2011 Tour de France, Stage 12: Cugnaux - Luz-Ardiden, 209 km

[auscyclefan94]

seriously?
he won TA less then a week ago, please don't suggest he wasn't in good form at all.

And yes I agree with different climbs, but evans has had similar form in the first 10 days at this tour to what he showed at TA. This suggest to me he will again fail in the mountains.

anyway LL and scarponi have beaten cadel in big races before, why the surprise?
--
also what youngest said.

He wasn't on that greater form to what you may like to think. It was pretty much his first race for the year.

Levi Leipheimer and Scarponi...seriously!

 

[greenedge]

Judgement day for Cadel on this stage. How much time will he lose,what group will he fall back in and will Contador/ Shleck surprise the other.

On a more serious note of the GC contenders fallen ( OUT ) who do we think would have beaten Cadel. In order.
JVDB ( tired from working for Gilbert but a big chance for podium even though he lost time on stage 8 which might have been a sign he was worsening.
Wiggins. who might have hit his peak at the Dauphinie and struggles on mountains.
Brakjovic. Young( ish ) who has never raced a GT to win but is impressive.
Horner who did pwn the ToC "the best race in the world after the TDF" but was 39.
And of course Vino who we all would have wanted to see in yellow but realistically he would have been too tired after gaining it and maybe too old.

Gesink even i admit would have beaten Cadel but Cadel won in T-A when Gesink was in top form so maybe ( was ) iffy.
Kloden sore and maybe too old but in good form.
Leipheimer. The most hated ( CURRENT [i don't mind either way] )racer on this forum
Contador. We know he would have beaten Cadel in top form but he contested Giro and looked to lack form anyways, probably frantically tying to get back to 09/ Giro form. Now is hurt by the knee injury.

Men who are realistically contesting FTW ( NOW ) are Contador, Shlecks', Evans and Basso. Gesink and Kloden might recover.

Let the mountains begin.

 

[Woody22]

Unfortunately I think Contador will punish everyone tomorrow, the Schleck brothers included. Boy I hope I'm wrong, but he looked a lot better to me during yesterdays stage.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

I dont think his form was great in TA. It was his first race of the year. He won a hilly sprint which doesnt say much about his form and he did an average TT.

depends how you train and it wasn't his first race. he did strade. And if anything he would have rode him self into form at TA and then by logic should have been better at the next race he completed

He definitely had good form there, unless of course this season he has just made amazing progression (at his young age too!) and is so much better then a strong scarponi etc

@lol LL... I remember him riding away from cadel @ the 07 tour in the mountains... hmmm, maybe I imagined it. Apparently cadel in his best mountain years.

Has cadel ever come close to winning a real col in a GT?

 

[El Pistolero]

VDB didn't work for Gilbert.

 

[sultanofhyd]

do you have to make fun of me because im a cadel fanboy. you are a pretty big contador fanboy yourself.

I did not make fun of you at all, sorry if I came across like that.

My point was that Cadel not getting caught up so far is more luck than anything else, he so easily could have lost time when he got a puncture on the Mur de Bretagne stage.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

And if Contador was there he'd have won by an hour. If if if. It always comes to this

The fact that he lost to Carlos Sastre says it all to me.

+1

Frank boy and andy had numbers against ac @ 09 and he creamed them.
Cadel excuses are great.
And lol yeah he is more dedicated and has a team behind him, that will turn him into a top tier climber.

 

[dlwssonic]

depends how you train and it wasn't his first race. he did strade. And if anything he would have rode him self into form at TA and then by logic should have been better at the next race he completed

He definitely had good form there, unless of course this season he has just made amazing progression (at his young age too!) and is so much better then a strong scarponi etc

@lol LL... I remember him riding away from cadel @ the 07 tour in the mountains... hmmm, maybe I imagined it. Apparently cadel in his best mountain year.

Has cadel ever come close to winning a real col in a GT?

It was a hilly course with an uphill sprint. cadel is stronger than scarponi in that terrain and he didnt need great form to win. anyway you cant compare his performance in catalunya to how he will do in the mountains of the le tour.

 

[greenedge]

Cadel did not really race that Giro in 10 to win i think everyone acknowledges. I think he had the TDF in mind as well as getting BMC into it.Scarponi was in the best form of his life in my view in Milan San Remo ( timeslot ). Maybe it seems like that to me after Contador's domination of the Giro but yeah. Scarponi has not versed Cadel in many other races as he realised his potential a bit late compared to Nibali's/ Contador's just like Cadel. Also Scarponi is not at the TDF either. Levi has only beat Cadel in GT's i think in 05 TDF where it was Cadel's 1st and he had a split team and in 10 where he had a hairline fracture. Catalunya was preperation for the Ardenees as well. Which he has won F-W so was a good season goal.

 

[dlwssonic]

I did not make fun of you at all, sorry if I came across like that.

My point was that Cadel not getting caught up so far is more luck than anything else, he so easily could have lost time when he got a puncture on the Mur de Bretagne stage.

oops sorry my bad. That would have been unlikely he wasnt very far away from the peloton.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

It was a hilly course with an uphill sprint. cadel is stronger than scarponi in that terrain and he didnt need great form to win. anyway you cant compare his performance in catalunya to how he will do in the mountains of the le tour.

you can't be that ignorant right?
You do need very good form to win ta, this isn't a simple warm up race.
And you must not know scarponi very well, because he is very good on those finishes, it is a shame scarponi doesn't put more emphasis on the classics because he is a rider who could do super there.

I am not only comparing catalunya lol, I am comparing his entire career in the mountains. He simply doesn't have it.

 

[greenedge]

VDB didn't work for Gilbert.

Yeah stage one/ 4. He was doing work and he would have been today as well. Not so much to kill him but yeah.

 

[theyoungest]

Cadel did not really race that Giro in 10 to win i think everyone acknowledges. I think he had the TDF in mind as well as getting BMC into it.

What Giro have you been watching? Cadel definitely raced to win it (and I admire him for that)

Yeah stage one/ 4. He was doing work and he would have been today as well. Not so much to kill him but yeah.

That's not VDB, but his lookalike Vanendert.

 

[dlwssonic]

you can't be that ignorant right?
You do need very good form to win ta, this isn't a simple warm up race.
And you must not know scarponi very well, because he is very good on those finishes, it is a shame scarponi doesn't put more emphasis on the classics because he is a rider who could do super there.

I am not only comparing catalunya lol, I am comparing his entire career in the mountains. He simply doesn't have it.

But on a hilly sprint, he doesnt have a chance to beat cadel.

 

[greenedge]

Cadel did beat Scarponi on the Zoncalan. What do you attribute that to. Cadel is not a bad climber he's just not great evaluate when the stage comes. Scarponi is great at classics, next yr MSR should be a real target for him.

 

[El Pistolero]

Yeah stage one/ 4. He was doing work and he would have been today as well. Not so much to kill him but yeah.

No, that was an attack from him and for him actually. Gilbert just made a mistake in following it.

 

[niidirull]

14th July you say?
Moncoutie to repeat his 2005 Bastille Day victory from a breakaway.

As for the GC contenders i do feel that Contador will show that he is the best in terms of climbing.

 

[just some guy]

Cadel did not really race that Giro in 10 to win i think everyone acknowledges. I think he had the TDF in mind as well as getting BMC into it.Scarponi was in the best form of his life in my view in Milan San Remo ( timeslot ). Maybe it seems like that to me after Contador's domination of the Giro but yeah. Scarponi has not versed Cadel in many other races as he realised his potential a bit late compared to Nibali's/ Contador's just like Cadel. Also Scarponi is not at the TDF either. Levi has only beat Cadel in GT's i think in 05 TDF where it was Cadel's 1st and he had a split team and in 10 where he had a hairline fracture. Catalunya was preperation for the Ardenees as well. Which he has won F-W so was a good season goal.

What drugs are you on - send me a pound. Of course he raced to win.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Cadel did beat Scarponi on the Zoncalan. What do you attribute that to. Cadel is not a bad climber he's just not great evaluate when the stage comes. Scarponi is great at classics, next yr MSR should be a real target for him.

Scarponi I don't even rate that highly in the high mountains (don't get me wrong he is good, but not a top tier imo), he is probably at a similar level to evans overall imo. But ACF makes it seem like scarponi beating him in a mtf is a lol moment.

and again agree with youngest, cadel rode for the win at the giro.

 

[dlwssonic]

cadel always races for the win unlike the schlecks. thats why he is such a great rider.

 

[Cimber]

just read some rider statements regarding the weather, and Contador likes it rainy (maybe not so much with his knee) while Andy doesnt. Tt seems to be sunny tomorrow.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

cadel always races for the win unlike the schlecks. thats why he is such a great rider.

no doubt, it is a great attribute. He has heart, that isn't the point tho. (although frank isn't that bad).

He might be a brilliant all rounder rider, and has great determination but that doesn't mean he is a great climber in the high mountains. History is against him. It is unlikely he is going to suddenly turn into some awesome climber imo.

 

[dlwssonic]

no doubt, it is a great attribute. He has heart, that isn't the point tho. (although frank isn't that bad).

He might be a brilliant all rounder rider, and has great determination but that doesn't mean he is a great climber in the high mountains. History is against him. It is unlikely he is going to suddenly turn into some awesome climber imo.

I do admit he isnt such a great climber and there are a few that on paper are stronger than him. However something tells me that he is in the form of his life he has really looked strong in the first week. I hope he shines tomorrow.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

I do admit he isnt such a great climber and there are a few that on paper are stronger than him. However something tells me that he is in the form of his life he has really looked strong in the first week. I hope he shines tomorrow.

cadel actually tends to get worse as a Gt progresses. Often he struggles in 3rd week.

Anyway form is fine and dandy, but I don't see in translating into sudden climnbing ability. Cavendish on form of his life isn't going to own in the mountains either (ok not a fair example, but maybe you understand what I am saying..)

Just for the record it isn't like I am writing cadel off completely, I suspect he will get podium still as he has a tendency to grind out a good result.

I just can't see him not losing much time to have a chance, no way imo.

 

[dlwssonic]

I think he will be slightly dissapointed with a podium, but it would be a very good result for him. I would like to see him win the vuelta. a 2nd stage win in this years tdf will make him real happy.