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Tour de France Tour de France 2023, stage 19: Moirans-en-Montagne - Poligny, 172.8k

The penultimate opportunity for the sprinters or, more probably, the final one for the baroudeurs.

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The route
A mid-length, rolling day through the valleys and foothills of the Jura. After starting from Moirans-en-Montagne, a small town that also hosted a start in 2016 (for a stage to Bern won by Peter Sagan), the riders start by looping around the Vouglans reservoir before doubling back on themselves. This section also contains a categorised climb, Côte du Bois de Lionge.
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From here, it's a direct route north as far as Salins-les-Bains, which is located right before the final KOM. On the outskirts of Champagnole, where Kragh won the equivalent stage three years ago, there is an intermediate sprint in Ney.
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There are some hard hills near Salins - not just Tonton's beloved Mont Poupet, the main climb of this region and this year's finish of the Tour du Jura (victory for Kévin Vauquelin), but also Côte de Thésy where Vingegaard destroyed everyone in the Dauphiné last month - but ASO has decided against using any of these. Instead, the rather indirect route into Poligny loops over the easier Côte d'Ivory, the penultimate climb of the aforementioned Dauphiné stage, which is admittedly longer than the categorised section.
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Following a reasonably straightforward descent, the final 20 kilometres are outside the Jura and therefore flattish.

Final kilometres
The final straight is 9 kilometres long! Therefore, not much to talk about here.
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The teams with sprinters will not let the break win again. In a bunch sprint, no team but Alpecin has a poisson pilote like MVDP, and no other team has a sprinter to match the aggression of Jasper Disaster Philipsen. If it was a drag race, I'd go with Dylan Groenewegen, but it's not a drag race.
 
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It won't happen. Unfortunately. He is probably the weakest rider of the race.
Quite harsh statement. He is weak though. If it is not Sagan he definitely would not make team for Tour with this shape. Last year he at least had some top 5 results this year he is not able to contest a sprint because is to hard for him to make good position. At the start of Tour he was telling slovak media he dont want to risk in sprints.
 
There are some hard hills near Salins - not just Tonton's beloved Mont Poupet, the main climb of this region and this year's finish of the Tour du Jura (victory for Kévin Vauquelin), but also Côte de Thésy where Vingegaard destroyed everyone in the Dauphiné last month - but ASO has decided against using any of these.

Thanks for the mention, and yes, that was my home. So I'll complain again: Jura stages using Roman and early medieval roads, the path of least resistance, is an insult to us. Big waste of an opportunity to make it a monument-style stage where the second tier riders get at each other's throat...shape the 5th to 10th narrative.

I hope that a break makes it. Seeing Wout get his win, some older riders stepping up, that's always nice. EBH? Sagan? How about Trentin?
 
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Jul 21, 2023
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I think many Danes have good chances to win this stage. It could be Pedersen(obvious), Skjelmose(showing good form), Cort (really need to prove himself this tour), Asgreen (Again?) or Kragh (a bit wildcard).

Who do you guys think?
 
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I think many Danes have good chances to win this stage. It could be Pedersen(obvious), Skjelmose(showing good form), Cort (really need to prove himself this tour), Asgreen (Again?) or Kragh (a bit wildcard).

Who do you guys think?

I think why would you waste Skelmose on a flat stage when he could be of better use the day after?

Even though I'd like to see a break win I think it's going to to be the inevitable MvdP-Philippsen victory.
 
Jul 21, 2023
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I think why would you waste Skelmose on a flat stage when he could be of better use the day after?

Even though I'd like to see a break win I think it's going to to be the inevitable MvdP-Philippsen victory.
Im 90% sure that it not will be a sprint for Phillipsen. If they couldnt catch them today - no chance they will catch them this time on a harder stage, with more tired legs and probaly more people going for it. But we will see who is right. Skjelmose is maybe not good enough to win the day after compared to the people he probaly will challenge on this stage, i think it suits him fine - this rute is not totally flat and his a good sprinter after “a hard race” - like Asgreen. So it could be him or one of the otters.
 
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The teams with sprinters will not let the break win again. In a bunch sprint, no team but Alpecin has a poisson pilote like MVDP, and no other team has a sprinter to match the aggression of Jasper Disaster Philipsen. If it was a drag race, I'd go with Dylan Groenewegen, but it's not a drag race.

Groenewegen could not hold Mezgec's wheel in the final of stage 18 - I suspect jayco will try for the break with Mezgec being their key rider.