Tour de France Preview Information Thread

[Froome19]

Tour Preview:
Just a stage by stage guide I wrote up that can be used as a quick reference when checking up stages.

Edit: I have not included stages 16 and 17 as they will be added soon.
stage contenders will also be completed.


Parcours; nine flat stages, four medium mountain stages (including one summit finish), five mountain stages including two summit finishes two individual time trials and one prologue.

The 2012 Tour de France will have 25 mountain level two, level one or highest level mountain passes or summit fi nishes.
They will be divided up geographically in the following way:

1 in the Vosges
3 in the Jura
4 in the Swiss Jura
6 in the Alps
11 in the Pyrenees

9 new stage towns

Abbeville, Annonay Davézieux, Bellegarde-sur-Valserine, La Planche des Belles Filles, Peyragudes, Porrentruy, Samatan, Tomblaine, Visé

Start List:

Ag2r-La Mondiale
Maxime Bouet
Mikael Cherel
Hubert Dupont
Blel Kadri
Sébastien Minard
Lloyd Mondory
Jean-Christophe Peraud
Christophe Riblon
Nicolas Roche

Argos - Shimano
Johannes Fröhlinger
Patrick Gretsch
Marcel Kittel
Yann Huguet
Matthieu Sprick
Tom Veelers
Koen de Kort
Albert Timmer
Roy Curvers

Astana
Alexandr Vinokurov
Jani Brajkovič
Borut Bozič
Dmitry Fofonov
Andriy Grivko
Maxim Iglinskiy
Andrey Kashechkin
Fredrik Kessiakoff
Robert Kiserlovski

BMC
Marcus Burghardt
Steve Cummings
Cadel Evans
Philippe Gilbert
George Hincapie
Amaël Moinard
Manuel Quinziato
Michael Schär
Tejay van Garderen

Cofidis
Rein Taaramae
Nicolas Edet
Julien Fouchard
Remy di Gregorio
David Moncoutié
Samuel Dumoulin
Jan Ghyselinck
Romain Zingle
Luis Angel Mate

Team Europcar
Thomas Voeckler
Pierre Rolland
Christophe Kern
Cyril Gautier
Yukiya Arashiro
Giovanni Bernaudeau
Yohann Gene
Vincet Jerome
Davide Malacarne

Euskaltel - Euskadi
Samuel Sanchez
Ruben Pérez
Gorka Verdugo
Amets Txurruka
Mikel Astarloza
Pablo Urtasun
Gorka Izagirre
Egoi Martinez
Jorge Azanza

FDJ-BigMat
Sandy Casar
Cedric Pineau
Pierrick Fédrigo
Matthew Ladagnous
Jeremy Roy
Arthur Vichot
Thibaut Pinot
Anthony Roux
Yauheni Hutarovich

Garmin - Sharp
Tom Danielson
Tyler Farrar
Ryder Hesjedal
Robbie Hunter
Dan Martin
David Millar
Christian Vande Velde
Johan Vansummeren
David Zabriskie

Katusha
Giampaolo Caruso
Oscar Freire
Vladimir Gusev
Joan Horrach
Aliaksandr Kuchynski
Denis Menchov
Luca Paolini
Yuriy Trofimov
Eduard Vorganov

Lampre
Grega Bole
Danilo Hondo
Yuriy Krivtsov
Matthew Lloyd
Marco Marzano
Alessandro Petacchi
Michele Scarponi
Simone Stortoni
Davide Viganò

Liquigas
Vincenzo Nibali
Peter Sagan
Ivan Basso
Sylvester Szmyd
Federico Canuti
Dominique Nerz
Kristjan Koren
Daniel Oss
Alessandro Vanotti

Lotto - Belisol
Lars Bak
Francis De Greef
André Greipel
Adam Hansen
Greg Henderson
Jürgen Roelandts
Marcel Sieberg
Jurgen Van den Broeck
Jelle Vanendert

Movistar
Alejandro Valverde
Juan José Cobo
José Joaquín Rojas
Rubén Plaza
Iván Gutiérrez
Imanol Erviti
Vladimir Karpets
Vasil Kiryienka
Rui Costa

Omega Pharma - Quick Step
Sylvain Chavanel
Kevin De Weert
Dries Devenyns
Bert Grabsch
Levi Leipheimer
Tony Martin
Jerome Pineau
Martin Velits
Peter Velits

Orica - GreenEdge
Baden Cooke
Daryl Impey
Brett Lancaster
Matt Goss
Michael Albasini
Pieter Weening
Sebastian Langeveld
Simon Gerrans
Stuart O’Grady

Rabobank
Robert Gesink
Laurens ten Dam
Steven Kruijswijk
Bauke Mollema
Mark Renshaw
Luis Leon Sanchez
Bram Tankink
Maarten Tjallingii
Maarten Wynants

RadioShack - Nissan
Fabian Cancellara
Tony Gallopin
Chris Horner
Andreas Klöden
Jens Voigt
Maxime Monfort
Yaroslav Popovych
Fränk Schleck
Haimar Zubeldia

Saur - Sojasun
Jérôme Coppel
Anthony Delaplace
Jimmy Engoulvent
Fabrice Jeandesboz
Julien Simon
Jean-Marc Marino
Brice Feillu
Cyril Lemoine
Guillaume Levarlet

Saxo Bank - Tinkoff Bank
Juan José Haedo
Jonathan Cantwell
Nick Nuyens
Chris Anker Sørensen
Nicki Sørensen
Michael Mørkøv
Anders Lund
Karsten Kroon
Sergio Paulinho

Sky
Bradley Wiggins
Edvald Boasson Hagen
Mark Cavendish
Bernhard Eisel
Chris Froome
Christian Knees
Richie Porte
Michael Rogers
Kanstantsin Siutsou.

Vacansoleil
Johnny Hoogerland
Lieuwe Westra
Wout Poels
Rob Ruijgh
Kris Boeckmans
Kenny Van Hummel
Gustav Erik Larsson
Marco Marcato
Rafael Valls

 

[Froome19]

GC Favorites and preview:
Previewing the favorites was going to be a bit boring when everybody knows what is going on with them anyway so I have decided to instead just bring some interviews from them and experts on how each one will go at the Tour, this list is far from comprehensive and some of the lesser favorites like Tom Danielson who I could not find interviews on I did not include. Additions are welcome if deemed crucial..

Evans: I love steep climbs, but I think that the 2012 Tour can be won just about anywhere. I regard the first 10 days as the expression of s modern Tour de France, the second part as that of a more traditional race. This will demand two very different states of mind-one very aggressive and the other dictated by the strength left in our legs when climbing and racing against the clock. Which will be dominant? That will be emerge when the action gets underway…
Wiggins:
"I’m not really feeling any pressure, I’m in this position now because I’ve done well and that’s a nice thing to be able to say. I remember going into the 2010 Tour answering all the usual questions and knowing that I wasn’t in any sort of form – that’s a different type of pressure. I now realise what it takes to compete and to train hard week in, week out. I also have the maturity to be able to lead races and not have it take so much out of you that you need two months off after a big success. The confidence from winning those races has also helped build the momentum. But the plan has always been to be good in July. It was never a plan to peak for those races, form-wise, but we won them and we continue to look forward and continue to build towards July. It was great to win those races but ultimately it’s about what we’re working towards in these next couple of weeks."

Froome: Some people seem a bit sceptical, and the quality of my ride in Spain took me by surprise as well, but a lot of the riders say they can remember that breakthrough ride when suddenly everything comes together. From that moment you operate on another level. I felt completely at home in the lead group throughout the Vuelta, and the three weeks was a massive boost to my confidence. After that I felt strong at the worlds and again at the Tour of Beijing. Now I want to arrive at the Tour de France in great condition to ride GC with Bradley and, of course, we will have Cav going for green. It’s a mistake to have all your eggs in one basket, especially at the Tour, where the first week has become completely manic and crashes and injuries can upset all your best laid plans. Much better to have two or three cards to play. It was great riding with Bradley at the Vuelta with both of us in podium positions. I learnt a lot from him as a GC rider: how to conserve energy and how to pace your effort. Together in the final week we learnt how you go about riding as a team when you have two riders who have a sniff of taking the GC. That was new territory for us but the experience should hold us in good stead. Who knows who will be going well at the time and who manages to avoid the crashes? We will do what needs doing as a team to give us the best chance of the jerseys.”

Fränk Schleck: Of course I would rather have Andy at my side, but this belongs to the rider's life. His forfeit is disappointing for him, for me, for the whole team. But at the same time we must not speak of a disappointment.
"What his absence will mean for me? I haven't had time to think about that. I've heard from Andy a few times, but we didn't talk about my Tour. Also I don't want to be captain. I can't continue to perform at top level,”
Andreas Klöden: “For me it’s always better to have big riders on the team. I rode in the past with a lot of big riders but if you are good, you’ll get your chance and you’ll have more opportunities tactically in the race. For me, it doesn’t change things – I want to be fit for the Tour and then we will see.”

Robert Gesink:“I don't want to get into a situation like this again (with his father’s death)– that you are only fighting against yourself. The next time in a similar situation I will say: Goodbye and you will see me again in the Vuelta. The Tour it’s more for the time triallers and I’ll have to focus on that. Last year I did that and I think I improved a lot. Also I’m pretty young so if people give me time who knows where I can be at my peak. I’ve finished two Tours but that’s still not that many. So I don’t have the experience of guys like Contador. Schleck is a little different but those two guys are the best in the world but I know that when I’m at my best I’m close to them.”
Peter Velits:“It’s good that we’re going there with three GC guys who can help each other, It always depends on how the situation during the race develops, maybe there’s a crash or one of us gets caught at the back and his chances are gone. Besides, I don’t think anyone of us has a problem helping the others. If there’s someone better than me, then for sure I have no problem in helping them. There’s still space for me to improve, but I don’t want to say, “I want to be top 10”. Of course in my head, I know it’s possible to finish really high byt everything must work out. I don’t really think about targets, but maybe one year I will really want to win the Tour.
Levi Leipheimer:
“This course is definitely better for guys like me, who can make up some time in the TTs. But it’s just as much about the mountains. It feels like everyone is underestimating that a little bit. It’s a three-week race and you have to be good every day and you have to be complete. In the end, the strongest man always wins. I hope that I’ll be at my strongest by then. I’m okay now, but I’m still lacking something. The last percent or two is what is going to take the longest to get back. But I’m optimistic.”
Tony Martin:
The prologue in Liège suits me well and I want to wear yellow; and with a less mountainous edition I can try to finish well in the general classification. I still have a couple of years to try to improve in the Grand Tours. If it comes, it comes by itself, but I won’t be disappointed if I get dropped in the mountains when I can fight for two stages, maybe try and wear yellow and then have a successful Olympics. It will be hard to fight for the podium and the Olympics in the same year. I will focus on the time trials, on the prologue and on wearing the yellow jersey,”
Jurgen Van den Broeck:
So far the team which has made the biggest impact is Sky with a show of force but only based on a week of events. The Tour de France is three weeks. This is not the same thing; we will have to see how they behave in this format over three weeks to really develop a strategy to beat them. For now the goal is to improve my condition, then we'll see how to beat the other leaders.

Jelle Vanendert:“There are lots of opportunities for me, right from the first week at Seraing or Boulogne, and then later on in Vosges and the Jura. They’re stages that are set up like Walloon classics, and I love those races. I really like this 2012 Tour, even if time trialling isn’t my forte and 100 kilometres is a lot, Very few people know the majority of the climbs we’ll do next year, even in the Alps and Pyrenees”

Denis Menchov:
It's a great responsibility that gives me high motivation," It will be my first big stage race with the team of my country, so I'll give my best in order to win. Moreover, the Tour de France is the only competition between the Grand Tours that I still haven't won. It's not a secret that this year it was my main goal. It would be the crowning achievement of my career, so that is why I look forward to the start. The team is great. We selected the riders very carefully. I talked a lot with the sport directors. I think that it's the best possible team having in mind our shape and the profile of the competition. We have good domestiques and Freire during this season proved to be in a great shape. I´m very satisfied with the final roster and I'm sure we will obtain some great results."

 

[Froome19]

Alejandro Valverde:“To win the Tour will be difficult, especially because the course is not the best for my talents, but you have to go with high aspirations We have seen some stage because most already knew. The mountains are all hard, but we have highlighted t the stage of (Belfort-Porrentruy)which is a mid-mountain but I think it can hurt. In addition, the day before ended up in a ski resort (des Belles Filles La Planche) and the next day is the first time trial in Besancon, of 41.5 kilometers. Those are the three key dates.The Tour is very long and anything can happen ,you take a fall or a bad day, for example. The idea is to go flat out and for all. Winning is very difficult and if it falls a stage will be well.. I am a realist and this year there are more miles and time trial riders in very good shape. But again, there are 21 days and not only the two time trials.

Pierre Rolland: My top form last 3 weeks or a month. I can now say I can finish in the top 10 0f the Tour de France. No I can’t do better than that. I hope I can finish in the top 5 of the Tour. Beyond that I don’t know, we will see. Of course there is more pressure, but that's the game. I'm not making an obsession of it. I'm able to put aside quite a lot of things. My career will not stop at the 2012 Tour if ever I have some problem. Within the team, Jean-René (Bernaudeau) is not putting us under pressure - we know what we can do."

Vincenzo Nibali: "My goal is the Tour de France! Even if there are not many high mountains, it suits me because I think that I'm more a climber than the reverse.”

Jean Christophe Peraud: "Péraud often races in front, within the first 20 to 40 riders. That's what you have to do, considering all these hilly and/or windy stages. The first real mountain stage will certainly be the one that starts in Albertville [stage 11], and with everything that we will have done before that, there will already be some impressive gaps in the classification. "He climbs well and does good time trials. So to have more time trials than last year is a good thing."

Janez Brajkovic: “Of course there are strong riders in the team, obviously Vinokourouv as leader but I think we will work together well”

Samuel Sanchez Gonzalez: The Tour (de France) is the most important race and the main target. “the Olympics are one day and if you fall, the race could be lost so I cannot put everything I have on a one day race. If I finish the Tour de France in good condition and recovering well then I know I can ride well.”The Tour ends on Sunday on the Champs Elysees in Paris and then six days later, the Olympics so it is not worth going home. I will travel to London for a few days before I go to the Olympic village. I think most riders will be in that situation, unless they go to the Olympics without having done the Tour de France as was the case of Bettini and Rebellin in 2008.

Ryder Hesjedal:
"All I can think about is that I won the Giro and that I'm in the condition of my life. I won this Giro and I'm not dead, and if anything I'm getting stronger and that's where you want to be. So I'm completely optimistic for the rest of the season. I have the luxury of having no pressure as well and nothing to lose. I won the Giro and there's lot of riders who have put everything on the Tour. I think I'm in a good position in that way, I don't feel like I have to prove anything. There's no fluke in a three week race. I was completely satisfied with my ride at the Giro and the biggest thing I can take away is the respect from my peers and the previous winners of the race. So for me I don't feel like I have to prove myself or back up the result. But that said, do I want a good Tour? Sure. Do I love the feeling of that now? Sure. I have a new benchmark for myself and we'll see how the future goes but nothing can ever take away from a victory at this level. I'm just thinking about having the best ride possible. I can't control what other riders do but having said that I've won a grand tour and someday I'd like to feel that again."

Michele Scarponi: Already at the start of the season I spoke with the management about riding the Giro and the Tour, and even right before the Giro I still had this in mind. For me, the hard thing after the Giro is to get straight back on the bike and find the appetite to start riding again. But this year I still have a lot of desire to keep working.. There are more or less 100 kilometres of time trialling so it might be a bit stupid to say I want to go to France to ride for the GC, even if you never know. I think the aim is to train really well and arrive at the Tour motivated. A good Tour would be to go on the attack in the mountains and maybe even win a stage.. It’s not straightforward because sometimes riders go away in breaks on easier days and pick up a lot of points. The mountain stages alone aren’t always enough to come away with the polka dot jersey. But it would be a dream to wear it and I’ll look to do well.

Juan Jose Cobo: “It takes the pressure off riding alongside a great rider like Alejandro. The road will decide which one of us can fight for the general classification. I’ll just try to reach 100% in the Tour and the Vuelta.. The road will tell me what I can aspire to, but I’ll fight to do as well as I can. It could even be the podium. I’ve found the confidence and motivation that was missing.”

Rein Taaramae: I want to finish the Tour de France with the white jersey on my shoulders. Also t I'm more motivated than ever, the whole team is behind me and I don't want to disappoint them. One of the advantages is that I can choose my race schedule and I decide how I prepare for my goals.
Jerome Coppel: “Last year, I made a top 15, the objective was completed, but I still don’t forget that there were several contenders for the top 10 or better who were victims of crashes and forced to abandon. The objective should be the same in 2012: a top 15, and if I have a little more luck then why not approach the top 10.”

 

[Froome19]

Sprinters preview:

The points jersey is much coveted by the fast men of the peloton but just because they value it dearly does not mean it is guaranteed to any of them. The so called hilly riders, the punchers will give their all in order to ride into Paris with green on their shoulders. But it is the hillier sprinters, the ones who can get over the tough category one climbs on stages 12,13, 14 and who have the power to make it into the front group when the echelons strike on stages 4,5,13 and who also have the ability to contest on the harder finishes like stages 1 and 3. These sprinters are aided by the altered rules which were just added by ASO last year where the intermediate sprints-one each stage- give a whole bag load of points and this favours the riders who can recover from earlier exertions and still give their all for a sprint finish. Effectively it will become a battle between the pure sprinters; the likes of Marcel Kittel, Andre Greipel and Mark Cavendish and the hillier sprinters; the likes of JJ Rojas, Oscar Freire and Mathew Goss.

Mark Cavendish is the defending green jersey holder and he has lightened himself up which has already been proven to assist his climbing so he will feel he will be able to gain points on a wider terrain even if his speed may have suffered. The problems for Cavendish are twofold: first of all after years on relying on HTC’s superbly efficient leadout trains with his trusted leadout man Mark Renshaw. Yet now he can not rely on Renshaw or his leadout and instead he will have to share domestiques with Bradley Wiggins in his own quest for yellow. Instead of having the chase of the break directed to his desire he will be limited to the accommodation he can arrange with Wiggins. Furthermore instead of Renshaw he will have Edvald Boassen Hagen who though extremely talented is lacking when it comes to the positioning which is so vital when performing a leadout. The second problem Cavendish is facing is the Olympics; he will not want to jeopardise his chances of winning the Olympics by straining his body too much in the Tour and therefore he may very well not finish the Tour. In my opinion Cavendish will leave the Tour to prepare for the Olympics unless he is wearing the green jersey.

Cavendish’s fellow pure sprinters include the German duo of Andre Greipel and Marcel Kittel. They have both been prolific this season, winning stages all across the globe and most recently they both beat Cavendish in the ZLM tour, yet Greipel has expressed explicitly that he is not targeting the green jersey as it will distract him from his primary focus of winning stages and Kittel does not seem to be capable of coping with the high mountains and the strain of a grand tour as he showed in last year’s Vuelta where he abandoned drained after stage12.

Other Sprinters include Kenny Van Hummel, Borut Bozic, Yauheni Hutarovich and Cavendish’s former leadout man Mark Renshaw yet they dont have the stamina, climbing or raw speed to contend with the top sprinters and other green jersey contenders. On the other hand there is Alessandro Pettachi who won the green jersey back in 2010 and is extremely experienced. Pettachi did show glimpses of his speed of old when he won two stage in Bayern Rudhart but the competition is much higher at the Tour and Pettachi’s star does seem to be waning. Another who started off so brightly is Tyler Farrar yet he has had an awful year to date yet he showed last year when he won stage 3 that he has the speed to beat the big sprinters, yet he has not demonstrated it in a while and his showing at the Giro before he departed was awful.

Then there are the sprinters who can survive the hills and other obstacles: these include the venerable Oscar Freire who after struggling so long with respiratory problems and being on the verge of retirement has comeback with aplomb and his ability is certainly unquestionable, his ability to stay their to the end on the hardest courses has brought him 3 world titles and against quality of the highest order he has consistently won. Yet the most promising and certainly overwhelming favourite for the jersey is the ridiculously acclaimed Peter Sagan. Sagan was imperious in Suisse and California and in the hilly classic of the Amstel gold race he came third and he also impressed in the cobbled classics which just goes to prove his remarkable stamina and ability to climb short climbs like the Cauberg and the one on stage 1 of this year’s Tour.

Then there is the immensely talented Boassen Hagen who won two stages at last years Tour and can climb well, yet he has been ill recently and he will most likely be consigned to leading out and working for Cavendish. Another one of Cavendish’s former accomplices is Mat Goss who burst onto the scene when he won Milan San Remo last year, he was super impressive at the Giro where he looked to be the only sprinter capable of truly matching Cavendish in a flat out sprint. He left the Giro early and hasn’t featured since but his best asset is certainly his team, of the other contenders only Kittel has a team totally melded to his cause and with sprinters and power riders like Daryl Impey, Brett Lancaster and Stuart O’Grady.

Finally there is JJ Rojas a rider who rarely if ever wins a sprint he seems to consistently attain podium places without ever reaching the top of the podium. His ability to attain such consistent results along with good climbing legs places him right up there with the other green jersey contenders, yet his team will be solely focused on Cobo and Valverde and therefore his bid may be hindered as he has been so far this season where he has been made to work for the GC men, who are Movistar’s priority.

Contenders:
Van Hummel:
Cavendish
Boassen Hagen:
Oscar Freire
Marcel Kittel
Mark Renshaw
André Greipel
Borut Bozic
Yauheni Hutarovich
Tyler Farrar
Alessandro Petacchi
Peter Sagan
Jose Joaquin Rojas Gil
Matthew Harley Goss
JJ Haedo
Gallopin

 

[Another_Dutch_Guy]

Well, you just copy-pasted the frontpage of the offical Tour de France site.

Very helpful indeed. Thank you.

edit: Didn't see the other posts. Interesting interviews.

 

[Froome19]

Other Possible Green jersey winners and stage opportunists (punchers etc):
Luis Leon Sanchez
Sylvain Chavanel
Philippe Gilbert
Alejandro Valverde Belmonte
Rui Alberto Faria Da Costa
Jérémy Roy
Michael Albasini
Simon Gerrans
Julien Simon
Simon Gerrans
Sandy Casar

KOM contenders & climbers and preview:

Last year saw a refreshing change to the climber’s competition which saw it change from being a competition contested by Anthony Charteau and Jerome Pineau it was contested last year by the likes of Samuel Sanchez and Andy Schleck. The way the changes were implemented was by a simple rule whereas there were double points awarded on HC climbs; this means that a rider has to be capable of mixing it with the GC contenders when it comes to climbing yet he still needs to target the jersey in its own regard. Yet there have been additional changes to the system. This year instead of the 20 points on offer on HC climbs there are now 25 points and points will be awarded to the first 10 over the climb rather than the first 6. Furthermore summit finishes are worth double which will benefit the GC contenders and the likes of Robert Gesink who will be able to last until the very end of the climbs rather than Charteau who will have to hoover up points on less rewarding climbs if he wants to harbour any hope of contesting the competition.

Very likely the competition will go down to the final mountain stage and the climb to Peyragudes. In terms of the riders who will be competing for the grand prize, it will most likely be a mix of riders; some of whom will be general classification contenders like Sanchez last year, yet due to crashes or poor time trialling they have been knocked out of contention and have resorted to contesting this particular jersey. This will be the likes of Frank Schleck who has admitted himself his form may not hold for the duration of the Tour and with his capabilities as a climber and considering his poor time trialling, going for the mountains jersey seems ideal.

Other riders include last year’s primary contender Jelle Vanendert who demonstrated his hugely impressive climbing prowess and as he is not going for GC due to his poor time trialling and his responsibility to assist his team leader Jurgen Van Den Broeck, the mountains competiton may very well be in his sights, likewise with purer climbers like Robert Gesink, Van Den Broeck himself and Sanchez who all may end up focusing on the climbers competition for a variety of different reasons and they all have the necessary climbing skills to easily win the competition.

There are also the two Italian riders; Michele Scarponi and Ivan Basso. They both had disappointing Giros and they have come to the Tour with aim of making amends, Basso is supposedly assisting Vincenzo Nibali but he has never been one to forgo his own whims and a jersey of any colour in the Tour will surely go some way to salvaging his dreadful season so far. Scarponi looked strong in the Giro but not strong enough to beat Ryder Hesjedal and Rodriguez and he will be going to the Tour will a purely free role where he will have the opportunity to rake up stage wins and if he has the chance to go for the climbers’ jersey it is unlikely he will turn it down.

Other contenders include Johnny Hoogerland who battled so valiantly last year when caught up in a crash. He has the attacking will but his climbing leaves much to be desired. Stronger climbers like Robert Kiserlovski, Daniel Martin and Nicolas Roche may also feature. Particularly Kiserolovski and Martin as they are both riders who have just recently being showing their undoubted climbing talent and they both have free roles as their team mates seek high GC placings. Juan Jose Cobo may also have a say in this competition the reigning Vuelta champion his climbing is undoubted yet his form has not been particularly good as of yet, he also may be required to work for his teammate Valverde if his own ambitions go awry. Alexandre Vinokourouv is a legend in the cycling world with his ferocity and attacking style and with his decision to come out of retirement to race the Tour for a final hurrah we may be treated to a rather special spectacle. It is doubtful he has the quality of old but with Vino you never know.

There is also the exciting dutch talents of Wout Poels who demonstrated his ability to climb with the best at the Vuelta last year and will be something of an unknown quantity at the Tour Finally there is the old French climber David Moncoutie, he was not at his best last year at the Tour and yet nevertheless he very nearly won a medium mountain stage. He was close to retiring but his dominating victory in the climber’s competition at the Vuelta delayed such talk for another season. He has the tactical acumen to attack when needed and pick up the necessary points but it is obvious that he does not have the climbing ability of old and the Tour with its revamped rules will make it difficult for him to attain any points on the vital summit finishes. In conclusion it seems as if the KOM jersey will come down to a battle between the GC riders who either are no longer targeting the general classification of who have been dominant on all the summit finishes and therefore have raked up lots of points and the less talented climbers who will attack early on in stages and try and get points on the earlier climbs.

This year’s course does in fact favour these riders as the maximum climbs which are the HC category ones all come before the finish and will therefore allow these type of riders to attack from far out and gain the points on these climbs and then fall back whilst the GC riders they are battling against will still have the final climbs and end of the stages to worry about.

Contenders:
Wout Poels:
Jonny Hoogerland:
Fränk Schleck
Jurgen Van den Broeck
Jelle Vanendert
Samuel Sanchez
Robert Gesink
Nicolas Roche
Robert Kiserlovski
Alexandre Vinokourov
Daniel Martin
David Moncoutie
Michele Scarponi
Ivan Basso
Juan Jose Cobo Acebo
Pierre Rolland
Chris Anker Sorenson

White Jersey contenders and preview:

The white jersey competition was won last year by the French climber Pierre Rolland who is illegible this year. Yet as in past years Rolland followed the trend by being a winner of the jersey and also making his breakthrough at the highest level. Rolland will hope to follow in the steps of the likes of Marco Pantani, Jan Ullrich, Ivan Basso, Denis Menchov and Alberto Contador who all won the Tour and then went onto to enjoy two or more grant tour successes. Rolland may not be capable of following in their footsteps just yet due to the amount of time trialling in this year’s Tour. This competition can only be contested by riders that were born in 1987 or above, There are only in truth 5 primary contenders for this jersey yet they all are immensely talented with not much to choose between them. Wout Poels as mentioned above enjoyed a successful Vuelta where he was particularly impressive on the queen stage of the infamous Angliru. He further impressed recently in the Tour of Luxembourg and will certainly be a force on the climbs, his time trialling is suspect yet generally the jersey is won by the best climber of the young riders especially as he will have a free role unlike many of his rivals. Steven Kruijiswik is another truly talented young climber who was very impressive in last year’s Giro where his climbing in the final week was equal to all of the genuine GC contenders. His time trial isn’t bad and he looked strong in the recent Tour de Suisse, but he may be expected to work for his two GC leaders Bauke Mollema and Robert Gesink. Tejay Van Garderen is certainly a talented rider but I am doubtful as to his ability to climb the hardest climbs, he has gone well in week long races but I am also not sure of his ability to perform at his highest level come the final week. His time trialling is certainly the best of all the contenders for the particular competition and that will give him the edge, once again he may be expected to work for his team leader Cadel Evans which may hinder his chances. Rein Taaramae has endured an awful season so far. He has had his objectives at Paris Nice and the Dauphine wiped out effectively due to injury but he does seem to be coming into form and he certainly has the best pedigree at the Tour with a tight battle between him and Rolland last year, narrowly going Rolland’s way. He can time trial as he showed by recently winning the Estonian national championships and he won a mountain stage at last year’s Vuelta but one has to wonder whether his dreadful preparation may have cost him. Thibau Pinot is very talented yet in my opinion he has not demonstrated enough to really win the competition. His performance in the Vuelta last year was promising though and last year he impressed hugely at the Dauphine and Settimana Lombarda.

Cotenders:

Wout Poels
Steven Kruijswijk
Tejay van Garderen
Thibaut Pinot
Rein Taaramäe


TT/Prologue contenders:
Gustav Larsson:
Westra;
Fabian Cancellara
Wiggins:
Froome:
Levi Leipheimer
Tony Martin
Bert Grabsch
Cadel Evans
Andreas Kloden
Sylvain Chavanel
Denis Menchov
Michael Rogers
Frederik Kessiakoff
David Zabriskie
David Millar
Patrick Gretsch
Janez Brajkovic

 

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Prologue- Liège Liège :6.4 km

LIÈGE 6.5 0.0 12:00 14:00 17:17
Boulevard d'Avroy 6.0 0.4 12:01 14:00 17:18
Boulevard de la Sauvenière 5.5 0.9 12:01 14:01 17:18
Rue de l'Université 4.6 1.3 12:03 14:02 17:19
Place du Vingt Août 4.3 2.1 12:03 14:03 17:20
Quai Paul Van Hoegaerden 4.0 2.4 12:04 14:03 17:20
Quai Roosevelt 3.5 2.9 12:04 14:04 17:21
Quai sur Meuse 3.3 3.1 12:05 14:04 17:21
Quai de la Ribuée 3.0 3.4 12:05 14:04 17:21

Quai de la Goffe 2.9 3.5 12:05 14:04 17:21
Quai de la Batte 2.6 3.8 12:06 14:05 17:22
Quai de la Goffe 2.2 4.2 12:06 14:05 17:22
Rue de la Cité 2.1 4.3 12:06 14:05 17:22
Rue Léopold 2.1 4.3 12:07 14:05 17:22
Place Saint-Lambert 1.8 4.6 12:07 14:06 17:23
Rue Joffre 1.5 4.9 12:07 14:06 17:23
Boulevard de la Sauvenière 0.9 5.5 12:08 14:07 17:24
Boulevard d'Avroy 0.5 5.9 12:09 14:07 17:24

Liège 0.0 6.4 12:10 14:08 17:25


Of course this is a prologue and it is all about minute differences or as Sky like to dub it marginal gains.

The stage will most likely be fought out between the prologue and TT specialists etc.
Of course it is hard to look past the rider who has been dominant in the Tour’s most recent prologues; Fabian Cancellara, whether he has fully recovered from his break due to his collarbone break he sustained at the Tour of Flanders is something which we do not know for sure as of yet but in such a short sustained effort he will surely be up there even if he was obviously not on his top form when he was narrowly beaten by Peter Sagan at the Tour de Suisse prologue where he has dominated on the same course in previous years.

In terms of the route itself it is flat with a couple of bumps but nothing which will affect who will contest the stage. And nothing to assist those who will be struggling, last year a TTT was used to sort out the chaff and that affected and seriously damaged some contenders ability to go for GC. It also is said to be pretty technical and this harm quite a few riders, specifically climbers who may not particularly strong when it comes to bike handling something which the likes of Cancellara, Martin and Wiggins are particularly adept at. This year it is a bit fairer but there will certainly be some GC contenders who will struggle on this course. Losing more than 20 or so seconds to the likes of Wiggins will be the aim for the likes of Van Den Broeck and whilst a poor performance may relieve some pressure it will certainly dent the confidence of the top contenders. I expect Gustav Larsson to impress as he beat the top favourites at the Tour of Romandie.Sylvain Chavanel’s time trialling has been impressive this year which lead him to a win the De Panne, yet the experienced duo of Millar and Zabriskie will certainly also pose a threat.

“At the end of the 6-km long route, marked out in the city-centre of Liège, the Yellow Jersey will reward the master of an athletic feat. Pure power will be the best strategy on the course’s long straight stretches. And the Belgian public, who is always present for the Tour, will definitely encourage the riders to achieve excellence.” Christian Prudhomme

“Racing wise it is a little bit better to have a prologue, unlike last year, because it is a little less stressful. There are a lot of tight corners and riders who don’t have good handling skills can lose a of time here” Janez Brajkovic

Stage Contenders: Westra, Fabian Cancellara, Wiggins, Tony Martin, Sylvain Chavanel, Peter Sagan, David Zabriskie, David Millar, Patrick Gretsch, Edvald Boassen Hagen, Gustav Larsson.

 

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STAGE 1 - Liège Seraing198 km

Climbs
• Km 42.0 - Côte de Cokaifagne - 2.9 km climb to 5.1 % - Category 4
• Km 49.0 - Côte de Francorchamps - 1.1 km climb to 6.4 % - Category 4
• Km 94.0 - Côte de Lierneux - 2.1 km climb to 5.1 % - Category 4
• Km 139.0 - Côte de Barvaux - 1.6 km climb to 4.2 % - Category 4
• Km 198.0 - Côte de Seraing - 2.4 km climb to 4.7 % - Category 4

Sprint at Km 116.5

This stage will certainly suit some contenders more than others.
Though it is supposedly based around the infamous La Doyenne, in fact the route isn’t half as tough as the mythical classic and this means that it wont be enough to drop some of the stronger sprinters. Yet the finish is pretty tough at 5% in the last 2km. And it will undoubtedly suit the puncheurs.

The riders who will have the strength to challenge though will be interesting, This stage finish was delibatedly made harder by ASO to attract Phillipe Gilbert yet he has not being able to rediscover the form which saw him dominate on such a finish last year. He has slowly been getting stronger but he competition is also, spefically Peter Sagan who has been in terrific form this year and showed at Amstel Gold Race that these sorts of finishes suit him. The other puncheurs like Michel Albasini, Luis Leon Sanchez and Alejandro Valverde will have a go as well but whether they have the kick to beat Sagan is doubtful.

This stage also will see the start of the KOM battle and whilst the rider wearing it at the end of the day will probably not be the one wearing it in Paris, a couple of category 4 climbs will most likely ensure FDJ or Saur Sojaun get to wear something at least once this Tour.

In terms of the GC battle we are looking at mere seconds being lost but psychological warfare will be at an optimum during the early exchanges of the Tour. Riders who excel in the Ardennes classics like Cadel Evans will certainly try to put the less explosive GC riders like Wiggins and Menchov under some pressure and this could result in a thrilling finale. Also crashes are a possibility here and it would be a sincere shame to have a repeat of last years Tour when so many favorites were eliminated in these early exchanges. I would tout Oscar Freire as a very possibly winner on this stage but Simon Gerrans and Julein Simon have been two of the standout punchers so far this year and I would be surprised if they aren’t in the thick of the actions again in this stafe.
“Like in Brittany in 2008 and in Vendée in 2011, the finish of the first online stage of the Tour will be judged at the top of a hill after an ascent of 2.5 km. “Puncheurs” will be expected to perform better here than pure sprinters. At a time when the riders will still have lots of energy, their performances promise to be spec-tacular.” Christian Prudhomme
“It’s lumpy and in Belgium. Omega Pharma Quick Step could be in yellow with Tony Martin and will want to protect that and bring it into a sprint. That would play into our hands for Cav” Sean yates

Stage Contenders: Boassen Hagen, Oscar Freire, Borut Bozic, Peter Sagan, Tony Gallopin , Luis Leon Sanchez, Philippe Gilbert , Alejandro Valverde Belmonte Michael Albasini, Julien Simon, Simon Gerrans


STAGE 2 - Visé Tournai207.5 km

Climbs
Km 82.5 - Côte de la Citadelle de Namur - 2.1 km climb to 4.5 % - Category 4

Sprint at Km 153.0 – SOIGNIES

The previous stage will have been one for the contenders for the green jersey who are more suited to the sharp uphill finishes, yet this stage will almost certainly be contested by the fast men and there are certainly a huge quota of them all determined to battle it out for the honours of the first sprint stage and the initiative going into the next week of sprint stages.

In truth a lot of the sprinters will not be focusing on the green jersey due to its dependency on the intermediate sprints which tire fresh before the finale. Last year’s green jersey winner namely Mark Cavendish will certainly be going for this stage but he has lost weight in order to get over box hill with the front runners in Surrey. From the results in the ZLM tour this may be the case but it seems to have impacted his sprinting and pan flat stages like this may not be the piece of cake they have been for him in the past. Competing against him will be arguable the two next fastest sprinters: Andre Greipel and Marcel Kittel last year Greipel beat Cavendish and Kittel has comstantly won stages this year since Qatar so both of them have a realisitic chance to take this stage.

A lot will depend on the leadouts. The finish is wide and straight and this will ensure we do not see a recurrence of the shambolic sprints at the Giro but it will also mean that whichever sprinter wants to win the stage will be required to have a well drilled leadout train at his disposal. The Lotto and Argos Shimano teams leadout have been impressive but the Orica Greenege’s leadouts were simply amazing at the Giro and if Matt Goss can reproduce such sprinting as he demonstrated at the Giro then seeing him close to the thick of things will not be surprising. Question marks still remain over Sky’s leadouts as they will have to be combined with protecting Bradley Wiggins but I for one would not be surprised if we see Wiggins’ and his domestiques merging with Cavendish’s sprint train. There will be an array of French sprinters who will also be challenging such as Sebastien Chavanel but there will also be vagabond sprinters so to speak who will not have much of a leadout such as Peter Sagan and Pettachi all of whom have demonstrated they have the ability to mix it with the strongest sprinters.

This stage will be important for the sprinters as it will give them the psychological boost over their rivals which they all so desperately crave. It will also them who is in the best form and who will be required to be marked in the next sprint finale.

Also this stage will be a nice commemoration of Wouter Weylandt who as Prudhomme articulates won his last stage in one of the towns which go by. It will also be the last chance saloon for the Lotto and Omega Pharma teams do something before the race leaves Belgium and enters France for the first time.

As the route goes through Belgium, it will offer possibilities to fighters but it is highly likely that there will be a massive sprint finish at the end of the stage. Maybe those disappointed the day before will take their revenge. When the riders go through Tournai, it will provide us with an opportunity to remember Wouter Weylandt, who had the last victory of his career during the Circuit Franco- Belge in 2010.” Christian Prudhomme

“This is the first real opportunity for the sprinters. The finishing straight (on Boulevard Bara) is straight and wide which should a,make it easier to organise the leadout trains and it will be interesting to see which teams have clicked” Andre Greipel

Stage contenders: Van Hummel, Cavendish, Marcel Kittel, Mark Renshaw, André Greipel, Yauheni Hutarovich, JJ Rojas , Tyler Farrar, Alessandro Petacchi, Peter Sagan, Matthew Harley Goss, JJ Haedo

 

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STAGE 3 - Orchies Boulogne-sur-Mer197 km

Climbs
• Km 132.0 - Côte de L'Éperche - 0.7 km climb to 6.9 % - Category 4
• Km 163.5 - Côte de Mont Violette - 1.0 km climb to 9.2 % - Category 3
• Km 181.0 - Côte de Herquelingue - 1.7 km climb to 5.8 % - Category 4
• Km 185.0 - Côte de Quéhen - 1.4 km climb to 5.9 % - Category 4
• Km 190.5 - Côte du Mont Lambert - 1.3 km climb to 8.4 % - Category 3
• Km 197.0 - Boulogne-sur-Mer - 0.7 km climb to 7.4 % - Category 4


Sprint is at Km 119.0 – SENLECQUES

This stage is complicated and will undoubtedly result in some teams and riders including GC riders getting caught out.

It starts out in Orchies which is infamous due to Paris Roubaix yet there are no cobbles this time round but rather short sharp hills. Yet it is the final which is particularly intriguing, the final 16 km feature four climbs all of which are short and will suit attacking, jumpy riders who do well in the Ardennes classics.

The finish is the same one which saw Sylvain Chavanel win the French national championships and I expect a similar rider to do well here. Indeed the most definitive climb will most likely be the climb of the Cote du Mont Lambert which comes 7km before the finish and mere minutes after the peloton have finished the Cote De Quehen. It is 1.3km at 8.4% and these steep slopes will surely provide attackers will ideal opportunities to attack and make their move before the last climb, whether they get away will most likely be based on which teams have interest in winning the stage but once again the main perpetrators will likely be riders like Albasini, Simon and of course Gilbert.

It will be in the interest of Gilbert’s BMC team to work as the finish may also provide Cadel Evans will a chance to test Bradley Wiggins and team Sky by seeing how they handle the shorter steeper climbs which Wiggis has struggled in on past occasions. All in all it will certainly make for an interesting stage with the GC contenders and their teams having to be especially alert
“in case they miss splits in the peloton and the like. This is especially as the peloton will be very nervous on the narrow roads on this stage and with it being the first real test they will all try to jockey for position and this may very well result in major crashes which put paid to so many GC aspirations last year.

Yet it is final climb here which in all probability will define the winner of this stage and at 700m at 7.4% it will certainly put the any remaining sprinters out of contention. It will favour the Punchers but Cadel Evans narrowly beat Alberto Contador on a similar stage last year so he will also be looking to make his move here and maybe even gain valuable seconds in the race for yellow. It may also see Liege winner Maxim Inglinsky feature whilst look out for Luis Leon Sanchez who has been impressive in a lot of the uphill finishes he has competed in this year particularly at the Dauphine and Romandie.

“The start of this stage will remind the riders of Paris-Roubaix, since the cobblestone experts regularly pass through Orchies, on the Chemin des Prières and the Chemin des Abattoirs which have such evocative names. Then in the Monts du Boulonnais -five hills with a gradient of around 10 %-, the “puncheurs” will have the opportunity, as they did in Seraing, to provide the spectators and viewers with an outstanding performance. The finish will be judged at the end of a 700m long ascent.” Christian Prudhomme

“ The last 60 kilometres contain a series of bumps where attacks may be launched. The final is very hard, with Mt. Lmabert and the hill in Boulogne. Anything is possible but I think we will arrive in small groups and the punchers will prevail.” Jeremy Roy

Stage Contenders:
Oscar Freire, Peter Sagan, Tony Gallopin ,Luis Leon Sanchez
Sylvain Chavanel, Philippe Gilbert, Alejandro Valverde Belmonte, Jérémy Roy,Simon Gerrans, Julien Simon, Simon Gerrans, Maxim Inglinsky, Sandy Casar, Pierrek Ferdrigo, Thomas Voeckler


STAGE 4 - Abbeville Rouen214.5 km

Climbs:• Km 38.0 - Côte du Mont Huon - 2.1 km climb to 4.1 % - Category 4
• Km 69.0 - Côte de Dieppe - 1.8 km climb to 3.9 % - Category 4
• Km 74.0 - Côte de Pourville-sur-Mer - 1.9 km climb to 4.4 % - Category 4
• Km 143.0 - Côte de Toussaint - 1.9 km climb to 4.5 % - Category 4

Sprint at Km 140.0 – FÉCAMP

We have had two stages for the puchers as of yet whilst only one for the sprinters but that will assuredly change with this stage which seems to be destined for the sprinters to gain their rematch from where they left of on Sunday.

The climbs are generally in the first half of the stage and will certainly not pose any problems whatsoever yet the main obstacle in this stage will without doubt be the wind. As this stage’s route primarily runs alongside the sea it will very possibly be heavily affected by the wind and the peloton could split into several groups with a scenario, which is certainly every GC rider’s nightmare, occurring where they don’t pay attention and end up in a split which pays heed to their GC aspirations. Cadel Evans’ BMC were terrific at keeping him out of trouble last year and Wiggins and Sky have likewise been impressive in keeping to the front as they did to perfection in Paris Nice. But riders like Samuel Sanchez with his weaker Euskaltel team will have to ensure they don’t get caught up as occurred last year where a crash in front of him ended his hopes of winning the yellow jersey.

Due to the particular windy nature of this stage the barrodeurs and breakaway specialists will try to go for it and I expect a couple of the smaller team namely the four French teams, Vancosoleil and maybe Lotto, Saxo Bank and Euskaltel to have a go on this stage as stage wins may be hard to come by for these particular teams. Yet strong winds may be particularly damaging for any breakaways chances of getting away and winning the stage.

Also the Tour will be paying homage to its first 5 time winner Jacques Anquetil and furthermore the scenery is said to stunning around this particular area so it may compensate for the lack of action if the winds decide not to turn up.

In terms of the sprinters, they would all be looking to take the plaudits on this stage but it will be difficult because though pan flat the finish has a couple of tricky turns with 1km to go as they pass over the Guillaume de conquerant bridge and this could upset leadouts and cause widescale crashes like seen at the Giro. Once again a strong team will be needed to place the sprinters up there for the sprint and to negate them through the hazards of the day yet the fastest riders namely the likes of Goss, Kittel, Greipel, Cavendish and even Renshaw will most likely be the ones contesting the sprint. Yet watch out for the barodeurs amongst them Voeckler and even the immensly strong Cancellara who is set to have a much freer role this year than last year.

“Riders who regularly take part in the Tour of Picardy are familiar with the pitfalls that the region can hold in store for them. The experts of bordure formations may well take advantage of the wind that blows by the seaside during the whole first part of the stage, which will boasts very beautiful scenery. The favourite riders in the race will have to be extremely careful, as they know how hard it is to make up for lost time caused by their carelessness at the beginning of the Tour.” Christian Prudhomme

“Wind off the sea could cause problems early on and two tight turns to get over Guillame le COnquerant Bridge will 1km to go could upset the leadouts. The sprinters will want to stack up the points before the mountains begin.” Andre Greipel.

Stage Contenders::Van Hummel:
Cavendish, Marcel Kittel, Mark Renshaw, André Greipel, Yauheni Hutarovich, Tyler Farrar, Alessandro Petacchi, Peter Sagan, Jose Joaquin Rojas Gil, Matthew Harley Goss, JJ Haedo, Jeremy Roy, Thomas Voeckler, Fabian Cancellara

 

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STAGE 5 - Rouen Saint-Quentin196.5 km

Climbs
Rouen Saint-Quentin - 196.5 km

Sprint at Km 109.0 – BRETEUIL

This stage will surely be a relative procession for the peloton who will have plenty of wide straight roads for chasing down any breakaways.

The sprinters will be looking for as many opportunities as possible to gain points for the green jersey and to receive a much coveted stage win and this stage will be as good as any with not many obstacles in the way. The wind may play up but it is unlikely which just leaves it to the sprinters to fight it out for the win.

The GC riders will also have to be ever vigilant on this stage as with all sprint stages particularly in the first week as one false step in a moment of lull could cost them the Tour. Yet this stage is not only a typical Tour stage but there is in fact a special occasion on this stage which will help us to endure the boring 190 km before the sprint starts to take place. This is because the Tour will be paying tribute to Jean Robic who won the 1947 Tour. The reason for this particular stage for the commemoration is because the start bears a monument which pays tribute to his historical break in the first Tour post the World war. The break saw him go for 130km which included the dropping of Pierre Brambilla and this lead him to win that Tour.

Not a particularly eventful stage in the most likely event with the most likely outcome being a sprint which should be contested by the usual suspects. A couple of the riders though particularly Marcel Kittel will be pressing for a win in this stage as they may not survive or choose to partake in the mountain climbing. Look out for Kenny Van Hummel and Alessandro Pettachi who will not be considered one of the favourites for this sprint but they have shown on countless times, particularly Pettachi that they have the speed to beat the very best sprinters.

“The favourite sprinters in the peloton will definitely call on their team mates on the Saint-Quentin road. Those who are not sure of staying the course all the way to Paris will already have an opportunity to try their luck in the district of the Champs-Élysées provided that the train of sprinters arrives on time.” Christian Prudhomme

“Because the route followd one general direction, everything will depend on the weather-if the wind is from a bad angle there will be people everywhere! The sprint teams will try to control the race so it will be difficult to get away.” Jeremy Roy

Stage contenders: Van Hummel, Cavendish, Marcel Kittel, Mark Renshaw, André Greipel, Yauheni Hutarovich, Tyler Farrar, Alessandro Petacchi, Peter Sagan, Jose Joaquin Rojas Gil, Matthew Harley Goss, JJ Haedo


STAGE 6 - Épernay Metz207.5 km

Climbs:
Km 145.0 - Côte de Buxières - 2.7 km climb to 3.8 % - Category 4

Sprint at Km 135.5 - SAINT-MIHIEL

Just when we thought it could not get any more boring the Tour has proved us wrong. This will of course be a case of sprinters versus baroduers and the only thing which could get in the way would be a spate of crashes as the Tour prepares to depart to the mountains.

The sprinters and their nemesis the breakaway men will both try to give it their all as they will know that the dawn will bring a mountain stage which they will not feature in. This will motivate both parties and it will be an interesting contest but it is hard to see breaks succeeding on sprint stages like this, this early on in the Tour.
Of course this poses the question of how the peloton of the Tour will adapt to not having HTC within their ranks. In the past years these stages have been highlighted by the HTC riders taking charge and reigning in the break in order that they could deliver their top sprinters to the finish in perfect position, particularly Mark Cavendish. This year there is no HTC and that will force other teams to take up the baton. The problem is the team who would be the most likely to do the work is Sky due to Mark Cavendish, the fastest sprinter, being in their ranks. Yet they have Wiggins to work for and Cavendish’s seeming drop of pace may convince other teams to do the work, none of these are as strong as HTC when it comes to their ability to work on the front all day and pull back breaks, it will all be down to who is willing to do the bulk of the work. The other teams should logically present Sky with the dilemma about having to do the work yet they haven’t so far this season and they seem to have to work in order to demonstrate their faith in their sprinter.

This is a stage where if the weather is suited to the break they can succeed but I get the feeling Metz will see a sprint finish.

“Statistically, we have remarked that the stages favourable to sprinters are sometimes hindered by inspired attackers, who can take advantage of the peloton’s wait-and-see approach, of weather conditions which deteriorate or of a disruption in the chase of a breakaway. In Metz, like elsewhere, the daring riders are capable of creating the surprise. The finish will be judged a stone’s throw from the Centre Pompidou which has recently welcomed its millionth visitor.” Christian Prudhomme

“It is too early to be going for intermediate sprints so we wont be trying to keep it together. It’s the last flat stage and then we hit the mountains- the combination of us, Omega Pharma Quick step and Lotto will surely lead to a sprint.” Sean Yates.

Stage Contenders: Rafael Valls, Baden Cooke, Sylvain Chavanel, Lars Bak, Van Hummel:
Cavendish, Boassen Hagen, Oscar Freire, Marcel Kittel, Mark Renshaw, André Greipel, Borut Bozic,
Yauheni Hutarovich, Tyler Farrar, Alessandro Petacchi, Peter Sagan, Jose Joaquin Rojas Gil, Matthew Harley Goss, JJ Haedo, Tony Gallopin , Jérémy Roy

 

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The First Mountain Stage -STAGE 7 - Tomblaine La Planche des Belles Filles199 km

ASO have quite blatantly admitted their mistake of not making a decisive stage for lats Year’s Tour until Stage 12 and they have made amends this year with this stage, which wont be a decider but rather a mere hors d'oeuvre yet will we fireworks on this stage no doubt and the GC favorites have everything to gain here yet much more to lose.

Climbs:

• Km 112.0 - Col de Grosse Pierre - 3.1 km climb to 6.4 % - Category 3
• Km 150.5 - Col du Mont de Fourche (620 m) - 3.1 km climb to 6.4 % - Category 3
• Km 199.0 - La Planche des Belles Filles - 5.9 km climb to 8.5 % - Category 1

Sprint at Km 103.5 – GÉRARDMER

This stage will see the first exchanges dealt as the general classification riders flex their muscles in order to gain that invaluable psychological boost. The route itself is very new with a lot of it never having featured before in the Tour. Considering the route itself the whole stage will be tough and gruelling for all the riders and there will certainly be a reduced peloton come the final climb. That is due to the previous climbs of the Col de la Gross Pierre and the col du Mont Forche both category 3 climbs they come in the second half of the stage and both are 3.1km long at 6.4%. They will be ridden tough as teams look to gain the ascendancy before the final climb which will be ridden onto at an express speed due to its brevity and steep gradient. With the sprint before the proper climbing gets underway it may be an opportunity for the green jersey riders to take a bow and pick up the points which have been left by the breakaway. The break itself will not have much chance on this particular stage as the teams will want to really push the pace as it is the first decisive stage, even if last years dynamics on Luiz Ardiden were slightly different as there were many opportunities to take time on the mountains, this time with the climbing being so drastically overshadowed by the amount of time trialling which guarantees time gaps.

The climb itself is very short at only 5.9km which is explains why this stage is merely a medium mountains stage and why the climb is merely rated a category 1 but it is obvious that whilst not being a climb which will define riders’ Tours or even create significant time gaps it will certainly help to sort out the race as the Tour now gets down to serious business. The climb will certainly suit the pure climbers whilst the likes of Wiggins, Menchov and Nibali may struggle on the insanely steep gradients. This will mean we may see the likes of Gesink, Rolland, Frank Schleck and Van Den Broeck break free yet Sky will very possibly be capable of bringing everything back together or at least within a few seconds and therefore damage limitation. It will be very likely we will in fact witness a repeat of what we saw in Paris Nice when Porte set cracking pace up the Mendee. With ramps of up to 13% it will be a leg breaking climb and the fireworks as the riders contest the finish will be breathtaking. I would go for Valverde or Cobo if they are in peak form but otherwise I expect Frank Schleck to dominate this climb as he did on other, similar climbs in Suisse. It is vital though that the time trial specialists like Leipheimer, Wiggins and Menchov don’t take their foot of their gas for one moment as attacks will be fast and deadly on this climb, it will also test Wiggins’ favourites tag as he will have to prove he can handle the steeper gradients in stark contrast to how he handled the Angliru in last year’s Vuelta.

“Cyclosportive riders are already familiar with La Planche des Belles Filles, where the Trois Ballons race finishes, but the professionals will discover the imposing final climb which leads to the resort. The figures speak for themselves: an ascent which is almost 6 kilometres long, an average gradient of 8.5% and some sections that have a gradient of 13%. The Tour’s favourites will definitely be successful there!” Christian Prudhomme

"The profile of the final climb is really hard with ramps of 11 and 13 per cent and there are certainly going to be some time differences at the top. It is almost six kilometres and averages around 7 per cent so it is a climb that suits me." Janez Brajkovic

Stage Contenders: Fränk Schleck, Jurgen Van den Broeck, Jelle Vanendert, Samuel Sanchez, Robert Gesink, Daniel Martin, Michele Scarponi, Pierre Rolland, Cadel Evans, Alejandro Valverde, Juan Jose Cobo
Chris Froome, Lieuwe Westra



STAGE 8 - Belfort Porrentruy157.5 km

Climbs
• Km 20.0 - Côte de Bondeval - 4.4 km climb to 3.9 % - Category 4
• Km 32.0 - Côte du Passage de la Douleur - 3.8 km climb to 6.4 % - Category 3
• Km 50.0 - Côte de Maison-Rouge - 7.9 km climb to 5 % - Category 2
• Km 73.0 - Côte de Saignelégier - 7.8 km climb to 6.1 % - Category 2
• Km 97.0 - Côte de Saulcy - 4.6 km climb to 8.6 % - Category 2
• Km 130.5 - Côte de la Caquerelle (834 m) - 4.3 km climb to 7.6 % - Category 2
• Km 141.5 - Col de la Croix (789 m) - 3.7 km climb to 9.2 % - Category 1

Sprint at Km 107.0 - LES GENEVEZ

If there was ever stage which was destined to be claimed by a breakaway it is this one. It comes immediately after a mountain stage which will mean the peloton will have tired legs and the previous stage would have spread out the GC and so barodeurs will be able to get into breaks and not have any fear of being chased down.

The stage is also a mixed bag and the dynamics of the race will be very interesting. Assuredly it all depends on who took the yellow jersey the day before as to whether their team will be willing to chase down the breakaway but it is doubtful that there will be many teams who will have an eye on the stage win today. It is a possibility for the some of the stronger sprinters yet the likes of Rojas and Sagan are part of teams who’s focus is primarily on the GC rather than stage wins and the green jersey.

Whether this stage will affect the GC riders is out to the jury because it is certainly capable of doing. It has a mind numbing 7 climbs with 5 of them category 2 or above. After such a tiring day the 7th climb is the Col de la Croix which is in fact the hardest of all the climbs and it will certainly present GC riders or stage opportunists with the opportunity to attack with a tremendous 9.7% gradient for 3.7km. The descent though is the tricky bit and whilst there has been much talk about favourites attacking on this descent particularly ace descenders Nibali and Sanchez who will want to put time into a Bradley Wiggins who is a “supposedly” weak descender. This is certainly a day when the overall favorites can be caught out as occurred on a similar stage and final climb on stage 16 of the Tour last year and extra vigilance will be extremely important.

This stage will be one where we see the typical French rider type of breakaway and many people have already placed large amounts of money on seeing Sylvain Chavanel in this stage’s breakaway and that doesn’t sound to unreasonable when it is considered that he won a very similar stage in 2010 to La Rousses. It will be a complete rider who wins this stage as he will have to have good climbing skills while also descending well and having the endurance to last a day of climb after climb is also vital and he will also have to have the technical skills as the roads are quite tricky and technical. All in all the stage will provide us with an entertaining spectacle whilst we wait for the resumption of the real racing the next stage, yet whoever thinks this stage will be easy going for the GC riders is in for a nasty surprise….

“This medium mountain stage promises to be even more demanding as it will be short and difficult. The mere mention of these ascents, whose peaks crown the route in the Jura, illustrates how difficult it is: the Côte du Passage de la Douleur, the Col de La Croix, etc. This final ascent, about 20 kilometres from the finish will be a very decisive factor in the stage.” Christian Prudhomme

“We did some of the stage in Romandie and it is a hard one. The roads are not easy and they’re also quite technical. It will be the type of stage that will Sylvain Chavanel if a breakaway goes with some good climbers.” Allan Peiper.

 

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STAGE 9 - Arc-et-Senans Besançon41.5 km

This stage will be a real battle. Rather than being flat out it has a few bumps along the way nothing that will disrupt the specialists like Martin, Cancellara and Millar but enough for the climbers to attempt to limit their time losses.

The time trial is situated in a stage of the race which will make it very interesting for viewers and the riders themselves. The GC riders would have fought their first battles on stage 7 a stage which will suit the climbers as it finishes with a steep short climb. Yet the time triallists will be determined to demonstrate they have what it takes with an encouraging performance on this course. But the key will be to gain enough time so that they can have enough leeway to lose time in the high mountains and still be in contention. With the rest day coming the day after this stage this stage will certainly be ridden flat out and that will make for an interesting day which will show who is the strongest of the roleurs who are challenging, and it will also give a fairly accurate portrayal of what the climbers will lose on the decisive last time trial.

The time trial route itself is tricky. It was originally 38km but has now had 3.5km added to it so it is 41.5km. The first half of the stage will be difficult as it is rolling constantly up and down and it will therefore tire the legs of the riders come the second half of the stage which is much more straightforward. The rolling km though will not harm those powerful time trial specialists as they will be able to power up the climbs and they will be the riders who feature to the top of the stage results. The climbers meanwhile will have a hard time of it and it will all be about just damage limitation. Riders who can do well here will be the powerful riders who can do well above, yet Frederik Kessiakoff put in an unbelievable time trial to triumph over a below par Cancellara in Suisse and the rolling route will certainly help the former mountain biker. Another rider who I would tip to do well is recently crowned Dutch time trial champion Liewe Westra, he ran Bradley Wiggins very close in Col d’eze time trial in Paris Nice and he is starting to show a repeat of that early season form. Michael Rogers as well has been in imperious form and he will want to show of the time trial capabilities which got him 3 world championships, especially as he will be able to give his all without needing to hold back to assist Wiggins as there is a rest day tomorrow. Of the contenders I would say Wiggins, Froome and Evans going on the time trial in the Dauphine will do well, particularly the former. Meanwhile Levi Leipheimer put in a disappointing time trial display for his lofty standards in Suisse and it is imperative that he does well today if he wants a high GC placing as his climbing will not be able to get him a top 10. Denis Menchov recently won the Russian time trial convincingly and must not be discounted either.

This stage also is heaped with heritage, due to its route. But more importantly the last time there was a time trial here it was won by Lance Armstrong. The disparity in the course will make it imperative that the riders time their efforts to precision as Wiggins did in the Dauphine and as opposed to how he did in the Vuelta where he gave too much early on, on a course of similar distance to this one. Of course this stage will also serve as the reawakening of last year’s battle between Martin and Cancellara as Cancellara attempts to reclaim his tag of being the best time triallist in the world.

“It was natural to choose the «the City of time» to host a time-trail of which the 41.5 km could carry a lot of weight at the end of the race. Besançon and its majestic citadel are linked to Arc-et-Senans, which is also a listed Unesco World Heritage site. The peloton’s best flat racers will try to minimize their time in a prestigious setting.” Christain Prudhomme

This could be decisive to the final GC. Bradley will be trying to win the stage and put as much time into his rivals as possible – every second counts. It’s an ideal length for him but not really as straightforward as the second time trial." Sean Yates

Stage contenders: Gustav Larsson, Westra;, Fabian Cancellara, Wiggins, Froome, Levi Leipheimer, Tony Martin, Bert Grabsch ,Cadel Evans, Denis Menchov ,Michael Rogers, Frederik Kessiakoff ,David Zabriskie ,David Millar, Patrick Gretsch, Peter Velits

THE OPPORTUNISTS’ STAGE 10 - Mâcon Bellegarde-sur-Valserine194.5 km

Climbs:



• Km 90.0 - Côte de Corlier - 6.4 km climb to 5.5 % - Category 2
• Km 151.5 - Col du Grand Colombier (1 501 m) - 17.4 km climb to 7.1 % - Category H
• Km 174.0 - Col de Richemond - 7.2 km climb to 5 % - Category 3

Sprint at Km 130.5 – BÉON

This stage will come after a rest day, yet more significantly it follows the time trial at Besancon. This will mean that a major GC shake up will have occurred yet once again more importantly it means that the time triallist will be in the ascendency. This will result in the climbers being required to attack in order to again time on the time triallists and if there was any stage suited for long range, desperate attacks it is this one.

The stage is dominated by the climb of the Grande Colombier is certainly one of the hardest that will ever be found within French borders, if not the hardest there is. At 17.4km at 7.1% it is long and leg breaking whilst also being consistent, yet is also has gradients of up to 18% It is also the first time it has ever been climber in the Tour and therefore it is somewhat of an unknown factor. It was raced in the Dauphine yet the racing was tame and Sky were more than able to control proceedings. Supposedly though at the Tour it will be a whole different story. The kms before the climb are not particularly hard but as Prudhomme has so debatably yet in my opinion so cleverly done, by placing the climb nearly 50km away from the stage finish. With a long downhill this will certainly play into the hands of the time triallists and weaker climbers who will very possibly be able to make up any time they lose on the descent. This is where the climbers have to truly show what they have. Instead of thinking of the next stage with its summit finish which would be foolhardy as there are limited opportunities to attack and gain time within the Tour and wasting this one may be irreparable.

The climbers will undoubtedly have a go but it is likely we will see a group of 6 or so riders who will break away and attempt to co-operate to the finish as occurred at the Dauphine, due to the fact that soloing on the descent will likely result in the rider getting caught by the peloton. In the Dauphine a similar type of break went including Evans and Nibali, yet Sky after an initial period of hesitation comfortable caught the break. It is evidently not enough to breakaway but you need to carry out a stinging attack which will shatter the peloton and by the time an organised chase comes along the rider will have gained enough time to take the win and valuable time on GC. As crucial therefore as the climb itself will be the descent and therefore it will be vital for riders who attack to be strong descenders. Of the modern peloton Vincenzo Nibali is certainly one of the best descenders along with Samuel Sanchez and if either one or both of them attack they can hold their own on the descent and then through to the finish. Likewise Cadel Evans is a strong descender as we saw last year when he joined with Sanchez and Contador to distance the Schlecks on a descent. Bradley Wiggins has struggled in the past on descents and Menchov and Gesink are infamously poor when it comes to descending and this may be the opportunity for the other contenders to take time out of them.

After the Colombier and its grand descent there is another rather less profiled obstacle in the riders’ way in the form of the Col de Richemond it is 7.2km at 5% and is ranked a category 3 climb which may not mean much but it in fact may impact heavily on the stage proceedings as riders may take it as an opportunity to drop those who were on the brink on the Colombier or who came back on the descent. There is then another 20 km to the finish for the riders to contend with.

This stage will certainly not decide the winner but it may very well give us and the riders themselves a good indication and it will also inform the peloton who really wants to go full out for the Maillot Jaune, by attacking 50km out.

In my opinion the rider who will battle it out will involve the strong descenders of the contenders as mentioned before along with the climbers who have nothing to lose because if they don’t attack on this they will never be capable of recouping the amount of time they lost and will lose in time trials These include Pierre Rolland, Frank Schleck and Alejandro Valverde.

“The rest day in Maçon will be necessary for the riders to attack this tenth, new and very promising stage. Before the descent to Bellegarde-sur-Valserine, the climbers who may have lost a few seconds in Doubs will have the opportunity to pull themselves together in the ascent leading to the summit of the Col du Grand Colombier. This is the first time that the peloton of the Tour de France has been there.” Christain Prudhomme



Stage Contenders: Fränk Schleck, Jurgen Van den Broeck, Jelle Vanendert,
Samuel Sanchez,Robert Gesink, Alexandre Vinokourov, Daniel Martin,
Michele Scarponi, Pierre Rolland, Cadel Evans, Ryder Hesjedal, Alejandro Valverde, Peter Velits, Bauke Mollema,

 

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Stage 11- The Queen Stage- STAGE 11148.0km
Albertville / La Toussuire - Les Sybelles

This stage may not be officially credited at the queen stage of the 99th Tour de France, but it is fair to say that it is indeed the queen stage. Stage 17 runs it close but with 2 HC category climbs in its route and a final climb which ,though rated as a category 1 climb, goes on for 18km and has been touted ideal for the pure climbers to take big time gaps out of their fellow contenders.

Climbs:
• Km 40.0 - Col de la Madeleine (2 000 m)25.3 kilometre-long climb at 6.2% - category H
• Km 93.0 - Col de la Croix de Fer (2 067 m)22.4 kilometre-long climb at 6.9% - category H
• Km 113.0 - Col du Mollard (1 638 m)5.7 kilometre-long climb at 6.8% - category 2
• Km 148.0 - LA TOUSSUIRE18 kilometre-long climb at 6.1% - category 1

Sprint at Km 70.0 - SAINT-ÉTIENNE-DE-CUINES

This stage comes after the Grande Colombier stage which will be a stage ridden at high velocity as the climbers look to scrap with each other in order to gain valuable seconds on the time triallists. This will mean there will be a bedraggled peloton lining up for the start in Albertville. Any misconceptions these riders have that they will be treated to an easy ride will certainly have those shattered within the first 40km of this stage which will be surely ridden at breath neck pace as the riders try to get in position for attacks as the first climb of the day the Col de Madeleine approaches. It is 25.3km at 6.2% and though it may not result in any decisive action it will certainly tire the riders left with 3 more climbs to come. Riders may attack on the Medeleine like Alberto Contador and Andy Schleck did last year on the Col de Telegraphe on Stage 19 of the Tour last year. That attack was on the first col of a short mountainous stage very similar in layout to this particular stage.

Then comes the Croix de Fer a mythical climb which will surely ignite this stage. It is 22.4km at 6.9% so it is long yet at the same time it is reasonably steep and constant which will hand climbers the perfect opportunity to attack. The climb comes just over 70km into the stage but more significantly it tops out at 2067 metres in altitude and only just over 50km away from the stage finish. Pre tour altitude training will really come in handy here and only the really capable contenders will be able to survive and stick with the front group if the pace is pushed by Sky or any other team intent on preventing attacks and seeing their leader take it at the finish.

The Col du Mollard is the next climb on the agenda and it is a more placid climb in comparison with the other climbs on this stage. But it will surely be raced at full speed as there will surely be attacks by high profile contenders on this stage considering it is the most mountainous stage in the Tour. Chasing up the Col de Mollard will surely sap all the riders’ still in contention of most of their remaining strength and there will be only be a brief respite before the much awaited climb of La Toussuire. The climb of La Toussuire last featured in the Tour in 2006 when it was Michael Rasmussen who claimed the honours and this year it is very likely we will see another pure climber taking the plaudits. It is only categorised as a category 1 climb due to its reasonably low gradient but it is 18km long and after the frantic racing which would surely have occurred over the previous 130km, it will not take much in order for one rider ride solo to the summit, if he has the strength to do so. The climb is the same as the one which was used on the deciding stage of the Dauphine and that time around it was safely negotiated by Wiggins who sealed his Dauphine win on the climb. Yet that stage wasn’t preceded by 2 HC climbs and the riders were merely preparing for the Tour. We can safely assume that this stage will be decisive in terms of GC and it will announce the true favourites for this year’s Tour de France.

In terms of the tactics which will be in play during this stage we will be looking at particular teams to take responsibility for the peloton in this stage and this will mean the strongest teams will have to take up the baton. The team which stands out is certainly team Sky who have the riders to ride hard on all the stages as they have 5 riders who can set high tempos on the climbs. Yet depending on the situation up to now we may see Vincenzo Nibali’s Liquigas team also starting to turn the screw with a couple of good climbing domestiques such as Carlos Sarmiento and then Ivan Basso and Slywester Szymd both of whom raced the Giro and so maybe not up to going for it themselves. Likewise we may see riders like Garmin’s Tom Danielson and Jelle Vanendert pulling the peloton for their leaders. Look out for Robert Gesink who looked strong on this climb in the Dauphine and who has been in strong form coming into the Tour. Additionally this stage seems suited to the climbing talents of Samuel Sanchez who suffered a setback in his Tour preparation when he bruised his ribs in the Dauphine but he is experienced and will surely be up to peak form by the time the race reaches the Alpes.

"One of the shortest stages in the 99thedition. But riders beware, it is a tough one! The course is simple: after the first thirteen kilometres from Albertville, the peloton will be hard pressed to find a single inch of flat terrain! The cyclists will tackle La Madeleine, La Croix de Fer and Le Mollard one after the other before the final climb up La Toussuire. Let me tell you, the final podium will start to take shape on the finish line here! Those who falter in this stage will get no second chances. The winner will not be known yet, but the losers certainly will." Jean Francois Pescheux“

"This is a very typical Tour de France stage and most of the climbs have been ridden before. Mountain top finishes are the only chances that the climbers who don’t time trial that well can get some gaps before the final stages." Allan Peiper

Stage Contenders:Fränk Schleck, Jurgen Van den Broeck, Jelle Vanendert
Samuel Sanchez, Robert Gesink, Daniel Martin, Chris Froome, Bradley Wiggins, Vincenzo Nibali, Ryder Hesjedal, Denis Menchov, Alejandro Valverde, Michele Scarponi, Juan Jose Cobo Acebo, Pierre Rolland, Cadel Evans

 

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STAGE 12 - Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne Annonay Davézieux226 km

Climbs
• Km 34.0 - Col du Grand Cucheron (1 188 m) - 12.5 km climb to 6.5 % - Category 1
• Km 80.5 - Col du Granier (1 134 m) - 9.7 km climb to 8.6 % - Category 1
• Km 207.5 - Côte d'Ardoix - 5.9 km climb to 3.4 % - Category 3

Sprint at Km 153.0 - MARCILLOLES

The last 2 stages would very likely have been full gas and this stage will be a desperately needed breather for all so I don’t think the beginning climbs will be ridden pretty hard, yet if anyone asides from a sprinter wants to take the fight up and go onto to win the stage they will need to ride the two climbs really hard either their team can push the pace on the climbs or they can go themselves and open up a really large gap.

Of course asides from the first two climbs both of which are category one and go for 12.5km and 9.7km at 6.5% and 8.6% respectively there is the category 3 climb of the Côte d'Ardoix which may also take something out of the sprinters. Truly though it will take a lot of graft from the sprinter teams to keep it together over the first 2 climbs and so if a break goes away it truly matters on which sprinters have managed to survive the climb and will therefore be putting there teams to work for a sprint finish. The last couple of kms also are a bit uphill so tired legs may not perform in the sprint even if they do survive the climbing beforehand.

All in all this day will be quit quiet GC wise but if Cavendish can show the climbing he was demonstrating in the ZLM Tour then he could be up there along with teammate Boassen Hagen and the likes of Sagan and Rojas. Yet they will be up against the likes of Vockler and Jerome Pineau who will very likely attack for the stage win. It’s a long stage and it will surely be a grind for the peloton who will have plenty of time to catch breaks yet whether they do is certainly not a given. All I can say is that it will certainly be a thrilling day of racing as every stage means so much that teams are determined to give their all every stage and this in my opinion is what makes the Tour stand out from the Giro, Vuelta or any other bike race.

"If they want to put themselves out of the reach of the sprinters, the fighters are advised to take advantage of the imposing Col du Grand Cucheron and the Col du Granier situated in the first part of the stage. The finish line will be marked out in Davézieux, in the “Communauté de communes” (federation of municipalities) of the Bassin d’Annonay." Christian Prudhomme

“This is somewhere that a break can stay away and take the stage victory. If the day’s break hasn’t gone by the final climb then it will be pretty hard to go after that. I don’t think there will be major GC changes here” Janez Brajkovic

STAGE 13 - Saint-Paul-Trois-Châteaux Le Cap d’Agde217 km

Climbs:
Km 194.0 - Mont Saint-Clair - 1.6 km climb to 10.2 % - Category 3

Sprint at Km 126.5 - MAS-DE-LONDRES

This stage is once again one of Prudhomme’s seemingly obvious sprint stages with a nasty sting in the tail.The profile of this particular stage is certainly misleading and that is for a couple of different reasons.

Particularly though that is because the wind is known to cause big problems around Cap d’Agde as was seen when the Tour went there last time in 2009. Also it is because of the climb of the Mont Saint Clair which comes 23km before the finish and it may be short but it is a leg breaker at 10.6km. If the wind is blowing hard like it may very well, this climb could very well splinter the peloton into bits and the sprinters could be knocked out of contention for the stage. The GC riders will also have to be careful because they also may very suffer from the wind and the likes of Denis Menchov, Nibali and Wiggins who all are not capable of putting sudden accelerations on short, steep climbs, will also need to be wary because the last 20km after the climb will certainly be ridden flat out and they may not have the man power to catch back on if strong teams like Evans’ BMC are represented in large numbers.

Also it is interesting to not that it is Bastille Day and a French winner will certainly be craved by the French public yet the last time a French man won on Bastille Day was David Moncoutie way back in 2005. Yet between the winds, which are due to the routes proximity to the Mediterranean and therefore the finish is close to one of the most illustrious windsurfing locations, and the sprinters the French opportunists may be denied the opportunity to seal their names in French folklore for evermore.

In terms of how the stage will play out it will probably start at a frantic pace as riders try to attack but with the certain unpredictability later in the stage the sprinter teams will set a high early tempo to ensure that the break consists of riders only of their choosing. By the Saint Clair the peloton may have split but if it hasn’t any Punchers such as Gilbert, Luis Leon Sanchez or Michel Albasini may try their luck and they could possibly take the stage honours otherwise whatever remaining sprinters there are will most likely battle it our for the stage because I cant see this stage being won by the breakaway due to the winds.

“For the many holidaymakers who go there in the summer, the road that leads to Cap d’Agde is very often peaceful, but in all probability it will be full of pitfalls for the Tour’s riders. On this part of the Mediterranean coast, the wind is unpredictable but it is nearly always present. Let’s remember for example, the Montpellier to La Grande-Motte stage during the 2009 Tour.” Christain Prudhomme

“Who knows what can happen on a stage like this? We’ll want a small unthreatening break to go early and then slowly real them in. But it could go the other way and if it’s hot and windy like it often is down here, it could be horrible day” Andre Greipel

 

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STAGE 14 - Limoux Foix191 km

Climbs:

• Km 30.0 - Col du Portel (601 m) - 5.3 km climb to 6.3 % - Category 2
• Km 126.5 - Port de Lers (1 517 m) - 11.4 km climb to 7 % - Category 1
• Km 152.5 - Mur de Péguère (1 375 m) - 9.3 km climb to 7.9 % - Category 1

Sprint at Km 99.0 - TARASCON-SUR-ARIÈGE

This stage is a nice welcome to the Pyrenees rather than the full blown mountain stages we have come to expect. Yet it will certainy be an intriguing stage which will most likely pan out similar to last year’s stages 16 & 17.

The stage starts off relatively docile. No action in the first 100km but then the going starts getting tough. The Port de Lers is a very tough climb at 11.4km at 7% and certainly a typical Pyrenees climb which will certainly reduce the size of the peloton as fatigue starts to kick in after 13 tough stages and the prologue. The climb was first used in 1995 when Marco Pantani crested its 1570 metre summit en route to victory. But it will certainly be the second climb which will cause the most problems; the Mur de Peguere has never before been climbed in the Tour though it was supposed to be raced in 1973 until the riders complained that the descent was too dangerous. The descent wont be a factor all that much as the roads have been resurfaced but it will certainly test some legs and this will be the ideal place for riders who have lost and know they will lose more time in the Time trial to really put in a strong dig and try and shed some of the other favorites. The favorites may catch up on the descent but as mentioned previously good descenders such as Nibali, Evans and Sanchez certainly have the ability to stay away as Evans, Sanchez and Contador did last year, when they took considerable time out of Andy Schleck.

The climb is certainly one for attacking but its steep gradients mean that a fast tempo can also do some serious damage and the out and out climbers like Pierre Rolland and Robert Gesink may fancy pushing the pace really high to inflict pain on the more Time trial based contenders. The climb is 9.3km at 7.9% which is a typical leg breaking style of Pyrenean climb but it is the maximum gradients of 18% which really will make the riders suffer.
Yet like most of the climbs in this years Tour there is one catch it is far out from the finish, around 39.5 km to be precise and that provides a strong team like Sky with plenty of time to catch the attackers. This stage may very well go to a break but it will certainly serve up some interesting action amongst the GC contenders as well, which is what Prudhomme has planned all along because the climbers cant wait for the proper mountain stages to attack but rather they need to take every opportunity possible when the road rises.

“The Pyrenean series will begin with a day of discovery that the fittest climbers will appreciate. The steep slopes of the Port de Lers and above all of the Mur de Péguère may well cause a lot of harm. The Mur de Péguère, which was initially chosen for the Tour’s route in 1973, but was not featured in the end, boasts areas where riders face gradients of almost 14%.” Christain Prudhomme

“By this stage, the race will have settled and there will be certain time gaps, so the likes of Thomas Voeckler can take a decent lead and stay away until the finish. It’s a hard day, with two cols and the Port de Lers, but not one that will be decisive.” Sean Yates

STAGE 15 - Samatan Pau158.5 km

This may be last chance saloon for many sprinters if they decide to forgo the Pyrenees proper and they will be determined to sprint for the stage win, but this is the Tour and anything can happen.

Climbs:

• Km 107.0 - Côte de Lahitte-Toupière - 2.1 km climb to 5.3 % - Category 4
• Km 123.5 - Côte de Simacourbe - 1.9 km climb to 6.3 % - Category 3
• Km 129.0 - Côte de Monassut-Audiracq - 1.5 km climb to 5.4 % - Category 4

Sprint at Km 101.5 – MAUBOURGUET

Also something that has to be considered is that the green jersey competition will be drawing to a close and this may be one of the only times before Paris where sprinters will be able to pick up points at the finish. Somethng else to be considered is whether sprinters will try and go for the intermeditate sprint points. If Cavendish had not gone for them last year then he would not have won the green jersey but the question is whether teams with riders in the hunt for the green jersey will be willing to keep breaks reigned in and allow their rider, particularly if he is one of the faster sprinters, to go for the sprint points at the intermediate sprint. This stages sprint points come 100km into the stage but it will be tough for teams to keep it together up until then especially with so many riders who will undoubtedly want to get a win for their team before the Tour is over, getting into breaks. With the green jersey riders likely to be of the ilk of Sagan, Cavendish, Rojas and Gilbert all of whom have team leaders going for GC it may be a bit too much to ask to tire out domestiques which will need to be used sparingly in order to assist their GC leaders when the time is necessary as the Tour heads towards its crucial last week. One rider who will be the sole leader of his team is Mathew Goss and so it may be down to his Orica Green-edge team to control proceedings on this stage.

In terms of this stage it seems to be a sprinters stage but with a number of climbs within the last 50 km or so it may not turn out to be simple for the sprinters. Yet the climbs are not too tough and any riders who are in good enough form should be able to hold on until the last climb of the Côte de Monassut-Audiracq and from there on in it should be plain sailing.

The finish is certainly pretty famous and it is indeed the Pyrenees town of Pau which generally pays host to stage finishes which would not see a sprinter until well after the stage winner has accepted his bouquet but this time round the route seems to bypass the hilly regions of the area and instead though by no means flat this stage is much more straightforward than previous ones.

Having said all of that this stage will most likely will be contested by the usual sprinters: Sagan, Goss, Cavendish etc yet riders like Kenny Van Hummel and Marcel Kittel may struggle here and we may not see them feature in the finish.

“The riders who have had the good idea of entering the Route du Sud race will discover Samatan again, a stage town in 2011. Unfortunately they will have to miss out on its foie gras before they take part in the stage.The day will not present any major difficulties, but the teams of sprinters will be impatient to fight it out to win the stage.” Christian Prudhomme
“The question is here how many of the top sprinters can get over the climbs? Matt Goss is a really good climber so he should be there to contend the finish. Thor Hushovd on a good day could also win this stage. We’ll have to wait and see” Alan Peiper

 

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To be filled soon

 

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STAGE 18 - Blagnac Brive-la-Gaillarde222.5 km

Climbs:

• Km 67.5 - Côte de Saint-Georges - 1.0 km climb to 10.3 % - Category 3
• Km 117.5 - Côte de Cahors - 1.0 km climb to 7.8 % - Category 4
• Km 180.5 - Côte de Souillac - 2.2 km climb to 4.7 % - Category 4
• Km 212.5 - Côte de Lissac-sur-Couze - 1.9 km climb to 5.7 % - Category 4

Sprint at Km 115.0 - CAHORS

Well this will be a day of rest in the most likely circumstance for most of the peloton but the sprinters and their teams will certainly see today as theirs for the taking and whilst there have been obstacles in previous sprint stages on this one it seems pretty straightforward and a non sprint win would be extremely surprising given the route and the position it has within this Tour.

I will keep this preview short as I am running out of time and still need to do the mountains stages, but the route of this stage is pretty simple and sprinters will be willing to take this opportunity with open hands. The route is of course one which is relatively flat but it is up and down a bit, with the final climb the Côte de Lissac-sur-Couze coming only 10 km away from the finish. This wont shed the sprinters in all likelihood but it will give breakaway men who are just as desperate for a win something to work with if they want to stay away.

Another dilemma which the sprinters face is that of the Olympics. By this point of the Tour they will pretty exhausted if they have been left at all and this means that they will not want to ride full gas the whole stage and giving it their all because they will certainly have half an eye on the Road race where they will require their maximum amounts of energy. Indeed due to the Olympics there may not be many sprinters remaining in the race and the only ones we may see contest this stage may very well be only contested by the sprinters who are going for the green jersey as the others may have decided to leave before the Pyrenees in order to prepare and rest prior to the Olympics. This is especially relevant to this stage which is long and will take a lot out of the sprinters legs if they decide to stay till the finale. That being the case a break could go here but it all matters on which sprinters are gunning for the green jersey. The Orica Green-edge is based around Goss and so if he is still in the race they may be willing to take the stage by the scruff of its neck and reel the break back in, otherwise it may be a bit of a bore if the peloton don’t react and give the break 15minutes with only a couple of km to go.

Mainly this stage will serve as a respite for the GC riders who will want to ride at a leisurely pace as they recover from the racing in the Pyrenees and in order to prepare for the decisive time trial the very next day

“The leaders of the general classification are advised to get their breath back, but it is unsure whether the teams of sprinters, who have not been able to express themselves for a long time, will let them have this luxury. The club of finishers capable of challenging Cavendish during a grouped confrontation is increasing: Brive appears to be a city that is there for the taking.” Christain Prudhomme
“This long stage will be very tiring and it is also the last chance to shine for many riders. Do I think a break could succed? Yes I’m 99% sure. The GC leaders must keep their strength for the next day’s time trial and the teams will be tired.” Jeremy Roy


STAGE 19 - Bonneval Chartres53.5 km

After 19 days of flat out racing, we finally come to the last hurrah. This will be the decider where the true victor of the Tour will be revealed. There are many different situations in GC which could lead to different riders wearing the yellow jersey into this stage, but what is certain is that the rider who is wearing the yellow jersey on this stage will have to put on the performance of his life, if he truly wants to wear it to Paris.

The route is as flat as a pancake and half as flat again, this will certainly suit the specialists and the true power riders namely Fabian Cancellara and Tony Martin who have both won the last time trial of the Tour in previous years. The first 38km are very fast and consist primarily of well paved roads, yet the next 15.5 km are trickier and it will require some good bike handling skills of which Fabian Cancellara is a specialist.

The stage itself is not guaranteed to go to a specialist who has been taking it relatively easy throughout the Tour for the sole purpose of having a go on this time trial, but rather one of the GC favourites particularly the likes of Cadel Evans and Denis Menchov may take the stage, both have demonstrated some considerable acumen when it comes to last stage grand tour time trials, most famously Menchov when he rode his way onto the podium in 2010 and Evans when he won the Tour last year and nearly won the stage eventually only coming 6 seconds behind Tony Martin. Bradley Wiggins as well may have a shoo in if his early season time trials are anything to go by but we have never seen Wiggins perform to the highest standard in one of these time trials. Other favourites such as Chris Froome and Peter Velits may also feature. Whether this stage is claimed by a GC contender or a specialist depends on the endurance as the GC contenders have much greater endurance and will have much more left in their legs than the specialists as their forte is in recovery and endurance. This explains why Cancellara did so disappointingly last year in the final time trial whilst Evans, who would usually not challenge Martin, came so close. Yet the specialists will also feature. Expect power riders like Bert Grabsch, David Millar and David Zabriskie to come close to the podium. Also the some of the specialists may have left to prepare for Olympics and this will give others the opportunity to step up.

All in all this stage will be the decider for the Tour and it will be a fitting decider as well as it involves no variables apart from the riders themselves. Indeed this time trial will truly live up to the name: The race of truth. The contenders will likely be Evans and Wiggins, both of whom are fine time triallists in their own right. Also riders who may feature come this final day is Gesink who has improved significantly on the time trial bike with top 5’s in the Dauphine and the Tour of California. Jurgen Van den Broeck has also improved his time trial but he will surely lose big chunks of time, nevertheless to the main favourites. Samuel Sanchez is also a good time triallist yet he not on the same level as Wiggins and Evans and he will also very likely lose time. It may very well come down to a climber battling to limit his time losses as a roleur gains time on him. In conclusion this stage will be one which with all certainty I can not say is not worth missing….

“This will be the moment of truth. Let the climbers be warned: with a last 52-km long time-trial to tackle, they will have to gain a significant amount of time in the mountains. And the best flat racers know that, during a final attack, everything can be seen in a new light.” Christian Prudhomme

“For the first 38km it’s super fast and nice roads, then it does get trickier. It’s a big distance and it will obviously play a decisive role in the final results. It’s the last chance for a reversal of any positions and it’s going to be interesting” Sean Yates

Stage contenders: Westra, Fabian Cancellara, Wiggins:, Froome:, Levi Leipheimer, Andreas Kloden,Tony Martin,Bert Grabsch,Cadel Evans, Denis Menchov ,
Michael Rogers,Frederik Kessiakoff, David Zabriskie, David Millar, Richie Porte

 

[Froome19]

STAGE 20 - Rambouillet Paris Champs-Élysées120 km

Climbs

• Km 36.5 - Côte de Saint-Rémy-lès-Chevreuse - 1.1 km climb to 6.7 % - Category 4
• Km 40.5 - Côte de Châteaufort (Stèle Jacques Anquetil) - 0.9 km climb to 4.5 % - Category 4

Sprint at Km 84.5 – PARIS

We would have had excitement, joy, ecstasy.

We would have had disappointment, frustration, hopelessness

Yet on the Champs Champs-Élysées all of this will be forgotten, seemingly a figment of the past.
The peloton will be celebrating their achievments and they all will have something to celebrate. Even the disappointed sprinters who had not picked up any wins or the GC rider who finished outside the top10 will have been succesful, because finishing the Tour is an achievement which will live forever in many of the riders’ memories, it is an achievement regardless of the ups and down they experience along the way. It is an achievement which is unique to the 180 or so riders who will ride into Paris and they undoubtedly will all enter with their heads help high as they know they have done all they possibly can to attain success.
In terms of the stage itself don’t expect any surprises as the sprinters will be ready to give the public a presentation of raw speed. It is also the shortest stage at 120km and is has been the final destination of the Tour since 1975. The break will most likely not do a repeat of 2005 where Vinokourouv stayed away until the end because the finish is flat out. The sprinter teams will certainly be alert and they will drive a hard pace making it difficult for any breakaways to gain enough advantage towards the end. The stage will run with an easy start outside of Paris and the Tour will climb its last two climbs with the KOM winner leading the peloton over the climbs, then the parading ceases and the real racing begins There will be a very fast entry onto the finishing circuit and there will be 8 very high speed laps which will finish with a dramatic sprint to the line.
If Mark Cavendish is still in the race he will be looking for his 4th win on the Champs and having won on the infamous stage for the three previous years. Of course he may have gone home already but if not it is hard to look past him of course the gap between him and the others sprinters seems to be closing and any sprinter who is left will be looking to gain a win which will be like gold dust on their palmares.

This stage represents the very best the Tour has to offer it will give us a chance to see the finest sprinters in the wolrd battling it out whilst it also serves as a commercial interest which will be broadcasted across the globe. The atmosphere will be one for the overall winner to sample as it undoubtedly be deserved with the testing nature of this years route.

“This promises to be a very emotional stage, with the memory of the final start in Yvelines and the last time-trial won by Greg LeMond in 1989. Although there may be slightly less suspense there, many thrills are guaranteed on the final circuit. An adventure will come to an end for all the riders who take this route, and the handful of sprinters who are competing for the victory will provide a performance that is always entertaining” Christian Prudhomme

“Part celebration, part flat-out sprint, it’s the one all the fast guys want. If it’s tight for the green jersey the stakes will be even higher. Hopefully I’ll slingshot off Greg Henderson’s wheel 150m from the line for the win.” Andre Greipel


Vive Le Tour!

 

[Froome19]

To be filled soon

 

[Froome19]

Please use some bold and other formatting because it is currently unreadable

Bear with me, I will be editing all the stages, adding profiles and the formatting and adding the 3 stages I missed out soon but I am currently a bit cramped for time

 

[LaFlorecita]

Wtf froomie, wish there was a thank you button, is this the 16000 words thing?

 

[hiero2]

Hey, have you guys seen the CN video preview series? Great stuff, except for having to listen to a 30 sec commercial for every 1.5 min episode.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/video-chris-boardman-previews-the-2012-tour-de-france

 

[MonteZoncolan]

Wowzers

Bonzai effort there Froome. Much appreciated and I'll enjoy using this in conjunction with live telly watching.
Chapeau.

 

[Climeon]

Great preview. How long did it take you to do this?