Tour de France Who is going to win the green jersey in the Tour 2025?

[KZD]

Yellow jersey is a two horse battle at this point.

However I am curious for the green jersey, Van Aert, Philipsen and Girmay won in the last three years and all of them will be at the start line.

Then we have the pure sprinters, Merlier and Milan, however this year there will only be 5-6 pure sprint stages so not many chances for them.

Finally we have two starts of this sport, Pogacar and Van der Poel who will likely not target this jersey but just due to their sheer talent shouldn't be underestimated either.

 

[hayneplane]

This is probably the hardest competition to call this year due to the route and other factors such as 2 contenders for Alpecin, sprint stages could split 3 or more ways hurting the chances of a bunch sprinter winning it, Pogacar won’t use extra energy for the intermediate sprints, Wout on team duty more than own chances.

 

[Tonton]

Teddy Merckx will get this...and more.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Pogacar can't win this jersey. Intermediate sprints give a lot of points.

 

[houtdffan]

Remco

too many hilly stages give full 50 points at the finish

 

[scribers]

I’m going with philipsen realizes he isn’t winning sprints and shifts focus to green jersey. A dynamic of him and mvp gobbling sprint points from breaks seems compelling

 

[scribers]

Girmay is intriguing though. Van aert is busy shielding Vingo. Milan and merlier ain’t making it over the mountains

 

[gunara]

too many hilly stages give full 50 points at the finish

so why Remco and not someone better at these?

 

[houtdffan]

so why Remco and not someone better at these?

think we forget how good Remco historically has been at that type of race

 

[Peyroteo94]

think we forget how good Remco historically has been at that type of race

Unfortunately for him, there is one guy with a better record than him in this type of race.

 

[SHAD0W93]

If the races goes how I think it will, Pogacar will win. I think he’ll win 4-5 stages and the sprint stages will be split across too many people for one of them to overcome the deficit. If Pogacar doesn’t win, I think Milan will take it.

 

[scribers]

Bold call on pogi. I like it

 

[Gigs_98]

Tbh it's probably just gonna be the most succesful sprinter but I think Pogacar and MvdP have a chance (though I have to admit, I never actually did the math for this).
But especially for MvdP I can see a scenario where the first week goes really well for him so he then starts to go into breaks to win intermediate sprints. Since there arent that many pure sprint stages I think that's a realistic option.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Tbh it's probably just gonna be the most succesful sprinter but I think Pogacar and MvdP have a chance (though I have to admit, I never actually did the math for this).
But especially for MvdP I can see a scenario where the first week goes really well for him so he then starts to go into breaks to win intermediate sprints. Since there arent that many pure sprint stages I think that's a realistic option.

MVP can take part in some breakaways and win stage(s) as a result (maybe he won't be chased down every time).

 

[Berniece]

MVP can take part in some breakaways and win stage(s) as a result (maybe he won't be chased down every time).

Only if he actually wants to win it, and we'll notice that in the first stage. Will he do the leadout for Philipsen, and keep sprinting as the last man. If not, I doubt he'll go for it.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Only if he actually wants to win it, and we'll notice that in the first stage. Will he do the leadout for Philipsen, and keep sprinting as the last man. If not, I doubt he'll go for it.

My remark about MVP was general, not necessarily about the green jersey i.e. he may win some stages in the first week from breakaways (he should be allowed but on some stages UAE maybe will chase hard).

 

[Berniece]

My remark about MVP was general, not necessarily about the green jersey i.e. he may win some stages in the first week from breakaways (he should be allowed but on some stages UAE maybe will chase hard).

Oh like that. In the first week I can only see him going in a breakaway during stage 6. All other stages that aren't flat he should be able to win from the peloton.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Oh like that. In the first week I can only see him going in a breakaway during stage 6. All other stages that aren't flat he should be able to win from the peloton.

He has multiple winning options. He can compete from the peleton or from a breakaway. I'm not sure what's better, Pogacar will be a big rival from the peleton. From a breakaway he will be a huge favourite but can be chased down OTOH.

 

[Keldergoat]

It is indeed quite an interesting one this year, due to several factors.

- On paper Alpecin has the best cards with Philipsen but they have two contenders and if their main goal is gobbling stages with both that will jeopardize Green Jersey chances
- Milan and Merlier are by far the fastest but only 4 stages are typical mass sprint stages
- Girmay doesn't have the greatest of seasons yet but I don't rule out the option of him being very good at the Tour.
- WvA could be a dark horse if he gets the freedom to gobble up points in breakaways etc, however I doubt he will get it and does he still have the recklessness to dive into every mass sprint. And let's face it, his sheer speed is not at the same level as in 2020-2022 anymore.

I wouldn't write off Girmay, since he normally climbs a tad better than M2 and got his full team in support. Also, I have the feeling that MvdP might want to make a goal out of it given his riding in Dauphine.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

if MVDP wants to go for it in his career he should do it this year. He'll never get this chance again. But I'm afraid he'll lose too many points working for Philipsen in the 4/5 sprint stages.

 

[Peyroteo94]

For me Pogacar won't win because he will not care about this jersey. If he cared, he would win though.

 

[Berniece]

For me Pogacar won't win because he will not care about this jersey. If he cared, he would win though.

He cares about winning stages and maybe that will be enough. Depending on how many stages he is actually able to win. There are at least 10 stages he could go for the win, but no way that UAE would be that selfish to go for all of them.

 

[Peyroteo94]

He cares about winning stages and maybe that will be enough. Depending on how many stages he is actually able to win. There are at least 10 stages he could go for the win, but no way that UAE would be that selfish to go for all of them.

Selfish???
He can win a lot of stages but most of them only give 20 points. Intermediate sprints give 20 points and sprinters will try to gain as many points as possible while Pogacar will not bother about intermediate sprints.
He also needs to go all out in stages like 2, 4, etc and I think this will not happen.

 

[Berniece]

Selfish???
He can win a lot of stages but most of them only give 20 points. Intermediate sprints give 20 points and sprinters will try to gain as many points as possible while Pogacar will not bother about intermediate sprints.
He also needs to go all out in stages like 2, 4, etc and I think this will not happen.

Selfish is maybe not the right word. It's basically gluttony, but I can't remember a better word to describe it in this situation. It would come down to other teams really not appreciating it if Pogacar would actually win 10 stages, and UAE would reel back every attack so he can go for a stage win.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

For me Pogacar won't win because he will not care about this jersey. If he cared, he would win though.

UAE have absolutely raced with the polkadots in the back of their mind in the past, if they do the same here for green then Pogacar wins it handily. Think he will get about as much out of the hilly stages as the best sprinter will out of the five sprints and it's pretty hard to compensate for his inevitable litany of mountain stage points with just intermediate sprints.