Velits and Roche to Top Ten

[cocteau_ireland]

B4 the shakedown i was pretty convinced (oh definite term) that these two would end gc at this point Yey r ney

 

[kurtinsc]

Had to think about this.

In no particular order, guys who are pretty solid for a top 10 in my mind would be:

Schleck 1
Schleck 2
Contador
Evans
Kloden

I would be shocked if any of the above do not finish in the top 10.

Guys who are likely for the top 10 would be:
S. Sanchez
JVDB
Basso

And then there are the others who have a reasonable shot:
Velits
Roche
Martin
Vino
Gesink (only because of the talk of withdrawing and injury)
Vandevelde
Danielson
Taaramae
Cunego
Fuglsang (really only if a Schleck goes down)
Uran
Leipheimer
Coppel

They both have very good chances. I see them in the 6-15 range for sure, but there will be some fighting still for the top 10.

 

[ericthesportsman6]

Had to think about this.

In no particular order, guys who are pretty solid for a top 10 in my mind would be:

Schleck 1
Schleck 2
Contador
Evans
Kloden

I would be shocked if any of the above do not finish in the top 10.

Guys who are likely for the top 10 would be:
S. Sanchez
JVDB
Basso

And then there are the others who have a reasonable shot:
Velits
Roche
Martin
Vino
Gesink (only because of the talk of withdrawing and injury)
Vandevelde
Danielson
Taaramae
Cunego
Fuglsang (really only if a Schleck goes down)
Uran
Leipheimer
Coppel

They both have very good chances. I see them in the 6-15 range for sure, but there will be some fighting still for the top 10.

Cadel Evans and Kloden are solid for the top 10? Seriously? People are reading way too much into Cuddles form on the hilly stages.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

The problem with a top 10 is, well, that it fits only 10 people.

Contador
Schleck
Schleck
Evans
Basso
JVDB
Gesink
Klöden
Cunego
Sanchez
De Weert
Leipheimer
Martin
Velits
Roche
...

If you were convinced this would pan out before you knew Wiggins, Horner, Brajkovic would not finish, that's pretty impressive.

 

[kurtinsc]

Cadel Evans and Kloden are solid for the top 10? Seriously? People are reading way too much into Cuddles form on the hilly stages.

Top 10 isn't something that's exactly superhuman. You're talking about staying within 10-15 minutes of the leader.

Both have shown already that they have good form. Both have shown in the past that while they aren't superior climbers like Andy or Alberto, they are capable when their form is good. And both teams are now totally devoted to their GC hopes.

With those two riders in those conditions, a crash is pretty much the only way they end up outside the top 10.

With Basso, his form is still in doubt. Sanchez has some time loss already under his belt and I'm not 100% about his form yet. If they had both already shown that they were on top of their games, I'd have them in the "solid for top 10" category too. We aren't talking podiums here... simply finishing amongst the 10 best GC times.

 

[ManInFull]

Cadel Evans and Kloden are solid for the top 10? Seriously? People are reading way too much into Cuddles form on the hilly stages.

I am not convinced that Kloden will be in the top 10. However, I'm feeling good about Evans. Anyway, we will not find out for sure until Thursday's Stage 12.

 

[ericthesportsman6]

Top 10 isn't something that's exactly superhuman. You're talking about staying within 10-15 minutes of the leader.

Both have shown already that they have good form. Both have shown in the past that while they aren't superior climbers like Andy or Alberto, they are capable when their form is good. And both teams are now totally devoted to their GC hopes.

With those two riders in those conditions, a crash is pretty much the only way they end up outside the top 10.

With Basso, his form is still in doubt. Sanchez has some time loss already under his belt and I'm not 100% about his form yet. If they had both already shown that they were on top of their games, I'd have them in the "solid for top 10" category too. We aren't talking podiums here... simply finishing amongst the 10 best GC times.

Ok. But why is Basso's form in such doubt compared to Kloden? Or even Evans? He hasn't been dropped or crashed up to this point. And neither Klodi or Basso have ever made an attempt to ride for the win.

 

[ingsve]

I'm not so sure about Roche. He hasn't shown anything yet this year and in this Tour he hasn't been among the ones that have looked the best.

Velits will depend on what HTC decides to do. I'm not sure yet if they'll sacrifice one of Martin or Velits to ride for the other. I'm guessing though that Martin is the one that cracks first so that it's more likely Martin that will have to work for Velits.

All in all there are a lot of guys that will try to hang on as best they can in the climbs that will occupy the 8th-20th spots and it's often hard to know beforehand how they all will finish between themselves.

 

[kurtinsc]

Ok. But why is Basso's form in such doubt compared to Kloden? Or even Evans? He hasn't been dropped or crashed up to this point. And neither Klodi or Basso have ever made an attempt to ride for the win.

Mainly on stage 4.

Kloden isn't exactly puncy, but he finished in the front group. Basso finished at 6 seconds.

Minor? I guess. But for me, Kloden doesn't stay with that front group on that kind of climb unless he's on very good form. I suppose I could be reading too much into that though.

Note... I'm not saying Basso is NOT on form. Just I feel that Kloden definitely is.

 

[greenedge]

Well you can strike JVDB and Vino out.

 

[cocteau_ireland]

How cud anyone have watched velits at the vuelta n not think he'd top ten As 4 roche, well that dauphine stage was enuff 4 me So many bloody awful ones out that hey 'just ice' aint only a band in my town

 

[PedalCastro]

Would love to see Roche top 10 but i'd prefer a stage win at this stage..

 

[unsheath]

Ok. But why is Basso's form in such doubt compared to Kloden? Or even Evans? He hasn't been dropped or crashed up to this point. And neither Klodi or Basso have ever made an attempt to ride for the win.

Basso's lead up has been hampered by his crash on etna. He's on record as saying he needs the first week to ride into form.

 

[Cimber]

With so many gc-contenders out or injured they have every chance to do a top 10.

 

[Kerbdog]

I hope Roche goes Top 10. I put 50 Euro on him at 10/1 to finish in it. The guys got a great chance.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

I hope Roche goes Top 10. I put 50 Euro on him at 10/1 to finish in it. The guys got a great chance.

If he has the same form he had in the Vuelta (or better), then yes he has a great chance, particularly given the walloping the contenders have taken so far. But we don't actually know that he has that form. His preparation was badly disrupted by his crash and he rode much of the first week with visible bandages. We'll know on the first real mountain stage.

Velits looks like a solid top 10 bet at this point, unless HTC really do have him fetching bottles for Martin.

 

[movingtarget]

The should both top 10 the way things are going. I expect Martin to drop back unless his climbing has improved a lot.

 

[dutchie]

Veltis was under pressure today and Roche has his team to thank for bringing him up to 10th overall after today--will Veltis and Roche improve in the mountains,not sure about V but i think Roche has good chance for top 10.

 

[Midnightfright]

It's starting to look likely that Roche could Dennis Menchov his way to a top 10

 

[roundabout]

To be honest after looking like he was floundering somewhat after all the bike changes on the Tourmalet finishing at 4.15 was ok by Velits.

 

[Parrulo]

honestly velits performance today was a lot more impressive then roche's

he crashed on the way to the tourmalet and got back to the pack and then had a mechanical at the exact moment leopard started pushing up the front. that with a slow change of bike put him minutes behind. he then spent all tourmalet and all luz ardiden recovering and still only finished 2:15 behind roche who spent the entire stage on the pack until the moment he got dropped by the pace setted by szmyd.

 

[roundabout]

I don't think he was minutes behind. It looked like he had the Mavic service car which was behind the peloton in sight so he was probably less than a minute back.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

To be honest after looking like he was floundering somewhat after all the bike changes on the Tourmalet finishing at 4.15 was ok by Velits.

Yes, and now there's no chance that he'll have to work for Martin. Velits will do well.

 

[Ragerod]

Impressed by Velits. I expect he would've been right up there in the top 15 had it not been for a crash and three bike changes. Gaining 5 minutes on Martin despite all that must mean Martin becomes his domestique. A top 10 finish is still very much on the cards.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Oddly, neither of them are out of the top 10 reckoning. Velits was very unlucky earlier in the state, but he did surprisingly well in making up ground. Roche got dropped early, but was actually wise to let go early and then make his own pace (with the help of his team) and moved into the top 10. He overtook a lot of riders who hung on after him.

I still think that one of them will finish in the top 10.