Vuelta a España:Stage 3 August 30, Marbella - Malaga 157,3km

[Mellow Velo]

Vuelta a España:Stage 3 August 30, Marbella - Malaga 157,3km

All I can offer in the way of route info:

Profile:


Last 3km:


Weather:


Climbs:
Puerto de Ojén 8,7km 4,94% 2nd cat
Puerto del León 15,8km 5,44% 1st cat

 

[hrotha]

Breakaway, or Van Avermaet/Gilbert.

 

[roundabout]

The big climb

 

[Sophistic]

Obviously something for the likes of Phillipe Gilbert and may be also for some gc riders like Anton or Rodriguez, especially with the time bonuses on the line, gonna be fun.

 

[liamclarke4]

im going with ben swift he can climb abit & hes got a good sprint

 

[kjetilraknerud]

WC-hopefuls like Gilbert shouldn't be in top form so early in the race, so I wouldn't put me money on him.
Long shot:

1. Barredo
2. Nocentini
3. P. Velits

 

[icefire]

Our hosts at CN still have in their site the stage profile from the Vuelta presentation in December last year:

Note the two differences:
* Alto del León is climbed only once
* The summit is now further from the finish, thanks to an extra tour on the flat highway around Málaga, just to help any potential breakaway or bunch split

 

[roundabout]

Yeah, i liked the original version of the stage a lot more. Still think the main action will happen on the climb and all early breaks will be caught before the finish.

 

[The Hitch]

if this stage is taken like it would be in the tdf, cav will win this. (remember hushovd leading in contador and schleck on the queen stage)

Hoping someone will have a go. Barredo. Andalucia Caja Sur. anyone will don.
Maybe canc will have a go (on the descent). I have no idea how long he wants to stay in this vuelta, but if the answer is not long he might as well try something, especially with no tt till second half of the vuelta.

Breakaway for the win.

 

[auscyclefan94]

van avermaet or gilbert.

 

[taiwan]

Van Avermaet's geting a lot of love, considering his results this year...

 

[theyoungest]

Van Avermaet's geting a lot of love, considering his results this year...

Yeah, he's had zero wins (I think?) but he's always been up there, and he's been climbing remarkably well. So it's not such a long shot. But even within his own team he has a more likely candidate to win this stage.

 

[Mellow Velo]

As have Ag2r, with Roche, Nocentini and Le Mevel.
My first instinct was to go for Gilbert, but there are a hatful of candidates for this finish.
Same again, on stage 4, too.................

 

[icefire]

If guessing the stage winner is not enough, you may try to figure out who will wear in the red jersey

 

[The Hitch]

If guessing the stage winner is not enough, you may try to figure out who will wear in the red jersey

whoever wins. They get a 20 second bonus, 8 over second and most of the teams are bunched together. dont know if htc will send someone into the break as the team with red jersey.

 

[ericthesportsman6]

Carlos Barredo

 

[Highlander]

I don't care who wins as long as it isn't a bunch sprint. With that much distance from the summit to the finish line, the worst possible scenario will see the peloton take their time up the mountain and give riders like Cav the chance to catch back on and set up a boring finish.

 

[theswordsman]

This bit of description has me intrigued. I hope it's a battle.

Rabobank team director, Adri van Houwelingen likens the final climb to Amstel Gold's centerpiece climb, the Cauberg.

"After a first category climb in the final thirty kilometers, the riders will be confronted with a hill like the Cauberg in the final kilometer and a half.

http://www.velonation.com/News/ID/5...-significant-difficulties-at-2010-Vuelta.aspx

 

[hfer07]

I'm going to go for the following (in a successful breakaway)
Gerrans
Gasparotto
Di gregorio
Garate
Barredo
Kolobnev

If the stage is disputed in the final 20 km, then I'd go with the following
Gilbert
Joaquin Rodriguez
Roche

 

[Frosty]

whoever wins. They get a 20 second bonus, 8 over second and most of the teams are bunched together. dont know if htc will send someone into the break as the team with red jersey.

Could do. Otherwise its probably looking at Siutsou, Peter Velits, van Garderen to try and take the leader's jersey. Velits sounds the most likely for a sprint finish but if someone else is within twenty seconds then they could take it.

 

[Frosty]

if this stage is taken like it would be in the tdf, cav will win this. (remember hushovd leading in contador and schleck on the queen stage)

Um, if it was taken like the tdf then how could cav win bearing in mind he was about half an hour behind on that stage? Hushovd led in conty and schleck but no-one had tried to bring back the breakaway.

Breakaway for the win.

Possibly. HTC still have men capable of men getting to the finish with the main group and they may want a lesser light to get the jersey. Otherwise, who is going to want to put in the effort to chase it down? Lotto seem an obvious choice as they are within 20 seconds, apart from having a stage win chance. Be interesting to see who gives chase.

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

Cadel or Armstrong will win this easily.

 

[Ferminal]

Should be a good stage regardless, not quite sure who to pick yet.

 

[kukiniloa]

Why does each stage get a new thread?

It destroys any continuity in the discussion.

For example, it doesn't seem appropriate that I discuss the new sprint tactics we saw yesterday by Farrar. He went quite early, perhaps thinking that he has greater fitness than Cav. This may not have worked, but it didn't fail, since it changed the overall dynamics of the sprint. For once HTC and Cav didn't control the timing, since Cav starts his sprint when he wants to, generally. What are your thoughts on this?

As for tomorrow - short stage. I don't think we'll see any great separations, just a really exciting last 20k/finish with some late attacks. No idea who will win - any one of about 30 riders have a shot - but let's say Tyler Farrar for the win.

 

[royalpig180]

whoever wins. They get a 20 second bonus, 8 over second and most of the teams are bunched together. dont know if htc will send someone into the break as the team with red jersey.

I think that depends on whether or not they think Cav can make it over the climbs (I don't...)

If they have reached the same conclusion I have, they will send someone in the break, so that if it suceeds they will keep the red jersey.
If not, best of luck getting Cav over that climb...