Who will win the 2015 Giro and succeed Quintana?

[movingtarget]

Contador's race to lose unless someone does something unexpected or Contador has problems with illness etc. Contador is tough to beat in a week long stage race but he is very hard to crack in a GT. Hopefully Porte, Uran and Aru can push Contador and make the race more entertaining than many expect it will be.

 

[IndianCyclist]

Contador
Very few win their first GC attempt.
This is Porte's first serious attempt. Its unlikely that he will win as he does not have the exp. Its a different ball game day in day out.
Aru & Uran not at Contador's level. He defeated Ricco without proper training in 2008

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

Contador with +5 minute to second.

Cmon, unless the others just crack while Berto is cruising, he won't take that much time once he has 2 minutes he'll just suck wheels

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Contador. If he's in anywhere near his 2014 shape, it will be a 2011-reprise. If he's not quite as strong, he will eventually outfox the others or beat them on consistency.
Porte is also likely to have an off-day. He always has that, while Aru is not a great time trialler. Uran hasn't shown much so far but could prove to be the most consistent challenger to Contador. That said, Contador needs to endure a sickness to lose against 2nd tier GT riders like Uran.

 

[Jancouver]

Had to vote for Fatancur jsut because his name was an option

 

[phanatic]

Re:

Neophyte to cycling here. How's that so many people says that Porte will win, if he hasn't even made it to the top 20 in a GT in four years (excepting 19th place in the Tour 2013). I know about his season results, but... how?

The 19th at the 2013 Tour is a bit misleading. On the first mountain stage he crushed everyone except Froome, and that was after doing domestique work. On the following stage Sky got caught out by a very strong early pace from competitors and Richie was caught in no man's land; losing a lot of time and expending a lot of energy in a failed bid to catch the lead group. By the time the third week rolled round, he was again one of the strongest climbers.

 

[Sciocco]

Re: Re:

Contador with +5 minute to second.

Cmon, unless the others just crack while Berto is cruising, he won't take that much time once he has 2 minutes he'll just suck wheels

Yep, I think it'll just happen. He won giro 2011 by 6+ if I remember correctly. Contador will put time into Pozzovivo and Aru in the ITT and can put time into them in the mountains too, at least some. Uran will likely do better than Contador in the ITT but how will he keep up on Montirolo, Finestre, and such? Porte, I'm not sure, he could ride very well or have his bad day or even have his form slipping later in the Giro. I think something will go wrong with porte.

 

[Mozart92]

Who voted Basso? He's too old now, He won't be able to end up in the top 20.

 

[Netserk]

So far the standings between the five contenders:

Contador
Aru +6''
Uran +12''
Porte +20''
Pozzovivo +1'57''

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Pozzovivo already 2 minutes down? Hilarious. I don't understand why he's included among the contenders though.

 

[Marco Pantani]

I don't understand a lot of things and comments as well, Hugo.

 

[Jspear]

Re:

Pozzovivo already 2 minutes down? Hilarious. I don't understand why he's included among the contenders though.

He was considered a contender for the top 5 because he has placed 5th in the past. Whoever considered him a contender for the win?

 

[Netserk]

Pozzovivo is as much a contender as anyone else not named Contador. He was/is in the run for a podium spot. He is still more likely to top-5 than anyone else outside the 5 listed.

 

[Mozart92]

Re:

Pozzovivo is as much a contender as anyone else not named Contador. He was/is in the run for a podium spot. He is still more likely to top-5 than anyone else outside the 5 listed.

I agree with the others. Pozzovivo may be a strong climber but that 60km of TT between Treviso and Valdobbiadene will cost him in the BEST case scenario 3-4 minutes from Contador.

 

[the delgados]

Re:

Neophyte to cycling here. How's that so many people says that Porte will win, if he hasn't even made it to the top 20 in a GT in four years (excepting 19th place in the Tour 2013). I know about his season results, but... how?

Go visit the clinic to get an idea why Porte is a big favourite to win the Giro.
Also, previous GC placings don't mean a lot if Porte's sole job was to tow the likes of Froome to the line in mountain stages. His job was to bury himself on mountain stages to make sure Froome arrived ahead of everyone else. I'm sure he lost a lot of minutes in the last few km's of major mountain stages of Le Tour. I don't think it will happen at the Giro. He's in it to win it. And he probably will. That said, I'm pulling for Ryder.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re: Re:

Pozzovivo already 2 minutes down? Hilarious. I don't understand why he's included among the contenders though.

He was considered a contender for the top 5 because he has placed 5th in the past. Whoever considered him a contender for the win?

If the other four crash out!!

 

[sir fly]

Pozzovivo shouldn't be underestimated. The time he lost so far (ttt and stage 2) might be the biggest chunk he'll give away in the race.
He'll lose some time in the itt, as well, but I'm sure he'll surprise many.
The problem is, when the mishaps start so early, they tend to become one's enchantment.

 

[sir fly]

Terrible.

 

[Svetty]

If Aru has prepared properly he won't be far away.....

 

[carton]

Re:

Terrible.

Actually I thought that as far as jinxes go that one was absolutely phenomenal.

Was waiting for Pozzovivo to be given the all-clear before I said anything, though. That looked nasty, glad he's OK.

 

[sir fly]

Thank God Pozzovivo is stable.
Hopefully, we'll see him soon on his bike.

After the fall, I felt really depressed and decided to ride the feelings out of my system.
There are some pictures in the weather thread.