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When did the sport change to the last few kms

With regards to mountain stages in Grand Tours, when did the sport change whereby the gc contenders only attack in the last few km's of the stage. I remember the days of a 3 col day with a mtf, when gc contenders attacked each other on the 1st / 2nd col of the day to try to make up time.

A few years ago, I remember we expected some fireworks to go off in the Giro, and in the Vuelta only to be disappointed that it came down to the final 2 or so km's.

When did all of this change ? and why ? Anyone have any ideas why no one attacks earlier anymore ?
 
When one or two teams had a leader strong enough and a roster deep enough to control the race to the final climb and let the boss take over from there. USPS probably the best early example of it, but Banesto used to set Indurain up like that where possible too.

The 2011 Tour was the last time there wasn't a leading team with a squad strong enough and a leader dominant enough to control the race over multiple mountains. As a result we got heads of state (Contador, Schleck etc) attacking and staying away for a while on the 2nd and even 3rd last major climb of the day, safe in the knowledge that one team wouldn't unify to drive a train and catch them up.

A year later, Wiggins and Froome showed up with the Sky train and that's where we've been ever since. Even when Froome binned it in 2014, Astana we're so strong supporting Nibbles that it didn't really change anything.
 
There's a couple reasons why, and I think this is worthy of discussion. I'd definitely like others thoughts on this.

• Rider training is more focused, thus riders tend to be fitter for specific events, and team strategy more focused accordingly.

• Teams are thus stronger than ever, with elite teams often able to have not just a climbing domestique to assist the leader to or near the finish, but several riders able to do so.

• The above can lead to "trains" where teams, and their riders, are strong enough to ride well over 100km like a team time trial, over any terrain, strongly discouraging attacks. This protects the team leaders until the final few km.

• Technology has greatly improved. Riders are fitted with everything from watt meters, HRMs and more, that feed in real time back to the team car. This, coupled with race radios and team radios have neutralized or limited many attacks. Teams are able to almost always know where other riders on the road are to within a few seconds, and use computing power in laptops in cars continually crunching data to estimate just how long any given rider can sustain power output.

• Bikes are overall better, and slightly better maintained than in the past. That doesn't translate into massive gains in power, but it does add up, making a once brutal 200km mountain stage, now just tough. Especially with what's coupled above.

• The days of yonder where a true leader rode at the front as a badge of honor (Merckx, Hinault, etc.) and controlled the pace of the race - and often attacks - while the peloton rolled along at 30-35kph for an hour or so at the start of each stage is long ago forgotten as quaint nostalgia.

• To (hopefully) discourage doping, some GT's have made shorter stages, often in the mountains. While I support this notion, it also has limitations. Thus, races sometimes aren't as hard on the riders as they were years ago. Even if we go back to the late 90's, during a time rife with doping, you would see queen stages in GT's over 7 hours long. Those had the effect of completely fracturing the race, eliminating "trains" and dropping domestiques, often early. Think of it like what we usually see in the World's, or a race like Paris-Roubaix, but during a stage race. Only the elite survive.

• GT organizers, especially the Tour, covet the idea that the race will be close to the final mountain stage or final ITT. This insures, in their mind, people will pay attention to the end. But it often comes at a sacrifice in that we end up with a lot of dull stages over the first few weeks, even "epic" mountain stages, with the only real racing in the last few km.

• There's another notion that riders should be able to ride with near full gas through the third week of any GT, and have something in the tank if need be. In the past it was often accepted that as a GT went into the last mountain stages, riders would be exhausted, and go slower, and that was an okay thing.
 
Growing financial disparity between teams, allowing richer teams to pay more for a domestique than a smaller WT team can afford for a team leader. As a consequence, richer teams ability to control the races they really target increases even further. In current peloton Sky is the most obvious example, but they are not alone in doing this.
 
Team radios and watt meters have somewhat turned the riders into somewhat of a radio controlled unit with no real ability to improvise. But we still watching hoping it might somehow get better at some point. but it won't, it will only get worse. The organizers will just keep milking the money cow as it keeps bringing them money.

Unless they were to introduce some other factors into the race. Like shooting in the biathlon, something similar that would change the course of the race in an instant. Or maybe the disallow drafting for certain parts of the course like in triathlon. Something like that could make even the flattest stages exciting.
 
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gmedina said:
too many riders in a time. imagine a GT with 6 riders per team!
If the support riders were G, Kiwatkowski, Landa, Henao and Poels and there was no TTT does it matter than much? Its the concentration of the talent in my eyes that is the problem.
We should institute a draft like the american sports (which are surprisingly socialist in regard to sports). Therefore this year the team that finishes bottom of the world rankings gets to pick whoever is the best rider out of contract (Landa i assume), within a couple of years the GT's would have *** carnage.
 
On the no-drafting idea, how about splitting the road into 9 lanes for 1 (relatively straight) km every 40km or so. Your team can send 1 rider down each lane, and it's up to the teams to coordinate which rider goes down which. It'd be interesting to see the tactics of which rider then pulls and which rider sits on. It would also make cooperation in breaks interesting if one team has 2 riders; the others could work to distance the extra guy, or the stronger finisher of the teammates.

It's really something they'd have to trial in an event like the Hammer series or Eneco Tour to see if it'd work on a bigger scale/higher level.
 
Cowardly riders & DS + routes that create small gaps + cultural intertia

It didn't change at a single time, it's been gradual. The 2012 Giro sucked because nobody would attack until the last 3-2,5 km, but at the 2016 Tour and some Vueltas the usual distance would be 1,5-1 km. During Armstrong's reign and afterwards, they'd often wait for the last climb, but tackle it full gas from the bottom, first with domestiques giving their all (not merely riding tempo) then with attacks by the leaders with 14-10 km to go or what have you. During Indurain's reign you'd regularly see long-range attacks but racing was still more conservative than in the 80s.

Every now and then riders will do things the old school way and prove they can still do it, "superteams" be damned; they just don't wanna because they're too scared to lose their position as 29th in the GC and 3rd Liechtensteiner in the climbers classification.
 
Re: Re:

Singer01 said:
gmedina said:
too many riders in a time. imagine a GT with 6 riders per team!
If the support riders were G, Kiwatkowski, Landa, Henao and Poels and there was no TTT does it matter than much? Its the concentration of the talent in my eyes that is the problem.
We should institute a draft like the american sports (which are surprisingly socialist in regard to sports). Therefore this year the team that finishes bottom of the world rankings gets to pick whoever is the best rider out of contract (Landa i assume), within a couple of years the GT's would have **** carnage.

Not fair on the riders. They should have full authority over where they go and their contract.
 
Well, it's not entirely the draft in American sports that push parity. It has more to do with revenue sharing, luxury taxes, and salary caps. This would be more tricky in cycling, because you'd have to have sponsors go along with it. Teams in American sports are owned by rich individuals, and based in cities (or states), that then get sponsorship on the side. In cycling it's completely flipped. The sponsors are the teams. So, are you going to convince Sky for example to allow some of their sponsorship money to go to something other than the team? If not, then the sponsor would just invest less money, or pull up and spend their money elsewhere.

Also, with cycling, it's like everyone is a free agent each year, even if contracts are longer, they can usually be bought out or torn up. I'm not sure cyclists are going to want to sign longer, binding contracts. Put another way, a promising amateur could be "drafted" by Lampre, be stuck in 3 year contract for low pay. Or, if not restricted, they could sign with Lampre, have a good year, then go to Sky or Katusha for big money the next season, similar to now. Do you stop that by punishing the rider?

Budget can go beyond rider salary though. A bigger budgeted team can afford more skilled support staff, from trainers to soigners, to more esteemed mechanics, nutritionists, and deeper replacement supplies as well, like dedicated bike cleaning equipment. Even other things that might be viewed as creature comforts. More comfortable chairs on the team bus for example, staying at better hotels, etc. etc. Should that be "taxed"?

While I think limiting teams to 6-7 riders might help some, it wouldn't make a large dent. In the past the UCI also tried to compel pro teams to enter more races, so you didn't have riders focusing on one race (the Tour) with only a couple other races as training, then when the Tour was over, their season was over. That was easy to get around too.
 
Re: Re:

Singer01 said:
gmedina said:
too many riders in a time. imagine a GT with 6 riders per team!
If the support riders were G, Kiwatkowski, Landa, Henao and Poels and there was no TTT does it matter than much? Its the concentration of the talent in my eyes that is the problem.
We should institute a draft like the american sports (which are surprisingly socialist in regard to sports). Therefore this year the team that finishes bottom of the world rankings gets to pick whoever is the best rider out of contract (Landa i assume), within a couple of years the GT's would have **** carnage.

You'd have to fix the current, as-old-as-the-sport-itself model where a team only exists as long as they have a sponsor. No point letting Bahrain-Merida draft in Landa for 2018 if Bahrain aren't even going to be paying for a team in 2019.

And it's hard to create a real fanbase for a team when they never really play "home games." How do you create a "club" in cycling for someone to follow, like the Red Sox, or Real Madrid, or the All Blacks? I think these are some things that Velon are trying to address, but it's just never clear how they're planning to go about it.
 
Good discussion! Alpe's bullets are a good overview. I think that a lot changed in cycling when the riders could make a solid living wage and stars could make a really good living (obviously not compared to other sports, but compared to regular people).

That being said, I would love to see 30 KM, multi mountain battles between the big stars!
 
I am hesitant to say that it is only because of Sky, but there are some factors that would indicate that. The 2011 Tour was the last Tour before Sky took over and there was plenty of attacking from far out in that Tour. Also in the Giro where Sky are less prominent, attacks from further out occur more often.
 
It is a combination of several things already mentioned here: Focused training, race oriented, dedicated routes, clinic stuff.

Practically speaking when all these things combined each other the teams started forming trains in the mountains and then it became a last few kilometers action sport IMHO. So around the US Postal service years is when it became more evident.
 
There also the factor of more riders going faster up these mountains. If a group is going up a 7% grade 5km/hr faster in the 2017 Tour than they would have in 1987, then it stands to reason that more riders will benefit more from drafting, so more riders can hang onto that group. So the top riders have more doms around them for longer than they would have in the 80s, 70s. Also, everybody in the peloton can spin up a 10km Col in 36x28 or 39x32, where before their lowest option was maybe 42x22, which today sounds utterly inhuman to even ask someone to try for 200kms in the Pyrenees.
 
I remember an era of great solo breakaway performances by the likes of Richard Virenque, Jens Voigt, Niki Sorensen, Nicolas Jalabert, and maybe even Tyler Hamilton. And in the same era, certain riders would attack from 3-5 km (or even from the bottom) on the top mountain stages. Now, what is the one obvious thing from that era that is missing today? Or is that too simple-minded?
 
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Frihed89 said:
I remember an era of great solo breakaway performances by the likes of Richard Virenque, Jens Voigt, Niki Sorensen, Nicolas Jalabert, and maybe even Tyler Hamilton. And in the same era, certain riders would attack from 3-5 km (or even from the bottom) on the top mountain stages. Now, what is the one obvious thing from that era that is missing today? Or is that too simple-minded?
Yes, it's too simple-minded. Cycling in the early 00s was way more conservative than cycling in the mid 90s, where the impact of you-know-what was even greater, and absurdly more conservative than cycling in the 80s and before.
 
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kingjr said:
Didn't McEwen almost win the sprint for a Cat 1 climb on a mountain stage in '99, only to let Virenque pass just before the line?

If Kittel can win a stage into Pau then anything is possible :D

Some great posts in this thread. Too much drafting, yet not enough drafting....very good points.

Yeah, your club doesn't have a 'home' game though. And we tend not to support cycling teams anyway, but more individual riders imo.
 
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quote="Leinster"] where before their lowest option was maybe 42x22[/quote]
This part is incorrect. Mechanics would often assemble cranksets with the small plate at 38 teeths, for example. And any cheap roadbike would offer a standard 42X24. I have recently upgraded an original '86 Raleigh Technium, which came with 52-40 and 14-26.