Tour de France Tour 2025: Mont Ventoux climbing time

What will be the best rider's climbing time of Mont Ventoux on stage 16?

  • Over 1 hour: Paniagua

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The wind will be NNW (850 hPa maps predict up to 20-25 kph) so unfortunately long fragments of substantial headwind in the last section. However, maybe the slope will partially protect riders from it (I guess NW or WNW would be worse here).

A lot depends on pacing in the first half of the climb but I think it will be strong: both UAE and Visma will be eager to have a go during this stage. I think Mayo's record will be beaten, top2 guys have incredible level. But it won't be as shattered as some poll options indicate. Prediction: 55'10'' by Pogacar.
 
Oct 21, 2024
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I remember following it on a ticker, but wasn't televised where I lived at the time. It came as quite shock.

It was a Time Trial starting somewhere in Bedoin, so unless we know precisely where, comparisons are going to be inaccurate. It was 21.6km, and the riders were not fatigued after 15 stages of Grand Tour racing, or having raced 150km to get there, so time comparisons are going to be invidious. I don't recall the prevailing wind direction at the time either.

Besides Mayo, Hamilton was a close 2nd, followed by Oscar Sevilla and Mercado, with Armstrong 2 mins behind in fifth. Obviously, this is "Clinic" territory, but a few weeks later at the Tour, four of these riders had sunk without trace, only Armstrong had improved. Very characteristic of the times, and very different to what we have now, where riders are far more consistent (and predictable).
 
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54:10.

I don't think wind on Ventoux is as important as pacing strat, and the most important thing they go full blast from the bottom which they never do, but I think they will this time. Contador and Schleck went under 59 minutes doing stop start attacks and having a 40kph headwind near the top for example. And no, ideal pacing strategy does not mean domestiques for 13km. Finestre if anything shows you it's more like the opposite.

And I don't think 54:10 is particularly fast considering what these guys have shown before. I was expecting think earlier 52s were possible and I was doing the math on sub 50. That seems a little ambitious.
 
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I think we just witnessed history being made today.

10 guys beat Pantani's record: Pogacar, Vingegaard, Roglic, Lipowitz, Onley, Carlos Rodriguez, Felix Gall, Adam Yates, Vauquelin and Higuita.

Pogacar, Vingegaard, Roglic and Lipowitz even beat Mayo's ITT record as well.

And this was done on a stage with an average speed of almost 50km/h on the flat section before the climb.

These times are so outrageous and widespread that I must assume the wind (and nice weather) probably played a major role today.
 
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