I think he'll be overpowered by Andy and/or Vino. Katusha and Leopard have the teams to make this very, very hard for Gilbert: Leopard could send Voight, Wegmann and Monfort up on the road early and still hold back the Schlecks and Fuglsang for if Gilbert catches that break; same for Katusha with all their riders.
Yes, Gilbert did already beat all those other favourites twice now, but LBL is completely different from AGR and LFW. It does not come down to a single mountain sprint, Gilbert will need to work to keep everything together, and I don't see him succeeding there.
My prediction: A break with at least 1 person from both Leopard and Katusha will escape, but will be caught partly thanks to the help Rabo gave Lotto in the chase. A attack by Kolobnev will seperate the strongest from their main domestiques (with the entire Rabo team obviously lagging behind, all their work again for nothing). Some attacks will follow, but not succeed, until Andy Schleck launches an attack. The others will sit on Gilbert's wheel for a while, until Vino launches his attack near the top of the hill. He'll catch Schleck on the flat and they'll work together until the end, where Vino will go clear and win his third.
Of course, if Gilbert would indeed win this he will be a very worthy winner, and I'll be cheering for him just as loudly as for Vino. I just hope this won't come down to a group sprint, I prefer it when a rider is clearly stronger than the rest on all levels, not just in the final 200 meters.