Would another 2nd place in a GT do more harm than good for Evans?

[El Imbatido]

Thought i'd ask the question........Was thinking about it on my ride today. Will another GT second place do Evans more harm than good?

Mostly in respect to his mental strength. Would he then start doubting his GC abilities and credentials which then might lead to a downturn in performance? Also would another second lead to other teams possibly staying away from him when he comes off contract at the end of next season. ie. seeing him as someone who can't deliver that final blow for lack of better wording?

Or on the otherhand would another second place resurect his season and provide him with confidence that he can and possibily will break his duck sometime in the future and lead to other sucesses in the coming years?

Your thoughts?

 

[ak-zaaf]

Evans had a lot of chances riders with his talent normally don't get.
He was there in the (imo) 3 weakest tours in recent history. If Landis, Rasmussen and Sastre are able to win it, Evans did something wrong. Ok, he fell a couple of times, but who didn't?
Now Contador is too good, Sclecklet has matured and so will Kreuziger, Gesink, Nibali and others. The tour will never happen for him.

As I said in the vuelta thread, this is his chance. When Valverde is seen as the big favorite you know the field isn't really strong. If Evans really tries to win this vuelta and fails, even in this field, that's it. He and everybody else will know he'll never win a big one.

It's said before here: if Menchov can win 3 GT's, Evans should at least have a vuelta on his palmares.

 

[Carl0880]

Thought i'd ask the question........Was thinking about it on my ride today. Will another GT second place do Evans more harm than good?

Mostly in respect to his mental strength. Would he then start doubting his GC abilities and credentials which then might lead to a downturn in performance? Also would another second lead to other teams possibly staying away from him when he comes off contract at the end of next season. ie. seeing him as someone who can't deliver that final blow for lack of better wording?

Or on the otherhand would another second place resurect his season and provide him with confidence that he can and possibily will break his duck sometime in the future and lead to other sucesses in the coming years?

Your thoughts?

I think it would greatly enhance himself. Everyone was down on him after the TDF, and he came into this race with no intentions of racing until the TDF debacle. HIs team is very weak, especially compared to the TDF team (Which wasn't too strong either), and unlike the TDF, the Vuelta has many of the best riders are riding in their "home" race (Example Sanchez, Mosquera, Valverde, etc.). I think a podium of any kind would help encourage Evans that he has a chance to reach that number 1 podium step next year, and not on the backside of his career

 

[Bluebeard]

I think a bit of both - it seesm as though what should have been seen as a good season with an unfortunate tour has been so predicated on the tour by the press that he needs some redemption for his first poor Grand Tour in five years. Look at his wiki accessed palmares for the season:

2nd, Overall, Settimana internazionale di Coppi e Bartali
1st, Stage 5
2nd Overall Critérium du Dauphiné Libéré
1st Stage 1
1st Points classification
4th, Overall, Vuelta al País Vasco
5th, La Flèche Wallonne
7th, Overall, Tour de Romandie

Many top pro cyclists would take that for a quiet season. Two stage wins, twice second overall on important multi stage races, fifth in a semi classic. Good stuff. Yet his season is ruined by his failure to do well in the Tour?

So second would make it seem at least as good a season as it was.

Second again, however, could be devastating. In a GT without the Contadors, the Sastres, the Menchovs, and even with the Schlecklet abandoning, Evans has to be the favourite. Only Cunego, Basso and Vino have previously won a GT, I think. Vino is well out of it now, I can see Cunego strolling to prioritise the Worlds, and I don't know if Basso is back to what he was yet. The other major threats seem to be Valverde (will stop to caht up a lady while some hugely important thing happens, then attack on a pan flat sprinter stage and exhaust himself), Gesink (I think he is still a bit too young to top the podium yet, but could make it on to it) and Sanchez (I remain unconvinced of Sanchez's ability at the sharp end of the race - IMO he finished third two years ago largely because there was no chance he could win). Danielson and Valjavec are likely to end up top 5 without ever really looking like winning.

Evans will know all this, or at least be likely to think it. It all spells "You really can win this - this is your best chance yet". And if he fails, there comes a long moment of self doubt.

For what it is worth, I hope that Cuddles wins it. His team is devoid now of its best climbing domestique, so it will be tough. I expect Valaverde and maybe Gesink or Mosquera to have a spell in Gold, but I am backing Cuddles to be the first Aussie to win a Grand Tour!

 

[movingtarget]

Another Second Place ?

I think some people may be underestimating Evan's intelligence. I think he knows that 2007 and 2008 TDF were real opportunities for him. 2007 he sat back when he should not have on one stage and in 2008 a bad fall and by his standards a poor last time trial and pressure and expectations messed with his head.

I think if he lost the Vuelta by a handful of seconds it would really hurt him and bring back the past but if he has a few minutes put into him which is possible if he has a really bad day, he will quit the race and prepare for the World Championships. Many people seem to think he crumbled mentally in this year's Tour and even the comments from him seemed contradictory. He was great physically according to him and then a few days later he said he was not feeling right for the past week.

I would love to see him win as he takes more flak than anyone except Armstrong but for obviously different reasons. Most people think he should not have renewed his contract with Silence and it looks like he will see out next season with them as well. Katusha were reportedly after him and offered big money a few years ago and they definitely have a better team trial squad but in the mountains they don't look too strong either. A Vuelta win would help get the monkey off his back but it's obviously the TDF that the elite riders really want to win and Evans has made that clear time and time again in interviews. So far the race has been interesting. Evans is resilient but I agree, he really needs a result to give him a boost and a bit more self belief.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Evans had a lot of chances riders with his talent normally don't get.
He was there in the (imo) 3 weakest tours in recent history. If Landis, Rasmussen and Sastre are able to win it, Evans did something wrong. Ok, he fell a couple of times, but who didn't?
Now Contador is too good, Sclecklet has matured and so will Kreuziger, Gesink, Nibali and others. The tour will never happen for him.

As I said in the vuelta thread, this is his chance. When Valverde is seen as the big favorite you know the field isn't really strong. If Evans really tries to win this vuelta and fails, even in this field, that's it. He and everybody else will know he'll never win a big one.

It's said before here: if Menchov can win 3 GT's, Evans should at least have a vuelta on his palmares.

I agree, had this years field been at the tour from 06-08 then no way would have evans ever have won. His best chance to win the tour (for guys like menchov and sastre too.. only carlos sucecceded) has now passed. If he was smart he would avoid teh tour and compete for a Giro or Vuelta title in the next 1-2 years. However I'm not so sure he will ever win a GT. This could be his last real chance to win a GT (if he doesn't forget about the tour that is)

also to be fair. Menchov Vuelta 07 evans has never rode that well, and I don't think he could have beaten dennis this year at the vuelta either.

 

[ludwig]

There's Some Serious Competition

It will definitely be huge for Evans to win this Vuelta, but he's up against some major competition in Valverde, Basso, and Sanchez. Valverde and Basso in particular may be Contador's chief rivals at the Tour next year.

 

[Bluebeard]

Valverde and Basso in particular may be Contador's chief rivals at the Tour next year.

If he is very lucky and the tour doesn't go into Italy, you mean?

 

[richwagmn]

Yea, I don't think he needs any more seconds.

I think the guy has lots of talent but has some major mental issues. Just proves that physical ability isn't all it takes to win in cycling.

 

[dblueroom]

For that particular reason (another 2nd do more harm), I wish Evans could win here.

 

[titan_90]

I believe that he needs to ride this years Vuelta as if his career depends on it because it does. 08 was his best chance to win the Tour and he couldn't pull it off. Now with Contador back and Andy Schleck showing his talent along with several more young riders coming to the top and Jurgen Van Den Broeck wanting co-leadership, he has a snowballs chance in hell to win it.

 

[auscyclefan94]

I agree, had this years field been at the tour from 06-08 then no way would have evans ever have won. His best chance to win the tour (for guys like menchov and sastre too.. only carlos sucecceded) has now passed. If he was smart he would avoid teh tour and compete for a Giro or Vuelta title in the next 1-2 years. However I'm not so sure he will ever win a GT. This could be his last real chance to win a GT (if he doesn't forget about the tour that is)

also to be fair. Menchov Vuelta 07 evans has never rode that well, and I don't think he could have beaten dennis this year at the vuelta either.

How can you compare a field of riders (which have been looked upon as strong fields) from let say 05 or 06 when a lot of riders from that era were eliminated for doping scandals. 2007 was a strong field in my opinion. really people say evans doesn't have it when it comes down to the crunch but he has a lot go against him which guys like AC and CS had to worry about in their victories, a team and had luck with not crashing. all the strain of the tour caught up with him in the final tt in 08. He rode quite well in both tours which he lost but didn't have that little bit of luck which is required to win the tour. Give the guy a break, you wouldn't be saying this if he didn't have 1 bad tour this year.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Evans had a lot of chances riders with his talent normally don't get.
He was there in the (imo) 3 weakest tours in recent history. If Landis, Rasmussen and Sastre are able to win it, Evans did something wrong. Ok, he fell a couple of times, but who didn't?
Now Contador is too good, Sclecklet has matured and so will Kreuziger, Gesink, Nibali and others. The tour will never happen for him.

As I said in the vuelta thread, this is his chance. When Valverde is seen as the big favorite you know the field isn't really strong. If Evans really tries to win this vuelta and fails, even in this field, that's it. He and everybody else will know he'll never win a big one.

It's said before here: if Menchov can win 3 GT's, Evans should at least have a vuelta on his palmares.

The 3 weakest tour or cleanest tours?

 

[msjett]

I was going to refrain from posting in this thread, but I just can't help myself.

Regardless of what Cadel does it just isn't going to be good enough for some people. If he wins the Vuelta, he loses because people will devalue his win by saying it was a weak field as Contador and co were not racing. Something that has already been pointed out about the TDF in 07 and 08.

About the whining.....just listen to some of the others when things don't go their way, they are just as unhappy. Also the press tends to focus the negatives far too often, so we get a skewed version of what was said.

 

[TibetT]

+1 msjett you are correct. Evans won't win the popularity contest either way.....

 

[beroepsrenner]

Evans has 2 things against him. Firstly he doesnt cope with psychological stress very well and secondly, Silence/Lotto has never been able to offer him the team support required to win a grand tour. Most of his GT results have been achieved alone by riding defensively. It is to his credit that he has achieved the results that he has when he is left to cover all the attacks thrown at him by stronger teams leaving very little in reserve to launch any effective attacks of his own. Im not even sure that he has the confidence in his own ability to ride offensively anyway, he rarely shows it. Even if he doesnt win this Vuelta at least he is up the pointy end which in itself proves that he still has potential. IMO he will never win a GT while he stays with S/L.
He seems to be a bit of a head case but he is certainly a top class cyclist.

 

[42x16ss]

The respect that I have for Evans mostly comes from his efforts in the 05 and 06 Tours when Lotto was a pure sprinters team supporting a rampaging McKewen.

Last year Evans said that he was happy that it was Sastre who beat him in the Tour as Sastre carried drinks and food to him a couple of times on the 05 Tour when riding for Basso and Evans was at the pointy end of things all by himself. But I guess it wasn't as good a sound bite as his complaints so not everybody heard it...

 

[Four Winds]

Evans needs to use his head for thinking rather than as an offensive weapon. First TV cameras, now other riders. What next?

 

[bianchigirl]

Face it, Cuddles is the PouPou de nos jours - the sport needs an eternal second and that's Evans' designated role. He has neither the out and out talent nor the temperament to do better. He provides a great foil for the real GC contenders and his palmares are good enough to make them look even better. I think expecting him to win a GT is more damaging than his always being there and thereabouts but never on the top step.

 

[Cobber]

Evans has 2 things against him. Firstly he doesnt cope with psychological stress very well and secondly, Silence/Lotto has never been able to offer him the team support required to win a grand tour. Most of his GT results have been achieved alone by riding defensively. It is to his credit that he has achieved the results that he has when he is left to cover all the attacks thrown at him by stronger teams leaving very little in reserve to launch any effective attacks of his own. Im not even sure that he has the confidence in his own ability to ride offensively anyway, he rarely shows it. Even if he doesnt win this Vuelta at least he is up the pointy end which in itself proves that he still has potential. IMO he will never win a GT while he stays with S/L.
He seems to be a bit of a head case but he is certainly a top class cyclist.

+1... great post.

Now I just wish he could get out of SL this year. He does seem like he doesn't cope with the stress very well and SL is not the team for someone like that. Even Contador would have struggled to win the Tour with SL this year, and that is saying something!