Tour de France Tour de France 2021, Stage 19: Mourenx – Libourne, 207.0 km

Stage 19: Mourenx – Libourne, 207.0 km
One more flat stage before Paris. It’s the final opportunity for a breakaway to succeed, given the distance and the field, there will be quite a few people thinking they have a shot.

Map and profile




Route details
The first portion of the stage is rolling, featuring the solitary GPM at Côte de Bareille…



…prior to a series of small, uncategorised climbs. The last of these has the intermediate sprint at its crest.



The uncategorised climb at about 35 kilometers to go looks like this, even in the third week it’s unlikely to have much of an impact.



Final kilometers
The route stays on the ring road, so it’s very straightforward.



 
also there are so few quality sprinters left in this race that I will be very dissapointed if QS do a hard chase instead of sportingly letting a break have this one and try for the swag of breaking the record in Paris.
 
Quickstep to control the break with everyone, even Cattaneo because he is 9 mins ahead of 13th, to make up for no wins during the mountains and get 7 wins as a team. Bike exchange to help after 75 km thinking Matthews can win on the slight uphill.
 
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Reactions: claude cat
also there are so few quality sprinters left in this race that I will be very dissapointed if QS do a hard chase instead of sportingly letting a break have this one and try for the swag of breaking the record in Paris.
My preferred outcome.

Tho I wouldnt blame DQS for trying at Libourne, as nothing is guaranteed in Paris.
 
My preferred outcome.

Tho I wouldnt blame DQS for trying at Libourne, as nothing is guaranteed in Paris.
I think they'll make a decision in the first 50km or so based on; How's Cav feeling? How big is the break? Who's in it? Who's still trying to get into it? What are UAE doing to control the race? Are Alpecin/DSM/BEX going to help chase? Is Matthews trying to get into the break?
 
Break or Cavendish?

Usually a long stage this late in the Tour with only one team greatly motivated to chase would be 80%+ likelihood of the break. But the wildcard is Cevendish chasing the record. Although he will be clear favourite on the Champs Elysees, I am sure he would prefer two shots at it rather than one.

On the other hand, he is clearly tired and would love another day of "recovery" before the Champs Elysees. He looked really laboured in the intermediate sprint last night.

This makes me lean towards the break but only narrowly.

I'm going with:

- Naesen (67-1, looks to have great form right now)

- Kwiatkowski (50-1, likewise great form and surely Ineos will let him free)

- Devenyns (325-1, If DQS decide to put all their eggs in the Stage 21 basket then he might be rewarded for many years of loyal service with the freedom to chase a stage win. At age 37 and in his 7th Tour, it would be pretty cool to give him a shot at it).
 
Reactions: gregrowlerson
Break or Cavendish?

Usually a long stage this late in the Tour with only one team greatly motivated to chase would be 80%+ likelihood of the break. But the wildcard is Cevendish chasing the record. Although he will be clear favourite on the Champs Elysees, I am sure he would prefer two shots at it rather than one.

On the other hand, he is clearly tired and would love another day of "recovery" before the Champs Elysees. He looked really laboured in the intermediate sprint last night.

This makes me lean towards the break but only narrowly.

I'm going with:

- Naesen (67-1, looks to have great form right now)

- Kwiatkowski (50-1, likewise great form and surely Ineos will let him free)

- Devenyns (325-1, If DQS decide to put all their eggs in the Stage 21 basket then he might be rewarded for many years of loyal service with the freedom to chase a stage win. At age 37 and in his 7th Tour, it would be pretty cool to give him a shot at it).
I just remembered that you've the guy who correctly predicted Josef Cerny to win STAGE 19 of last years Giro :)

Sell all of your Bitcoin and load up on these three riders boys.
 
No wonder Cav is tired if he is doing sprints during the night.
Sprints and reconing mountain stages during the night, performing worse during the day, lust for green which is made from blue which is unoxygenated blood, sprinters literally climbing for their lives in the mountains, rejuvenated at 36, and avoiding Morton…..

Are we sure Cavendish and by extension Quickstep are not vampires?
 
Reactions: RedheadDane
Sprints and reconing mountain stages during the night, performing worse during the day, lust for green which is made from blue which is unoxygenated blood, sprinters literally climbing for their lives in the mountains, rejuvenated at 36, and avoiding Morton…..

Are we sure Cavendish and by extension Quickstep are not vampires?
I don't think so. Lefevere might be a vampire though, considering how he sometimes fails to understand human behaviour.
 

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