2011 prediction game

[Tuarts]

NEXT RACE: Giro di Lombardia

1.a) Intro:

Welcome to the CN-forums 2011 cycling pool! This time around, we'll start in Belgium at Gent - Wevelgem and finish with la classica delle foglie mortes, Giro di Lombardia! The aim of the game is to accumulate as many points as possible throughout the season by correctly predicting the winners of various events.

2.a) Schedule:

CN 2011 Season:

1day races:
Gent - Wevelgem - (Winner: Tom Boonen)
Ronde van Vlaanderen - (Winner: Nick Nuyens)
Paris - Roubaix - (Winner: Johan van Summeren)
Amstel Gold Race - (Winner: Phillipe Gilbert)
La Flèche Wallonne - (Winner: Phillipe Gilbert)
Liège - Bastogne - Liège - (Winner: Phillipe Gilbert)
Clasica Ciclista San Sebastian - San Sebastian - (Winner: Phillipe Gilbert)
Grand Prix Cycliste de Montréal - (Winner: Rui Costa)
Giro di Lombardia - (Winner: Oliver Zaugg)


Minor Tours:
Critérium du Dauphiné (Winner:Bradley Wiggins)
-Stage 3 (Winner:Tony Martin)
-Stage 6 (Winner:Joaquim Rodríguez)

Grand Tours:
Giro d'Italia (Winner: Alberto Contador)
-Stage 2 (Winner: Alessandro Petacchi)
-Stage 7 (Winner: Bert De Clercq)
-Stage 14 (Winner: Igor Antón)
-Stage 15 (Winner: Mikel Nieve)
-Stage 21 (Winner: David Millar)

Tour de France (Winner: Cadel Evans)
-Stage 5 (Winner: Mark Cavendish)
-Stage 8 (Winner: Rui Costa)
-Stage 12 (Winner: Samuel Sanchez)
-Stage 18 (Winner: Andy Schleck)
-Stage 19 (Winner: Pierre Rolland)

Vuelta a España (Winner: Juan Jose Cobo)
-Stage 2 (Winner: Chris Sutton)
-Stage 4 (Winner: Daniel Moreno)
-Stage 10 (Winner: Tony Martin)
-Stage 15 (Winner: Juan Jose Cobo)
-Stage 19 (Winner: Igor Anton)

World Championships Individual Time Trial (Winner:Tony Martin)
World Championships Road Race (Winner:Mark Cavendish)

2.b) Rider Selections: Final selections must be submitted no later than 24 hours before the start time of the current race. Selections are to be sent via Private Message on the forums to Tuarts.

3. Points and Rankings:

a) For each individual stage or single day classic:
- the participant must submit a prediction for the top 5 finishers. (ie: pick 5 riders)

Selections are to be sent (via private message to Tuarts) while adhering to the following format:
- riders: ( Rider 1, Rider 2, Rider 3, Rider 4, Rider 5 )


- 10 points are awarded for predicting the correct winner.
- 3 points are awarded for each correct rider in the top 5 finishers list. (Regardless of order)
- 3 additional points are awarded for each rider placed in the correct order.
- 30 additional points are awarded if all 5 riders are predicted (in the correct order).

b) For Stage Races:
Note:
For stage race/grand tour "jersey" selections, participants will get the opportunity to make "two" (2) selections for each category. IE: 2 choices for overall GC winner; 2 choices for overall KOM classification; 2 choices for overall Points classification; 2 choices for overall Young Rider classification.

- You will only pick one (1) team for the overall Team Classification.

Prior to the start of the stage race, the participant must:
- predict the overall GC winner: 15 points
- predict the final KOM winner: 10 points
- predict the final points winner: 10 points
- predict the final young rider: 10 points
- predict the best team: 8 points

c) For Grand Tours:
Prior to the start of the stage race, the participant must:
- predict the overall GC winner: 30 points
- predict the final KOM winner: 20 points
- predict the final points winner: 20 points
- predict the final young rider: 20 points
- predict the best team: 15 points


For stage races, specific stages will be targeted beforehand.

4. a) 2011 Rankings - FINAL:

b) Clarifications:
- Points leader = Yellow Jersey
- Win leader = Green Jersey
- Streak leader = polka dot jersey

- A Win point is awarded to a participant if he correctly predicts the winner of a stage/event/race.
- A Streak point is awarded for each race in which a participant scores more than 9 race points

5. Registration:

This game is open to anyone and at any time, allowing those who wish to participate and have come late a chance to still play. Obviously the greater advantage is in getting in predictions for every race.

Good luck to everyone!

 

[Tuarts]

PREDICTIONS

COMPLETE POINTS TABLE

Vuelta RESULTS: http://www.megaupload.com/?d=8W522EIU

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

I'm in

cobblestones suggested a joker card (only applicable in stage races). I like the idea, as long as points are rewarded with an equals balance to total points.

for example, you pick a rider in a stage race (your joker card).
and every stage will have 1st (points) 2nd (4 points) 3rd (3 points) 4th (2 points) 5th (1 point). So if there is a stage race with -for example- 4 stages, and John Doe gets a 3rd, 9th, 4th and 2nd , you would get; 3 + 0 + 2 + 4 = 9 added to your balance. Will make the non-selected stages fun to track.

The points system worked last time, maybe the amount of points rewarded could be changed but that really is up to you .

 

[ingsve]

One additional rule that could help spread out the selections a bit is a bonus if you pick a surprise rider in the top 5. What I mean is that if you correctly predict the finishing place in the top 5 of a rider that no one else has picked for that race then you get a bonus of say 5 or 10 points. This means that people will tend to gamble a little more with some of their picks so that we don't have as many people choosing the same riders all the time. If we get a lot of people entering then the bonus could be even higher since it would be a lot less likely to pick someone that no one else has thought of.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

One additional rule that could help spread out the selections a bit is a bonus if you pick a surprise rider in the top 5. What I mean is that if you correctly predict the finishing place in the top 5 of a rider that no one else has picked for that race then you get a bonus of say 5 or 10 points. This means that people will tend to gamble a little more with some of their picks so that we don't have as many people choosing the same riders all the time. If we get a lot of people entering then the bonus could be even higher since it would be a lot less likely to pick someone that no one else has thought of.

Basically if your the only person to get a certain rider in say... 4th place? you get bonus points? isn't the beauty of going for a long shot tho, that no one else will have it, and thus already you're rewarded.

I also like the idea of having just 1 pick (rather then 2) as it should make the game harder. I understand it can suck if your rider crashes out, but then maybe we can have a reserve leader (for classifications) that will only come into play if the rider does in face retire from the race.

 

[ingsve]

Basically if your the only person to get a certain rider in say... 4th place? you get bonus points? isn't the beauty of going for a long shot tho, that no one else will have it, and thus already you're rewarded.

Well, it's very hard to get someone exactly right so there isn't a huge incentive to gamble with your picks. What we saw last time was that it's generally a good idea to pick high probability contenders rather than gambling so people had a lot of the same riders only in different positions. The game was won more on being lucky or skilled enough to pick the correct winner or place rather than outwitting everyone else.

 

[Eric8-A]

Interested

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Well, it's very hard to get someone exactly right so there isn't a huge incentive to gamble with your picks. What we saw last time was that it's generally a good idea to pick high probability contenders rather than gambling so people had a lot of the same riders only in different positions. The game was won more on being lucky or skilled enough to pick the correct winner or place rather than outwitting everyone else.

I suspect it will still be won the same way tho.

I have nothing against giving bonus points for a unique guess tho, whatever tuarts wants .

 

[ingsve]

I suspect it will still be won the same way tho.

I have nothing against giving bonus points for a unique guess tho, whatever tuarts wants .

Ya, I think so as well. I just thought it could be an interesting added flavor to the game.

 

[the asian]

Interesting. Since I missed the CQ ranking game, I'll enter at least this one.

 

[skidmark]

I'm in.

Bonus points for unique picks would be something I'm into for one-day races or stages (ie. the ones where you pick 5), although maybe it could be x amount of bonus points if you correctly predict the winner uniquely, and x/2 amount of bonus points if you correctly predict the placing of rider 2-5 uniquely. There shouldn't be as much reward for correctly picking 4th place as the winner, is my thought.

Although if we do the 'joker' idea, that might be even better.

 

[Eric8-A]

So do we give our predictions to Tuarts or to Merckx?

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Sounds great - count me in!

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

So do we give our predictions to Tuarts or to Merckx?

Tuarts.

Re: skidmark/ingsve unique pick. I like the x aspect.

 

[Tuarts]

I'm not in favour of extra points for unique picks. As they're uniques, if they do well you're going to be at an advantage anyway. I also don't want to change the game much because from the sounds of it, its simplicity was its success last time. However if the majority want it, I'll implement it. Same with the joker.

Now please refer to opening thread, changes have been made including a calendar - events have been chosen based mainly on prestige + not overlapping with anything else, I can add either the Tour of Poland or Eneco Tour if people wish, just before the Vuelta. As MSR is too soon, we'll start from G-W.

 

[flyor64]

I'm in for both.

Team is what I built for the warm-up...thinking of changing before the weekend. Is that possible?

 

[Cobblestoned]

Ok, now finally something happened.

I found this "coincidental" Merckx appearance strange few weeks ago and I still do. Now he decided not do it and we are left in a hurry shortly before M-SR.
But ok, this guy has huge bonus for doing it 2 years ago, so we just leave that....
Just offering my honest and open thoughts, like always.
I was thinking about putting something up (with all stages (enough enthusiastic people who like that) and nearly all stageraces + joker), already worked on it.
We could have had a nice testrun at P-N and T-A.

It was an idea based on "everyone can help and do something".
Based on trust and commitment, so no one has to offer his whole freetime to do it + with many, nearly all chances to predict daily races.
Number of participiants wouldn't matter too, if we do it this way.
No need for sending predictions per PM - open predicting. People predicting tactically or just copying lose anyway in most cases.
It would be better to send predictions perPM of course, but then the work is up to few people, or even 1 person.
If everyone can work on it, it would be a proof that we can work together like a peloton. And there is no danger that this thing stucks or stops at some point. There just have to be clear rules and proceedings.
He who messes up the game or cheats is out, better out of forum.

We might also need some help of an admin to structure it a little bit and do some permissions, if thats possible. Perhaps little subforum or subthreads, 1 thread with rules, races (final predictions in it) scoreboard/leaderboard, 1 for placing predictions, 1 for talk regarding game.
Perhaps it is even possible to hide the other predictions till race has started.


But then I left it, thought ok, this guy will come back and do it.

If tuarts does it now, thats also fine for me and I will participate.
Generally my impression is that people want more (stages+stageraces) and some love the joker-idea.
As I said, I can still deliver the whole frame and scoring etc. even now.

I don't want to start a revolt or something now. Perhaps we can even have 2 games.

If the decision isn't already made, we should have one now.
This not just about me, btw. I only mean it nice.
But I need the whole package of predicting and want to know who is CN's official hardcore Mr.Predictor at end of season. We might also have some GT-winners etc.
I also don't like that 24 hour thing. Neutral start should be dead-end, because many people suck up information till last moment, before they place their prediction. This crazyness has to be honoured.
It is clear that we have to limit the number of participants, if 1 guy does whole work on his own.
It can be 10 participants - or 50 at some point. We don't know.

Thoughts ?

 

[Tuarts]

Ok, now finally something happened.

I found this "coincidental" Merckx appearance strange few weeks ago and I still do. Now he decided not do it and we are left in a hurry shortly before M-SR.
But ok, this guy has huge bonus for doing it 2 years ago, so we just leave that....
Just offering my honest and open thoughts, like always.
I was thinking about putting something up (with all stages (enough enthusiastic people who like that) and nearly all stageraces + joker), already worked on it.
We could have had a nice testrun at P-N and T-A.

It was an idea based on "everyone can help and do something".
Based on trust and commitment, so no one has to offer his whole freetime to do it + with many, nearly all chances to predict daily races.
Number of participiants wouldn't matter too, if we do it this way.
No need for sending predictions per PM - open predicting. People predicting tactically or just copying lose anyway in most cases.
It would be better to send predictions perPM of course, but then the work is up to few people, or even 1 person.
If everyone can work on it, it would be a proof that we can work together like a peloton. And there is no danger that this thing stucks or stops at some point. There just have to be clear rules and proceedings.
He who messes up the game or cheats is out, better out of forum.

We might also need some help of an admin to structure it a little bit and do some permissions, if thats possible. Perhaps little subforum or subthreads, 1 thread with rules, races (final predictions in it) scoreboard/leaderboard, 1 for placing predictions, 1 for talk regarding game.
Perhaps it is even possible to hide the other predictions till race has started.


But then I left it, thought ok, this guy will come back and do it.

If tuarts does it now, thats also fine for me and I will participate.
Generally my impression is that people want more (stages+stageraces) and some love the joker-idea.
As I said, I can still deliver the whole frame and scoring etc. even now.

I don't want to start a revolt or something now. Perhaps we can even have 2 games.

If the decision isn't already made, we should have one now.
This not just about me, btw. I only mean it nice.
But I need the whole package of predicting and want to know who is CN's official hardcore Mr.Predictor at end of season. We might also have some GT-winners etc.
I also don't like that 24 hour thing. Neutral start should be dead-end, because many people suck up information till last moment, before they place their prediction. This crazyness has to be honoured.
It is clear that we have to limit the number of participants, if 1 guy does whole work on his own.
It can be 10 participants - or 50 at some point. We don't know.

Thoughts ?

This is just a simple prediction game, don't think we need to go and branch it into some sub-forum mega-prediciton thing though. There's enough "games" already though, be careful aout saturation. If that's what you want to do go for it, although its middle of March so a lot of racing is already underway.

As there hasn't been too many yays or nays about the changes proposed I'm going to leave it as is.

Only future changes will be to:
Point Structure
Deadline
Calendar

And I wish to have them finalised before G-W.

Anyway I declare this open if people wish to send in their predictions for G-W.

 

[Havetts]

Im in for it. I'll send it soon .

 

[Merckx]

Ok, now finally something happened.

I found this "coincidental" Merckx appearance strange few weeks ago and I still do. Now he decided not do it and we are left in a hurry shortly before M-SR.
But ok, this guy has huge bonus for doing it 2 years ago, so we just leave that....
Just offering my honest and open thoughts, like always.
I was thinking about putting something up (with all stages (enough enthusiastic people who like that) and nearly all stageraces + joker), already worked on it.
We could have had a nice testrun at P-N and T-A.

Thoughts ?

I'm not sure why my appearance in the thread a few weeks ago could be qualified as "strange" or "coincidental". Just because I haven't posted on the website in a while, doesn't mean I don't read the threads. I happened to see my thread for the first time in about two years and was hit with a bit of nostalgia.

In any case, the reason I had to rethink my involvement is because the amount of time required to run such a game proved to be way too much the last time around. With my own race season picking up (not to mention having to work full time), there’s no way I could invest enough energy and time to run this game properly.

That being said, I’d like to participate in this one - and perhaps even offer some help.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

yeah keep the rules simple.

I might suggest a few more stage races tho; Basque, Romandie, Eneco... maybe even Poland?

 

[Tuarts]

More races is fine but I don't want to overload myself or anyone else who comes in to take over if I get too busy later in the year. I can see why Mercx only had the Dauphine because it doesn't clash with anything else (and is a good race in itself). As I said before I could fit Eneco or Pologne in if people wish but its one or the other.

 

[ansimi]

Hmm, I'm working on my team now.

It's hard to know who will even be in GW let alone who'll be in it to win it. It makes it a little less fun because I end up picking some less interesting riders than I might if it were just for the one race.

They've got the rider's list pretty up-to-date on who's scheduled for both races though.

I think they've fixed the scoring that gave Van Avermaet more points than the guy who actually won the race.

I missed out on the CQ game here

 

[Tuarts]

There are a lot of nuggets out there for low cost. I just hope I haven't missed any that will leave me going :doh: at the end of the race.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Just entered, hoping not to be on the bottom.