- Dec 30, 2011
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2012 Giro d'Italia; May 19th; Stage 14: Cherasco - Cervinia(205km):
"The first mountains stage"
This stage is the first stage for the GC contenders to really show off their brawn and they certainly have an opportunity with 2 succesive climbs, both long and pretty hard. In short: this is when the Giro properly starts.
This stage starts off with 140 flat kilometres bringing the peloton from Cherasco into the Alps and to the foot of the first climb, the Col de Joux. It is 22 kilometres in length with an average gradient of 5.6%, this climb Joux starts off what is an undobutebly going to be a truly unbelievable spectacle. Its steepest section are at the bottom of the climb, and this will be the first proper climb this Giro has ridden.
The Col de Joux then flattens out around two-thirds of the way up, before it becomes even steeper close to the summit. Indeed as there is no flat between this climb and the Cervinia this climb is the ideal springboard for any attacks.
Last time the race visited these parts, the race tackled the Col Saint Pantaleon rather than the Joux beforehand, yet even so Ivan Gotti attacked on the penultimate climb and rode on to victory and eventual Giro victory as well.
The road to Cervinia climbs for 27 kilometres, . It is a commom Alp climb in that it has a very steady gradient not too steep yet not light either, and of course it is long. This means that it will most likely feature a stong team in all likelihood Liquigas bossing it and setting a steady tempo.
Riders like Gadret and Rujano who have lost time in the early exchanges may want to attack here yet it favors a more tempo approach, yet as we saw last year with Contador on Etna if you are stong enough then the gradient is irrelevant.
Here is a preview: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vdtAo9cbz9o
In my opinion this stage is going to be decided by what is left of the peloton, this means that outsiders like Nieve, Dupont and even Rodriguez will not get a proper chance to go for the stage.
This is as Liquigas has totally dominated the proceedings in the peloton and I dont see that changing tomorow. As they have what is certainly the strongest climbing squad in the Giro along with a GC rider who has proven his worth at winning Gts they are certain to drag the peloton up the final climb and as the gradient is not steep this may result in attacks by the stronger Italian riders going awry. Indeed the Liquigas squad have demonstrated their prowess with Eros Cappechi and Damiano Caruso both looking strong on previous uphill finishes, but one rider who will certainly be at the front of the peloton on Cervinia is Slywester Szymd and his tempo riding will dictate the climb and the stage.
The final climb is certainly long enough though to create some real gaps and thus time gaps which will decide GC. The tempo riders specifically Basso and Kreuziger should be in their elements though and towards the top of this climb they may start to ramp things up in an attempt to rid the group of weaker riders and this very well may put Ryder Hesjedal who is 2nd in GC in difficulty.
I see the stage finishing with a group of maximum 5 riders, yet I would not be surprised to see riders like Scarponi and Basso ride off in a group of 2 or 3 and tbh that is probably the more likely scenario. Indeed the time gaps will not be as significant as those that will appear in the Dolomites as the climb is not steep or irregular enough to totally blow riders in most cases, yet this stage will see some GC riders getting a firm advantage when it comes to the psychological battle which is played out between the contenders and if you lose time here you will certainly be on the ropes come Sunday and the steeper climbs which accompany it.
Expert Views:
Bergonzi says: “So now we’re really into it. Whilst it’s conceivable that the guy in pink today isn’t a potential winner, whoever has it tomorrow almost certainly will be. Ivan Gotti rode away here in 1997, and went on to win the Giro overall. The winner today will be somebody similar, a genuine climber, and I wouldn’t be surprised if history repeats itself.”
Luca Guericilana: "Both Joux and Cervinia are typical Alpine climbs-not that steep but long and regular. It's the first big mountain day and it's important that the GC guys dont get left along here."
Favorites:
Scarponi: Has the experience and was very impressive on stage 7 yet conversley he was disappointing on Stage 8. This type of climb seems to suit him and riders' with stronger teams, like Scarponi, will probably have an advantage. It is important he proves to all he is capable of defending his "title" and this is his chance and stage to prove it.
Basso: Was doubtful concerning his participation in this Giro, yet he has struck all the right chords so far and with the incredible strength of his team, he will certainly be delivered to the finish by his domestiques, particularly Slywester Szymd. This climb with its regular gradients seemingly suits him, yet can his climbing have improved so rapidly whilst he was looking relatively disappointing in Romandie?
Rujano: Imo he has had a reasonably good Giro considering he is not out of contention just yet, and his certainly up there in terms of his climbing indeed most people would consider the most talented climber in this field. Yet it may be difficult to attack with a super strong Liquigas team on his wheels.
Kreuziger: Has had a steady start to this Giro with a reasonably impressive prologue and he has consistently finished in the front group. His climb in the high mountains has never been spectactular yet this stage was the stage which he himself targeted befor the Giro as the final climb does not have dramatic changes in Gradient which he struggles to adapt to. He looked strong in Romandie and TA but there still remain question marks over his ability when it comes to the proper tough stuff.
Pozzovivo: He has been in dazzling form with a dominating climbing display at Trentino and a very impressive attack on stage 6 which led to a stage win and he also gained time on other contenders which puts him in a good position GC wise, certainly a talented climber but he is required to be consistent if he wants to deliever the goods and his tactics against the stronger Liquigas and Lampre teams on this climb will have to be spot on.
Schleck: He was impressive on stage 7 yet lost invaluable time over the past week and a rather unsavoury spat with Alex Rasmussen has certainly not furthered his cause. Imo he is certainly capable in mixing with any of the climbers in this Giro but question marks remain over his climbing considering that he was informed so late about his participation in Italy. He may be good coming into the last week, in the Dolomites, but will he be strong enough on this stage?
Rodriguez: Will be over the moon with how the Giro has gone so far for himself. 2 time trials out of the way and he is leading the Giro thanks to his trademark uphill sprints. His uphill sprinting does not tell us that much about his form as he was impressive in that forte in the Vuelta yet he was disappointing when it came to the high mountains. Also he would have had a long peak considering that he was aiming to be primarily in top form for the Ardennes with his FW win. This particular stage doesnt necessarily suit him as he generally prefers the steeper stuff, so imo he will be happy just to wheelsuck the Liquigas train up to the top and hope opportunits like Gadret, Rujano and Pozzovivo havent taken his jersey away.
Gadret: His team desperately requires a win and he is the most likely man to deliver it. last year he was a bit underestimated originally and so he could get away for a win on stage11 but this year he will be certainly marked, even considering he has already lost a bit of time as people know he has made the Giro the basis for his entire season.
Other favorites: Hesjedal, Tiralongo, Dupont, Uran, Cunego, Szymd, Nieve.
GC:
RODRIGUEZ OLIVER Joaquin KAT
2. HESJEDAL Ryder GRM 00:00:17
3. CASAR Sandy FDJ 00:00:26
4. TIRALONGO Paolo AST 00:00:32
5. SANTAROMITA Ivan BMC 00:00:49
6. KREUZIGER Roman AST 00:00:52
7. INTXAUSTI ELORRIAGA Benat MOV 00:00:52
8. BASSO Ivan LIQ 00:00:57
9. CARUSO Damiano LIQ 00:01:02
10. CATALDO Dario OPQ 00:01:03
11. CAPECCHI Eros LIQ 00:01:09
12. URAN Rigoberto SKY 00:01:10
13. SCARPONI Michele LAM 00:01:11
14. POZZOVIVO Domenico COG 00:01:12
15. HENAO MONTOYA Sergio SKY 00:01:27
16. CUNEGO Damiano LAM 00:01:37
17. HUZARSKI Bartosz APP 00:01:48
18. PARDILLA BELLON Sergio MOV 00:01:51
19. SZMYD Sylvester LIQ 00:01:53
20. TSCHOPP Johann BMC 00:02:02
21. STETINA Peter GRM 00:02:03
22. DE GENDT Thomas VCD 00:02:05
23. VISCONTI Giovanni MOV 00:02:06
24. PINOTTI Marco BMC 00:02:09
25. SCHLECK Frank RNT 00:02:11
26. VANDEVELDE Christian GRM 00:02:11
27. MORENO FERNANDEZ Daniel KAT 00:02:16
28. PAUWELS Serge OPQ 00:02:28
29. SLAGTER Tom Jelte RAB 00:02:43
30. BRUSEGHIN Marzio MOV 00:02:47
31. GADRET John ALM 00:02:55
32. BRAMBILLA Gianluca COG 00:02:58
33. LARSSON Gustav Erik VCD 00:03:03
34. RUJANO GUILLEN José AND 00:03:05
35. GARATE Juan Manuel RAB 00:03:08
36. SEELDRAYERS Kevin AST 00:03:08
37. NIEVE ITURALDE Mikel EUS 00:03:35
38. DE CLERCQ Bart LTB 00:03:45
39. RODRIGUEZ Jackson AND 00:03:45
40. DE GREEF Francis LTB 00:04:10
41. LAGUTIN Sergey VCD 00:04:10
"The first mountains stage"
This stage is the first stage for the GC contenders to really show off their brawn and they certainly have an opportunity with 2 succesive climbs, both long and pretty hard. In short: this is when the Giro properly starts.
This stage starts off with 140 flat kilometres bringing the peloton from Cherasco into the Alps and to the foot of the first climb, the Col de Joux. It is 22 kilometres in length with an average gradient of 5.6%, this climb Joux starts off what is an undobutebly going to be a truly unbelievable spectacle. Its steepest section are at the bottom of the climb, and this will be the first proper climb this Giro has ridden.
The Col de Joux then flattens out around two-thirds of the way up, before it becomes even steeper close to the summit. Indeed as there is no flat between this climb and the Cervinia this climb is the ideal springboard for any attacks.
Last time the race visited these parts, the race tackled the Col Saint Pantaleon rather than the Joux beforehand, yet even so Ivan Gotti attacked on the penultimate climb and rode on to victory and eventual Giro victory as well.
The road to Cervinia climbs for 27 kilometres, . It is a commom Alp climb in that it has a very steady gradient not too steep yet not light either, and of course it is long. This means that it will most likely feature a stong team in all likelihood Liquigas bossing it and setting a steady tempo.
Riders like Gadret and Rujano who have lost time in the early exchanges may want to attack here yet it favors a more tempo approach, yet as we saw last year with Contador on Etna if you are stong enough then the gradient is irrelevant.
Here is a preview: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vdtAo9cbz9o
In my opinion this stage is going to be decided by what is left of the peloton, this means that outsiders like Nieve, Dupont and even Rodriguez will not get a proper chance to go for the stage.
This is as Liquigas has totally dominated the proceedings in the peloton and I dont see that changing tomorow. As they have what is certainly the strongest climbing squad in the Giro along with a GC rider who has proven his worth at winning Gts they are certain to drag the peloton up the final climb and as the gradient is not steep this may result in attacks by the stronger Italian riders going awry. Indeed the Liquigas squad have demonstrated their prowess with Eros Cappechi and Damiano Caruso both looking strong on previous uphill finishes, but one rider who will certainly be at the front of the peloton on Cervinia is Slywester Szymd and his tempo riding will dictate the climb and the stage.
The final climb is certainly long enough though to create some real gaps and thus time gaps which will decide GC. The tempo riders specifically Basso and Kreuziger should be in their elements though and towards the top of this climb they may start to ramp things up in an attempt to rid the group of weaker riders and this very well may put Ryder Hesjedal who is 2nd in GC in difficulty.
I see the stage finishing with a group of maximum 5 riders, yet I would not be surprised to see riders like Scarponi and Basso ride off in a group of 2 or 3 and tbh that is probably the more likely scenario. Indeed the time gaps will not be as significant as those that will appear in the Dolomites as the climb is not steep or irregular enough to totally blow riders in most cases, yet this stage will see some GC riders getting a firm advantage when it comes to the psychological battle which is played out between the contenders and if you lose time here you will certainly be on the ropes come Sunday and the steeper climbs which accompany it.
Expert Views:
Bergonzi says: “So now we’re really into it. Whilst it’s conceivable that the guy in pink today isn’t a potential winner, whoever has it tomorrow almost certainly will be. Ivan Gotti rode away here in 1997, and went on to win the Giro overall. The winner today will be somebody similar, a genuine climber, and I wouldn’t be surprised if history repeats itself.”
Luca Guericilana: "Both Joux and Cervinia are typical Alpine climbs-not that steep but long and regular. It's the first big mountain day and it's important that the GC guys dont get left along here."
Favorites:
Scarponi: Has the experience and was very impressive on stage 7 yet conversley he was disappointing on Stage 8. This type of climb seems to suit him and riders' with stronger teams, like Scarponi, will probably have an advantage. It is important he proves to all he is capable of defending his "title" and this is his chance and stage to prove it.
Basso: Was doubtful concerning his participation in this Giro, yet he has struck all the right chords so far and with the incredible strength of his team, he will certainly be delivered to the finish by his domestiques, particularly Slywester Szymd. This climb with its regular gradients seemingly suits him, yet can his climbing have improved so rapidly whilst he was looking relatively disappointing in Romandie?
Rujano: Imo he has had a reasonably good Giro considering he is not out of contention just yet, and his certainly up there in terms of his climbing indeed most people would consider the most talented climber in this field. Yet it may be difficult to attack with a super strong Liquigas team on his wheels.
Kreuziger: Has had a steady start to this Giro with a reasonably impressive prologue and he has consistently finished in the front group. His climb in the high mountains has never been spectactular yet this stage was the stage which he himself targeted befor the Giro as the final climb does not have dramatic changes in Gradient which he struggles to adapt to. He looked strong in Romandie and TA but there still remain question marks over his ability when it comes to the proper tough stuff.
Pozzovivo: He has been in dazzling form with a dominating climbing display at Trentino and a very impressive attack on stage 6 which led to a stage win and he also gained time on other contenders which puts him in a good position GC wise, certainly a talented climber but he is required to be consistent if he wants to deliever the goods and his tactics against the stronger Liquigas and Lampre teams on this climb will have to be spot on.
Schleck: He was impressive on stage 7 yet lost invaluable time over the past week and a rather unsavoury spat with Alex Rasmussen has certainly not furthered his cause. Imo he is certainly capable in mixing with any of the climbers in this Giro but question marks remain over his climbing considering that he was informed so late about his participation in Italy. He may be good coming into the last week, in the Dolomites, but will he be strong enough on this stage?
Rodriguez: Will be over the moon with how the Giro has gone so far for himself. 2 time trials out of the way and he is leading the Giro thanks to his trademark uphill sprints. His uphill sprinting does not tell us that much about his form as he was impressive in that forte in the Vuelta yet he was disappointing when it came to the high mountains. Also he would have had a long peak considering that he was aiming to be primarily in top form for the Ardennes with his FW win. This particular stage doesnt necessarily suit him as he generally prefers the steeper stuff, so imo he will be happy just to wheelsuck the Liquigas train up to the top and hope opportunits like Gadret, Rujano and Pozzovivo havent taken his jersey away.
Gadret: His team desperately requires a win and he is the most likely man to deliver it. last year he was a bit underestimated originally and so he could get away for a win on stage11 but this year he will be certainly marked, even considering he has already lost a bit of time as people know he has made the Giro the basis for his entire season.
Other favorites: Hesjedal, Tiralongo, Dupont, Uran, Cunego, Szymd, Nieve.
GC:
RODRIGUEZ OLIVER Joaquin KAT
2. HESJEDAL Ryder GRM 00:00:17
3. CASAR Sandy FDJ 00:00:26
4. TIRALONGO Paolo AST 00:00:32
5. SANTAROMITA Ivan BMC 00:00:49
6. KREUZIGER Roman AST 00:00:52
7. INTXAUSTI ELORRIAGA Benat MOV 00:00:52
8. BASSO Ivan LIQ 00:00:57
9. CARUSO Damiano LIQ 00:01:02
10. CATALDO Dario OPQ 00:01:03
11. CAPECCHI Eros LIQ 00:01:09
12. URAN Rigoberto SKY 00:01:10
13. SCARPONI Michele LAM 00:01:11
14. POZZOVIVO Domenico COG 00:01:12
15. HENAO MONTOYA Sergio SKY 00:01:27
16. CUNEGO Damiano LAM 00:01:37
17. HUZARSKI Bartosz APP 00:01:48
18. PARDILLA BELLON Sergio MOV 00:01:51
19. SZMYD Sylvester LIQ 00:01:53
20. TSCHOPP Johann BMC 00:02:02
21. STETINA Peter GRM 00:02:03
22. DE GENDT Thomas VCD 00:02:05
23. VISCONTI Giovanni MOV 00:02:06
24. PINOTTI Marco BMC 00:02:09
25. SCHLECK Frank RNT 00:02:11
26. VANDEVELDE Christian GRM 00:02:11
27. MORENO FERNANDEZ Daniel KAT 00:02:16
28. PAUWELS Serge OPQ 00:02:28
29. SLAGTER Tom Jelte RAB 00:02:43
30. BRUSEGHIN Marzio MOV 00:02:47
31. GADRET John ALM 00:02:55
32. BRAMBILLA Gianluca COG 00:02:58
33. LARSSON Gustav Erik VCD 00:03:03
34. RUJANO GUILLEN José AND 00:03:05
35. GARATE Juan Manuel RAB 00:03:08
36. SEELDRAYERS Kevin AST 00:03:08
37. NIEVE ITURALDE Mikel EUS 00:03:35
38. DE CLERCQ Bart LTB 00:03:45
39. RODRIGUEZ Jackson AND 00:03:45
40. DE GREEF Francis LTB 00:04:10
41. LAGUTIN Sergey VCD 00:04:10
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