With how big a margin will Nibali win this Tour?

[Netserk]

Current GC:

 

[Jspear]

I'd say 3-4. I could see him gaining a little more time on riders like Porte, Valverde, and Tjay, but then I think they'd take back a little of that time in the TT (Porte and Tjay.)

 

[Sciocco]

I'd say 3-4. I could see him gaining a little more time on riders like Porte, Valverde, and Tjay, but then I think they'd take back a little of that time in the TT (Porte and Tjay.)

Absolutely agree with this.

Would've voted "he won't win" if I noticed it before I voted for a time, o well.

 

[Afrank]

Is the Vino option the option for anything over 8 minutes? I'll go with that.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

5/6 minutes

When the best your opponents can come up with is "he has advantage in the rain" or "he is not unbeatable".. it means they have pretty much given up any hope and know that without fall nibali wins

 

[Netserk]

Is the Vino option the option for anything over 8 minutes? I'll go with that.

Yes it is

 

[Rollthedice]

Around what Froome had last year.

 

[classicomano]

It'll probably look something like this:

 

[BYOP88]

Nibali won't win. The rumor I've heard is that Pinot has signed for Sky for next year , Brailsford has probably already told him about pillows, washing hands and pineapple juice.

 

[SeriousSam]

He's going to win the time trial.

 

[LosBrolin]

He's going to win the time trial.

This. Congratz Panzer.

 

[Jancouver]

10+ minutes by Paris is doable if he wants to but I think he will be just covering attacks and may lose 1/2 minute in the TT

 

[maxmartin]

10+ minutes by Paris is doable if he wants to but I think he will be just covering attacks and may lose 1/2 minute in the TT

my friend actually works for the company you hate, he is part of N's TT training slash bike design team. He told me quite a few months ago N's TT power output was on par with F's 2013 tour TT data based on their model. Of course it is a few months ago before N shed some serious weight. But N's cobble performance confirmed this, he is in front of the whole peloton almost the whole stage, and you have to put some serious watts to drop some cobble specialists. So I am not surprised if N gets very close to Tony in ITT or even wins it, since it seems Tony is also in the form of his life.

 

[Escarabajo]

He will win thanks to the Pave. That is all I have to say!

 

[cineteq]

He will win thanks to the Pave. That is all I have to say!

Gotcha. Namely, thanks to the pavé he was able to get a 10 minute margin.

 

[Oldman]

He will win thanks to the Pave. That is all I have to say!

If the wind underneath him from the wings of all of his supporters beating furiously he will sustain his current gap, plus 1 minute.
For the Faithful know that the B*tch Goddess of Gravity rules us all and, while Vincenzo has been been held aloft by your hopes; she can change her mind at a moment's notice. That has been the total difference in this Tour.

 

[LaFlorecita]

5/6 minutes

When the best your opponents can come up with is "he has advantage in the rain" or "he is not unbeatable".. it means they have pretty much given up any hope and know that without fall nibali wins

Yeah, this. Probably 3 more stage wins too. It's all a bit meh.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

The cobbles stage demonstrated Nibali's strength in this race luckily. By far the strongest GC rider.

The two uphill sprints just confirmed Nibali is the best rider here.

The long TT will cement Nibali's all round skills.

6 minutes.

 

[Netserk]

Already 3½ minutes with 3 MTFs, a long ITT and descent finish to go.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Already 3½ minutes with 3 MTFs, a long ITT and descent finish to go.

I voted 5-6 minutes but it's looking like 10+ minutes now

 

[murali]

good that there is the best option available:

vino

 

[Oldman]

I voted 5-6 minutes but it's looking like 10+ minutes now

I don't think he'll work that hard, honestly. With Sky in shambles it would take a serious deal between Movistar and several other teams to get separation for a threat to reduce his current lead, though. He played the field tactically very well and used the throttle gradually. Nice ride.

 

[sir fly]

Looks like he'll arrive in Paris on Friday.

 

[warmfuzzies]

Barring a crash or a coordinated (multi-team) effort to crack Nibali, he could take another 1-2 minutes in stages 14,17, and 18. I expect he'll be top 10 in the ITT. If he plays it safe, then maybe those gains are only 15-30 seconds per mountain stage.

 

[Netserk]

Congratulations to Jancouver, the only user to guess the winning margin of Nibali.