Vuelta a España Vuelta a España 2025, Stage 18: Valladolid - Valladolid (12.2k)

[AmRacer]

Creating this thread so we can discuss today's stage. I'm sorry I cannot do write-ups.

Start times

First start : 14:12 Last arrival : 17:30

139	16:53:00	62	EGAN BERNAL	INEOS GRENADIERS
140	16:54:00	145	JAUME GUARDEÑO ROMA	CAJA RURAL-SEGUROS RGA
141	16:55:00	142	ABEL BALDERSTONE ROUMENS	CAJA RURAL-SEGUROS RGA
142	16:56:00	121	HAROLD TEJADA	XDS ASTANA TEAM
143	16:57:00	52	JUNIOR LECERF	SOUDAL QUICK-STEP
144	16:59:00	14	MATTEO JORGENSON	TEAM VISMA | LEASE A BIKE
145	17:01:00	108	TORSTEIN TRÆEN	BAHRAIN VICTORIOUS
146	17:03:00	16	SEPP KUSS	TEAM VISMA | LEASE A BIKE
147	17:05:00	228	MATTHEW RICCITELLO	ISRAEL - PREMIER TECH
148	17:07:00	91	FÉLIX GALL	DECATHLON AG2R LA MONDIALE TEAM
149	17:09:00	45	GIULIO PELLIZZARI	RED BULL - BORA - HANSGROHE
150	17:11:00	41	JAI HINDLEY	RED BULL - BORA - HANSGROHE
151	17:13:00	111	TOM PIDCOCK	Q36.5 PRO CYCLING TEAM
152	17:15:00	1	JOAO ALMEIDA	UAE TEAM EMIRATES XRG
153	17:17:00	11	JONAS VINGEGAARD	TEAM VISMA | LEASE A BIKE

 

[scribers]

I’d be surprised if this wasn’t a GC yawner

 

[RedheadDane]

So, it's shorter. We all know why, let's just leave it at that.

[This is where you imagine @Devil's Elbow amazing stage write-up]

Is he Ganna do it?

 

[AmRacer]

So, it's shorter. We all know why, let's just leave it at that.

[This is where you imagine @Devil's Elbow amazing stage write-up]

Is he Ganna do it?

I already created this thread

 

[RedheadDane]

I already created this thread

I was creating mine at the same time!

 

[AmRacer]

I was creating mine at the same time!

I posted mine first

 

[RedheadDane]

I posted mine first

I think we posted them at around the same time...

 

[RedheadDane]

@Armchair Cyclist or @Cookster15, can you merge the two threads... somehow?

 

[AmRacer]

@Armchair Cyclist or @Cookster15, can you merge the two threads... somehow?

Or delete one

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Barring a spectacular collapse, 12.2k of TT and a 3.3k garage ramp are not enough to lose 50 seconds. Vingegaard's odds of winning the GC are like 95% now.

 

[RedheadDane]

Or delete one

But which one?
This one has starttimes for the 15 last starters.
Mine has more detailed profiles, and a pun.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

12 kms instead of 27 kms? This race is turning into a farce! Don't count on Bola del Mundo either, the GC is set.

 

[AmRacer]

I think we posted them at around the same time...

Your's are to short.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

I posted mine first

Yours deals with hope, but it offers no reality....

 

[Faserr]

With two threads we might get 25k of time trialing.

 

[RedheadDane]

Your's are to short.

How is mine too short?
Yours barely have profiles. In fact, it has the wrong profile.

 

[RedheadDane]

I just want to point out that the profile in this thread is the old one.

 

[AmRacer]

I just want to point out that the profile in this thread is the old one.

So the Vuelta hasn't change it on their site. I was curious bcause the last time arrival wasn't aligned with the distance.

 

[tobydawq]

Barring a spectacular collapse, 12.2k of TT and a 3.3k garage ramp are not enough to lose 50 seconds. Vingegaard's odds of winning the GC are like 95% now.

I don't see why it would be impossible to attack earlier at Bola del Mundo if the GC situation requires it? I get that usually, you would wait for the final part, but surely a minute's gap can be made if you were to attack further down the mountain.

 

[movingtarget]

Shortened stage might kill Hindley's chances for third spot although not sure how he compares to
Pidcock re TT results.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

I don't see why it would be impossible to attack earlier at Bola del Mundo if the GC situation requires it? I get that usually, you would wait for the final part, but surely a minute's gap can be made if you were to attack further down the mountain.

Because barring that complete collapse, Vingegaard is not getting dropped on either ascent of Navacerrada.

 

[Red Rick]

Barring a spectacular collapse, 12.2k of TT and a 3.3k garage ramp are not enough to lose 50 seconds. Vingegaard's odds of winning the GC are like 95% now.

Contador lost 44s to Rodriguez on Bola del Mundo

 

[tobydawq]

Because barring that complete collapse, Vingegaard is not getting dropped on either ascent of Navacerrada.

Right, probably not. Especially given that Almeida's team is of no use.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Contador lost 44s to Rodriguez on Bola del Mundo

Contador had also been gapped/dropped uphill by Rodriguez on five previous occasions at that point. Vingegaard and Almeida are on a very different baseline, so Vingegaard losing 44 seconds would be a much bigger deviation from the previous 19 stages, i.e. much more of a collapse. Finally, Almeida is less suited to the climb than Rodriguez was, which means Vingegaard would likely need to do comparatively worse than Contador to lose the same amount of time.

 

[Red Rick]

Contador had also been gapped/dropped uphill by Rodriguez on five previous occasions at that point. Vingegaard and Almeida are on a very different baseline, so Vingegaard losing 44 seconds would be a much bigger deviation from the previous 19 stages, i.e. much more of a collapse. Finally, Almeida is less suited to the climb than Rodriguez was, which means Vingegaard would likely need to do comparatively worse than Contador to lose the same amount of time.

To me we're in relatively unknown territory with how both are performing right now, so if Almeida finds his legs again and Vingegaard just keeps gradually getting worse I can see 50s happening. Especially if Vingegaard ships 15-20s in the TT, and then blast the first parts of Bola del Mundo.

35s or thereabout is a pretty realistic gap from the 1st to the 4th best climber on the Bola. And Vingegaard was the 4th best climber on the Morredero yesterday.