If Contador leaves Astana, then they will for sure not be invited to TdF 2010 - with Vino coming back
they might not be invited anyway
I think Contador will leave Astana, hence no Astana next year.
Agritubel is history, so they will not be there either.
But it is actually rumored that there will be a new Spanish team built up around AC - with F1 champion Fernando Alonso (http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/contador-to-burn-rubber-for-formula-1-star
What happens if this should become reality?
I think AC will be invited no matter what team colors he has (save light blue & yellow...), Lance's RadioShack because of the PR value that comes with Le Circe Lance, and Sky HD because they have both the money AND the management for more than just one year to attract good riders.
So my tip is Astana and Agritubel out, and also Skil-Shimano out if there is an new team with AC in 2010.