Will the ITT decide this thing?

[Ninety5rpm]

Here are some results from the past:

2004:
1 Lance Armstrong (USA) US Postal p/b Berry Floor 1.06.49 (49.39 km/h)
2 Jan Ullrich (Ger) T-Mobile Team 1.01
3 Andreas Klöden (Ger) T-Mobile Team 1.27
4 Floyd Landis (USA) US Postal p/b Berry Floor 2.25
5 Bobby Julich (USA) Team CSC 2.48
6 Ivan Basso (Ita) Team CSC 2.50
7 Jens Voigt (Ger) Team CSC 3.19
8 Vladimir Karpets (Rus) Illes Balears - Banesto 3.33
9 Jose Luis Rubiera (Spa) US Postal p/b Berry Floor 3.40
10 Jose Azevedo (Por) US Postal p/b Berry Floor 3.49
11 George Hincapie (USA) US Postal p/b Berry Floor 3.56
12 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Rabobank 4.06
13 Santos Gonzalez (Spa) Phonak Hearing Systems 4.17
14 Aitor Gonzalez Jimenez (Spa) Fassa Bortolo 4.33
15 José I.Gutierrez Palacios (Spa) Illes Balears - Banesto 4.53
16 Viatcheslav Ekimov (Rus) US Postal p/b Berry Floor 4.54
17 Carlos Sastre (Spa) Team CSC 4.56

2005:
1 Lance Armstrong (USA) Discovery Channel 1.11.46 (46.4 km/h)
2 Jan Ullrich (Ger) T-Mobile Team 0.23
3 Alexandre Vinokourov (Kaz) T-Mobile Team 1.16
4 Bobby Julich (USA) Team CSC 1.33
5 Ivan Basso (Ita) Team CSC 1.54
6 Floyd Landis (USA) Phonak Hearing Systems 2.02
7 Cadel Evans (Aus) Davitamon-Lotto 2.06
8 George Hincapie (USA) Discovery Channel 2.25
9 Francisco Mancebo (Spa) Illes Balears-Caisse d'Epargne 2.51
10 Vladimir Karpets (Rus) Illes Balears-Caisse d'Epargne 3.05
11 Yaroslav Popovych (Ukr) Discovery Channel 3.09
12 Carlos Sastre (Spa) Team CSC 3.10
13 Christophe Moreau (Fra) Credit Agricole 3.11
14 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Gerolsteiner 3.13
15 Oscar Pereiro Sio (Spa) Phonak Hearing Systems 3.25

I mean, look at those gaps.

However, here are the 2002 Ventoux results:

1 Richard Virenque (Fra) Domo-Farm Frites 5.43.26 (38.61 km/h)
2 Alexandre Botcharov (Rus) Ag2R Prevoyance 1.58
3 Lance Armstrong (USA) US Postal Service 2.20
4 Marco Serpellini (Ita) Lampre Daikin 2.54
5 Raimondas Rumsas (Ltu) Lampre Daikin 3.36
6 Ivan Basso (Ita) Fassa Bortolo 3.39
7 Francisco Mancebo (Spa) iBanesto.com 3.51
8 Joseba Beloki (Spa) ONCE-Eroski 4.05
9 Dariusz Baranowski (Pol) iBanesto.com 4.10
10 Ivan Gotti (Ita) Alessio 4.16
11 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Rabobank 4.25
12 José Azevedo (Por) ONCE-Eroski 4.45
13 Stephane Goubert (Fra) Jean Delatour 5.25
14 David Moncoutié (Fra) Cofidis 5.46
15 Roberto Heras Hernandez (Spa) US Postal Service
16 Oscar Sevilla (Spa) Kelme-Costa Blanca 5.52
17 Cristian Moreni (Ita) Alessio 5.57
18 Jean-Cyril Robin (Fra) FDJeux.com 7.07
19 Tyler Hamilton (USA) CSC-Tiscali
20 Mikel Pradera (Spa) ONCE-Eroski 7.29
21 Igor Gonzalez de Galdeano (Spa) ONCE-Eroski
22 Roberto Laiseka (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi
23 Michael Boogerd (Ned) Rabobank 7.47
24 Massimiliano Lelli (Ita) Cofidis 7.57
25 Andrei Kivilev (Kaz) Cofidis 8.01
26 Unai Osa (Spa) iBanesto.com 8.14
27 Wladimir Belli (Ita) Fassa Bortolo 8.14
28 José Luis Rubiera Vigil (Spa) US Postal Service 8.30
29 Carlos Sastre (Spa) CSC-Tiscali 8.37

Two important considerations:

1) the ITT results above are from 55km ITTs, and this year it's only 40km

2) The first 2 riders on Ventoux were in an "allowed" break. As such, the 10th guy after Armstrong lost 3 minutes on Ventoux, while the 10th guy in each of the 55k ITTs lost a little over 3 minutes.

3) The vast majority of riders got a distinctive time on Ventoux, indicating they ended up almost all separating from each other.

So, we should expect significant gaps in both stages, but perhaps a bit more from Ventoux than from the ITT.

 

[yetanothergreenworld]

I almost feel like this thread should be called, "Will the TTT decide this thing?" I think it's a shame that, halfway through the Tour, the results from the TTT have basically set the results on GC. I'm sure the ITT and Ventoux will dislodge things a bit, but there's no way the TTT deserves to have the major impact on GC that it inevitably does.

 

[subzro]

I agree, the ITT is going to have nowhere near the impact of the TTT, the only exception to that is that it will cause a time gap between LA and AC, whereas the TTT they obviously recorded the same time. I think AC will actually put some time on LA here.

Other than that look for a huge effort from Cadel, it will be good to see him going into the TT without the pressure of losing the tour on his shoulders, I see him finishing second to Spartacus.

To answer the question, no I don't think it will decide it. I think it's going to be decided before the TT.

 

[anubisza]

To answer the question, no I don't think it will decide it. I think it's going to be decided before the TT.

I agree. The ITT isn't long enough, the time differences won't be huge. Ventoux will be more telling, but the GC will probably be in a pretty solid shape before that, and the ITT.

 

[TibetT]

Other than that look for a huge effort from Cadel, it will be good to see him going into the TT without the pressure of losing the tour on his shoulders, I see him finishing second to Spartacus.
To answer the question, no I don't think it will decide it. I think it's going to be decided before the TT.

I agree it won't be decieded by the ITT. While Spartacus should be the favourite for the ITT, I think we might see some surprises. Having another look at the profile - it appears to be less suited to ITT specialists that usual. Cadel could be a good pick for this stage, along with AC.

 

[Ten Percent Grade]

I think Lance is in yellow after the ITT and it sets up some major fireworks on Ventoux.

 

[Chomsky]

I think Lance is in yellow after the ITT and it sets up some major fireworks on Ventoux.

I really doubt Lance will do all that well in the ITT. I give him a chance as he always ridden his best when it counts. But its hard for to believe a man who took 4 years off can do that well in a 40km TT. His bike handling was awful on stage 1 and he rode a very sloppy TT. Lance has always had a large margin of error in TT's where he could start slow and pace himself and finish strong avoiding the risk of blowing up like 2003. This year he will likely need to start strong to put immediate pressure on Contador. Lance will likely have to gauge his effort absolutely perfectly. Which if he guesses wrong could result in a very bad day for himself. But then again we don't know how much he has improved since stage 1 nor how much a toll the Alps will inflict upon his strength and confidence.

Contador is not that great in long TT's. He is much better in prologues and shorter TT's. So to a degree he is a wildcard as well. There is a small climb on the TT course but not a lot of climbing to give Contador the kind of advantage like he had in this years prologue. But the ITT means quite a lot to his chances and he will try to ride the TT of his life. So expect him to do well. Most likely he will do considerably less work in the Alps than the other 3 Astana contenders and he will come in fresher to the ITT. Contador's biggest weakness is probably his age. Like most 26 year old kiddies he appears to be impatient, lacks vision, is insecure, is full of himself and he is very immature. Johan said Contador is his own worst enemy and is his own biggest threat to winning. That being said he also appears to have a champions heart and desire to win. I can't see him doing anything but his best in the ITT. He wants to win to much to mess this up. Absent going out to hard to early and blowing up he should put some time into his Astana rivals.

Levi probably has a better chance than Lance to put some time on Contador. Levi is very good at long TT's and much better on non technical TT's. How much gas will Levi have left on stage 18. Stage 17 is quite a brutal stage. But if we look at the ITT from the best case scenario for Levi if levi has a great day and Contador is riding poorly Levi could put 1-2 minutes into Contador and positions himself to win the tour. In reality its a long shot but I think its a better long shot than any of the Lance wins the tour scenarios. Wiggins winning the tour is probably a better longhot as his climbing or lack of climbing is a bigger unknown.

But regardless of who one supports the ITT is Contador's chance to put his stamp on the tour and prove he is a champion worthy of winning the race. An opportunity I think we all expect him to take advantage of. Beating Cancellera might be to much but he could and should distance his Astana rivals.

 

[Publicus]

Contador is not that great in long TT's. He is much better in prologues and shorter TT's. So to a degree he is a wildcard as well. There is a small climb on the TT course but not a lot of climbing to give Contador the kind of advantage like he had in this years prologue. But the ITT means quite a lot to his chances and he will try to ride the TT of his life. So expect him to do well. Most likely he will do considerably less work in the Alps than the other 3 Astana contenders and he will come in fresher to the ITT. Contador's biggest weakness is probably his age. Like most 26 year old kiddies he appears to be impatient, lacks vision, is insecure, is full of himself and he is very immature. Johan said Contador is his own worst enemy and is his own biggest threat to winning. That being said he also appears to have a champions heart and desire to win. I can't see him doing anything but his best in the ITT. He wants to win to much to mess this up. Absent going out to hard to early and blowing up he should put some time into his Astana rivals.

1. He's not bad in longer TT. He finished 4th or 5th in this year's Dauphine Libere time trial which was a similar length as Stage 18 (and if I recall correctly similar profile) and clearly wasn't giving it full gas. I think he will surprise some folks with a very good effort against the clock.

2. The highlighted passage is . . . interesting. He's both insecure AND full of himself? Usually those two don't go together.

 

[Chomsky]

2. The highlighted passage is . . . interesting. He's both insecure AND full of himself? Usually those two don't go together.

Usually the more self absorbed someone is often the more insecure they are. Self absorption and insecurity is also a trademark of youth. Lacking the understanding of others along with a lack of general knowledge it is very hard for them to understand how they fit in. Male youths brains do not fully mature physically allowing them to develop empathy and a understanding of other peoples feelings until around age 25. Its not a slight at Contador per se but its generally very hard for young people not to be self absorbed and insecure at such a young age.

In regards to the Dauphine Contador finished 37 seconds behind Evans who also was not on his best form. Contador is not a small man and and does much worse in long TT's than prologues and shorter TT's. With all the contenders and semi-contenders going all out on stage 18's TT the gaps could get just bigger for Contador. Yes there is the possibility Contador could have a bad day and lose the tour on stage 18 but again despite Contador's limitations he has to much riding on stage 18 not to do well. Plus he will likely be much fresher than Levi, LA and Kloeden. From a fans standpoint it is good there is some doubt as to how he will do. But I am guessing the lance lovers will not be happy on stage 18.

 

[anubisza]

I don't think you can argue that Contador is time trialling better than Armstrong, so the chances of LA taking time out of him on the ITT are slim to none in my opinion. And even if he does, Contador is a much better climber. So there is no contest.

 

[andrew_s]

There is a small climb on the TT course but not a lot of climbing to give Contador the kind of advantage like he had in this years prologue.

How do you reckon that then?
Monaco climbed 200m in 7.5km, (or 120m in 2km for the first part). The climb on the Annecy course is 220m in 2.5-3km

 

[Publicus]

Usually the more self absorbed someone is often the more insecure they are. Self absorption and insecurity is also a trademark of youth. Lacking the understanding of others along with a lack of general knowledge it is very hard for them to understand how they fit in. Male youths brains do not fully mature physically allowing them to develop empathy and a understanding of other peoples feelings until around age 25. Its not a slight at Contador per se but its generally very hard for young people not to be self absorbed and insecure at such a young age.

In regards to the Dauphine Contador finished 37 seconds behind Evans who also was not on his best form. Contador is not a small man and and does much worse in long TT's than prologues and shorter TT's. With all the contenders and semi-contenders going all out on stage 18's TT the gaps could get just bigger for Contador. Yes there is the possibility Contador could have a bad day and lose the tour on stage 18 but again despite Contador's limitations he has to much riding on stage 18 not to do well. Plus he will likely be much fresher than Levi, LA and Kloeden. From a fans standpoint it is good there is some doubt as to how he will do. But I am guessing the lance lovers will not be happy on stage 18.

I've always taken the phrase to me that the person has a high value of themself, not that they are self-absorbed (which I would usually call selfish or lacking self-awareness). As for the insecurity, I certainly don't think he is insecure in his abilities. Maybe not confident in JB or some of his teammates (and understandably so), but that's as far as one can go unless you've had the young man on the couch for a psychiatric session.

I'm always uncomfortable drawing a conclusion about someone based on "generalities". There is always an exception to the generality. Always.

 

[Publicus]

How do you reckon that then?
Monaco climbed 200m in 7.5km, (or 120m in 2km for the first part). The climb on the Annecy course is 220m in 2.5-3km

The difference between a Category 4 climb on Stage 1, and a Cat 3 on Stage 18. I think that it will cause some pain to the bigger diesel engines. The shift in rhythm....

 

[Ninety5rpm]

I almost feel like this thread should be called, "Will the TTT decide this thing?" I think it's a shame that, halfway through the Tour, the results from the TTT have basically set the results on GC. I'm sure the ITT and Ventoux will dislodge things a bit, but there's no way the TTT deserves to have the major impact on GC that it inevitably does.

If the ITT and Ventoux do not dislodge things more than a bit, that's not the fault of the TTT, that's the result of Evans, Sastre, Schleck et al. not being able to get time on AC and LA in the mountains or the ITT because they are not stronger.

 

[Coach Hawk]

I agree. The ITT isn't long enough, the time differences won't be huge. Ventoux will be more telling, but the GC will probably be in a pretty solid shape before that, and the ITT.

Just curious when and where you see the GC solidifying? I really don't think anything prior to the ITT or Ventoux is challenging enough to see much separation at the top.

 

[anubisza]

Just curious when and where you see the GC solidifying? I really don't think anything prior to the ITT or Ventoux is challenging enough to see much separation at the top.

Stage 15 finishes on the cat 1 Verbier, I'm sure we'll see some time gaps there.

 

[Coach Hawk]

I don't think you can argue...

You must not have been paying attention--people here can (and do) argue about anything!

 

[Publicus]

Just curious when and where you see the GC solidifying? I really don't think anything prior to the ITT or Ventoux is challenging enough to see much separation at the top.

Frankly I think tomorrow will see the jersey switch to Contador. I just don't see AG2R controlling the situation enough that Nocentini is blown out the back on Platzerwasel (I expect an attack from someone) and I fully expect some kind of attack on Col du Firstplan. Though as I type this, I'm looking at the profile and there are 20.5KM after you crest Firstplan, so the damage may be minimal amongst the GC contenders.

I think it would be a smart move for Contador to get the yellow jersey. I don't know if JB is ready to get the jersey yet, but I don't know how he avoids it at this point.

 

[Escarabajo]

Just curious when and where you see the GC solidifying? I really don't think anything prior to the ITT or Ventoux is challenging enough to see much separation at the top.

The stage 17 to Grand Bornard looks very difficult.

It finishes on a descent but the last two climbs are very close together.

Km 140.5 - Col de Romme - 8.8 km climb to 8.9 % - Category 1
Km 154.5 - Col de la Colombière - 7.5 km climb to 8.5 % - Category 1

Total distance for the last two climbs is 16.3 km with higher than 8.5% gradient. That's tough. The small descent between both climbs is only 6.5 km.

Andy Schleck said before the tour that this would be one of the key stages. This stage along with the ITT and Ventoux will probably decide the race.

Just my two cents.

 

[Publicus]

The stage 17 to Grand Bornard looks very difficult.

It finishes on a descent but the last two climbs are very close together.

Km 140.5 - Col de Romme - 8.8 km climb to 8.9 % - Category 1
Km 154.5 - Col de la Colombière - 7.5 km climb to 8.5 % - Category 1

Total distance for the last two climbs is 16.3 km with higher than 8.5% gradient. That's tough. The small descent between both climbs is only 6.5 km.

Andy Schleck said before the tour that this would be one of the key stages. This stage along with the ITT and Ventoux will probably decide the race.

Just my two cents.

This was the next stage I was going to point out. It's simply nuts. I think this will have more impact on the GC than Ventoux.

 

[Coach Hawk]

This was the next stage I was going to point out. It's simply nuts. I think this will have more impact on the GC than Ventoux.

No doubt it is a brutal stage. It's that 20k downhill at the end that's the issue. If someone on Astana attacks, it could get interesting. However, if Astana just marks (and other than the intra-squad struggles, they have no need or reason to attack), then you have 3-4 of them to work together to pull people back.

 

[anubisza]

You must not have been paying attention--people here can (and do) argue about anything!

I blame Lance Armstrong for that

 

[richwagmn]

This was the next stage I was going to point out. It's simply nuts. I think this will have more impact on the GC than Ventoux.

There could be some major times gains. Pop on a climb early and it could be a really, really bad day.

 

[Chomsky]

How do you reckon that then?
Monaco climbed 200m in 7.5km, (or 120m in 2km for the first part). The climb on the Annecy course is 220m in 2.5-3km

Monaco had two parts to the stage a 7.5km climb and a technical descent. many of the Tour contenders like Contador and Armstrong did not put much effort into the descent. So essentially it became a 7.5 km climb which separated many of the contenders. Stage 18 is not as technical. Its 40km with 3.5 km of climbing and 37 km of not climbing. Meaning the climbing is not as significant in the stage as Stage 1. Stage 1 favored a good climber assuming all equal on the technical descent. Stage 18 does not favor the climber but appears to favor one who excels at long mostly flat time trials.

 

[Publicus]

There could be some major times gains. Pop on a climb early and it could be a really, really bad day.

I can certainly see it happening. Astana will be in for a tough day in the saddle--I assume Contador will have the jersey at this point.