No.It seems set. Thomas better than the rest but worse than Vignegaard/Pogacar. Pogacar unable to drop Vingegaard. But even if we assign 75% of probability to the likely placings (and thats probably to high anyway), we get only 42% of likelihood of 1. Vingegaard, 2. Pogacar, 3. Thomas. So its probably way more likely that something changes than not (even if its only among the 3 riders themselves).
It is only true if they are uncorrelated, which is obviously false. If Vingegaard doesn't win, Pogi doesn't have 75 % chance to stay in 2nd place. I think they are highly correlated, so if you think Vingegaard is 75 % likely to win, the podium order as it is now is 60-70 % likely to stay that way.