Tour de France Tour de France 2025 Stage 12: Auch - Hautacam (180.6k)

Gap between Pogi and Vingo on Hautacam

  • They arrive at the finish together

    Votes: 22 16.2%
  • Pogi wins by 1-30 seconds

    Votes: 22 16.2%
  • Pogi wins by 31-60 seconds

    Votes: 29 21.3%
  • Pogi wins by over a minute

    Votes: 28 20.6%
  • Vingo wins by 1-30 seconds

    Votes: 9 6.6%
  • Vingo wins by 31-60 seconds

    Votes: 6 4.4%
  • Vingo wins by over a minute

    Votes: 7 5.1%
  • Race cancelled (due to Pogi's brushes)

    Votes: 13 9.6%

  • Total voters
    136

Finally showtime and a poll!​

Credit to @Devil's Elbow for the stage description

Stage 12: Auch – Hautacam (180.6k)​

At long last, the high mountains. Will it be the day that sets up a great Tour or the day where all excitement dies immediately?

Map and profile


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Start

A shortish transfer west has brought the peloton to Auch, capital of the Gers department. Founded by the Romans in the 1st century on the opposite bank of the Gers river, relocating to the hill on the west bank coupled with the establishment of a bishopric allowed it to survive into the Middle Ages. In the 10th century, the bishopric was elevated to an archbishopric. It appears to have come increasingly under the sway of the House of Armagnac, who eventually became so powerful that during the second half of the Hundred Years’ War they gave their name to the pro-royal Armagnac faction (as opposed to the anti-royal, more or less pro-English Burgundian faction). After the war was over, the House lost influence and its various branches joined the Duke of Burgundy in a rebellion against royal authority. The initial war ended with a treaty, but for both, it would be the last war they survived. As mentioned previously, the House of Burgundy was extinguished in 1477 and further attempts at rebellion led to Armagnac power being crushed. The capital of the new province of Armagnac was then relocated to Auch.

With that, Auch became the regional administrative centre, a position it has since retained. This sparked a wave of urban development, with construction of its cathedral starting in 1489. Other than that, there isn’t really a whole lot to say about the town’s history, having consistently been a regional centre without much impact outside of the region for over five centuries now. In cycling, it is most notable as the hometown of former Sky sporting director Nicolas Portal, who helped oversee the entirety of the team’s glory days before so tragically and prematurely dying of a heart attack in 2020, aged just 40. It hosted the Tour three years in a row from 1975 until 1977 (notably including Eddy Merckx’ last-ever Tour stage win), but never before or since prior to this stage.


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(picture by Auch.seb at Wikimedia Commons)

The route

Auch is quite a ways away from the Pyrenees, but that doesn’t mean the start of the stage is entirely flat. Instead, the riders cross a number of low ridges, which should definitely make the breakaway formation a little easier. I don’t have a profile for the first of these rises, Côte de Bordevieille, so instead we’ll skip to the Côte des Agraules, which comes after about 15 kilometres.


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The hardest climb in this opening part is the Côte de Laguian-Mazous, which should probably have been categorised.


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After this, the terrain flattens out and the next 50 kilometres feature just one rise, the Côte de Laulet.


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About halfway through the stage, it’s time for one of ASO’s favourite Pyrenean foothill climbs, Côte de Labatmale.


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This is followed by one of the worst-positioned intermediate sprints in Tour history, as Bénéjacq sits at the bottom of the descent of Labatmale.


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By this point, the mountains are well in view. The riders head up the Ouzoum valley, where, in the tiny village of Ferrières, the road heads up the mountainside and the false flat turns into the first big climb of this Tour. Party time is over, this is among the hardest cat. 1s of the race.


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Normally, we would head directly from here into the Lavedan valley, but this time there is a detour via the Col des Bordères. It’s the final 4.2k of the profile below.


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Finish

There’s a bit of narrow descending off the back of Bordères, but it lasts for only about two kilometres until the gradient lessens and the road widens. As always, the Tour skips the final 1.3 kilometres of the climb, but even with that this is among the best MTFs in the Pyrenees.


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Hautacam is a minor ski station of zero significance outside of cycling. In its six previous appearances, it has seen a lot of action, much of it clinic-tainted: Miguel Indurain dropping everyone but Leblanc in 1994, Bjarne Riis breaking all watts records with blood thicker than treacle in 1996, Lance Armstrong destroying everyone on the first MTF in 2000 (the late Javier Otxoa won that stage from the break, quoting myself below because his story is one that deserves to be remembered), Leonardo Piepoli having the win stripped almost immediately in 2008, Vincenzo Nibali underlining his dominance one last time in 2014, and then most recently Jonas Vingegaard and Wout van Aert destroying Tadej Pogacar in 2022. A certain someone will be out for revenge…


Javier Otxoa (RIP).

Wins on Hautacam in the 2000 Tour.

Car crashes into him and his twin brother Ricardo in early 2001. Ricardo was killed, Javier awoke from coma two months later... to find himself with multiple handicaps that would prevent him from ever returning to the 'regular' peloton.

Continues with the sport anyway after a long recovery process, and becomes a Paralympic champion in 2004.


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Just below the summit (picture by Anthospace at Wikimedia Commons)

What to expect?

Just how close can they get to the Hautacam record, arguably the most fearsome in the sport? In 2022, only Vingegaard was actually faster than Nibali in 2014 courtesy of Spandelles being raced as hard as possible. That time was 1:57 off Riis’ sub-35 minute ascent, climbing times have only become faster since, and this should be a much fresher effort. I am genuinely scared to see what’s possible.

Oh, and we’ll find out how Pogacar and Vingegaard compare this year. Just a minor detail.
 
So finally the Pyrenees! The wait for the mountains couldn't have been longer (not counting the overhyped stage10). Big duel between Pogacar and Vingegaard is expected over the next 3 days. Unfortunately just before this showdown Pogacar crashed but let's hope it won't impact the rivalry much.

It's hard to predict what will happen and even more speculation is needed. I expected Pogacar to attack tomorrow with Visma waiting till stage 14 with an all-out attack. My assumption (optimistic) is the crash will affect Pogacar somewhat but not that much. He probably won't be able to drop Vingegaard and vice-versa. It's likely they will finish the stage together. Not sure how aggressive Visma will be tomorrow.

Vingegaard and Pogacar should both be able to beat it. I think it breaks unless they neutralize each other.

I think that's what will happen. None of them will drop the other and they will have some slowdowns.
 
So finally the Pyrenees! The wait for the mountains couldn't have been longer (not counting the overhyped stage10). Big duel between Pogacar and Vingegaard is expected over the next 3 days. Unfortunately just before this showdown Pogacar crashed but let's hope it won't impact the rivalry much.

It's hard to predict what will happen and even more speculation is needed. I expected Pogacar to attack tomorrow with Visma waiting till stage 14 with an all-out attack. My assumption (optimistic) is the crash will affect Pogacar somewhat but not that much. He probably won't be able to drop Vingegaard and vice-versa. It's likely they will finish the stage together. Not sure how aggressive Visma will be tomorrow.



I think that's what will happen. None of them will drop the other and they will have some slowdowns.
And therefore, Remco will be closer to them.
 
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Jun 26, 2024
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My perfect scenario: Vinge to drop Pogi and gain as much time as possible until saturday. A dominant pogi is nice and all but a battered yet still ferocious Pogi, down 4 min before Ventoux, could be something to behold.
 
My perfect scenario: Vinge to drop Pogi and gain as much time as possible until saturday. A dominant pogi is nice and all but a battered yet still ferocious Pogi, down 4 min before Ventoux, could be something to behold.

It will actually be pretty boring as Visma has the better team.
It would be a repeat of 2022, only now we know how good Vingegaard ready is, so it will be a foregone conclusion if Pogacar is 4 minutes down after the Pyrenees.
 
one thing is for sure, climbing records will be broken this tour. will be fireworks all around. been great so far!

Not if they mark each other.

There's a scenario here where Pog is slightly less than what he would be due to the crash and simply marks Vinge. That sort of tight racing isn't conducive towards breaking records because neither rider will commit fully with the other on the wheel.
 
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The implication of that scenario is that Pogacar comes back to strike back in the Alps.

Yup, because the alpine stages are so nicely designed that 4 minutes are easily achievable.

Some people in here will pretend there is fun and there will be battles when in fact 4 minutes will be next to impossible to overturn.
As I said 2022 all over again with the outcome being all but clear.