Where Would Di Luca have Finished the Giro if he was Clean?

[BigBoat]

Doping effectiveness discussion/poll.

 

[red_explosions]

If he's lucky, bottom end of the top 50.

 

[mr.biggles]

This is an effective demonstration of why it's important to look at how polling questions are asked and not just at the "results".

 

[Nick C.]

This is an effective demonstration of why it's important to look at how polling questions are asked and not just at the "results".

Are you referring to the "doping makes no difference language?" That ruled out choice one for me even if I thought he might be in the top 10.

 

[mr.biggles]

Are you referring to the "doping makes no difference language?" That ruled out choice one for me even if I thought he might be in the top 10.

That was exactly what I was referring to. Also, not a lot of choices if you happened to think he'd do worse than he did but still have a good overall placing.

 

[psychlist]

I suppose DNF is an option if in addition to blood doping he uses substances that keep him free from injury while training.

 

[BigBoat]

That was exactly what I was referring to. Also, not a lot of choices if you happened to think he'd do worse than he did but still have a good overall placing.

I should have included 1-10, 10-20, 20-30, etc. If I could open it again I would. I just didnt want to have 10 different options.

 

[TheArbiter]

I wanted an option to say he would have won.

 

[BigBoat]

I wanted an option to say he would have won.

You get that in the 1-10 places option (doping makes no difference.)

 

[ThisFrenchGuy]

Is it even possible to say?
Is there any real model to calculate what is the average gain of PEDs?
Even if we had this, like "8% = CERA gain" (which is already a very simplistic way of saying it) and that we tried to apply it to his total time, would it make sense? There's many factors in a race. Even if Di Luca numerous attacks were made possible through doping, he could have stuck in the peloton at the back as a rider can do when feeling weak.

My understanding is that measuring the performance of an athlete precisely (VO2 etc...) necessits quite some material and expertise.
And while we may know what PEDs do, random-guessing their effects for an individual rider is... random. He did test positive for CERA, but what do we know about his program? How much did he took and when? What if he also took other products?

There could be answers to this, I am not an expert. But I feel only the riders themselves (and their doping doctor, if they have one in charge of their training and collecting data) have an idea of much they were enhanced.

 

[BigBoat]

Is it even possible to say?
Is there any real model to calculate what is the average gain of PEDs?
Even if we had this, like "8% = CERA gain" (which is already a very simplistic way of saying it) and that we tried to apply it to his total time, would it make sense? There's many factors in a race. Even if Di Luca numerous attacks were made possible through doping, he could have stuck in the peloton at the back as a rider can do when feeling weak.

My understanding is that measuring the performance of an athlete precisely (VO2 etc...) necessits quite some material and expertise.
And while we may know what PEDs do, random-guessing their effects for an individual rider is... random. He did test positive for CERA, but what do we know about his program? How much did he took and when? What if he also took other products?

There could be answers to this, I am not an expert. But I feel only the riders themselves (and their doping doctor, if they have one in charge of their training and collecting data) have an idea of much they were enhanced.

Hi Frenchguy! I like this type of discussion. Many riders using CERA were actually blood doping with their own blood (transfusions.) Dont know if you know that. They can raise their hematocrits to high 50s and hemodilute with regular saline.

Some guys only see a 12% sustainable power increase with blood doping. Some riders see as much as a 30% increase with blood doping. Not everybody "responds" the same way! But 12% more power would make all out 10 minute power become all out 50-60 minute power... A clean talented rider would be dropped within 15 minutes of a good steep climb. Over the course of a Grand Tour with 5,500 meters of climbing in single stages its doubtful most clean riders would finish inside the elimination. For example: in 1990 Greg Lemond won the Tour de France. In 1992 he DNF'd the Tour de France because he finished outside the elimination cut on the 259 km stage 13 to Sestriere. I believe this is because the pace was simply to high for him without EPO. But thats just my opinion. I picked 100 places-DNF. I think there are many riders blood doping still. Astorlaza was doing it just to try and win a stage. If a rider like him is doing it there must be like 50 guys doing it! Can you imagine 50 talented fit guys getting a 12%+ increase in power? The pace in the mountains would be crazy.

 

[red_explosions]

Hi Frenchguy! I like this type of discussion. Many riders using CERA were actually blood doping with their own blood (transfusions.) Dont know if you know that. They can raise their hematocrits to high 50s and hemodilute with regular saline.

Some guys only see a 12% sustainable power increase with blood doping. Some riders see as much as a 30% increase with blood doping. Not everybody "responds" the same way! But 12% more power would make all out 10 minute power become all out 50-60 minute power... A clean talented rider would be dropped within 15 minutes of a good steep climb. Over the course of a Grand Tour with 5,500 meters of climbing in single stages its doubtful most clean riders would finish inside the elimination. For example: in 1990 Greg Lemond won the Tour de France. In 1992 he DNF'd the Tour de France because he finished outside the elimination cut on the 259 km stage 13 to Sestriere. I believe this is because the pace was simply to high for him without EPO. But thats just my opinion. I picked 100 places-DNF. I think there are many riders blood doping still. Astorlaza was doing it just to try and win a stage. If a rider like him is doing it there must be like 50 guys doing it! Can you imagine 50 talented fit guys getting a 12%+ increase in power? The pace in the mountains would be crazy.

Good post BB.

I think there are so many variables it makes it difficult to say where a clean DiLuca would end up. You have to know how much dope he was shooting, how well does he respond, what's his crit during the stage, is he just topping up to 48-49% or going all out to 60%, what are the other riders values compared with his. If all the top 50 are boosted to 60% during the stage then a clean DiLuca would be absolutely nowhere. If it's only those at the business end of the race trying to get a slight advantage then he might have been able to hang around in the top 50 somewhere.

 

[luckyboy]

Wonder where Menchov would've come had he been clean

51st?

 

[mistahsinclair]

Wonder where Menchov would've come had he been clean

51st?

Does that mean that the new top 50 would all be clean?

 

[BigBoat]

Wonder where Menchov would've come had he been clean

51st?

I thought that was interesting.