Tour de France Tour de France 2021, Stage 19: Mourenx – Libourne, 207.0 km

[Devil's Elbow]

Stage 19: Mourenx – Libourne, 207.0 km
One more flat stage before Paris. It’s the final opportunity for a breakaway to succeed, given the distance and the field, there will be quite a few people thinking they have a shot.

Map and profile

Route details
The first portion of the stage is rolling, featuring the solitary GPM at Côte de Bareille…

…prior to a series of small, uncategorised climbs. The last of these has the intermediate sprint at its crest.

The uncategorised climb at about 35 kilometers to go looks like this, even in the third week it’s unlikely to have much of an impact.

Final kilometers
The route stays on the ring road, so it’s very straightforward.

 

[sir fly]

Another breakaway chance, I agree.
Weaker time trialists among rouleurs to feature here.

 

[Warhawk]

Pog solo breakaway on the cat 4 followed by 195km ITT?

No but seriously I think it's bunch sprint time again. Well, Cav sprint, bunch sorta mill around in the general vicinity.

 

[fbjim]

huge break resulting in a 7 minute GC bomb for G-Mart again. The podium is on

 

[fbjim]

also there are so few quality sprinters left in this race that I will be very dissapointed if QS do a hard chase instead of sportingly letting a break have this one and try for the swag of breaking the record in Paris.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Quickstep to control the break with everyone, even Cattaneo because he is 9 mins ahead of 13th, to make up for no wins during the mountains and get 7 wins as a team. Bike exchange to help after 75 km thinking Matthews can win on the slight uphill.

 

[Leinster]

How are the winds forecast for tomorrow? At this stage of the Tour nobody's likely to go for the Ruban Janue, right?

La Vuelta ciclista a España 2019 Stage 17 results

Philippe Gilbert is the winner of La Vuelta ciclista a España 2019 Stage 17, before Sam Bennett and Rémi Cavagna. Primož RogliÄ was leader in GC.

www.procyclingstats.com

 

[Dazed and Confused]

There got to be at least 50 riders who wants to win this stage from a break. Methinks it will be a tough day in the saddle for the hotsteppers.....

 

[Red Rick]

Missed opportunity that this stage isn't at least 260km long.

 

[titan31]

Sprint I'd say. There'll be teams dumb enough to help DQS (looking at you Alpecin)

 

[Leinster]

Sprint I'd say. There'll be teams dumb enough to help DQS (looking at you Alpecin)

Will they? I mean, I guess a sprint for Philipsen is their best chance of another stage win at this point, but do they really want to beat their own heads against that wall again? Will DSM?

 

[broppo]

Will they? I mean, I guess a sprint for Philipsen is their best chance of another stage win at this point, but do they really want to beat their own heads against that wall again? Will DSM?

dsm will for sure, this is a great stage for Bol to come 11th!

 

[Scarponi]

I get the problem with backloading GTs but who wants to see this? Not even going to tune in.

 

[dgodave]

also there are so few quality sprinters left in this race that I will be very dissapointed if QS do a hard chase instead of sportingly letting a break have this one and try for the swag of breaking the record in Paris.

My preferred outcome.

Tho I wouldnt blame DQS for trying at Libourne, as nothing is guaranteed in Paris.

 

[Leinster]

My preferred outcome.

Tho I wouldnt blame DQS for trying at Libourne, as nothing is guaranteed in Paris.

I think they'll make a decision in the first 50km or so based on; How's Cav feeling? How big is the break? Who's in it? Who's still trying to get into it? What are UAE doing to control the race? Are Alpecin/DSM/BEX going to help chase? Is Matthews trying to get into the break?

 

[SHAD0W93]

Will they? I mean, I guess a sprint for Philipsen is their best chance of another stage win at this point, but do they really want to beat their own heads against that wall again? Will DSM?

They already have led Cavendish out for 2 of his sprints. Might as well make it a hat trick.

 

[The Barb]

Break or Cavendish?

Usually a long stage this late in the Tour with only one team greatly motivated to chase would be 80%+ likelihood of the break. But the wildcard is Cevendish chasing the record. Although he will be clear favourite on the Champs Elysees, I am sure he would prefer two shots at it rather than one.

On the other hand, he is clearly tired and would love another day of "recovery" before the Champs Elysees. He looked really laboured in the intermediate sprint last night.

This makes me lean towards the break but only narrowly.

I'm going with:

- Naesen (67-1, looks to have great form right now)

- Kwiatkowski (50-1, likewise great form and surely Ineos will let him free)

- Devenyns (325-1, If DQS decide to put all their eggs in the Stage 21 basket then he might be rewarded for many years of loyal service with the freedom to chase a stage win. At age 37 and in his 7th Tour, it would be pretty cool to give him a shot at it).

 

[Amazinmets87]

I get the problem with backloading GTs but who wants to see this? Not even going to tune in.

The organisers couldn't have foreseen it, but I'm more intrigued by this stage than the previous 2 mountain stages.

At least the last 10KMs...

 

[gregrowlerson]

Break or Cavendish?

Usually a long stage this late in the Tour with only one team greatly motivated to chase would be 80%+ likelihood of the break. But the wildcard is Cevendish chasing the record. Although he will be clear favourite on the Champs Elysees, I am sure he would prefer two shots at it rather than one.

On the other hand, he is clearly tired and would love another day of "recovery" before the Champs Elysees. He looked really laboured in the intermediate sprint last night.

This makes me lean towards the break but only narrowly.

I'm going with:

- Naesen (67-1, looks to have great form right now)

- Kwiatkowski (50-1, likewise great form and surely Ineos will let him free)

- Devenyns (325-1, If DQS decide to put all their eggs in the Stage 21 basket then he might be rewarded for many years of loyal service with the freedom to chase a stage win. At age 37 and in his 7th Tour, it would be pretty cool to give him a shot at it).

I just remembered that you've the guy who correctly predicted Josef Cerny to win STAGE 19 of last years Giro

Sell all of your Bitcoin and load up on these three riders boys.

 

[shalgo]

On the other hand, he is clearly tired and would love another day of "recovery" before the Champs Elysees. He looked really laboured in the intermediate sprint last night.

No wonder Cav is tired if he is doing sprints during the night.

 

[Warhawk]

No wonder Cav is tired if he is doing sprints during the night.

That's why he's so good, all the other sprinters are getting their beauty sleep, he's out there hustling kids in sprints outside nightclubs at 3 AM.

 

[gregrowlerson]

That's why he's so good, all the other sprinters are getting their beauty sleep, he's out there hustling kids in sprints outside nightclubs at 3 AM.

Those kids are probably intoxicated so maybe this should be moved to the clinic.

 

[SHAD0W93]

No wonder Cav is tired if he is doing sprints during the night.

Sprints and reconing mountain stages during the night, performing worse during the day, lust for green which is made from blue which is unoxygenated blood, sprinters literally climbing for their lives in the mountains, rejuvenated at 36, and avoiding Morton…..

Are we sure Cavendish and by extension Quickstep are not vampires?

 

[Bonimenier]

Asgreen from the breakaway will win this stage. Peloton to finish on 20 minutes.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Sprints and reconing mountain stages during the night, performing worse during the day, lust for green which is made from blue which is unoxygenated blood, sprinters literally climbing for their lives in the mountains, rejuvenated at 36, and avoiding Morton…..

Are we sure Cavendish and by extension Quickstep are not vampires?

I don't think so. Lefevere might be a vampire though, considering how he sometimes fails to understand human behaviour.