anything higher than 3rd is unlikely. At the current time, I'd guess he'll finish around 5th on the ITT:

1. Armstrong
2. Cancellara
3. Contador
4. Evans
5. Wiggins

Say again??

 

[jaylew]

major difference is, in the giro the riders where riding aggresively, there where attacks, the pace was high.. this tour, everyone seems content to ride it out to ventoux, and the pace is much easier..

Unless things go like they did today. I don't remember the last time I saw the pace so high near the base of a climb. There were only what, 5 guys there when Contador flew the coop? Wiggins was one of them, though.

 

[Blakeslee]

What on earth have you seen from Armstrong since his comeback that leads you to believe he'll win the TT?

Probably not the best judge of what will happen in the TT, but Armstrong looked awfully strong in the TTT stage. I also wouldn't put a lot of relevance into the opening time trial considering how different the two courses are. The first time trial was basically a short uphill time trial which favored riders like Contador while Thursday's TT in more of a traditional flat time trial which will favor the classic time trial riders like Cancellara, Armstrong, Wiggins and Kloden.

My best guess:

1. Cancellara
2. Contador/Armstrong
3. Contador/Armstrong
4. Wiggins
5. Evans/Kloden