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WTF is up at Astana? A Theory by tibbs

Sorry if this has been mentioned somewhere in the threads from today, I haven't been on the site all day so as to avoid spoilers till I got home to watch the recorded stage.

So.

In stage 3, Astana made a deal with Columbia to cause that split. Armstrong was to position himself at the front with some helpers and they would drop the peloton, give Cav another easy win, and give Armstrong enough time to become the highest placed rider on Astana, even if only by seconds, so when Astana iwns the TTT--PRESTO--Armstrong in yellow.

In order for this to work, Armstrong had to be the highest placed Astana rider in the break, so that ruled out Contador, Kloden, and Leipheimer. That is why they stayed behind. Their absence from the front group also ensured that the other race favorites wouldn't organize a serious chase and bring the move back. Remember that not only Contador but virtually every other captain, guys with the racing smarts of Sastre or experience of Menchov and Evans, all missed the break. The only way they would have made it is if they were warned. Armstrong was riding NEXT to Columbia's third man (out of nine) when the break formed, literally at the front of the peloton, in the wind. He knew it was coming, and so did Contador.

So Armstrong and a pair of Astanas who were lower than him are in the move. They drive the pace to put Armstrong above Contador and Kloden (with the knowledge and consent of Contador). Unfortunately, Cancellara got into the break with some cyclocross acrobatics, but, with such a powerful team, Armstrong should still get yellow when Astana wins the TTT.

According to the plan, Armstrong would get yellow for PR reasons, etc, and Contador takes over in the mountains. That's why Contador didn't go in the move, b/c it was all planned. You can't say he missed the boat, b/c would Evans, Menchov, Sastre, both Brothers Schleck, Kreuziger, Nibali, etc all miss the move, too? No, it was planned. Armstrong and Burnyeel cooked this up way back at the beginning of the comeback, and Contador, Kloden, and Leipheimer were all privy to the plan.

We know how it ends now, but Armstrong only missed yellow by tenths of a second. It was a pretty good plan, especially considering that Armstrong and Brunyeel probably came up with it months ago. :cool:
 
mr. tibbs said:
Sorry if this has been mentioned somewhere in the threads from today, I haven't been on the site all day so as to avoid spoilers till I got home to watch the recorded stage.

So.

In stage 3, Astana made a deal with Columbia to cause that split. Armstrong was to position himself at the front with some helpers and they would drop the peloton, give Cav another easy win, and give Armstrong enough time to become the highest placed rider on Astana, even if only by seconds, so when Astana iwns the TTT--PRESTO--Armstrong in yellow.

In order for this to work, Armstrong had to be the highest placed Astana rider in the break, so that ruled out Contador, Kloden, and Leipheimer. That is why they stayed behind. Their absence from the front group also ensured that the other race favorites wouldn't organize a serious chase and bring the move back. Remember that not only Contador but virtually every other captain, guys with the racing smarts of Sastre or experience of Menchov and Evans, all missed the break. The only way they would have made it is if they were warned. Armstrong was riding NEXT to Columbia's third man (out of nine) when the break formed, literally at the front of the peloton, in the wind. He knew it was coming, and so did Contador.

So Armstrong and a pair of Astanas who were lower than him are in the move. They drive the pace to put Armstrong above Contador and Kloden (with the knowledge and consent of Contador). Unfortunately, Cancellara got into the break with some cyclocross acrobatics, but, with such a powerful team, Armstrong should still get yellow when Astana wins the TTT.

According to the plan, Armstrong would get yellow for PR reasons, etc, and Contador takes over in the mountains. That's why Contador didn't go in the move, b/c it was all planned. You can't say he missed the boat, b/c would Evans, Menchov, Sastre, both Brothers Schleck, Kreuziger, Nibali, etc all miss the move, too? No, it was planned. Armstrong and Burnyeel cooked this up way back at the beginning of the comeback, and Contador, Kloden, and Leipheimer were all privy to the plan.

We know how it ends now, but Armstrong only missed yellow by tenths of a second. It was a pretty good plan, especially considering that Armstrong and Brunyeel probably came up with it months ago. :cool:


Dude,

Put down the Crack pipe. No serious chase??... Contador "didn't go" with the move??... What were you watching yesterday while the race was on?... reruns of Survivor?
 
Apr 29, 2009
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Their ( LA,JB ) first great plan was to keep Contador on the same team. They are the puppet masters. Contador will ride into Paris and suddenly realise that he is not wearing the yellow jersey.
 
Apr 11, 2009
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Makes sense, but whether it's probable or not, I don't know, LOL :D

FOR:
One thing I do know is when Hincapie was asked about Lance being in the break yesterday, he was far too deadpan/poker faced, giving his spiel about the wind. Didn't believe a word he said: it was a rehearsed/prepared answer (i.e., talking points in his head).

It's quite possible Lance was tipped off (nothing outlandish about that). OLD, really old, friends LOL (all the way back to juniors), and Columbia doesn't really have GC pretensions. So that is not far-fetched.

AGAINST:
But then if it were improvised on the road because the other sprinters' teams were not pulling the break back, Hincapie would have to have been talking with him. No one saw that. Doubt they could decide ahead of time they would attack on one curve, given wind was all over the place.

The rest, I don't know.
 
Jun 5, 2009
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conspiracy?

Just to add some fuel to the fire of conspiracy....

The reports from within the peloton are that it was Contador himself who let the gap open when the move went. Don't know if it was deliberate or if he just lacked the strength to follow, but you can draw you own conclusions on that.

It really put Astana in the driving seat for the TTT because they only used two riders going hard on Stage 3.The other contenders teams used more energy chasing. In Columbia's case, they traded their chance of a TTT win for the Cavendish win by burning their candles yesterday. And who could blame them?

The technical TTT was a great idea and thrilling to watch. Perhaps it could have been shorter though to keep things a bit closer. Especially since t's only stage 4.
 
Apr 8, 2009
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It's a bit simpler than that.

Columbia had all been at the front for some time and were clearly driving the train. Armstrong knew there was a turn coming up and made sure he was near the front, knowing the area, the winds and what the effect of Columbia would be. He was smart enough to be in the right place at the right time. He actually sprinted to get nearer the front just before the corner.

Now back to the grassy knoll
 

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