Tour de France 2019: Second rest day: Who will win le TDF?

[hfer07]

Re: Tour de France 2019: Second rest day: Who will win le TD

There are only two riders that truly deserve to win this Tour 2019, because of the aggressiveness they've displayed during the race so far:

Pinot & Landa

I'd be delighted if either one of them win

Alaphilippe hasn’t been aggressive enough for you?!

Too aggressive but Ala won't be able to win it

 

[luckyboy]

Thomas will probably hit top form in the Alps. He was already better at Prat d'Albis. Wouldn't be a surprise to see him win.

 

[Publicus]

Re:

Thomas will probably hit top form in the Alps. He was already better at Prat d'Albis. Wouldn't be a surprise to see him win.

He's said that but I think he's overstating things. He was feeling crappy enough that he "freed" EB to follow attacks (ostensibly because he couldn't--I mean why let JA ride away from you if you can avoid it?). It was only when the gradient lessened that he put in any kind of an effort and managed to drop and already blown JA. I think we need to see him/the team go on the offensive to get back time on JA before I believe his form is truly on the rise.

 

[Tonton]

Re: Re:

Thomas will probably hit top form in the Alps. He was already better at Prat d'Albis. Wouldn't be a surprise to see him win.

He's said that but I think he's overstating things. He was feeling crappy enough that he "freed" EB to follow attacks (ostensibly because he couldn't--I mean why let JA ride away from you if you can avoid it?). It was only when the gradient lessened that he put in any kind of an effort and managed to drop and already blown JA. I think we need to see him/the team go on the offensive to get back time on JA before I believe his form is truly on the rise.

This.

As for the "stupid" Pinot take, taking the wrong side of a roundabout turned out to be a mistake, it's a stroke of bad luck more than anything. And good may have come out of it, as he had to attack to regain time and in the process found out that he was, is, the better rider. And that is big.

 

[movingtarget]

Thomas clearly not in the same form as last year so if he wins it it will be a big miss for the other contenders. If Landa didn't have the Giro in his legs I think he would go close looking at the final stages. Can't see Alaphillipe lasting. I'd be surprised if he landed on the podium. Pinot has to take advanantage of his great climbing form but as always with him it will come down to consistency in the final week.

 

[Koronin]

Re:

I just did a count.

The riders in the current top 10 have accumulated a grand total of 14 top 10's in previous Tours!

Valverde accounts for almost half of those (6).

Among the 14 top 10's there is one victory, one second place, two third places.

Pinot and Landa are the only riders beside Valverde who have more than one top 10 of those in the current top 10.

Alaphilippe, Buchmann and Bernal have accumulated no Grand Tour top 10's at all. Thomas and Fuglsang both have just 1. Landa has 4, Pinot 5, Urán and Kruijswijk 6, Valverde 17 (!).

The entire top 10 have won two Grand Tours between them. But 7 monuments (3 different) with four different riders.

This really is the Tour for the rookies! And Valverde.

Wow, those are some crazy stats. Of course Valverde has just over half of the monument wins (4) to with having almost half the Tour top 10s. Valverde has more top 10s (as of before this race ends) than the entire rest of the current riders in the top 10 put together. Now that is an interesting stat by it's self.

 

[tobydawq]

Not true. They have 23, he has 17.

 

[del1962]

Re:

Not true. They have 23, he has 17.

He said Tour top tens not grand Tours

 

[tobydawq]

Re: Re:

Not true. They have 23, he has 17.

He said Tour top tens not grand Tours

I don't think she specified. And in any case, it's still wrong because Valverde has 6, the rest have 8 (I did say that he had almost half in my original post).

 

[Bardamu]

Re: Re:

Thomas will probably hit top form in the Alps. He was already better at Prat d'Albis. Wouldn't be a surprise to see him win.

He's said that but I think he's overstating things. He was feeling crappy enough that he "freed" EB to follow attacks (ostensibly because he couldn't--I mean why let JA ride away from you if you can avoid it?). It was only when the gradient lessened that he put in any kind of an effort and managed to drop and already blown JA. I think we need to see him/the team go on the offensive to get back time on JA before I believe his form is truly on the rise.

This.

As for the "stupid" Pinot take, taking the wrong side of a roundabout turned out to be a mistake, it's a stroke of bad luck more than anything. And good may have come out of it, as he had to attack to regain time and in the process found out that he was, is, the better rider. And that is big.

No, it was stupid. The whole peloton knew what was coming and then you you have to pay attention.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Pinot 30%
Thomas 20%
Bernal 19%
Kruijswijk 18%
Alaphilippe 10%
Landa 2%
Buchmann 1%

 

[RattaKuningas]

I really hope that Alaphilippe manages to win Tour de France this year and despite last stage I still think that he has a good chance to win. I doubt that he will try to follow Pinot at all costs like he did during the last time and rather sets his own pace or follows other wheels to limit losses as good as he can. And I am not even sure that Pinot is going to better than Alaphilippe on each of the three mountain stages.

 

[Fergoose]

I'm going with Bernal because:

- Poels is coming into form and can stabilise Ineos and neutralise attacks from anyone but Pinot.
- Pinot has been vocal about enjoying cooler conditions, which he won't get.
- i dont think heat or altitude favour Thomas in the way they should favour Bernal.
- Ineos owner is on the record as saying any Ineos riders who win events wont necessarily be British (so he won't be pushing for that like Sky might have)
- I don't think Mas will recover from being that weak, so Alaphillipe will likely be consistently isolated.
- Jumbo seem to have peaked and I cant see Steven K picking up time on all his rivals.
- Buchman doesn't have the team or explosivity to pick up time gains.
- Bernal perhaps more likely to pick up bonus seconds than Thomas at any summit finish.

I can't see it being decided before Saturday though. Maybe Alaphillipe will win it with bonus seconds in Paris!

 

[Cookster15]

I picked Bernal good at altitude and seems to be improving slightly. But really Pinot, Kruijswijk or Thomas can still win IMO.

Against Thomas is he came into form late - unlike 2018. He doesn't have the train like he did last year. No Froome is part of that but the others don't seem as strong?

Pinot is fantastic but can he keep that up in the Alpes I don't know?

Kruijswijk would be fantastic retribution for the 2016 Giro. His team is also strong.

Mas is out of it and I don't think Alaphillipe can hang on in the mountains to come.

Great Tour!

 

[Big Doopie]

Re: Tour de France 2019: Second rest day: Who will win le TD

Pinot and Landa are natural allies at this point.

The two best climbers.

Right now, by “working together”, Pinot could win the whole thing and Landa could move onto podium.

 

[glassmoon]

gt

 

[Blanco]

Re:

I'm going with Bernal because:

- Poels is coming into form and can stabilise Ineos and neutralise attacks from anyone but Pinot.
- Pinot has been vocal about enjoying cooler conditions, which he won't get.
- i dont think heat or altitude favour Thomas in the way they should favour Bernal.
- Ineos owner is on the record as saying any Ineos riders who win events wont necessarily be British (so he won't be pushing for that like Sky might have)
- I don't think Mas will recover from being that weak, so Alaphillipe will likely be consistently isolated.
- Jumbo seem to have peaked and I cant see Steven K picking up time on all his rivals.
- Buchman doesn't have the team or explosivity to pick up time gains.
- Bernal perhaps more likely to pick up bonus seconds than Thomas at any summit finish.

I can't see it being decided before Saturday though. Maybe Alaphillipe will win it with bonus seconds in Paris!

I see that you're mentioning explosivity, bonus seconds, etc. Let me assure you, this race will not going to be won with that. Alps will be ultimate test of strength and endurance, and only the best climbers will stand a chance. I predict that already at the first Alpine stage we will see total carnage. The gaps will be measured in minutes.

 

[jaylew]

Re:

I have more trouble coming up with reasonable scenarios where Kruijswijk or Buchmann win so for me it's mostly a 4 man race but I really don't have any idea which one of them it's going to be.

I'm surprised that Alaphilippe isn't getting more love in the poll. It's not like he totally cracked. He just paid for trying to go with Pinot and I think he'd have been ok if he'd have stayed in the Thomas group. I do get that we're expecting him to really crack at some point but if he races a bit smarter he could still win this. I mean he's still up by 1:35 and almost 2 minutes on PInot.

As for the others,

Is this really a new Pinot or will he have a Pinot day? Starting to lean towards the former but I'm not convinced just yet.
Bernal is relatively inexperienced, seems deferential and could possibly have to sacrifice at some point for Thomas.
I don't think Thomas can win unless his form is on the way up which is definitely possible.
Landa is strong but not strong enough and too far back

Anyway, I'm loving this. We have no idea who will win or even who will make up the podium with a week to go. I'm currently thinking something like this but I change my mind frequently.

Alaphilippe 20%
Pinot 25%
Bernal 25%
Thomas 15%
Someone else 15%

I wonder what the results of a new poll would be after today? I'm thinking now something like:

Alaphilippe 23%
Pinot 17%
Bernal 33%
Thomas 17%
Someone else 10%

 

[Pantani_lives]

After today:

Bernal 33%
Pinot 20%
Thomas 16%
Kruijswijk 15%
Alaphilippe 10%
Buchmann 3%
Quintana 2%
Landa 1%

 

[topcat]

I went for Ala. He might still do it, but after today I'm not 100% confident. Any chance of getting Quintana as one of the poll options now?

 

[JosephK]

Re: Tour de France 2019: Second rest day: Who will win le TD

At the end of stage 18, riders #2 through 6 are still less than 45 seconds apart. If one of them feels really good tomorrow and has a go, who knows? Quintana has moved into a wildcard slot. What a resurrection that would be if he pulled off another stage like today on tomorrow's stage. Can't imagine he'd have the legs for it. But this is a strange and exciting Tour.

Of course, right now, it looks like Bernal has grabbed the mojo. Still 90 seconds down on Ala, though. Pinot? He needs to have a great day. Avoiding a bad day will not be enough.

P.S. -- Turns out to have been the worst of days for him (stage 19).

 

[Fergoose]

Re: Re:

I'm going with Bernal because:

- Poels is coming into form and can stabilise Ineos and neutralise attacks from anyone but Pinot.
- Pinot has been vocal about enjoying cooler conditions, which he won't get.
- i dont think heat or altitude favour Thomas in the way they should favour Bernal.
- Ineos owner is on the record as saying any Ineos riders who win events wont necessarily be British (so he won't be pushing for that like Sky might have)
- I don't think Mas will recover from being that weak, so Alaphillipe will likely be consistently isolated.
- Jumbo seem to have peaked and I cant see Steven K picking up time on all his rivals.
- Buchman doesn't have the team or explosivity to pick up time gains.
- Bernal perhaps more likely to pick up bonus seconds than Thomas at any summit finish.

I can't see it being decided before Saturday though. Maybe Alaphillipe will win it with bonus seconds in Paris!

I see that you're mentioning explosivity, bonus seconds, etc. Let me assure you, this race will not going to be won with that. Alps will be ultimate test of strength and endurance, and only the best climbers will stand a chance. I predict that already at the first Alpine stage we will see total carnage. The gaps will be measured in minutes.

Well, by explosivity I mainly meant the ability to gap your rivals with a short burst. Thomas tried today and failed, Bernal made it three successful explosive attacks out of three on this tour. I'm happy enough with how my prediction is coming along and with my logic.