Whatever happens now, Nibali is a tour great...

[dduff442]

It would be stupid to deny that Froome was a great champion in 2013. On the other hand, he did lose Tirreno Adriatico to Nibali that year even though few thought of Nibali as being Froome's equal. Certainly he would have been left floundering in Froome's wake had he ridden the Tour instead of the Giro.

But Nibali's look of utter remorselessness as he crossed the line in Arenberg is as important to the history of cycling as Froome's imperious 2013. What his face said at that moment is that no amount of marginal gains will ever get you to this point. It says you can't bottle this and store it in the Directeur Sportif's fridge. That all happened out on the road because we made it happen, reacting opportunistically to events in a creative way. Marginal gains is part of the history of cycling but Nibali's look as he crossed finish drew a line under the era forever. It says that no matter what the media think, all those other races like Tirreno aren't just Froome's warm up act. It also says that whether a rider can challenge for such titles on paper or not often doesn't matter. Froome is a great Tour champion, but he doesn't win stages like Sheffield or Arenberg because he can't.

 

[Inquitus]

but he doesn't win stages like Sheffield or Arenberg because he can't.

I would disagree, it is because he doesn't have to, unlike Nibali, on the other hand, who needs to eek every advantage on such stages to stand a chance overall. If Nibali wins the tour he will be a great, if Contador puts 5 minutes into him in the mountains as is possible, then Nibali will remain a Tour failure.

 

[SafeBet]

I would disagree, it is because he doesn't have to, unlike Nibali.

So assuming a perfectly healthy Froome you truly believe he would be capable of winning the Arenberg stage if he tried his best? Or even come in with the front group?

 

[LaFlorecita]

Wouldn't it be a bit early to call him a Tour great in the first Tour he could actually win? Let's wait and see if he can contend in another 2, then we can think about calling him one of the greats.

 

[Inquitus]

So assuming a perfectly healthy Froome you truly believe he would be capable of winning the Arenberg stage if he tried his best? Or even come in with the front group?

Winning a GT is about an all round performance, Froome doesn't have to win these stages, or even finish with the front group, he just has to limit his losses, Nibali however has no chance of winning this Tour unless he takes serious time on stages like the Arenberg. Just because Nibali rode a great stage, doesn't make him a Tour great, winning the tour because of that performance will make him a tour great. If he takes 3 minutes on Arenberg and ships 5 minutes in the mountains.....well....

 

[dduff442]

Wouldn't it be a bit early to call him a Tour great in the first Tour he could actually win? Let's wait and see if he can contend in another 2, then we can think about calling him one of the greats.

He's great because like Froome he's changed the sport.

 

[dduff442]

Winning a GT is about an all round performance, Froome doesn't have to win these stages, or even finish with the front group, he just has to limit his losses, Nibali however has no chance of winning this Tour unless he takes serious time on stages like the Arenberg. Just because Nibali rode a great stage, doesn't make him a Tour great, winning the tour because of that performance will make him a tour great. If he takes 3 minutes on Arenberg and ships 5 minutes in the mountains.....well....

But in the real world, Froome hit the pavement three times and retired from the race whereas Nibali survived Iglinsky's inadvertent attempt to take him out.

 

[Pricey_sky]

You contradict yourself slightly here, you say a Tour great but then go on about individual stages. The Tour is about who is best over 21 stages not 1 or 2. Nibali has to win the Tour to go down as a great. He has given himself a fantastic chance of that though with his excellent first week.

 

[Inquitus]

He's great because like Froome he's changed the sport.

How has he changed the sport? He wins the second tier GT's against weak opposition, if he wins this Tour because of that great ride on Arenberg, then that would lend credence to your assertion. If he loses this tour due in the mountains then it further demonstrates that on the biggest stage of all he just doesn't cut it.

 

[dduff442]

He wins the second tier GT's against weak opposition...

That's not what people said when Froome crushed Nibali at Romandie. And fair play to them...

But Tirreno 2013 wasn't weak opposition -- the opposition was Froome himself, and Nibali emerged the victor.

 

[dduff442]

How has he changed the sport? He wins the second tier GT's against weak opposition, if he wins this Tour because of that great ride on Arenberg, then that would lend credence to your assertion. If he loses this tour due in the mountains then it further demonstrates that on the biggest stage of all he just doesn't cut it.

To put it another way, marginal gains plus another 2'30" through craft and graft will always be better than marginal gains itself. The Brailsford strategy is no longer defensible.

 

[Inquitus]

That's not what people said when Froome crushed Nibali at Romandie. And fair play to them...

But Tirreno 2013 wasn't weak opposition -- the opposition was Froome himself, and Nibali emerged the victor.

Tirreno is not the tour, it is merely a warmup to the main event, history barely remembers who won Tirreno, Paris Nice or the Dauphine in any given year, only who won the Tour.

I like Nibali, but unless he builds on that great ride to Arenberg, and wins this tour, he is a long way from being a Tour great, or indeed a great.

 

[LaFlorecita]

How has he changed the sport? He wins the second tier GT's against weak opposition, if he wins this Tour because of that great ride on Arenberg, then that would lend credence to your assertion. If he loses this tour due in the mountains then it further demonstrates that on the biggest stage of all he just doesn't cut it.

I agree with this, also I think it depends on your definition of a "Tour great", for me the greats are Hinault, Merckx, Indurain, Lance etc. Can you see why for me Nibali doesn't cut it?

 

[sultanofhyd]

People are going overboard here. Nibali just had one great stage. We wouldn't be saying anything about him at all if Contador didn't have a bad day.

 

[Inquitus]

To put it another way, marginal gains plus another 2'30" through craft and graft will always be better than marginal gains itself. The Brailsford strategy is no longer defensible.

That's true, but Brailsford has the better specimen in Froome.

Nibali + "craft and graft" + Marginal gains is still unlikely to beat Froome + Marginal gains, unless Froome falls off his bike. Same applies to Contador as Froome

 

[Inquitus]

To put it another way, marginal gains plus another 2'30" through craft and graft will always be better than marginal gains itself. The Brailsford strategy is no longer defensible.

That's true, but Brailsford has the better specimen in Froome.

Nibali + "craft and graft" + Marginal gains is still unlikely to beat Froome + Marginal gains, unless Froome falls off his bike. Same applies to Contador as Froome imo, so we will get to see how this plays out in the coming weeks.

 

[dduff442]

People are going overboard here. Nibali just had one great stage. We wouldn't be saying anything about him at all if Contador didn't have a bad day.

How come Westra was up the road, then, where Contador had no one?

Things happen because riders make them happen. Nibbles made things happen into Arenberg.

 

[dduff442]

That's true, but Brailsford has the better specimen in Froome.

Nibali + "craft and graft" + Marginal gains is still unlikely to beat Froome + Marginal gains, unless Froome falls off his bike. Same applies to Contador as Froome imo, so we will get to see how this plays out in the coming weeks.

But suppose Brailsford's still coaching Froome next year while Astana are meanwhile bringing his clone Roomf?

Roomf has all of Froome's talents and is also going to be coached in how to mix it up and exercise responsibility on the road instead of following instructions drawn up months in advance. Also, Roomf's team are going to be all-action, looking to create breaks where pace and athleticism alone aren't enough to make them.

Let me tell you that Roomf will always, always crush Froome. And that's how Nibali changed cycling.

 

[Inquitus]

me tell you that Roomf will always, always crush Froome. And that's how Nibali changed cycling.

So the proof that Nibali has changed cycling is not available yet without a time machine?

 

[LaFlorecita]

are you saying Nibali changed cycling by going on a surprise attack? That is as old as cycling itself... That Froome didn't use that tactic doesn't mean it didn't exist in cycling.

 

[dduff442]

So the proof that Nibali has changed cycling is not available yet without a time machine?

The proof is that Nibali's in yellow and Froome's at home watching on TV.

 

[sultanofhyd]

How come Westra was up the road, then, where Contador had no one?

Things happen because riders make them happen. Nibbles made things happen into Arenberg.

Good for him. But this is not the Tour d'Arenberg. It was one stage.

 

[Pulpstar]

He's not a Tour great yet. Even if he wins this Tour he isn't a Tour great.

Anquetil; Merckx; Hinault; Indurain; Thys; Bobet; LeMond are Tour "Greats".

If Contador wins this edition he joins them in my eyes, for sure - there is an argument for putting him in there now but definitely if he wins this edition.

But as good as Nibali's ride was, he hasn't even won 1 Tour yet.

 

[dduff442]

He's not a Tour great yet. Even if he wins this Tour he isn't a Tour great.

Anquetil; Merckx; Hinault; Indurain; Thys; Bobet; LeMond are Tour "Greats".

If Contador wins this edition he joins them in my eyes, for sure - there is an argument for putting him in there now but definitely if he wins this edition.

But as good as Nibali's ride was, he hasn't even won 1 Tour yet.

Well that definition excludes Poulidor, Kelly, Cavendish...

 

[Carstenbf]

It would be stupid to deny that Froome was a great champion in 2013.

Stopped reading right there.