Vuelta a Espana Stage 4: Baza - Sierra Nevada 170.2 km

[Anonymous]

Purito for the win.

 

[python]

i don't think the best finisher tomorrow among the main contenders will be as important to the final gc as the loser(s).

i expect aggressive riding from sastre and scarponi. we should also see if kash has got the goods.

 

[icefire]

i don't think the best finisher tomorrow among the main contenders will be as important to the final gc as the loser(s).

i expect aggressive riding from sastre and scarponi. we should also see if kash has got the goods.

Sastre will go forward if he has a chance to drop Cobo. Otherwise he will attack backwards.

 

[The Hitch]

JJ Cobo ftw.

 

[Duartista]

Sastre will go forward if he has a chance to drop Cobo. Otherwise he will attack backwards.

Am I right in thinking Sastre is rather unpopular in Spain? That's the impression I get from reading Spanish cycling forums.

 

[cineteq]

Anton and JRod need to start looking for time.

Originally Posted by LaFleur

He [Taaramae] said that Anton was left behind in the climb with a bout 1km to!! Got back in the descent.

Great info which combined with what I read on Galdeano's comments on Anton suggesting he's not as good in 2010. We're going to find out as soon as tomorrow on this very stage

 

[Swede1]

Brajkovic has been looking good. If he wants to top 5 he needs to do well here.
Anton and JRod need to start looking for time.

Brajkovic definitely looked good. I think he will finish with nibali in the top 3 tmrw. JRod looked pretty good as did wiggins. I'll go with JRod ftw and Brajkovic to be right up there in say 3rd.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

This climb is likely to be rather like Alpe di Siusi in the Giro 2009. some pretenders will be shelled, but for the most part the contenders will arrive together, then there will be some battling for the seconds in the last kilometre.

(In that very different 2009 stage btw, David Moncoutié was in the break all day, Caisse put J-Rod there so every other team blew themselves up chasing, Mosquera attacked the heads of state in the last few km, Gesink also tried, Valverde won the sprint for 3rd).

Oh, and also, they'll be ending in the Pradollano ski village. The Pradollano ski village is where Xavier Tondó's tragic accident took place, so I would not be surprised at all if there is some kind of tribute going on. The best possible outcome for me is a Beñat Intxausti victory. That would be so sweet in so many ways, and if it IS going to be a sprint or a last km fight from the contenders (also perhaps like Cunego's win on the Alto de Aitana in '09) he may be able to slip away at the last, if the pace isn't too ferociously high.

 

[Sylvester]

Mathias Frank to attack early on the climb and win.

Maybe GVA can show something too, and I reckon this kind of climb should suit Taylor Phinney as well, we saw in the Eneco Tour he can handle the big ones, so with those three we have our podium already. Santaromita will be a beast as usual to set up Tschopp for 4th and will be strong enough to end up in the top 5 as well. Kohler, Santambrogio, Kroon and Quinziato are also very likely to make the top 10. But if Gilbert would be riding, man, he'd slaughter them all!

On a more serious note: would Lastras be able to keep his leader's jersey? I actually don't really think so, but he's by no means a bad climber, so if nobody attacks until the last 5 km, he might have a chance.

 

[roundabout]

Lastras should be tired after today. It must be over 150km that he did in a break.

 

[Sylvester]

Voeckler went in a break too, you know

 

[Tank Engine]

JJ Cobo ftw.

I second that call. As it's the first mountain stage and the final climb is long (although they're not going all the way up) and not particularly steep, it will probably be a war of attrition. The steepest gradients seem to be at the beginning (not particularly steep) and from 3 to 2k out (which looks nasty). However, the last couple of k are pretty flat, which will help Nibali and Wiggins (if he's in form) limit (or eliminate) their losses against the pure climbers if necessary. Look for JRo, TGBM and JVdB to try and take some time.

 

[hfer07]

the only thing I know is that my man Fabio Duarte is going to start the fireworks tomorrow no matter what

 

[maltiv]

Chavanel will be in the leading jersey after this stage I think. He will be vuelta's Voeckler.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Kruijswijk with revenge after his bad luck today

 

[jens_attacks]

the only thing I know is that my man Fabio Duarte is going to start the fireworks tomorrow no matter what

don't want to sound pessimistic but i don't think he's 100% recovered

wiggins smelled the weak guys today,sky will hammer up to sierra nevada.the other guys looking good:jurgen,jani,michele,cobo and nibali.let's hope for fireworks!

 

[Geraint Too Fast]

I think LLS will try something here.

 

[Fergoose]

I agree with lots of the thoughts on Wiggins & Nibali above. I think Stage 4 might have been quite a subdued stage... until today. Sky were clearly trying to make stage 3 a little test, and although Lokvist & Froome struggled to set a pace for long (which must be a concern for Wiggins and Sky's plans) it helped contribute to Menchov being dropped later on (and almost Anton apparently?). So mission accomplished – you’ve drawn blood so have another bite.

Another attack at the foot of the last climb by Sky tomorrow has the chance to take Menchov completely out of the GC equation (he is only 2 minutes down on Nibali at present) and give Anton another test. I think the contenders really have to test Van den Broeck tomorrow too as, if fit, he has the potential to emerge as the class act of the field. You do not want to give him a free pass into the second week; an extra week of recovery and his confidence will go through the roof if he’s still in the picture.

For those who say that Wiggins doesn't do attacks on mountains stages, just watch. He had a couple of attacks in the 2009 TdF I recall - admittedly one of which sent him into the red and going backwards. Still he is no shrinking violet and must gain time on at least one stage outwith the Time Trial (as others said above). I fear he looks the type to wilt in the sun, "peely wally" as they say in my part of the world. So, if he does attack I don’t think it’ll shake his main rivals.

Stagewin
I think some non-GC contendor on a breakaway will probably be allowed to go and take the stage (the peloton seem really reluctant to chase anything down in the heat and I doubt Movistar hold out hope of Lastras clinging onto the lead). I'll go for Luis Leon Sanchez, (but he is probably slightly too good for the leaders to let run loose) - Scarponi will be the first of the GC candidates over the line.

Day off work. Cannot wait!

Stagewin prediction score: 0 out of 3
(was close today after stealing somebody else's wise Chavanel suggestion)

 

[Michielveedeebee]

I agree with lots of the thoughts on Wiggins & Nibali above. I think Stage 4 might have been quite a subdued stage... until today. Sky were clearly trying to make stage 3 a little test, and although Lokvist & Froome struggled to set a pace for long (which must be a concern for Wiggins and Sky's plans) it helped contribute to Menchov being dropped later on (and almost Anton apparently?). So mission accomplished – you’ve drawn blood so have another bite.

Another attack at the foot of the last climb by Sky tomorrow has the chance to take Menchov completely out of the GC equation (he is only 2 minutes down on Nibali at present) and give Anton another test. I think the contenders really have to test Van den Broeck tomorrow too as, if fit, he has the potential to emerge as the class act of the field. You do not want to give him a free pass into the second week; an extra week of recovery and his confidence will go through the roof if he’s still in the picture.

For those who say that Wiggins doesn't do attacks on mountains stages, just watch. He had a couple of attacks in the 2009 TdF I recall - admittedly one of which sent him into the red and going backwards. Still he is no shrinking violet and must gain time on at least one stage outwith the Time Trial (as others said above). I fear he looks the type to wilt in the sun, "peely wally" as they say in my part of the world. So, if he does attack I don’t think it’ll shake his main rivals.

Stagewin
I think some non-GC contendor on a breakaway will probably be allowed to go and take the stage (the peloton seem really reluctant to chase anything down in the heat and I doubt Movistar hold out hope of Lastras clinging onto the lead). I'll go for Luis Leon Sanchez, (but he is probably slightly too good for the leaders to let run loose) - Scarponi will be the first of the GC candidates over the line.

Day off work. Cannot wait!

Stagewin prediction score: 0 out of 3
(was close today after stealing somebody else's wise Chavanel suggestion)

Nice description

And that would be my suggestion

 

[maltiv]

I think Löfkvist and Froome will do a pretty good job tomorrow at keeping the pace in the start. Wiggins really needs someone to hold a steady pace so if none of the other teams do it Sky might have to. Normally Liquigas would but without Szmyd I'm not sure they can do it.

 

[The Hitch]

don't want to sound pessimistic but i don't think he's 100% recovered

Hopefully Duarte takes a page from the book of Contador.

It doesnt matter if you are 100% or not, what matters is that you attack.

 

[jsem94]

I think Capecchi did a pretty good job today up front in the final kms of the climb no?

 

[greatking88]

To be honest, I thought Wiggins didn't look that good towards the end of the climb today, I think the lack of racing in his legs will cost him big time tomorrow if the attacks start early. Hoping for a Dan Martin win. If not for sentimental reasons Beñat Intxausti..

 

[The Hitch]

(In that very different 2009 stage btw, David Moncoutié was in the break all day, Caisse put J-Rod there so every other team blew themselves up chasing, Mosquera attacked the heads of state in the last few km, Gesink also tried, Valverde won the sprint for 3rd).

So what you are saying is that Katusha should put Browne into the break?

 

[Michielveedeebee]

Jurgen VdB for the win imo, as pointed out earlier, he practically lives on these climbs.