Who is the better Classics cyclist between Tadej Pogačar and Mathieu van der Poel?

[Izzyeviel]

Kopecky.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Thank god you gave us the option to pick multiple riders from the large pool of 3 riders. That way i was able to pick all three.

First time I did it. It will be better next time.

 

[snipeheem]

Why isn't it close?

When Mvdp get podium on Lombardia then it will be close

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Pogacar is the current winner of 3 monuments ( top3 in all of them), WC and other important races like Strade, Fleche, Montreal and Emillia. I dont remember anyone with such classics stats in recent three decades.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Well its pretty damn obvious

1. Pog
2. MVDP
3. Remco

Pogacar can play ball at MVDP's races, while MVDP cannot at Pog's best races. Remco is a distant 3rd for now.

 

[tobydawq]

When Mvdp get podium on Lombardia then it will be close

okay

To add: there are two monuments Pogi can't win because of Van der Poel and two where Van der Poel can't win, and one where they both have a chance.

It seems pretty close to me, even if I would also give the nod to Pog.

 

[Brullnux]

okay

To add: there are two monuments Pogi can't win because of Van der Poel and two where Van der Poel can't win, and one where they both have a chance.

It seems pretty close to me, even if I would also give the nod to Pog.

No but the obvious difference is that Pogacar can't win it because of Van der Poel, but Van der Poel can't win Lombardia even if Pogacar wasn't there. I doubt he'd be able to win Liege, frankly – I think the race dynamics with Pog/Remco suit him getting spring podiums there (see: Velasco).

 

[Peyroteo94]

okay

To add: there are two monuments Pogi can't win because of Van der Poel and two where Van der Poel can't win, and one where they both have a chance.

It seems pretty close to me, even if I would also give the nod to Pog.

Big difference. MVP can't win LBL or GdL even if Pogacar isn't racing.

 

[Berniece]

MVDP easily, he only loses when it’s too much climbing or gets too steep. But he can still win flat classics, while Pogacar can’t.

 

[tobydawq]

No but the obvious difference is that Pogacar can't win it because of Van der Poel, but Van der Poel can't win Lombardia even if Pogacar wasn't there. I doubt he'd be able to win Liege, frankly – I think the race dynamics with Pog/Remco suit him getting spring podiums there (see: Velasco).

Yeah, I know, that's why I'd give the nod to Pog as I said.

But it's still close.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

Edit: Overall Pogacar is clearly better. If I did a quick research, Pogacar would probably beat MVP in 70% of WT classics.

Cadel Evans
Omloop
Strade
San remo
De Panne
E3
G-W
Dwaars
RVV
Roubaix
Amstel
Fleche
Lbl
Frankfurt
Copenhagen
San Sebastian
Hamburg
Bretagne
Quebec
Montreal
Lombardia

That’s 21 races, meaning Pogacar would need to be clearly favoured in 15 to reach 70%. In which of these races do you favour MVDP?

 

[Peyroteo94]

Cadel Evans
Omloop
Strade
San remo
De Panne
E3
G-W
Dwaars
RVV
Roubaix
Amstel
Fleche
Lbl
Frankfurt
Copenhagen
San Sebastian
Hamburg
Bretagne
Quebec
Montreal
Lombardia

That’s 21 races, meaning Pogacar would need to be clearly favoured in 15 to reach 70%. In which of these races do you favour MVDP?

Taking a quick look since we are talking about winning the race while beating the other (it doesn't matter if Pogacar beats MVP if he can't win the classic. I think we both agree on this).

If they both peaked for each race and a good startlist was in the race:

Cadel Evans
De Panne
Copenhagen
Hamburg

These races neither of them would win. Sprint classics.

Omloop
MSR
E3
GW
Dwaars
PR
Quebec

I would favor MVP

SB
AGR
FW
LBL
Frankfurt
CSS
Bretagne
Montreal
GdL

In 16 races, Pogacar would be the favorite to win 9 races, MVP 7 races.

56% - Pogacar

44% - MVP

I didn't add the WC but this year, Pogacar is more favorite to win it.
Feel free to disagree. Even if Bretagne is the only race where I wasn't so sure but the last 70 km are hard (250 km race) and UAE would probably cook MVP before Pogacar's attack.

Edit: There is also a thing important to say. It's easier for Pogacar to win when he is more suited to a race than MVP IMO. In races like GW, Omloop, E3, Dwars, MSR, I can definitely see riders like Pedersen or Wout coming back and win against MVP and Pogacar in a sprint (e.g. E3 2023).
If they made a duel about who gets more wins and both raced to not let the other win in races more suited to the opponent, I'm fairly sure MVP would win very few races. Imagine Pogacar racing like Vingegaard in Col de la Loze, MVP would not win MSR, Omloop, E3, GW, etc. But MVP can't do a damn thing in hilly classics.

I forgot to mention RVV, I think Pogacar is favorite.
7/17: 41%
10/17: 59%

 

[fenns]

I voted Remco for the hell of it. What's the excuse for his other voters?

 

[Peyroteo94]

MVDP easily, he only loses when it’s too much climbing or gets too steep. But he can still win flat classics, while Pogacar can’t.

By flat classics you mean only PR, right? I fail to see other flat classics he won.
But isn't Pogacar able to win climbing classics while MVP isn't, right? Or flat classics are nore important than climbing classics?

 

[Berniece]

By flat classics you mean only PR, right? I fail to see other flat classics he won.
But isn't Pogacar able to win climbing classics while MVP isn't, right? Or flat classics are nore important than climbing classics?

There are some climbing classics that I don't see MVDP win. Lombardia being one of them. But no, I don't only mean PR. He doesn't need to win them to know he could win them. Gent-Wevelgem for example.

 

[Peyroteo94]

There are some climbing classics that I don't see MVDP win. Lombardia being one of them. But no, I don't only mean PR. He doesn't need to win them to know he could win them. Gent-Wevelgem for example.

And Pogacar can't win GW or PR? Is this your point?

 

[TrekCyclist]

Until Pogacar has not shown that he can win Hamburg (prefarbly after going solo at this Waserberg), I am not willing to give my final call on this.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Pogacar is literally exploding in Jaizkibel in August, I wouldnt count on him doing remotely well in classics after the Tour. August and November are probably Pog's worst months during the whole calender

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I voted Remco for the hell of it. What's the excuse for his other voters?

I did it mainly to annoy people.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

Frankfurt

With Feldberg ending around 90 km before finish and Mammolshain 45 km before the finish I find it very hard to believe this would be a race where Pogacar would win. If I'm right that would mean 8-9 in favour Pogacar.

And Cadel Evans Ocean Race has a 1,1 km 8,5 wall like 10 kilometers before the finish. I dont think that would be a "Sprint Classic" if MVDP and Pogacar were on the start list. And in that scenario I would favour MVDP, taking it up to 9-9.

Then if we look at the 3 others, you are likely correct that none of them would win (Hamburg could be completely off the table for MVDP I think), but MVDP would still on paper be better than Pogacar in these 3. If I'm right about Frankfurt and Cadel Evans (we will probably never get the answer) then it should be 12-9 in favour MVDP when looking at WT Classics. That might be slightly optimistic in favour MVDP, but it's at least very far away from your first 70% estimate in favour Pog.

 

[Wyndbrook]

Taking a quick look since we are talking about winning the race while beating the other (it doesn't matter if Pogacar beats MVP if he can't win the classic. I think we both agree on this).

If they both peaked for each race and a good startlist was in the race:

Cadel Evans
De Panne
Copenhagen
Hamburg

These races neither of them would win. Sprint classics.

Omloop
MSR
E3
GW
Dwaars
PR
Quebec

I would favor MVP

SB
AGR
FW
LBL
Frankfurt
CSS
Bretagne
Montreal
GdL

In 16 races, Pogacar would be the favorite to win 9 races, MVP 7 races.

56% - Pogacar

44% - MVP

I didn't add the WC but this year, Pogacar is more favorite to win it.
Feel free to disagree. Even if Bretagne is the only race where I wasn't so sure but the last 70 km are hard (250 km race) and UAE would probably cook MVP before Pogacar's attack.

Edit: There is also a thing important to say. It's easier for Pogacar to win when he is more suited to a race than MVP IMO. In races like GW, Omloop, E3, Dwars, MSR, I can definitely see riders like Pedersen or Wout coming back and win against MVP and Pogacar in a sprint (e.g. E3 2023).
If they made a duel about who gets more wins and both raced to not let the other win in races more suited to the opponent, I'm fairly sure MVP would win very few races. Imagine Pogacar racing like Vingegaard in Col de la Loze, MVP would not win MSR, Omloop, E3, GW, etc. But MVP can't do a damn thing in hilly classics.

I forgot to mention RVV, I think Pogacar is favorite.
7/17: 41%
10/17: 59%

If just taking this view, which looks pretty realistic, VDP has won and beaten
Pogacar in Strade which makes it evens.

 

[Peyroteo94]

With Feldberg ending around 90 km before finish and Mammolshain 45 km before the finish I find it very hard to believe this would be a race where Pogacar would win. If I'm right that would mean 8-9 in favour Pogacar.

And Cadel Evans Ocean Race has a 1,1 km 8,5 wall like 10 kilometers before the finish. I dont think that would be a "Sprint Classic" if MVDP and Pogacar were on the start list. And in that scenario I would favour MVDP, taking it up to 9-9.

Then if we look at the 3 others, you are likely correct that none of them would win (Hamburg could be completely off the table for MVDP I think), but MVDP would still on paper be better than Pogacar in these 3. If I'm right about Frankfurt and Cadel Evans (we will probably never get the answer) then it should be 12-9 in favour MVDP when looking at WT Classics. That might be slightly optimistic in favour MVDP, but it's at least very far away from your first 70% estimate in favour Pog.

Frankfurt is clearly suited to Pogacar compared to MVP. UAE would drop MVP even before Pogacar's attack. It's a climbing course and favors Pogacar's engine. Who would catch him if he went solo btw?

 

[Peyroteo94]

If just taking this view, which looks pretty realistic, VDP has won and beaten
Pogacar in Strade which makes it evens.

We are in 2025, not in 2021. For some reason MVP doesn't even race SB nowadays.

 

[KZD]

My criteria is including all trade team one day races so I just exclude national team races (Europeans, Worlds and Olympics).

I voted Pogačar. One more monument win than Van der Poel and more WT one day race wins too. Plus, he has podium all 5 monuments while Van der Poel has only podiumed 4. Van der Poel is still a close second though, just like Pogačar he is one of the best classics rider ever.

Remco comes third, much closer to the likes of Van Aert and Pedersen than Pogačar and Van der Poel because he only has two monument wins. He would be closer in the one day race department because of his success riding for Belgium but still behind Pogačar and Van der Poel.

 

[scribers]

We are in 2025, not in 2021. For some reason MVP doesn't even race SB nowadays.

Too much vert