Tour de France 2019 stage 5 St D -Vosges - Colmar 175.5km

Tour de France 2019 stage 5 Saint-Dié-des-Vosges - Colmar 175.5 km
Stage 5 of the Tour de France is a ride through the middle mountains from Saint-Dié-des-Vosges to Colmar. The hilly route amounts to 175,5 kilometres.
The flag is dropped in Saint-Dié-des-Vosges in the glacial and green valley of the river La Meurthe. The route moves through Ballons des Vosges Regional Nature Park. Contrary to the first four stages the route goes either up or down. A perfect warm-up for stage 6 – to La Planche des Belles Filles.
En route the riders tackle four classified climbs. Côte de Grendelbruch (3.4 kilometres at 4.9%) is crested in the first half of the race, while Côte du Haut-Koenigsbourg (5.9 kilometres at 5.9%) and Côte des Trois Épis (5 kilometres at 6.7%) are crested with 66 kilometres and 35 kilometres remaining.
Following the Trois Épis a last climb lays waiting to stir things up. The Côte des Cinq Châteux – 4.6 kilometres at 6.1% – peaks with almost 15 kilometres out. The route plunges down to the valley for a flat run-in of 11 kilometres to the line.
The 2009 Tour de France visited Colmar in the rain-swept 13th stage. Heinrich Haussler soloed to victory, more than 4 minutes ahead of Amets Txurruka and Brice Feillu.
Start 13.15 CET
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Finish - nasty pinch point near finish
 
With only 20 seconds on Van Aert and 40 on Matthews, both of whom are sure to try and hit the break tomorrow, I am wondering if we will actually see the yellow jersey in the break?

Instead of spending all day trying to keep the gap down, DQ could let Alaphilippe go (maybe bring a guy or two), and then it would be up to the GC teams to keep the gap within overall reason (6-8 minutes).

I could see a big bunch of classics riders get quite a gap, while the GC teams save themselves for stage 6.
 
This is the obligatory medium mountain breakaway stage. The only thing that is guaranteed is that De Gendt and De Marchi will be there.

Based on what I saw in Paris-Nice, I have Oliver Naesen as my pick. I think he can climb with these breakaway specialists and outsprint them if they arrive together.

Van Baarle was my second choice but he is locked in his role as an Ineos dom.
 
Re:

Broccolidwarf said:
With only 20 seconds on Van Aert and 40 on Matthews, both of whom are sure to try and hit the break tomorrow, I am wondering if we will actually see the yellow jersey in the break?

Instead of spending all day trying to keep the gap down, DQ could let Alaphilippe go (maybe bring a guy or two), and then it would be up to the GC teams to keep the gap within overall reason (6-8 minutes).

I could see a big bunch of classics riders get quite a gap, while the GC teams save themselves for stage 6.
That would be the wisest thing to do. I can't see QS would lead the peloton all day with a team not suited to such terrain which probably still would result in him losing the jersey. Its not all that common to go in the break like that in the yellow jersey, Greg did it in 2016 I remember, along with some dude in 1997 on the legendary Arcalis stage which obviously is totally irrelevant, but still.

For sure I will be watching from start to finish.
 
I'm not sure Alaphilippe will be allowed to do a "Voeckler".

But it depends on what's on the agenda for the other teams. Many of them must be thinking about conserving energy before the first real summit finish?
 
As the GC guys will be saving themselves for Thursday's stage 6, a half-decent break could take it. De Gendt is already nearly 14 minutes down so he might well give it a go. Wellens to go for more KOM points? I suppose QS will lead the GC teams home with Ala having a go on the last climb.
 

Wvv

Jan 3, 2019
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Expect a lot of Belgians in the breakaway. C'mon Greg. With some luck there could be a maillot jaune attached to it.
 
Re:

Velolover2 said:
I'm not sure Alaphilippe will be allowed to do a "Voeckler".

But it depends on what's on the agenda for the other teams. Many of them must be thinking about conserving energy before the first real summit finish?
Nobody would mind Alaphilippe being 8 minutes ahead after tomorrow, everyone knows he will lose at least an hour in the mountains.
 
For my CG team I'm really hoping for De Gendt and De Marchi to be in the break and if I'm lucky both finish in the top 5 for the stage. That would be great.

Yes, I expect the break to take this stage as well.
 
Re: Re:

Broccolidwarf said:
Velolover2 said:
I'm not sure Alaphilippe will be allowed to do a "Voeckler".

But it depends on what's on the agenda for the other teams. Many of them must be thinking about conserving energy before the first real summit finish?
Nobody would mind Alaphilippe being 8 minutes ahead after tomorrow, everyone knows he will lose at least an hour in the mountains.
Maybe he has just deliberately tanked on long climbs the last years to fool the world and win the Tour after such a gift :cool:
 
Long possible list of candidates for the break tommrrow including

Matej Mohorič
Lilian Calmejane
Oliver Naesen
Tim Wellens
Niki Terpstra
Tony Gallopin
Lennard Kämna
Sergio Henao

The thing is I think D QS will chase as will Bora or CCC if they are not in the break
Sunweb too
 
Re: Re:

tobydawq said:
Broccolidwarf said:
Velolover2 said:
I'm not sure Alaphilippe will be allowed to do a "Voeckler".

But it depends on what's on the agenda for the other teams. Many of them must be thinking about conserving energy before the first real summit finish?
Nobody would mind Alaphilippe being 8 minutes ahead after tomorrow, everyone knows he will lose at least an hour in the mountains.
Maybe he has just deliberately tanked on long climbs the last years to fool the world and win the Tour after such a gift :cool:
Dont think Alaphilippe is even capable of thinking about such a ploy lol. That would be the rider I least expected to tank like that in the whole peloton, guy is a freaking maniac lmao.
 
Re:

HelloDolly said:
Long possible list of candidates for the break tommrrow including

Matej Mohorič
Lilian Calmejane
Oliver Naesen
Tim Wellens
Niki Terpstra
Tony Gallopin
Lennard Kämna
Sergio Henao

The thing is I think D QS will chase as will Bora or CCC if they are not in the break
Sunweb too
Of the danes, I'm certain we'll see both Valgren and Würtz trying to get away. The stage is pretty much tailor made for an in-form Valgren..... whether he is that, remains to be seen. If Valgren goes, Bak may also, purely in a support role.
Würtz who's been under the radar for a while, is a similar rider type to Valgren, though slightly less punchy but stronger on the flat.

I'm also 80 % sure the Kraghen will try, depending on what the plans are for Matthews. If his form is like last years tour, tomorrows stage would be one he can win.

I'd have picked Asgreen to go with Alaphilippe as well, if he decides to join the party, but after his crash that is highly uncertain. It will probably be Lampaert and/or Devenyns.
 
Re: Tour de France 2019 stage 5 St D -Vosges - Colmar 175.5k

I wouldn't let Alaf' take 8 minutes, but I see the reasoning from a team standpoint to get him in a break and see what happens.

GC wise I don't see any action on the eve of PDBF.

Nice OP Robert, I'll try to out-do you tomorrow ;) .
 
Re: Tour de France 2019 stage 5 St D -Vosges - Colmar 175.5k

Nice OP Robert, I'll try to out-do you tomorrow ;) .
Merci, Monsieur Tonton. Hope the forum works! :D

Every non-GC guy and his dog to try to get in the break - be an interesting start to the stage.
 
Re:

Wvv said:
Expect a lot of Belgians in the breakaway. C'mon Greg. With some luck there could be a maillot jaune attached to it.
I think he has more chances in stages 8 and 9 considering that Alaphilippe won't give up today whereas a GC rider in yellow after thursday will be more than happy to give away the jersey until Tourmalet and a 5/10 minutes break is likely in both stages so he can easily gain back the time he's going to lose on the Planche des Belles Filles.

For today i can see two scenarios, one with Alaphilippe staying in the group and Quick-Step controlling a pretty weak break with the help of riders interested in a reduced sprint and another with the favourites for the stage forming a too strong break and so Alaphilippe forced to follow them with Sky limiting the losses behind. The problem could be that in both cases Alaphilippe will also be the biggest favourite after monday's showing so either Quick-Step in the group or him in the break could be isolated.
 
Mar 6, 2011
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Re:

Flamin said:
Love these kind of stages from a betting perspective.

The fight for the break should be mayhem. I can see GVA taking it. He looks better than I anticipated.
Yeah I always enjoy these stage as there are a number of different ways and rider types who can win

I expect it will be some battle sorting out the breakaway and some of those we expect wont make it. My pick is Patrick Bevin.
 
Interesting stage from a tactical point of view and the route is quite good for an intermediate stage. The breakaway group should be pretty big. De Gendt, Barguil and others will have been been waiting for a stage like this. Wonder if Matthews will also go in the break ?
 

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