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Tirreno - Adriatico 2016 09/03/16 - 15/03/16 2.UWT

Who will win the Race of Two Seas?

  • Pinot

    Votes: 16 15.5%
  • Uran

    Votes: 3 2.9%
  • Pozzovivo

    Votes: 1 1.0%
  • TJ

    Votes: 10 9.7%
  • Yates

    Votes: 4 3.9%
  • Rodriguez

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Other (Vino)

    Votes: 18 17.5%
  • Nibali

    Votes: 32 31.1%
  • Valverde

    Votes: 17 16.5%
  • Mollema

    Votes: 2 1.9%

  • Total voters
    103
Tirreno - Adriatico 2016 09/03/16 - 15/03/16 2.UWT

Not much hype for this race, I can see. The course is not as interesting as normal, unfortunately.

STAGE 1: 22km TTT
Stage-1450699600.jpeg


Flat, fairly long TTT in Lido di Camamiore, the starting place of recent years. Etixx, BMC among the favourites.

STAGE 2:
Stage-1450699592.jpeg

More interesting stage, apparently designed by Paolo Bettini I read somewhere. The finish in Pomerance comes after a short muro of about 1km, averaging about 7% but very irregular - it reaches 16% and 18% in places. After that comes a rolling 2 or 3 km before a short sharp rise to the finish. Suits the likes of Valverde and Kwiat, but I feel Sagan/Ulissi will probably survive this and Cancellara will be very motivated. EBH also.Hopefully we'll see fireworks on the last climb

STAGE 3:
Stage-1450699647.jpeg

Boring sprint stage. Sagan, Gaviria, Ewan and Viviani. Actually no wait there is a rise at the finish! Probably not Viviani then.

STAGE 4:
Stage-1450700258.jpeg

Interesting stage. Two climbs spike the last 50km of this long stage. Montefalco (5.5km, 4.1%, max. 18%, long stretches with gradients of over 12%), and Trevi (4.0km, 5.3%, max. 16%). I can't find the profiles bu they seem irregular and hard. With rain here then hopefully there will be attacks and the like. Nibali might attack, but it coem the day before the big MTF, not after. Cancellara attack or a punchy sprinter like Colbrelli or Sagan? Hangs in the balance. Should be fun :)

STAGE 5:
Stage-1450700308.jpeg

For the GC guys. Nibali, Uran, Valverde, TJ, Yates, Chaves, Pinot and Pozzo are the favourites. The final climb is Monte San Vicino, which can be divided into two constantly-sloping parts: the first one, with a gradient of around 7%, stretches until 2 km from the summit and includes an 11% section 3km from the finish, while the second one is slightly milder and leads all the way up to the finish. The gradient is around 5-6% between the 2.5km and 1.5km to go marks and then the next 500m average 8.8%. In the final kilometre, the gradient is between 4.8% and 6.8%. There aren’t many turns on the climb but the final kilometres are more winding. The 200-m long home stretch runs slightly uphill, on 7-m wide asphalt road after a sweeping left-hand turn. This I think is the right side. I reckon Nibali, after his win in Oman.

STAGE 6:
Stage-1450700593.jpeg

Frustrating. Great options around but RCS wanted to make a sprinters' stage. This might go to the break, but most liekely someone like Sagan will take this. A sprinter who can climb well, or a puncher with a very quick finish. Last few kilometres.

STAGE 7: 10km ITT
Final_GC-1450700920.jpeg

Martin vs Cancellara. No Malori here after his horrible crash in San Luis to take it, either. The GC guys will see the order shake up a bit, bu the winner will have probably already been decided.

STARTLIST: http://www.procyclingstats.com/race.php?id=163639&c=3
 
Jun 30, 2014
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It's a good route for Kwaitkowski, but he wasn't great at Strade Bianche.
Is he even the team leader for Tirreno-Adriatico?
 
After looking at the stages more closely, I still dislike the route, but not as much as I did when I first saw it. Stages 1 and 7 are TT's so at least no complete borefest. Stages 2 and 5 look promising and stage 4 seems to be okay (depending on how hard the final climb is, because I didnt find a profile of it) and even if there is a bunch sprint I expect a reduced one, and some attacks on the climbs, so I'm okay with it.
Stages 3 and 6 however are still boring, although both finishes are slightly uphill, so the sprint will at least be very hard.
 
Re:

Velolover2 said:
stage-2-1km.jpg


Detailed view of the stage 2 (the finale). Awesome finish. Kwiatkowski vs. Valverde IMO.

Movistar and Sky should at least try to drop Sagan on the climb.

Problem is that as Mayo said, Kwiatkowski didn't look good at Strade Bianche, normally a positive race for him, and Sagan looked imperious, until the final climb. In fact, Bala didn't look amazing either, worse than in previous years. Also, that climb is 1km at 7-8, maxing at 16% and 18%. That is not a climb that soemone like Sagan will be fearing. He will probably be relishing it. It is way too hard for fast men who can't climb as well as him, and not long enough for him to be distanced, maybe dropped but not distanced. At Strade Bianche he made a move on these gradients didn't he? I wouldn't be surprised if he attacks
 
Re:

Zinoviev Letter said:
I doubt if Dan Martin will do Ettix's chances of winning the TTT much good. But it will probably be a novelty for him to come out of a TTT with an advantage over most GC riders.

Just checked PCS to see who was riding for my CQ team. Seems to have been lots of changes from earlier in the week, including Dan Martin no longer racing.

Catalunya next for him it seems

Edit - EQS team for Tirreno

111 Martin, Tony
112 Brambilla, Gianluca
113 Gaviria, Fernando
114 Jungels, Bob
115 Lampaert, Yves
116 Stybar, Zdenek
117 Trentin, Matteo
118 Vermote, Julien
 
Re:

johnymax said:
Pinot vs Nibali (vs Tejay (vs Bala)) for the win. Roglic top8.

I really like the finale of stage 2. Would be nice if Sagan takes his first win of the season with a great attack.

Hope you're right with the Squalo-Tibopino 1-2 prediction :D . Sagan on stage 2? Yes, that looks good, although he's been lacking a little something so far this year - explosiveness-wise. On that type of a finish, it could be a 8-10 rider sprint, and Valverde will be there.
 
Mar 13, 2015
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Well I will go with my avatar man.. :p , although Nibs will be tough to beat. Also hoping for a Sagan stage win
 
Brullnux said:
Boring sprint stage. Sagan, Gaviria, Ewan and Viviani. Actually no wait there is a rise at the finish!
Probably not Viviani then.

Viviani is one of the best climbing sprinters around. It's Gaviria that the stage isn't likely to be for
Indeed, Viviani won on a carbon copy of that finish at last year's Giro.
 
roundabout said:
As far as I understand, Nibali was not in 100% health last weekend so it remains to be seen how well he will do.

He is good. A bit tired on Sunday at GP Larciano after Strade plus wet and cold so he abandoned on the last lap. TA is a target for him, I expect him to go all out but it won't be easy.
 
roundabout said:
As far as I understand, Nibali was not in 100% health last weekend so it remains to be seen how well he will do.
He said today he's not sure about his shape and he'll take it day by day. But he was good in Oman, and not that bad in Strade Bianche either. He's probably not 100%, but his shape is fine.