Tour de France Who is going to win the green jersey in the Tour 2025?

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Who is going to win the green jersey in the Tour 2025?

  • Girmay

    Votes: 1 1.5%

  • Philipsen

    Votes: 13 20.0%

  • Van Aert

    Votes: 7 10.8%

  • Merlier

    Votes: 9 13.8%

  • Milan

    Votes: 7 10.8%

  • Pogacar

    Votes: 19 29.2%

  • Van der Poel

    Votes: 8 12.3%

  • Other

    Votes: 1 1.5%
  • Total voters
    65
Peyroteo94

Peyroteo94

Mar 20, 2022
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Devil's Elbow said:
UAE have absolutely raced with the polkadots in the back of their mind in the past, if they do the same here for green then Pogacar wins it handily. Think he will get about as much out of the hilly stages as the best sprinter will out of the five sprints and it's pretty hard to compensate for his inevitable litany of mountain stage points with just intermediate sprints.
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For example last year they didn't care about the polkadots jersey. If they cared, they would not let Carapaz be first in Bonnette.
 
Peyroteo94

Peyroteo94

Mar 20, 2022
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Berniece said:
Selfish is maybe not the right word. It's basically gluttony, but I can't remember a better word to describe it in this situation. It would come down to other teams really not appreciating it if Pogacar would actually win 10 stages, and UAE would reel back every attack so he can go for a stage win.
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I already had this conversation in the forum. Why are sprinters allowed to fight and win every sprint stage but climbers are not?
 
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Berniece

Berniece

Sep 12, 2022
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Peyroteo94 said:
I already had this conversation in the forum. Why are sprinters allowed to fight and win every sprint stage but climbers are not?
Click to expand...
Every sprinter is able to win a sprint stage.
Every climber is able to win a mountainous stage.

BUT not every climber is able to win the GC which is much more money and prestige than a single stage. If you are a rider that is able to win the GC and you are also going for every stage, you are taking away everything from climbers that aren't GC material.
 
Peyroteo94

Peyroteo94

Mar 20, 2022
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Berniece said:
Every sprinter is able to win a sprint stage.
Every climber is able to win a mountainous stage.

BUT not every climber is able to win the GC which is much more money and prestige than a single stage. If you are a rider that is able to win the GC and you are also going for every stage, you are taking away everything from climbers that aren't GC material.
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Maybe they are not real climbers. In modern cycling, world class climbers are GC contenders. This is not the era of Merckx where world class climbers were getting cooked in the valleys by powerhorses like Merckx.
 
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H

hayneplane

Sep 4, 2017
3,244
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Gigs_98 said:
Tbh it's probably just gonna be the most succesful sprinter but I think Pogacar and MvdP have a chance (though I have to admit, I never actually did the math for this).
But especially for MvdP I can see a scenario where the first week goes really well for him so he then starts to go into breaks to win intermediate sprints. Since there arent that many pure sprint stages I think that's a realistic option.
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I think he would have to do the leadouts and then carry on sprinting as hard as possible to then pick up top ten stage points in the mass finishes to get enough points overall.
 
QueenStagiaire

QueenStagiaire

Jun 30, 2022
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Devil's Elbow said:
Stages 2, 4, 7, 11 and 21 all hand out maximum points. IMO Pogacar is the favourite for three of those.
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MdB already handed out maximum points in 2021, even San Luca gave maximum points last year. I think the points change happened some time ago already, not this year. So if they tried to skew this in favour of Pogačar, they did it a few years ago, when it was mostly helping Van Aert.
Edit: also 50 for Jaizkibel in ’23
 
Devil's Elbow

Devil's Elbow

Sep 20, 2017
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QueenStagiaire said:
MdB already handed out maximum points in 2021, even San Luca gave maximum points last year. I think the points change happened some time ago already, not this year. So if they tried to skew this in favour of Pogačar, they did it a few years ago, when it was mostly helping Van Aert.
Edit: also 50 for Jaizkibel in ’23
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But in previous years, there were more sprint stages, as well as far fewer hilly stages where they had the option of handing out full points in the first place. One hilly stage handing out 50 instead of 30 points barely moves the needle, four of them in combination with there being fewer sprint stages moves the needle a lot.
 
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Gigs_98

Gigs_98

Feb 18, 2015
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Tbh, completely ignoring whether I like that Pogacar could get another jersey for free, I really think hilly stages giving max points is a good thing. Imo the green jersey should never just be a pure "fastest sprinter" competition since that adds nothing to the race. The top sprinters try to win sprint stages anyway. Your ability to get over hills, go to breaks for intermediate sprints, etc. is what makes this competition interesting so imo it's a good thing that hilly stages genuinely matter. I like the idea of Pogacar, MvdP and Milan all battling for the same conpetition.
 
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B

Brullnux

Mar 31, 2015
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I think Pogacar will only go for the green jersey if yellow is in the bag at an early point. I agree with others that intermediate sprints will matter a lot and to fight for them is a huge waste of energy unless Pogacar is three minutes up by the second weekend.
 
Berniece

Berniece

Sep 12, 2022
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Brullnux said:
I think Pogacar will only go for the green jersey if yellow is in the bag at an early point. I agree with others that intermediate sprints will matter a lot and to fight for them is a huge waste of energy unless Pogacar is three minutes up by the second weekend.
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What is an early point? Because I don't see him in yellow until stage 12
 
KZD

KZD

Feb 21, 2019
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Peyroteo94 said:
Pogacar can't win this jersey. Intermediate sprints give a lot of points.
Click to expand...

I have checked the intermediate sprints and they are almost all placed on flat roads or on the beginning of the stages, including on the mountain ones, meaning that the sprinters shouldn't have too much trouble grabbing lots of points on those. If anything, this looks like a great opportunity for Van der Poel to fight for the green jersey for once in his career, but with Philipsen being there, I think the latter is more likely to win it.

For Pogacar to win the green jersey, I think three conditions will need to be fulfilled:
- Lack of a dominant sprinter during the race
- Winning at least 5-6 stages
- Winning at least one 50 point stage

Its going to be difficult but not impossible given its Pogacar we are talking about.
 
Last edited:
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J

jmdirt

Dec 6, 2013
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Berniece said:
Selfish is maybe not the right word. It's basically gluttony, but I can't remember a better word to describe it in this situation. It would come down to other teams really not appreciating it if Pogacar would actually win 10 stages, and UAE would reel back every attack so he can go for a stage win.
Click to expand...
Maybe greedy?

Friends don't let friends be stage hogs?

EDIT: I'm fine with TP winning 10 stages.
 
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