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Tour de France Tour de France 2022: Final rest day thread

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Final GC outcome?

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Netserk

Netserk

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ppanther92 said:
It seems set. Thomas better than the rest but worse than Vignegaard/Pogacar. Pogacar unable to drop Vingegaard. But even if we assign 75% of probability to the likely placings (and thats probably to high anyway), we get only 42% of likelihood of 1. Vingegaard, 2. Pogacar, 3. Thomas. So its probably way more likely that something changes than not (even if its only among the 3 riders themselves).
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No.

It is only true if they are uncorrelated, which is obviously false. If Vingegaard doesn't win, Pogi doesn't have 75 % chance to stay in 2nd place. I think they are highly correlated, so if you think Vingegaard is 75 % likely to win, the podium order as it is now is 60-70 % likely to stay that way.
 
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Armchair Cyclist

Armchair Cyclist

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Ilmaestro99 said:
But it seems Thomas just doesn't have that instinct. He is naturally totally Conservative when it comes to racing. I'm sure he would rather win but he probably won't race for it. I hope he does.
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With a lower case c, he might accept that as a commentary on his racing style (though he probably wouldn't want to agree)
With a capital C, he would probaby be furious at the suggestion.
 
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ppanther92

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Netserk said:
No.

It is only true if they are uncorrelated, which is obviously false. If Vingegaard doesn't win, Pogi doesn't have 75 % chance to stay in 2nd place. I think they are highly correlated, so if you think Vingegaard is 75 % likely to win, the podium order as it is now is 60-70 % likely to stay that way.
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Yes, true. Good point. Depends on the degree of correlation though. But it certainly is positive, you are right.
 
spalco

spalco

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The betting odds are approximately 1:2 for Vingegaard, 2:1 for Pogacar, 14:1 for Thomas; I think Pogacar is the best bet out of those. There are lots of scenarios where Vingegaard could still lose this, and Pogacar has proven his ability to improve in the third week before.
 
Lequack

Lequack

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Yesterdays protest

FX8rwo0WYAEjNyZ


FX8rwo4WQAEAExb
 
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Gigs_98

Gigs_98

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spalco said:
The betting odds are approximately 1:2 for Vingegaard, 2:1 for Pogacar, 14:1 for Thomas; I think Pogacar is the best bet out of those. There are lots of scenarios where Vingegaard could still lose this, and Pogacar has proven his ability to improve in the third week before.
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I actually think of those 3 Thomas is the best bet. There is no way he wins without some very unexpected circumstances but if Vingegaard cracks, crashes out, gets covid, or anything of that sort, there is a very clear cut way to victory for him which is, stick to Pogacar's wheel and beat him in the TT.

Now the first set of circumstances almost has to happen anyway for Vingegaard not to win. It's very hard to see Pogacar just climbing 2 minutes faster than him in the pyrenees. Thomas limiting his losses to Pogacar and beating him in the TT is certainly unlikely, but I don't actually think it's 1:7 unlikely, so at those odds I'd take him over Pog.
 
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Andre

Andre

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Nobody in the top 20 got the corona...could that mean that whoever is 21st got it? France and Italy and Spain will not win a stage. Is that a first? Thomas the Brit will have some sort of mishap and lose his third place. Yates will fade. Jonas too strong to lose the lead. Jasper to win in the stage in Paris.
 
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ontheroad

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Gigs_98 said:
I actually think of those 3 Thomas is the best bet. There is no way he wins without some very unexpected circumstances but if Vingegaard cracks, crashes out, gets covid, or anything of that sort, there is a very clear cut way to victory for him which is, stick to Pogacar's wheel and beat him in the TT.

Now the first set of circumstances almost has to happen anyway for Vingegaard not to win. It's very hard to see Pogacar just climbing 2 minutes faster than him in the pyrenees. Thomas limiting his losses to Pogacar and beating him in the TT is certainly unlikely, but I don't actually think it's 1:7 unlikely, so at those odds I'd take him over Pog.
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I don't think Thomas will beat Pogacar in the TT let alone beat him by more than 21 seconds so sticking to his wheel is not a winning strategy. By taking that approach, he's basically gambling that Vingegaard blows up completely or crashes. If he does take this approach, Pogacar will require 2 tow bars on his bike, one each for Vingegaard and Thomas! To use a phrase, no guts no glory.

But we do know that Thomas is fairly conservative so he could still be racing simply for the podium rather than actually trying to win. He has 2 other team mates in the top 10 though so that is his potential wild card. Yates has been practically invisible the whole tour but they will have to use him sooner rather than later. Even a rider like Pidcock if he got into the break and attacked on some of the descents could do some serious damage by forcing JV to chase in behind. At the minute the odds are massively stacked in JV favour and it is their race to lose but stranger things have happened.
 
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Gigs_98

Gigs_98

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ontheroad said:
I don't think Thomas will beat Pogacar in the TT let alone beat him by more than 21 seconds so sticking to his wheel is not a winning strategy. By taking that approach, he's basically gambling that Vingegaard blows up completely or crashes. If he does take this approach, Pogacar will require 2 tow bars on his bike, one each for Vingegaard and Thomas! To use a phrase, no guts no glory.

But we do know that Thomas is fairly conservative so he could still be racing simply for the podium rather than actually trying to win. He has 2 other team mates in the top 10 though so that is his potential wild card. Yates has been practically invisible the whole tour but they will have to use him sooner rather than later. Even a rider like Pidcock if he got into the break and attacked on some of the descents could do some serious damage by forcing JV to chase in behind. At the minute the odds are massively stacked in JV favour and it is their race to lose but stranger things have happened.
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As I said, I absolutely don't think Thomas is more likely to win than Pogacar. The only question is whether Pogacar is indeed 7 times more likely to win.
 
RedheadDane

RedheadDane

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Andre said:
Nobody in the top 20 got the corona...could that mean that whoever is 21st got it? France and Italy and Spain will not win a stage. Is that a first? Thomas the Brit will have some sort of mishap and lose his third place. Yates will fade. Jonas too strong to lose the lead. Jasper to win in the stage in Paris.
Click to expand...


Jumbo already revealed all their riders are negative (it's Kuss who's 21st).
 
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HelloDolly

HelloDolly

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Firstly since Pogacar and Vingegaard are so evenly matched on climbs we really need to be looking at
Kus v Majka ...that is the real battle here
Which of these guys can help determine the race ? Because it may come down to that


madthebad said:
Well, given that Thomas has basically 0.001% chances to win the TDF, I would say those odds are fair.
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I am not sure where you learned probability but your estimation makes no sense
Sure G has been behind Pog and Vinge on the climbs but its the third week of a very hard Tour where stamina will count plus there is the TT and at the tour anything can happen...Id say the probability is much higher.If we say Vinge and Pog were twice as likely to win than Thomas then that still give Geraint a one in 5 chance but its probably nearer to 10% to 15% as Pog/Vinge are 3 times more likely to win at this point than Thomas but that probability is not fixed and can change every day
 
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