Tour de France 2014: stage-by-stage analysis

[rghysens]

I'm not Eshnar, and it's not the Giro. But hey, why not?
I won't review all stages today, but in the next week they all should be published.

so...

Stage 1: Leeds – Harrogate: 190.5 km, flat
Overview:
When the “Grand Départ” of the 2014 Tour de France was awarded to Yorkshire, Mark Cavendish – then reigning world champion – was still the prime British cyclist. One would think this stage would be designed with him in mind, with a finish almost in front of his mother’s house, but it may turn out trickier than it looks at first sight. This is also something Marcel Kittel noticed during his reconnaissance of the stage, as you can read here. Let’s take a look at the map and profile:

In the middle part of the stage there are some climbs that aren’t overly difficult, but difficult enough to create some gaps if a team decides to hit the gas, as happened in last year’s stage to Albi (although this stage is easier, and I don’t expect a very hard race the very first day, even more so because of the next stage ). The finish isn’t easy either, with a small climb (600m @ 6%) that tops out at the 1km to go banner and a final streak of 400m @ 4% (the "not to be ridden" disclaimer is because it's the opposite direction of a one-way road, so fans shouldn't recon it when there's the normal traffic.

Add to that the seemingly quite narrow roads and the tension of a first tour stage and we know crashes will occur. The meteorological conditions seem to be quite favorable, as Yorkshire is amongst the drier regions of the UK (being in the rainshadow of the western hills and mountains). The prevailing winds are southwestern, which means there could be lateral winds starting from the last climb of the day. The problem, however, is that July is the calmest month of the year (so keep fingers crossed).
A more elaborate description of the climbs in this stage can be found here.

Predictions:
Although there are some decent climbs halfway through, I don’t expect them to be raced that hard by the peloton. Depending on the wind conditions, some teams (Belkin and OPQS, to name a few) could try to create echelons, but it remains to be seen if that’s the case. In my opinion, anything between a full bunch sprint and a small group, created by echelons, contesting the stage is possible.
Looking at the quite difficult finish, however, I expect some of the stronger sprinters (Degenkolb, Greipel, Sagan) to win.

 

[rghysens]

Stage 2: York – Sheffield: 201km, hilly
Overview:
I already stated it in the race design thread, a while ago: I like this stage, a lot. If the stage designers seemed to hold back on the difficulty of the first stage, they let themselves loose at this stage. There are 9 categorised climbs on this stage, but you can see a couple more on the profile if you look at it.

I don’t mean to take a closer look at all the climbs, that’s already been done in detail here and here.
With a reported elevation gain of more than 3000m, this stage looks like a carbon copy of Liege-Bastogne-Liege, bereft of its first 60km. It doesn’t happen much that we see stages that hard so soon in the tour. Last year there were two stages in Corsica that broke the field and in 2010 there was an Ardennes stage to Spa that was quite difficult too. Furthermore there were hilltop finishes in opening stages in 2008 and 2011, but this one tops them all, effortlessly. The last time a similar stage has been designed, was in 1995, when Indurain destroyed the field. That stage only 50 or so cyclists finished within a minute and half the peloton lost 10 minutes or more. And guess what, in my opinion this stage is even harder, as this final is spiced up by some climbs, while it was flat in 1995. The stats of the last two climbs (1.5km @ 9.1% and 800m @ 10.8%) are more or less comparable with the Mur de Huy (1.3km @ 9.8%), although the latter has some steeper pitches.

Predictions:
This stage could turn out to be really epic, if the peloton decides to make the race hard. In that case, the peloton will be completely fractured. Another reason to add to the excitement is Chris Froome’s poor performance during stage 6 of last year’s Tirreno-Adriatico, on a parcours that showed some similarities with this one. Other contenders like Nibali and Contador will certainly want to test him on this tricky stage. Of course, all favorites for GC know this and they will urge their teammates to keep them well sheltered at the front of the bunch, to avoid crashes or splits in the pack. Maybe this will result in the exact opposite: a crash festival, resulting in some early abandons. The last couple of years we saw that prerace favorites like to play the waiting game in almost every major race, but even if the racing is somewhat conservative, the last 20km are hard enough to get rid of anyone even looking remotely like a sprinter (unless you count Sagan).
Look at the last editions of LBL, and you know your favorites: Gerrans, Valverde, Kwiatkowski, Daniel Martin and also Sagan. It will be a sprint with a very small group at best.

 

[rghysens]

Stage 3: Cambridge – London: 155km, flat
Overview:
Look at the map and profile, and you know enough: this is the first really flat stage of the race.

It’s a very short stage too, as it is followed by a transfer to mainland France by train. It’s located closer to the coast, and thus maybe more prone to echelon forming.

Predictions:
Somehow I don’t expect anything exciting to happen on this stage, but I will be happy proven wrong. This is about as flat as it can get, and barring misfortunes I expect the fastest sprinter to take it: Marcel Kittel, in front of Cavendish.

 

[rghysens]

Stage 4: Le Touquet-paris-Plage – Villeneuve d’Asq/Lille Métropole: 163.5km, flat
Overview :
Last couple of years we saw in GT’s that an early long transfer was followed by a TTT in the afternoon the same (or next) day. Luckily they spare us of that. What we are served, however, isn’t much more exciting either. ASO could certainly have spiced up the final by adding some lesser know cobblestone sectors towards Villeneuve d’Asq (Beaucamp-Ligny: 700m+1100m, Wavrin: 1000m+400m, Chemy: 3500m, Attiches: 1800m, maybe even Pont-Thibault with 15km to go; but let’s not turn this into another race design thread).

Alas, as we see on the map and profile, we get a flat stage with its final through French-Flanders. It will see Mont Cassel abused as an intermediate sprint. The first 2/3 of its entire length is raced parallel to (but not along) the coast, so might see echelon forming, but that depends on the weather conditions.

Prediction:
We might copy the predictions of the previous stage: Kittel in front of Cav, to make it short.

 

[rghysens]

Stage 5: Ieper (Ypres) – Arenberg/Porte du Hainaut: 155.5km, cobbles
Overview :
Welcome to what is without any doubt the most anticipated stage of the whole Tour. In my opinion, this stage lacks something to make a real impact, namely 50 extra km, at least 10 of which should be cobbled. Now we have a stage that’s not even an espoir-race length, sprinkled with some easy-ish or truncated difficult “secteurs paves”.

Predictions:
Some crashes during the first cobblestone sectors, and if the last two sectors will make an impact on the course of the race (barring crashes, of course) I’ll be happy. If no crashes happen on the last two sectors, I expect a medium-sized group (a couple of dozens of riders) to contest the stage, with Cavendish emerging victorious. Last year’s Giro and British national championships have convinced me that he is more than just a pure sprinter that has the peloton to let go after the first difficulty.

 

[rghysens]

Stage 6: Arras – Reims: 194km, flat
Overview:
In some western European countries 2014 starts a 4-year period of commemorating World War I. This stage can be seen as a small nod towards those commemorations. Arras and Reims were heavily damaged during several bombardments (about 75% of Arras was destroyed, and 60% of Reims). After the war the destroyed edifices of both cities (and many other, of course) were meticulously restored or rebuild. Reims cathedral is now a world heritage site and the Grand Place of Arras is a candidate.

If you look closely at the map and profile, you’ll notice that the peloton passes Coucy-le-Chateau after 107.5km, and that’s another relic of the brutality of the war. In 1917 a German officer ordered the destruction of the keep of the 13th century castle (the tallest in Europe, and a French national monument) by putting 27 tons of explosives in it and blowing the whole thing to smithereens.
OK, enough background stories. Over to the stage design itself. Well, there’s not much to say about. It’s a genuine flat stage that heads southeast. There are no major climbs, cobblestones, not even a bump in the final that could provoke some excitement. Only possibility to create gaps is echelon forming.

Predictions:
Unless echelon forming or crashes, mass sprint. Kittel vs. Cavendish. Other contenders will be Greipel, Démare, ...

 

[rghysens]

Stage 7: Epernay – Nancy: 234.5km, hilly final
Overview:

Another hint at WWI with a passage through Verdun. This is the longest but one stage of the Tour and for the first 214.5km there isn’t much to say about it. The last 20km however, there are two 4th category hills. The first of them, the Cote de Marrons was also used in the run-in to Nancy in the 6th stage in 2005, but it failed to create any decisive gaps then, although 60 riders were shelled from the peloton. I don’t think it will create much gaps now, either. The next climb is a very nice find by ASO, you have to give it to them. They are really trying to spice flat stages up, the last couple of years. Cresting only 5km from the finish, and being 1.3km @ 7.9%, it will be a stage decider.

Predictions:
I think at least some sprinters won’t survive the final climb, and those who do, will have to cope with their derailed trains. Furthermore there will already be some sizeable gaps in the classification after the cobbled stage and the stage to Sheffield. Therefore I think most sprinters won’t be eager to let their teammates work (certainly not those who already have had some success), even more so because it is such a long stage. So, this is one for the break.

 

[rghysens]

Stage 8: Tomblaine – Gerardmer/La Mauselaine: 161km, medium mountains + hilltop finish
Overview:
Another short stage. Flat for a bit more than 130km, and then a difficult final with 3 climbs and some very steep pitches.

The first climb is the longest of the day, but quite regular and not very steep, being 7.6km @ 6%.

The second climb, the Col de Grosse Pierre (3km @ 7.5%), is rather a shortish but very steep ramp through the hamlet of La Roche, reaching 15% and more, preceded and followed by some false flat. The final climb, towards the ski station of La Mauselaine is also the finish: 1.8km @ 10.3%. That’s more something one expects in Tirreno-Adriatico or the Basque country, and I guess most of us were very surprised to see it here. All in all, there are enough opportunities to distance your rivals, if you feel up to it.

Predictions:
A breakaway to form in the flat beginning, the favorites for the final GC won’t really bother, unless some of them would have lost a bit of time the first days. So, it depends on the teams of the punchy climbers aiming for stage victories (Moreno, Rodriguez if he feels ok, Valverde, D.Martin,…) if the break is caught or not. Between the favorites some gaps in the range of 10 seconds will appear.

 

[rghysens]

Stage 9: Gerardmer – Mulhouse: 170km, medium mountains
Overview:
Almost immediately after the start the roads start to climb, and for 145km the road will go up or down, while it twists and turns through the Vosges.

Only the last 20km it will ease up again, but by then the peloton has covered 6 climbs of a varying difficulty, good for a total elevation gain of more than 3200m, comparable to LBL. Most climbs aren’t very steep, so this stage is rather suited to the powerhouses than to the pocketclimbers. In a similar stage in the 2005 Tour (maybe not coincidently also Gerardmer – Mulhouse) the peloton was completely fractured after just 30km and 3 3rd category climbs because the pace was so high because everyone who could wanted to form a break.
A big spoiler for fireworks is the flat final of 20km after the descent, but if any favorite is caught out napping in the first half, this stage will be hell for the non-climbers and even those final kilometers will be raced hard.
The last climb of the day, the 1st category ascent to Le Markstein is hard enough to shatter any breakaway and if the time differences aren’t too big, maybe even some guys from the peloton can bridge it to the front group.

Predictions:
The previous stage had a difficult final with a steep hilltop finish, next stage will have a steep mountaintop finish, so I think the favorites will take it easy. If the weather is bad, and he already lost some time, someone like Nibali could try it in the final descent, but that would be no more than a desperate try. The stage will be dominated by a breakaway. Many riders will know that they have a chance to contest the stage win, if they are part of said breakaway, so getting in the break will be the hardest part of the day. It may be a day early for the French, but I’m guessing Thomas Voeckler won’t be far from it.

 

[rghysens]

Stage 10: Mulhouse – La Planche des Belles Filles: 161.5km, medium mountains + mountain top finish
Overview :
It says a lot about the stage design in the Alps and Pyrenees that this can be considered as the queen stage. And that for an espoir race-length stage. What ASO lacks in fantasy for the high mountains, it sure makes up in the medium mountains this year.

This stage is an almost relentless sequence of climbs (OK, I may be exaggerating a bit for dramatic purposes), never very long, high or incredibly steep, but more than difficult enough to create big gaps at the end of the day. It starts with the col de Firstplan, rather a warm-up for things to come. After 45km the stage begins in earnest, with the climb of the Petit Ballon, after a narrow and twisty descent followed by the climb of the Col de Platzerwasel.

After that things will become easier, with wider and rather rolling roads, only to change again with 30km to go. In the town of Servance the peloton will leave the main road and take the narrow D133 to climb the short but steep Col de Chevreres, followed by the final climb towards the finish.

Predictions:
A break will be established in the first half of the race, but I think the teams of the favorites won’t give them much leeway. The final will be very hotly debated amongst the favorites, who will catch the break. Whoever will gain the upper hand will probably be victorious in Paris either, unless he already lost a lot of time in the first week. Froome vs. Contador, round 1.

 

[rghysens]

Stage 11: Besancon – Oyonnax: 187.5km, hilly
Overview:
This is the first of two transition stages between the Vosges and the Alps. It heads south from the town where the rest day was held for about 140km and then makes a loop of about 45km east of the finishing town. Oyonnax is a Town in the Jura, a medium mountain range on the border of France and Switzerland. It would not be very difficult to design a more mountainous stage between the same two cities (by using the Col du Berthiand and the Col du Sentier, f.e.), but with 4 decent climbs in the last 50km and some more uncategorized bumps we can’t complain.

Predictions:
The final will definitely be too hard for the pure sprinters (Cavendish, Kittel, Greipel, Demare,…) and looks tailor-made for Sagan, and to a lesser extent for Kristoff and Degenkolb. The main problem for Sagan is that we’re already halfway through, that he may have lost one or two teammates and that most teams will be reluctant to assist in the chase on a likely breakaway. So, probably one for the breakaway.

 

[rghysens]

Stage 12: Bourg-en-Bresse – Saint-Etienne: 185.5km, flat-hilly
Overview :
This stage heads generally in a southwestern direction, to the city of Saint-Etienne, that already hosted the Tour 22 times before. Not only the Tour pays frequent visits to “the city of bicycles and weapons”, also Paris-Nice often passes by. In the edition of 2006 Floyd Landis absolutely destroyed the field towards Saint-Etienne, creating gaps in one stage that were bigger than those in the whole of Paris-Nice this year. With that in mind, one can certainly say that this is actually the first stage with an absolutely underwhelming design. Immediately east of Saint-Etienne there are some 1st category climbs (Crêt d’Oeillon, Croix de Chaubouret) that could have been used without creating an ultra-long stage, but instead ASO decided to use some long false flats and label it as climbs. Maybe 30 years ago 15km @ 3.3% or 9.8km @ 2.9% could create some gaps, but nowadays very few cyclists will break much sweat on them.

Predictions:
I could really see the sprinters fighting for stage win. The long false flatse in the last 50km will certainly favor the peloton over a breakaway group. Maybe the final will be too difficult for the worst climbing among them (Kittel), but it should be no problem for Degenkolb, Kristoff or Greipel and maybe even Cavendish.

 

[rghysens]

Stage 13: Saint-Etienne – Chamrousse: 197.5km, mountains + mountain top finish.
Overview:
This stage reminds me somehow of the stage to l’Alpe d’Huez in the Tour of 1997: a long flat beginning, followed by a MTF. They increased the difficulty somewhat this year, by including a proper climb before the MTF.

I think it’s the first time the Tour uses the Col de Palaquit (the nearby Col de Porte, on the other hand, is a traditional). Despite having some really steep sections and being quite irregular the main favorites won’t throw their cards on the table yet, as it is followed by 15km flat roads and a more difficult MTF. The climb to Chamrousse was first used in a mountain TT in 2001 and saw Lance Armstrong taking the win, exactly 1’ faster than Ullrich. It has its steepest stretches in the first half and flattens out towards the end. The best climbers should attack early in this climb.

I quite like the idea of a 2-climb stage as first mountain stage, but they should be closer to each other, and it would be nicer if the most difficult came first. All in all, this is not a bad stage, but the immediate surroundings of Grenoble have way more on offer. ASO could have designed a really nice stage if they used their imagination a little more.

Predictions:
A breakaway group to contest the stage victory, the favorites to test each other. If one of them already showed some weaknesses on the steep sections of the Palaquit, he'll loose minutes towards Chamrousse. Since next stage isn't overly hard, it wouldn't surprise me if the main contenders started their attacks early on the final climb. And if one of them is head and shoulders above the rest, he'll gain probably more than a minute. If there is no one standing out, we'll probably witness the waiting game again, with minor differences between the top 10 contenders. If la Planche des Belles Filles was a first big test, this stage will likely reduce the number of GC contenders to 3 or 4 at most.

 

[rghysens]

Stage 14: Grenoble – Risoul 1850: 177km, mountains + mountain top finish
Overview:
If the previous stage was a beefed up version of the 13th stage in 1997, this one is a toned down version of the 18th stage in 2011. That day Andy Schleck (who?, one might ask now) attacked on the Izoard, the second climb of the day, took 4 minutes out of the other favorites with the help of some teammates, but ceded some time on the final climb. He still won the stage on top of the Galibier, more than 2 minutes in front of the other contenders.

But instead of the 2744m high Colle dell’Agnello (final 10km @ 9.3%), we get the Col du Lautaret, which is nothing more than a glorified highway. It’s no more than false flat for a big part of its 34km, resulting in an average gradient of only 3.9%. The last 10km are a bit steeper, but still below 6%. These are no gradients any tour contender is afraid of. The long, gradually flattening out descent of the Lautaret is followed by the climb of the Col de l’Izoard. Instead of the legendary south side, like in 2011, with some steep sections and the “moonscape” of the Casse Déserte, the peloton now climbs the easier north side. Being 19km @ 6% this climb is only labeled HC because of its altitude and its name. The descent of the Izoard, quite technical in its first half, but straightforward in the second half is followed by a gently descending false flat towards the small valley town of Guillestre. When leaving the town, the peloton turns left, crosses the Chagne mountain stream and starts the final difficulty of the day: 12.6km @ 6.9% from Risoul to Risoul1850, the ski station of the aforementioned town. This climb is a typical climb to French ski stations: a wide road with very regular gradients. The steepest stretches come at the end of the climb.

Predictions:
A breakaway to establish before the summit of the Lautaret, the peloton to shatter on the Izoard and the main favorites fighting it out on the final climb. Since the steepest parts come at the end, and the climb isn’t that long, we will probably see the teammates of the GC contenders in charge for a good part of the final climb, with only at the end some meaningful action between the favorites. If that’s enough for the stage victory will largely depend on how much leeway the break got, but I think they won’t be caught.

 

[rghysens]

Stage 15: Tallard – Nîmes: 222km, flat
Overview:
After only two stages with the grand total of 5 climbs the peloton leaves the Alps and heads for the Mediterranean. Yes, you read it right: there were more decent climbs in the Vosges than in the Alps, which shows what a travesty the Alps are in this Tour.
Well, so be it. Over to this stage. It’s long and it’s flat. That’s all there is to say about it.

The only possible difficulty there could be is the mistral, the strong northwesterly wind that blows from southern France to the Mediterranean, just like during the 3rd stage in tour of 2009.

Predictions:
Countless tv-shots of lavender fields. The camera shooting the peloton upside-down. For the rest, I don’t have a clue. Even less than I mostly have. Could go to a breakaway, could be a bunch sprint. Maybe the peloton will be completely fractured due to crosswinds, maybe they’ll take it easy. If I have to take a guess: bunch sprint.

 

[rghysens]

Stage 16: Carcassonne – Bagnères-de-Luchon: 237.5km, high mountains.
Overview:

Today’s stage is the longest of the whole Tour, and not an easy one either. The stage starts at the place of the second rest day: the city of Carcassonne, with its UNESCO world heritage site in form of the medieval walled town. For about 150km this stage skirts the foothills of the Pyrenees, with only 2 minor categorized climbs. Then the Col de Portet d’Aspet awaits the riders, which they have to climb from its easiest side. The very steep descent is followed by some rolling roads and the not too difficult Col des Ares. Its descent and some more rolling roads brings us (well, the cyclists in the Tour, that is) at the foot of the main difficulty of the day: the HC Port de Balès.

Since the paving of its southern slope in 2007 it has already been included 3 times in the tour (2007, 2010, 2012). A climb like this will always have a certain impact on the race, even more so when there’s just a fast descent on a narrow road after the summit. Just like in 2010, when Andy Schleck attacked right before the top, but saw his chain dropping off, to be countered by Contador.

Predictions:
A breakaway to establish itself in the first hour, building a big lead and contesting the stage victory. Vicenzo Nibali to try something in the descent.

 

[rghysens]

Stage 17: Saint-Gaudens – Pla d’Adet: 124.5km, high mountains + mountain top finish.
Overview:
The longest stage of the Tour is followed by the shortest stage (in line). Only 124.5km are separating start and finish location, but those who finished the stage will certainly have earned a soft bed and warm shower (even if for some the stage results will rather feel as an ice-cold shower).

Despite its junior race-length and its flat beginnings, this stage is considered to be the queen stage, due to the sequence of 4 climbs with barely any flat in between. As mentioned just before, the stage begins with 50km of flat roads, an ideal warm-up for the first climb of the day: the Col du Portillon. With 8.3km @ 7.1% this climb, on its turn, is a warm-up for the remainder of the stage. The descent towards Bagnères-de-Luchon is not too technical and precedes some flat kilometers in the city centre, place of the feed zone. When leaving the city centre the next difficulty awaits the peloton: the classic Col de Peyresourde, first included in the Tour in 1910. From that edition to the edition of 1938 it featured every year, in classic stages like Luchon-Bayonne, Bayonne-Luchon or Pau-Luchon. Even after the second world war it was frequently included in the course, making it the 4th most used climb in the tour (after the Tourmalet, Aubisque and Aspin). Main reason for that it’s that it links easy with other climbs. Its east side is not an easy one either, with 13.2km @ 7%.

The descent of the Peyresourde is much shorter than the ascent and finishes in Loudenvielle, immediately followed by the shortest climb of the day. Despite only 7.4km long, the Col d’Azet deserves its category 1 label because of its steepness. 8.3% is no Mortirolo or Angliru , but it’s comparable with l’Alpe d’Huez or the Joux-Plane. This time the descent is longer than the ascent and finishes at the foot of the final climb: the 10.2km @ 8.4% from Saint-Lary-Soulan to Pla d’Adet.

Predictions:
Since the first 50km seem ideal to establish a break, so many will try it, resulting in insane speeds and no overly big gaps. The break will hold itself on the Portillon and Peyresourde, but I think Sky and Saxo-Tinkoff will hold a firm grip on the race (if Froome and Contador are still close to each other). The main favorites will test each other on the Azet and fight it out on the final climb. One of them will take the spoils, the other will crack today, but it remains to be seen by how much. Everyone else will be at least 3 minutes down in GC, resulting in a de facto duel for the remainder of the Tour.

 

[rghysens]

Stage 18: Pau – Hautacam: 145,5km, high mountains + mountain top finish
Overview:
Still 4 stages to go and it’s already the last mountain stage. That’s something we don’t see in the last editions of the Giro or Vuelta, where the organizers have mountains close to race finish at their disposal. It can be done with the tour, as we saw last year, in 2011 and 2009. But when the Pyrenees are the last mountain range, it would mean a too long transfers on the last day, not in the least for the logistic caravan. So, just like in 2012, 2010, 2007,… we’ll get some flat stages and a TT during the last days.
But today, on the other hand, we get a real ASO-special, the one-and-only “let’s-crate-a-shortish-stage-where-we-link-the-Tourmalet-with-a-MTF”.

With a total length of 145,5 km we get another mountain stage that lacks some “epicness”. The race starts with a bit less than 80 flat kilometers, than the legendary Tourmalet, the most climbed col in the Tour. With 17.1km @ 7.3% it’s certainly not an easy one, but we can’t consider it surprising.

The descent of the Tourmalet is followed by 17km of gently downhill false flat and then the final climb towards Hautacam, who celebrates its 20th anniversary this year (first used in 1994, in a 264km). In those 20 years it some tarnished winners like Luc Leblanc, Bjarne Riis, Lance Armstrong and Leonardo Piepoli. Well, it only saw tarnished winners. Will that be a bad omen for the winner today? Anyway, being 13.6km @ 7.8% Hautacam certainly deserves its HC-label. There are even some really steep pitches (above 10%) in the second half.

Predictions:
A lot will depend on the standings in GC: if the leader has a good gap on the second, I can see a break taking it. But if it’s a close battle, I think he who thinks himself the best climber will let his team work to get the stage win.

 

[rghysens]

Stage 19: Maubourget/Pays du Val d’Adour – Bergerac : 208.5km, flat
Overview :
A flat stage heading north. Far enough from the coast to avoid cross winds, but not far enough to cross hillier terrain.

The little (1.3km @ 7.6%) climb with a bit less than 15km to go might provide some fireworks, the rest of the stage won’t.

Predictions:
A break for the major part of the day, and if no sprinter is really dominant, I can see this stage finishing in a sprint.

 

[rghysens]

Stage 20: Bergerac – Périgueux: 54km, TT
Overview:
Only one stage to go, and just now the first TT of the Tour is held.

As you can see, the 54km from Bergerac to Périgueux are far from flat, whitout featuring real hills (except one a few km before the finish). On a course in the opposite direction (and 10km longer) Indurain completely obliterated his opposition in 1994. He won with 2’ in front of Rominger and more than 4’ in front of the rest. That day we knew the Tour would be over.
Now the same can be said: after the TT, the Tour will be over, but that’s because there’s only the parade to the Champs Elysées is left.
This TT mostly makes use of narrow local roads, without many straight sections. This may be unfavorable to the real powerhouses. Since it’s at the end of the tour, recuperation will play a big role, maybe even more than pure talent against the clock.

Predictions:
Given his performance in the tour of Switzerland, it’s hard ro look past Tony Martin, but anything can happen in a month from here.

 

[rghysens]

Stage 21: Évry - Paris/Champs Élysées: 137.5km, flat
Overview:
The usual parade.

Predictions:
Shots of the jersey winners (Froome, Sagan, Pinot and ???) shaking hands, the podium shaking hands, sipping champagne, smoking a sigar, changing helmets with the "motards", The smallest and tallest rider of the peloton changing bikes,...
At the entrance of Paris the team of the soon-to-be-winner takes the lead untill the peloton cross the finishline for the first time, then some attacks followed by a sprint, won by...Kittel

 

[Netserk]

Very nice

 

[Eshnar]

Finally somebody did follow my steps
Very good work!

 

[christopherrowe]

Fantastic stuff, thanks!

Could a mod maybe drop an "r" in at the end of "Tou" in the current thread heading?

 

[The Hitch]

Why wouldn't the favourites fight on La Mauselaine?

10% finish for 2k, no downhill or flat afterwards, very likely at least someone will have a go, nothing to lose. Can't see them holding hands on such a finish.