How likely is Tadej Pogačar to win both the Giro and the Tour this season?

[Vinther1991]

I voted 60-70 %, but after doing some calculations, it is probably a bit lower.
First we have to estimate the chance of him not being affected by crashes or illnesses to the extend that will hinder him from performing at his peak or close.
I looked at last years Tour, where 25 dnf'd out of 176 riders, this doesn't directly translate to Pogacar's situation, as some of these riders were outside time limit, pulled out because of poor shape/fatique while some might have completed despite having crashed so hard they couldn't compete at their best level. Pogacar is also better at handling and positioning than most, so lets say for every stage he competes, he has 169/170 chance of not being severely affected by crashes or illness.
That gives him (169/170)^21 = 88.35 % chance of getting through the giro without getting GC ruined by a crash or illness. Then there is the chance that he might be beaten by a stronger rider, I consider that unlikely, but lets give Thomas and anyone else 2 % chance combined to win over Pogacar on strength. Then he has 0.8835*0.98 = 86.58 % chance of winning the Giro. He has no race days between Giro and Tour, but he could crash badly during training, let's say there is a 1 % chance that happens, now he is down to 85.71 %. He likewise has an 88.35 % chance of not getting his Tour ruined by illness or crashes, that puts him at 0.8571*0.8835 = 75.73 %.
Then finally there is the big question, will he be strongest at the Tour with the Giro in the legs, and Vingegaard potentially recovered (how much?), and how good are Roglic, Evenepoel, Bernal, Hindley? I give him 65 % chance of being the strongest, so:
0.7573*0.65 = 49.22 %.
So I give him just short of 50 % chance of doing the double.

 

[Netserk]

I voted 60-70 %, but after doing some calculations, it is probably a bit lower.

You can change your vote if you want to. Up until the deadline at the start of the Giro.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Voted 70-80%. He wins the Giro if he doesn't crash hard, and I think he's just on another level compared to Roglic and Remco even with a Giro in his legs. Remember, he has not ridden too many races leading up to the Giro and chances are he will win that race more easily than any other GT in modern history. I also subscribe to the notion that he's even stronger right now.

So in short, I think Giro is around 90% and while I can see Remco, Roglic or Jonas win straight up in France, I believe Pogi is still a relatively big favorite. Had Jonas been healthy, this is obviously completely diff

 

[AmRacer]

Poggi has 99 % chance to win the Giro and 91 % chance to win the Tour.
90 % to win both.

 

[kn0s]

The more edgy question is if the double is even worth much if Jonas isn't there. Think I might remember it as "meh, fine" I know it's not fair, you can only race who is there, but without fierce competition, it's just not the same. Hoping that we get some nice racing and not more of this predictability and terrible crashes.

 

[Netserk]

We'll cross that bridge when we get there. I very much doubt that the Tour will be a walkover after the Giro.

 

[Salvarani]

85% for Giro.

50% for Tour.

Saying more on either is too much imo, because a lot can happen. He can get sick, he can crash, he can lose teammates... so saying more is a stretch imo.

I think that is realistic and accurate.

@tobydawq can you calculate what I should vote?

 

[Krzysztof_O]

85% for Giro.

50% for Tour.

Saying more on either is too much imo, because a lot can happen. He can get sick, he can crash, he can lose teammates... so saying more is a stretch imo.

I think that is realistic and accurate.

@tobydawq can you calculate what I should vote?

(40, 50]

 

[Cookster15]

The more edgy question is if the double is even worth much if Jonas isn't there. Think I might remember it as "meh, fine" I know it's not fair, you can only race who is there, but without fierce competition, it's just not the same. Hoping that we get some nice racing and not more of this predictability and terrible crashes.

Cycling is littered with such "what ifs" over the years, that is part of the sport.

The double was considered almost impossible in the modern era regardless who showed up. The fact nobody has done it for 26 years would seem to confirm this.

And surely Roglic with ample motivation after 2020 could be considered “fierce competition”? Or are we saying Roglic won't be at his best? Roglic @ 100% vs Pogacar @ 90%? I am not sure.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Cycling is littered with such "what ifs" over the years, that is part of the sport.

The double was considered almost impossible in the modern era regardless who showed up. The fact nobody has done it for 26 years would seem to confirm this.

And surely Roglic with ample motivation after 2020 could be considered “fierce competition”? Or are we saying Roglic won't be at his best? Roglic @ 100% vs Pogacar @ 90%? I am not sure.

Throw in Evenepoel, who'll likely have enough time for good preparations. The Tour should be interesting.

 

[Cookster15]

(40, 50]

Why so low? Especially for the Giro (40%)?

 

[Netserk]

Why so low? Especially for the Giro (40%)?

It's an interval. Between 40 % and 50 % that he will win both.

 

[Salvarani]

(40, 50]

Thank you!

 

[kn0s]

Cycling is littered with such "what ifs" over the years, that is part of the sport.

The double was considered almost impossible in the modern era regardless who showed up. The fact nobody has done it for 26 years would seem to confirm this.

And surely Roglic with ample motivation after 2020 could be considered “fierce competition”? Or are we saying Roglic won't be at his best? Roglic @ 100% vs Pogacar @ 90%? I am not sure.

I think/hope the racing will be fine at the tour. I'm not underestimating R and R, but if Pog does the double, I'm not sure it will be the same for me without Jonas. We are missing the changing of the crown.

Think we will see it from some posters here also, like we got quite a few here that discount two TdF because of a wrist and a few attacks from Roglic. Jonas not being there will have a similar effect I think. Not saying its necessarily right, but it seem to be the way it goes.

 

[Salvarani]

Why so low? Especially for the Giro (40%)?

I think it was based on him winning both according to the question and with the percentages I rated Pog has the chance to win them. Which @Krzysztof_O responded to. Giro 85% and Tour 50%.

Multiplying those together gets you that interval.

That he has a 40-50% to win both also isnt low in my opinion. Especially after the things that has happened this spring, because thats why I am at least giving him those percentages and arriving at that interval.

It is very possible he can do it, I dont think nobody doubts that if he has few problems, but it is still hard to deliver. I think you are overrating the probability if you vote higher, but that is just my opinion.

 

[lenric]

And surely Roglic with ample motivation after 2020 could be considered “fierce competition”? Or are we saying Roglic won't be at his best? Roglic @ 100% vs Pogacar @ 90%? I am not sure.

Maybe Roglic will be at 100% of his potential of today as a 35 year old.
For me, interesting question are how much has Roglic regressed as a cyclist (if anything)? How much has Pogacar improved since 2020? How far from 100% will Pogacar be after riding the giro?

I can see Pogacar having the yellow jersey in the first 2 weeks, but I have a harder time imagining him with it in the final one, which could be a defensive week for him.

But let's wait and see, it will be fun for sure

 

[proffate]

The more edgy question is if the double is even worth much if Jonas isn't there. Think I might remember it as "meh, fine" I know it's not fair, you can only race who is there, but without fierce competition, it's just not the same. Hoping that we get some nice racing and not more of this predictability and terrible crashes.

What madness is this, are you also going to put an asterisk next to every previous double because your personal favorite rider Vingegaard wasn't there at the time?

Until the recent ambiguity caused by the Itzulia crash, this was shaping up to be one of the most competitive TDFs of all time. How many former GT winners will still be there if Jonny boy stays home? G, Roglic, Remco, Bernal, Hindley, Kuss, S Yates, Froome (ha). Yea it sounds like a piece of cake to just walk all over this field with a Giro in the legs.

The fact that Pog will have the strongest team goes a long way to boosting his odds imo. I mean Ayuso and A Yates might have been two of his biggest competitors but now they'll just be his uber drivers.

 

[gregrowlerson]

30-40%.

Some people are not taking the chance of illness into account enough. Or Remco's potential. Or Vingegaard recovering enough to be a possible threat.

On Jonas, it certainly seems like he'll be a non factor at the moment, but cyclists are very determined folk and at times have incredible powers of recuperation. I remember when Contador crashed in the 2014 Tour.....the Vuelta was 'no chance' for quite some time. Granted, Vingegaard's injuries are more serious here, but still, there is more than two months until the start, you never know.

 

[Armchair cyclist]

Beauty of a poll like this is that everyone is right. The fact of an outcome does nothing to establish the likelihood of that outcome.

 

[Potomac]

What we really need is a a yes or no will he do the double.
That way we can show if we are cycling savants, or cycling idiots.

 

[Escarabajo]

What we really need is a a yes or no will he do the double.
That way we can show if we are cycling savants, or cycling idiots.

That poll already exists, but it was decided that it was not enough. So that's why this one was created!!
Lol.

 

[tobydawq]

85% for Giro.

50% for Tour.

Saying more on either is too much imo, because a lot can happen. He can get sick, he can crash, he can lose teammates... so saying more is a stretch imo.

I think that is realistic and accurate.

@tobydawq can you calculate what I should vote?

40-50% (sorry, I wasn't notified for some reason) if probabilities behave the same in Sweden as in Denmark.

 

[Tim Cahill]

I voted 60-70 %, but after doing some calculations, it is probably a bit lower.
First we have to estimate the chance of him not being affected by crashes or illnesses to the extend that will hinder him from performing at his peak or close.
I looked at last years Tour, where 25 dnf'd out of 176 riders, this doesn't directly translate to Pogacar's situation, as some of these riders were outside time limit, pulled out because of poor shape/fatique while some might have completed despite having crashed so hard they couldn't compete at their best level. Pogacar is also better at handling and positioning than most, so lets say for every stage he competes, he has 169/170 chance of not being severely affected by crashes or illness.
That gives him (169/170)^21 = 88.35 % chance of getting through the giro without getting GC ruined by a crash or illness. Then there is the chance that he might be beaten by a stronger rider, I consider that unlikely, but lets give Thomas and anyone else 2 % chance combined to win over Pogacar on strength. Then he has 0.8835*0.98 = 86.58 % chance of winning the Giro. He has no race days between Giro and Tour, but he could crash badly during training, let's say there is a 1 % chance that happens, now he is down to 85.71 %. He likewise has an 88.35 % chance of not getting his Tour ruined by illness or crashes, that puts him at 0.8571*0.8835 = 75.73 %.
Then finally there is the big question, will he be strongest at the Tour with the Giro in the legs, and Vingegaard potentially recovered (how much?), and how good are Roglic, Evenepoel, Bernal, Hindley? I give him 65 % chance of being the strongest, so:
0.7573*0.65 = 49.22 %.
So I give him just short of 50 % chance of doing the double.

And then when you add Kurt Angle to the mix, your chances of winning drastic go down.

 

[kingjr]

And then when you add Kurt Angle to the mix, your chances of winning drastic go down.

The numbers don't lie!

 

[Escarabajo]

Beauty of a poll like this is that everyone is right. The fact of an outcome does nothing to establish the likelihood of that outcome.

Well, we can do like in Engineering when estimating future numbers. More than 90% is proved or a yes and more than 50% and less than 90% is maybe and less than 50% is a No. Or we can do like they do in civil case and be as easy as saying than more than 50% is a yes and less than 50% is a No. In a criminal case I think is extreme (beyond a reasonable doubt) and we don't want to go that route.