1st rest day poll: who will win the Tour?

[AlexNYC]

Re: Re:

If this is indeed ordered according to the bookies, Adam Yates is a really good bet right now (although I don't think he'll win).

I consulted the Tour de France odds since the beggining of the year. At least till May he had more than a 1/70 reward. I didn't place any bet but considered him a favourite at the start. After the Arras-Roubaix stage, I see him able to gain more time in the mountains than he will lose in the time-trial to Froome. To N.Quintana he has an advantage of 1:08 and about 10-20 seconds more in the time-trial trial, which might be enough.

Agree, although I wouldn't assume Yates will be better than Quintana in the ITT.

 

[movingtarget]

Quintana's big opportunity but he has to be more aggressive than usual before the TT or he has has no hope. I'd like to see Movistar and others test Dumoulin and Froome every time the road climbs. At least Dan Martin will try something. Uran will probably follow wheels although he has time to make up. Yates is another one without a great TT who needs to be aggressive on the climbs. Maybe the biggest question mark is Nibali. The next two stages should provide some answers. I think Quintana can win if Movistar get their tactics right.

 

[Savant12]

Re:

Quintana. I believe in the Giro-fade. Nibali to be the closest challenger.

Froome could fade by Week 3. Thomas will crash somewhere and Nibali's voodoo will work against Quintana.

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

I thought Richie has the best chance to beat Froome. Now I’m not sure anyone can. I need to see it with my own eyes to believe it.

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

I thought Richie has the best chance to beat Froome. Now I’m not sure anyone can. I need to see it with my own eyes to believe it.

God knows what Porte is thinking now but it's good to see him planning to do the Vuelta.

 

[The Hegelian]

Another question: who is the big pretender?

i.e. of the myriad of podium contenders (Yates, Landa, Thomas et al), who is going to blow up big time somewhere and end up sneaking into the top 15, 30 mins down?

They all look a million dollars now. My tip: Thomas. Honorable mention: Roglic.

 

[Savant12]

Re:

Another question: who is the big pretender?

i.e. of the myriad of podium contenders (Yates, Landa, Thomas et al), who is going to blow up big time somewhere and end up sneaking into the top 15, 30 mins down?

They all look a million dollars now. My tip: Thomas. Honorable mention: Roglic.

Never a podium contender but Barguil always seems to come good in the mountains.

 

[SafeBet]

Re: Re:

I'm still backing Quintana here but an outsider could steal this Tour. Zakarin is in prime position after surviving the first week without losing much. Remember how strong he was in last year's Giro and Vuelta third weeks. He just needs to stay on his bike.

Zakarin wasn't even close the strongest rider in last week of either Giro or Vuelta last year.

He was the 3rd strongest rider in the third week of the Vuelta. The only riders gaining time on him were Contador and Froome (who actually lost time to Zakarin in the three MTF combined).

Giro is a bit harder to assess, since he was more than 4 minutes back at the beginning of the third week and was given some freedom in a couple of stages. Still, I'm pretty sure nobody gained time on him in the three mountain stages combined.

 

[bambino]

Re: Re:

I'm still backing Quintana here but an outsider could steal this Tour. Zakarin is in prime position after surviving the first week without losing much. Remember how strong he was in last year's Giro and Vuelta third weeks. He just needs to stay on his bike.

Zakarin wasn't even close the strongest rider in last week of either Giro or Vuelta last year.

He was the 3rd strongest rider in the third week of the Vuelta. The only riders gaining time on him were Contador and Froome (who actually lost time to Zakarin in the three MTF combined).

Giro is a bit harder to assess, since he was more than 4 minutes back at the beginning of the third week and was given some freedom in a couple of stages. Still, I'm pretty sure nobody gained time on him in the three mountain stages combined.

Nibs won 32 odd seconds on Zakarin in Giro last week. And yes there was TT, but as far as I can see... there is one in here as well.

Point being, Zakarin needs to be way ahead of main contenders coming to last week if he wants to win, because losing around 1 minute in the last week to 1-2 guys as he contantly has (though being among top 3 of last week) will not win him the Tour. You need just that one guy of being stronger...

 

[macbindle]

I think at this point if we've seen a lot of somebody so far it is probably a bad thing which is why I'm thinking Nibali might be the dark horse. He's been tucked away, saving energy. Contrast with Bardet who left it all out on the road several times.

The unknown quantity is the fatigue Froome is carrying from the Giro. We will find out this week possibly, but gut feeling is that he will again pocket this tour.