Tom Danielson ???

[Oldman]

I like TD and was hoping he did well this year, BUT…

Wiggins
Kloden
Horner
Vino
VDB

All crashed out. All of them would have been contenders for top 10 at the least. Also maybe Leipheimer, van de Velde and Gesink if they had not suffered injuries. So with a more complete field, Tommy probably would have been out of the top 10, maybe around 15th. Still not bad, but not a major advance from his top 10s in the Vuelta. He has become very consistent, never had a bad stage after stage 1, but other than that I don't see a lot of improvement from those Vueltas. While he did lose time in a crash in stage 1, he also got a lot of it back with the TTT. If you exclude those time differences—IOW, if you consider times after stage 2—it turns out TD’s time was identical to Basso’s. But this was not the Basso of old, and probably not very close to the Basso who dominated the Giro last year.

OTOH, in this year’s Tour, the top 10 were more bunched up. Going back at least to the late 1990s, there has been only one Tour in which the 5th place time and the 10th place time were closer to first than was the case this year. That was 2008 (3:05 vs. 3:57 and 9:05 vs. 10:11), the year Bert and Astana were excluded. So you could argue that a top 10 means a little more now than it did in the past, i.e., that 10th is closer in performance to first. This reduction of the time gaps might be taken as more evidence, I suppose, of a cleaner peloton, if we assume that in the past a few riders were getting a big advantage, either from better programs, or because a substantial number of contenders and/or their domestiques weren’t doping.

In fact, in the LA years, there were usually of course huge gaps from LA to second, and also often from second (Ullrich) to riders further down. If you just remove those two riders from those Tours, the top 10s then look a lot like the top 10 more recently, in terms of time differential. You could say the peloton in the years following 2005 is a lot like the peloton then sans Armstrong/Ullrich,with 2011 continuing that trend a little further.

It is hard to compare pelotons in recent years but the mortality rate is likely to go up as riders are comparatively cleaner (Levi comes to mind). Danielson isn't an overraced domestique so I think he has an upside, will allowing. That is the big X factor for him like so many others. Cadel demonstrated what discipline did for him this year and he could continue succeeding if he has the motivation. After what he's accomplished; that won't get easier.
Looking at your list for the future: Vino is gone, Horner is nicked/old, Wiggins is wiggy and Kloden has shown his best. The younger guys will be the challenge IMO because the arms race will begin to favor the healthier dudes. That, until; the next big angle of treatment shows up but let's save the cynicism.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

If Tommy D has always been clean then he should be a real contender right about now, if we are experiencing a "cleaner peloton".

Possibly he was doped 2005-2006, but I do doubt that he has been charging at Slipstream. A fairly consistent level in the 2009, 2010 Vuelta and that in the Tour. Maybe he is the limits of what can be achieved without juice.

You do have a point there. And TDs recent 9th overall in his FIRST Tour could equate to a higher GC placing next year with the added experience.

 

[HACKLERA68]

That's a bit harsh. But maybe he should focus to win one of the one-week stage races.

Sorry, I didn't mean it to sound so harsh. I like them both, have met them both. i guess what i should have said was that after watching and waiting and hoping for so long for them both to succeed, I think they are both maxed out. I don't think they have the ability to really win the big one. I know Levi podiumed, but I feel he maxed out. I wish it weren't so. But, fact is , if you watch the last ten tours, Levi has never been able to just ride away from anyone at any point when it mattered. TD never has either in a big race because he was never quite good enough to get to the big race until this year. And, it showed that he did not have the ability except to follow the leaders. Unfortunately, not even as well as Levi has done. But reality is that neither has the ability to be on the next level. It would have been awesome to see Chris Horner and what he would have been able to do after his year. I think he would have possibly been with Voeckler on that break away and the tour would have been different. I apologize for speaking bad about Levi and TD. I wish they had that extra gear. They both hold the records most dear to me as a Coloradan, Leadville and Cheyenne Canyon TT.

 

[Fatclimber]

Put Voeckler's head on Danielson's body and you would have a Tour winner.

I think it is Voeckler's heart that got him so far, not his head. In fact it's his head that had him riding in no-mans-land on the Alpe stage for so long that hurt him. Put Voeckler's heart in anybody and you'll see their potential.

After Tom d's days with LA&co beating Landis in Georgia, I'm too cynical to believe in him.