Teams & Riders Vincenzo Nibali discussion thread

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The realistic goal should be a podium. Which would be number 12 in a GT. Twelve. With Hinault, Merckx, Gimondi, 1 more than Froome. Record is 13, Anquetil. Just to show a much of a champion he is.

Now onto the real stuff. Piancavallo was ridden fast, and in non-Nibali fashion (hard continuous pace from almost the bottom, a la Sky-train). Madonna di Campiglio might also be a problem if ridden in the same way. (By the way that's a weird stage, most likely outcome is all waiting for the final climb, but that side of Bondone is a crazy hard climb, let's see if anything happens there...)

But Stelvio, Agnello and Izoard are different beasts. Longer, high altitude, and you are bound to go mano a mano in the final kms. This is where IMHO Nibali is at his bests: slower approach, only heads of states remaining, and full battle with no or little domestiques help. Think about Tour 2015: nowhere on PSM with Sunweb Sky drilling, but probably the second best climber on the Alps.

Back to reality. Kelderman looks unbeatable. But I struggle to believe there are other two riders stronger than him on the Stelvio or Izoard.
 
The realistic goal should be a podium.
Perhaps Trek is interested in a podium but why would Nibali want it? I mean he's 36, he's got a gazillion GTs in his career, his legacy won't change if he blows up and finish this Giro 15th (which is rather unlikely anyway, considering the riders behind him).
I'm pretty sure in 10 years we'll remember his performance in this Giro a lot more fondly if he goes into a suicidal attack from Bondone or Agnello rather than him waiting for TGH or Almeida to pop and find himself on the podium without ever attacking once.
 
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Perhaps Trek is interested in a podium but why would Nibali want it? I mean he's 36, he's got a gazillion GTs in his career, his legacy won't change if he blows up and finish this Giro 15th (which is rather unlikely anyway, considering the riders behind him).
I'm pretty sure in 10 years we'll remember his performance in this Giro a lot more fondly if he goes into a suicidal attack from Bondone or Agnello rather than him waiting for TGH or Almeida to pop and find himself on the podium without ever attacking once.
Has to have legs for that though. Contador 2011 attacking was for the ages.

Quintana on 2017 Croix de Fer. Not so much
 
Can't see anything happen in stage 16.
With his ride yesterday, I don't see him spectaculary better next week. He can't take minutes without a team. First Bahrein and now Trek, they aren't simply good enough, okey now hey have lots of bad luck, but even with Ciccone & Brambilla, the team wouldn't be strong enough do to crazy.
He will never do what Froome did with his solo.
They're saying his level must be good enough now? Can't believe it. Seriously with this riders who're better?
Never liked the Slongo approach, but this is ridicilous. Waiting, waiting and waiting. I really hope he goes for 1 day races next year, and another approach, please.
 
I'm willing to believe he did himself no favors by blowing up and maybe could've done 6.0. I don't believe he can do 2014 all of a sudden and not even that would be enough.

Hell 5.9 was the number for MAL in the Tour on Col de la Loze. An hour at 5.9 at an average altitude above the finish of Piancavallo. And the gaps in the top were small there. It's like they're not even in the same race.
One thing I'd like to understand: Nibali looked a fair bit stronger than MAL in Giro 2019 (he finished off the podium), where only Carapaz beat him in a field that included Roglic, MAL, Landa, Majka, et al.

We've been told that apparently his power data is not that far off what he's done at Bahrain. How come that now it doesn't seem enough to be competitive at the Giro, which in turn is not overall nearly as competitive as the Tour?

Wtf happened from last year? Maybe you guys can help me understand...
 
One thing I'd like to understand: Nibali looked a fair bit stronger than MAL in Giro 2019 (he finished off the podium), where only Carapaz beat him in a field that included Roglic, MAL, Landa, Majka, et al.

We've been told that apparently his power data is not that far off what he's done at Bahrain. How come that now it doesn't seem enough to be competitive at the Giro, which in turn is not overall nearly as competitive as the Tour?

Wtf happened from last year? Maybe you guys can help me understand...
Lets just say its mainly being discussed in The Clinic subforum
 
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Thing is in 2018 nor 2016 there weren't guys doing the fastest climbing times in well over a decade. In 2016, Kruijswijk was just strong, but not unbeatable at all and still needed to crash to lose it. In 2018 Froome had already won the Zoncolan and there had been the insanity that was the Finestre stage. Both raids were also backed up by the strongest team in the race at the most critical stages of the race.

Riders were talking about record numbers all the way through the Tour, I thought it was obvious the same would happen in the Giro, in absolute terms, and it seems all the usual suspects missed the memo. Nibali isn't even that trash compared to the guys he's mostly been beating for the better part of a decade, especially if you account hanging on for too long cause only winning matters (Contador speçial). Sure there's an argument today didn't suit him, but there is a stratospheric gap between where Nibali was now and where he'd need to be to have a shot at winning. I think the top 4 of today are all out of reach. With that, a stage might also be out of reach. All that's left is maybe cause some mayhem and a good show and go down swinging this Giro, but to really go down swinging is much easier if you just had a random trash day but the form is otherwise up there, i.e. Contador 2011 Tour/2017 Vuelta and stuff like that.
I imagine that I would need to go to the other section of this forum to make some sense of this, in which case I may really need to quit my day job!
 
About this 3rd week... it's not Nibali that's the specialist, it's Astana. Both Nibali in 2016 and Aru in 2015 (+ Nibali TdF to some extend) had those ressurections and both were part of Astana. After that Nibali didn't really show any sudden spikes in performance. In 2017 and 2019 his 3rd week was roughly equal to the rest.

He'll most likely try to push the descents if possible but the guy already lost big chunks of time, he doesn't seem to be there uphill and he doesn't have any team so the main teams (DQS, Sunweb, Skineos?) can just ignore him and control the gap on the following uphill.
 
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I agree. But there is also a fair argument for saving legs for an ambush at stage 17 ( yes, stage 17, not the Stelvio one ). But he needs great legs, and allies, lots of it. Call Vino, Ineos, Pozzo etc.
Yes, stage 17 is much, much better for an all out attack than stage 16. Actually, it's probably his best chance. Because he will be given some freedom there, with everyone saving something for the next day (except for Almeida of course :p).

Maybe he totally blows up on Stelvio because of it, but to win with tactics rather then legs (like Alberto at Fuente De), it's stage 17 all the way.

There are no surprises on Stelvio.
 
About this 3rd week... it's not Nibali that's the specialist, it's Astana. Both Nibali in 2016 and Aru in 2015 (+ Nibali TdF to some extend) had those ressurections and both were part of Astana. After that Nibali didn't really show any sudden spikes in performance. In 2017 and 2019 his 3rd week was roughly equal to the rest.
Yeah that's another narrative which got going a few years ago and never died.
Same for the altitude really. In 2017 there was the back to back Stelvio stage he won, but mainly because of the descent. He couldn't drop Zakarin/Pozzovivo on the climb.
 
Perhaps Trek is interested in a podium but why would Nibali want it? I mean he's 36, he's got a gazillion GTs in his career, his legacy won't change if he blows up and finish this Giro 15th (which is rather unlikely anyway, considering the riders behind him).
I'm pretty sure in 10 years we'll remember his performance in this Giro a lot more fondly if he goes into a suicidal attack from Bondone or Agnello rather than him waiting for TGH or Almeida to pop and find himself on the podium without ever attacking once.
I would fully agree if this were, I don't know, his 9th or 10th GT podium.
But he has a chance to equal giants of the sports by getting his 12th, with a small but reasonable chance to equal the historical record of 13th next year.
Now, will Nibali think about all of this? To be honest I have no clue. In another stage of his career, certainly not.
But now, at 35, wouldn't it make sense to do so? I mean, the Stelvio attack is a given if he is with the leaders in the last 5-7 kms. If it works, fantastico. But if it doesn't and 'only' gets a second/third in the stage, and he is on virtual GC podium, should we really expect him to go full out on the Agnello or Izoard and risk blowing up, or just play it safe and aim for the podium?
 
I would fully agree if this were, I don't know, his 9th or 10th GT podium.
But he has a chance to equal giants of the sports by getting his 12th, with a small but reasonable chance to equal the historical record of 13th next year.
Now, will Nibali think about all of this? To be honest I have no clue. In another stage of his career, certainly not.
But now, at 35, wouldn't it make sense to do so? I mean, the Stelvio attack is a given if he is with the leaders in the last 5-7 kms. If it works, fantastico. But if it doesn't and 'only' gets a second/third in the stage, and he is on virtual GC podium, should we really expect him to go full out on the Agnello or Izoard and risk blowing up, or just play it safe and aim for the podium?
In his post-stage statement he said something like "after today the stakes are still high". It struck me as a reckoning that pink is probably out of reach, but the podium may be within his capabilities. So I actually kind of agree with this.
 

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