Tour de France Who is going to win the green jersey in the Tour 2025?

[Peyroteo94]

UAE have absolutely raced with the polkadots in the back of their mind in the past, if they do the same here for green then Pogacar wins it handily. Think he will get about as much out of the hilly stages as the best sprinter will out of the five sprints and it's pretty hard to compensate for his inevitable litany of mountain stage points with just intermediate sprints.

For example last year they didn't care about the polkadots jersey. If they cared, they would not let Carapaz be first in Bonnette.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Selfish is maybe not the right word. It's basically gluttony, but I can't remember a better word to describe it in this situation. It would come down to other teams really not appreciating it if Pogacar would actually win 10 stages, and UAE would reel back every attack so he can go for a stage win.

I already had this conversation in the forum. Why are sprinters allowed to fight and win every sprint stage but climbers are not?

 

[Berniece]

I already had this conversation in the forum. Why are sprinters allowed to fight and win every sprint stage but climbers are not?

Every sprinter is able to win a sprint stage.
Every climber is able to win a mountainous stage.

BUT not every climber is able to win the GC which is much more money and prestige than a single stage. If you are a rider that is able to win the GC and you are also going for every stage, you are taking away everything from climbers that aren't GC material.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

For example last year they didn't care about the polkadots jersey. If they cared, they would not let Carapaz be first in Bonnette.

But the green jersey should matter more to Pogacar because he hasn't won it yet, unlike with the polkadots last year which he had already won on multiple occasions.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Every sprinter is able to win a sprint stage.
Every climber is able to win a mountainous stage.

BUT not every climber is able to win the GC which is much more money and prestige than a single stage. If you are a rider that is able to win the GC and you are also going for every stage, you are taking away everything from climbers that aren't GC material.

Maybe they are not real climbers. In modern cycling, world class climbers are GC contenders. This is not the era of Merckx where world class climbers were getting cooked in the valleys by powerhorses like Merckx.

 

[Red Rick]

Tour really needed more jerseys for Pogacar to farm uncontestedly.

 

[Berniece]

Maybe they are not real climbers. In modern cycling, world class climbers are GC contenders.

You don't have to go for every stage that you have a chance of winning. You can, and if UAE wants to do it, go for it. But don't complain if the public and the riders will get fed up with it, and try to *** you over if they have a chance.

 

[hayneplane]

Tbh it's probably just gonna be the most succesful sprinter but I think Pogacar and MvdP have a chance (though I have to admit, I never actually did the math for this).
But especially for MvdP I can see a scenario where the first week goes really well for him so he then starts to go into breaks to win intermediate sprints. Since there arent that many pure sprint stages I think that's a realistic option.

I think he would have to do the leadouts and then carry on sprinting as hard as possible to then pick up top ten stage points in the mass finishes to get enough points overall.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Tour really needed more jerseys for Pogacar to farm uncontestedly.

Those damn hilly stages, make them flat! Or reduce the points for any stage that contains hills!!!

 

[Red Rick]

Those damn hilly stages, make them flat! Or reduce the points for any stage that contains hills!!!

They made a points change that only benefits Pogacar....

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Would be nice to see Kadence going for it, but Alpecin's construction is is just too cannibalistic.
Askey could do well, but will likely fade as the show progress.
Going with Melier.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

They made a points change that only benefits Pogacar....

Really? Which Stage Type gives more points? Only Ventoux giving 30 (wtf) or something that‘s more than 10 points difference?

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Really? Which Stage Type gives more points? Only Ventoux giving 30 (wtf) or something that‘s more than 10 points difference?

Stages 2, 4, 7, 11 and 21 all hand out maximum points. IMO Pogacar is the favourite for three of those.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Stages 2, 4, 7, 11 and 21 all hand out maximum points. IMO Pogacar is the favourite for three of those.

MdB already handed out maximum points in 2021, even San Luca gave maximum points last year. I think the points change happened some time ago already, not this year. So if they tried to skew this in favour of Pogačar, they did it a few years ago, when it was mostly helping Van Aert.
Edit: also 50 for Jaizkibel in ’23

 

[Devil's Elbow]

MdB already handed out maximum points in 2021, even San Luca gave maximum points last year. I think the points change happened some time ago already, not this year. So if they tried to skew this in favour of Pogačar, they did it a few years ago, when it was mostly helping Van Aert.
Edit: also 50 for Jaizkibel in ’23

But in previous years, there were more sprint stages, as well as far fewer hilly stages where they had the option of handing out full points in the first place. One hilly stage handing out 50 instead of 30 points barely moves the needle, four of them in combination with there being fewer sprint stages moves the needle a lot.

 

[Gigs_98]

Tbh, completely ignoring whether I like that Pogacar could get another jersey for free, I really think hilly stages giving max points is a good thing. Imo the green jersey should never just be a pure "fastest sprinter" competition since that adds nothing to the race. The top sprinters try to win sprint stages anyway. Your ability to get over hills, go to breaks for intermediate sprints, etc. is what makes this competition interesting so imo it's a good thing that hilly stages genuinely matter. I like the idea of Pogacar, MvdP and Milan all battling for the same conpetition.

 

[Brullnux]

I think Pogacar will only go for the green jersey if yellow is in the bag at an early point. I agree with others that intermediate sprints will matter a lot and to fight for them is a huge waste of energy unless Pogacar is three minutes up by the second weekend.

 

[Berniece]

I think Pogacar will only go for the green jersey if yellow is in the bag at an early point. I agree with others that intermediate sprints will matter a lot and to fight for them is a huge waste of energy unless Pogacar is three minutes up by the second weekend.

What is an early point? Because I don't see him in yellow until stage 12

 

[SHAD0W93]

What is an early point? Because I don't see him in yellow until stage 12

Pogacar could be in yellow by a couple seconds by stage 2 or 4 then Evenepoel most likely gets it on stage 5.

 

[Peyroteo94]

What is an early point? Because I don't see him in yellow until stage 12

If he wants, he can be in yellow after stage 4 (rain is expected). There is also stage 10 where he can gain 40 seconds on Remco if he wants.

 

[Berniece]

If he wants, he can be in yellow after stage 4 (rain is expected). There is also stage 10 where he can gain 40 seconds on Remco if he wants.

And boni’s he earns throughout those stages.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Yellow jersey is a two horse battle at this point.

If it's a horse race there can only be one winner

 

[KZD]

Pogacar can't win this jersey. Intermediate sprints give a lot of points.

I have checked the intermediate sprints and they are almost all placed on flat roads or on the beginning of the stages, including on the mountain ones, meaning that the sprinters shouldn't have too much trouble grabbing lots of points on those. If anything, this looks like a great opportunity for Van der Poel to fight for the green jersey for once in his career, but with Philipsen being there, I think the latter is more likely to win it.

For Pogacar to win the green jersey, I think three conditions will need to be fulfilled:
- Lack of a dominant sprinter during the race
- Winning at least 5-6 stages
- Winning at least one 50 point stage

Its going to be difficult but not impossible given its Pogacar we are talking about.

 

[jmdirt]

Selfish is maybe not the right word. It's basically gluttony, but I can't remember a better word to describe it in this situation. It would come down to other teams really not appreciating it if Pogacar would actually win 10 stages, and UAE would reel back every attack so he can go for a stage win.

Maybe greedy?

Friends don't let friends be stage hogs?

EDIT: I'm fine with TP winning 10 stages.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Van der Poel not going for green, Merlier not going for green. I guess they did the same math the plurality of voters in this poll did.