Which Martin Will Finish Higher in the TDF GC?

[Gubby Allen]

1) Dan
2) Tony

Only reason I ask is that I've bought a few of the guides, magazines etc - every one list Tony among the main contenders.

These two are close to being the one deemed a contender, I think is most likely to finish outside the top ten up against the rider more than any other, not being mentioned who could sneak into the Top 10.

It helped they shared the same name.

 

[Froome19]

1) Dan
2) Tony

Only reason I ask is that I've bought a few of the guides, magazines etc - every one list Tony among the main contenders.

These two are close to being the one deemed a contender, I think is most likely to finish outside the top ten up against the rider more than any other, not being mentioned who could sneak into the Top 10.

It helped they shared the same name.

Dan by a mile if he has recovered from the injury he picked up today.

Tony cant climb so I expect him to finish around where he finished last year, as the extra TT miles wont make that much a difference when you are 1 hour 30 down maybe he can gain an extra 7 min on his rivals and leap to 39th.

 

[will10]

Neither are GC riders IMO.

 

[Gubby Allen]

Tony Martin - 11th favourite and 40/1.

Dan Martin - 46th in the odds at 500/1.

That should make him about 14/1 for a Top 10 spot which looks good value. Surprised to see him beneath Cancellara & Boassen Hagen in the odds to win.

 

[DominicDecoco]

Dan by a mile if he has recovered from the injury he picked up today.

Tony cant climb

He has done it before. Who knows. He's probably still in poor condition after the crash but you never know.

 

[taiwan]

Yeah Tony struggles on the climbs, and Dan must be near the top of Garmin's list of who's going to get a top ten in the Tour, at this point.

 

[Gubby Allen]

I know tradition counts for little, but three times in very recent years Garmin have had a rider from nowhere end in the Top 10.

 

[will10]

I know tradition counts for little, but three times in very recent years Garmin have had a rider from nowhere end in the Top 10.

Four.

Vandevelde - Wiggins - Hesjedal - Danielson.

Talansky this year.

 

[jens_attacks]

Four.

Vandevelde - Wiggins - Hesjedal - Danielson.

Talansky this year.

let's see turbo diesel in suisse first

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

let's see turbo diesel in suisse first

I'm so anxious to know. He's improving all the time

 

[Caruut]

I heard that Dan Martin might be going for the KoM this year.

 

[Galic Ho]

I heard that Dan Martin might be going for the KoM this year.

He can hold his cousins hand and they can both have a crack at it. They'd have a fair chance of pulling it off if they worked together.

 

[will10]

He can hold his cousins hand and they can both have a crack at it. They'd have a fair chance of pulling it off if they worked together.

Cousin Nicolas will be far too busy riding for 16th on GC to go for the polka-dots.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

This should be the best parcours in recent history for a Tony Martin, but he's still likely to lose a lot of time on the climbs. Presumably Leipheimer will be OPQS' main GC man.

By contrast, it should be the worst parcours in recent history for a Dan Martin and he's likely to lose a lot of time in the TTs. I know that Garmin were saying that he's improved his TTing, but even if that's the case it would still be a matter of limiting losses. In any case, I don't think he'll be riding for GC.

If both were riding entirely for GC, I'd say Dan would beat Tony by a significant margin, despite losing minutes and minutes to him in the TTs. As it's likely that at least one of them won't be riding for GC, it's really impossible to tell. If, for instance, Dan is targeting stage wins and/or the polkadot jersey, he'd be best off losing a whole bunch of time so that he can get in breaks or be allowed away on the final climb. Dan Martin has it in him to be a GC rider, but not on this parcours.

 

[Ruudz0r]

I voted for Martin

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I voted for Martin

QFT

haha priceless

 

[The Hitch]

Martin Velits.

 

[maxmartin]

it won't be Dan, most likely Danielson or CVV, just too many ITT miles for Dan, he can easily lose ten mins in those two ITT

I know tradition counts for little, but three times in very recent years Garmin have had a rider from nowhere end in the Top 10.

 

[search]

Tony Martin - 11th favourite and 40/1.

Dan Martin - 46th in the odds at 500/1.

That should make him about 14/1 for a Top 10 spot which looks good value. Surprised to see him beneath Cancellara & Boassen Hagen in the odds to win.

there is not always a stiff connection between a win and a top 10 finish I think.

many riders are solid in every aspect and can do a top 10 (like Peraud last year or Astarloza and Kirchen a couple of years ago) but they will never win the tour. Same for Dan Martin, he is such a crappy timetrialist that it'll be unpossible for him to win a modern days Tour de France - but he may well do a Top 10 result one day.

Tony Martin for instance may well win the tour if he learns to climb, so there may be value in him winning the tour (or do a Top 3) while there might be no value in a Top 10 finish even at (in comparison) higher odds as either - if he does a Wiggins-like transformation into a climber - he can win the tour or - if he doesn't - will end up 40th again

 

[maxmartin]

that sounds plausible for him

I heard that Dan Martin might be going for the KoM this year.

 

[MizzouJack]

Dan will lose time early so he can go in breakaways and go after the KOM, Tony will finish around 25th and Dan between 30 and 40th

 

[happytramp]

Dan will lose time early so he can go in breakaways and go after the KOM, Tony will finish around 25th and Dan between 30 and 40th

I voted Dan but this is probably more realistic. He has no GC aspirations due to the parcours and has said as much in interviews. He'll target stage wins and KOtM points. He's well capable of both (depending on his recovery from today's accident) and given he's one of the best non-GC climbers riding i'd say he's got a fair chance of KOtM.

 

[therhodeo]

I look for both to lose huge chunks of time. Tony will be working for Levi and Velits and shooting for the 3 TT's and Dan will be targeting KOM points. None of those objectives rely on counting seconds towards the GC.

 

[SHAD0W93]

It would be better for both if they concentrated on TT wins for Tony and a stage and KOM for Dan. It is like asking who will get the higher finish between Greipel and Cav. But to the question at hand. Tony with 14' over Dan.

 

[greenedge]

I think both will only win stages. One will win at last one ITT and could conceivably win all 3. Dan could win a mountain stage if he attacks ( like Vanendert ) and will feature on a few hilly stages.

Overall i think each would have to work for team leaders like Levi and CVV/ Danielson/ Talansky. Of the 2 i think Dan would have a better chance to finish higher in the GC than Tony but it depends on a few factors.