TDF2012 said:
No mention of Jelle Vanendert yet?
I think this Stage is more appealing to the King of The Mountain Jersey contenders rather than the GC Contenders. Today Vanendert didn't do any work for Jurgen Van Den Broeck and in the final 20k he lost 5 minutes on the bunch. Definitely no crash and he has been backed so far in the odds for tomorrows stage. CAS will probably show some interest but this is the Stage for someone to really take a strong hold on the PolkaDot Jersey and I think Jelle Vanendert fits the bill.
No guarantee he will even get in the break, but at 17+ minutes down in the GC, Sky will have no problems with him going up the road, while Jurgen Van Den Broeck tried a few things today without the help of Vanendert. With the sheer number of points available in the Mountains we will finally see who is targeting this Jersey, rather than someone just ending up with it at the end of the Tour. I don't rate Moncoutie at the Tour De France in recent times and I am not sure he has the form to win a stage like the stage tomorrow.
Vanendert and Jurgen Van Den Broeck have both stated they feel very good and have the legs so I wouldn't be shocked to see Vanendert go up the road early on. As previously stated I expect CAS to be there bobbing around too. Valverde is another possiblity to consider.
As for the GC riders I can't see anyone giving Sky to hard of a time. Nibali seems intent on targeting the downhill sections rather than the climbs themselves while Cadel Evans seems content just sitting on Wiggins back wheel watching what anyone else is trying.
Van Den Broeck is a very good climber anyway, although it seems from comments I am seeing around the web he had slipped under the radar a bit prior to the Tour commencing and he shouldn't get dropped by the favourites climbing the Mountains at this years Tour. Not with Contador and A. Schleck both absent. He looks most likely to try something at the moment on the climbs but no-one seems interested in following him today. Everyone else was just watching what Sky do.
We will see I guess. But hoping Vanendert goes for the King of The Mountains Jersey and has a dig tomorrow.
A couple of things to take into account. If Vanendert goes in a long break, chances are Sky won't let him go, because they will smell the trouble a mile away. Jurgen bridges and rides off with Jelle (who waits for his leader) pulling him for all he's worth. Even if Jelle wants to go for stagewin, this is a scenario Sky needs to consider, and i doubt they'll just let him go. Even if they would be able to catch them, it wouldn't be Bo Hagen doing the work, chances are Froomie would need to step up, leaving his leader exposed.
Furthermore, if Jelle goes in a long break, who is going to join him and who is going to ride? For instance, had he felt good and been in the break on wednesday with Voeckler&co, he would have dropped them like a bad habbit and freewheeled towards the finish, backwards, while reciting Shakespeare. So who would ride with him? Not many. So if Jelle attacks, i think it will be on the last climb or maybe in the last K's of the penultimate climb. My 2 cents.
As for Jurgens climbing abilities. I don't see anyone tempo-climb him off easily, unless he's exhausted (previous day attack, attack earlier in the stage, comeback from a mechanical like on stage 7...). But he can't keep up with the true climbers tempo attacks (cfr Contador), he might not lose that much time afterwards, but he will certainly be gapped initially. He just doesn't have the needed gunpowder in his legs.
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