2012 Tour de France: Stage 16: Pau → Bagnères-de-Luchon, 197 km

[Vino attacks everyone]

Kessiakoff to go for KOM points galore!

 

[Mellow Velo]

The weather may factor. Supposed to be very hot on Wednesday.
90F in the valleys.

 

[Magnus]

You have to go from Pau to Bagneres De Luchon? Fine.
Just use Col D'Azet after Aspin. So you drop the useless valley before Peyresourde and one can attack from Azet. No one will ever attack on Tourmalet with Aspin being there. So yes, it's completely useless. Tourmalet has been climbed a zillion times... I wonder how many times it was meaningful.

None of the favourites will attack on the Tourmalet because the pass is 80 km from the finish.

Even if there will be no apparent GC action on Tourmalet it will not be completely useless. It will still play a role for the break that will be formed (which can be of importance to the GC play later in the day). If some of the contenders manages to get teammates in the break they could attack on the last 4 km of Aspin and then use their teammates between Arreau and Arreaux.

 

[Eshnar]

This is going to be a big one. Shame on those who not only choose pessimism, but then wave it in the face of those who genuinely want to enjoy the spectacle. And it is a choice...

Shame on those who not only choose blind optimism, but fail to provide any logical justification, and uselessly attack those who chose to think with their own minds instead of having faith that things are gonna be good because... ehm... because we want them to be good.

 

[search]

they did more or less exactly the same stage in 1998:

01. Rodolfo Massi (Ita) Casino 5.49.40 (33.717)
02. Marco Pantani (Ita) Mercatone Uno 0.36
03. Michael Boogerd (Ned) Rabobank 0.59
04. Bobby Julich (USA) Cofidis 0.59
05. Giuseppe Di Grande (Ita) Mapei 0.59
06. Jose Maria Jimenez (Spa) Banesto 0.59
07. Fernando Escartin (Spa) Kelme 0.59
08. Jan Ullrich (Ger) Telekom 0.59
09. Jean-Cyril Robin (Fra) US Postal 0.59
10. Leonardo Piepoli (Ita) Saeco 0.59
[...]
96. George Hincapie (USA) US Postal 26.07
[...]
103. Jens Voigt (Ger) GAN 26.07

 

[Magnus]

I think it's safe to say times have changed.
That stage was also 326 kilometers long, which, as you'll note, this is not.

Yes it was. And it had something like 150 km of flat in the end when going from east to west. Imagine the explosion of ASO hatred on the forum if they did that today. Or even just the absolutely epic Tourmalet stage from '69 where Merckx took 8 minutes on everybody even though the finish line was some 70 km from the top of Aubisque.

 

[Magnus]

Shame on those who not only choose blind optimism, but fail to provide any logical justification, and uselessly attack those who chose to think with their own minds instead of having faith that things are gonna be good because... ehm... because we want them to be good.

If any of Wiggins' challengers are stronger than him in the mountains, the Peyresourde ascent should be difficult enough to make the difference and the descent would most likely only extend a hypothetical gap.

 

[guncha]

Second of three stages for GC in high mountains. Nibali or other non-Sky GC contenders should try to do something in this stage. It would be naive to expect attacks on Aubisque or Tourmalet as both climbs are too far from finish. Aspin is overrated as it should have been 2nd cat. climb, it is doubtful someone will attack on this climb. If something will happen it will be on Peyresourde. However, it is the easiest side of Peyresourde and is neither long or steep it should hurt. But it should hurt.

 

[Eshnar]

If any of Wiggins' challengers are stronger than him in the mountains, the Peyresourde ascent should be difficult enough to make the difference and the descent would most likely only extend a hypothetical gap.

Yes, that could gain a massive minute on Wiggins.
But I didn't said there won't be time gaps. I said that Tourmalet is totally wasted by Aspin, and that the only action will be on Peyresourde.
Ofc, there could be desperate attacks from Aspin or even Tourmalet. Which will fail just as Evans on Croix.

 

[H2OUUP2]

Someone will go away De Gendt-style over the top of the Tourmalet. I'm hoping a Brajkovic or Rolland will go, given a long leash from sky, and ride their way into the top 5. Similarly, while everyone is looking to Nibali for the descent finish, JVDB has also been very aggressive, and could be a powerful instigator on the penultimate or final climb. Lets hope Cadel has the legs like he did in the final week of last years tour, and not the ones from a week ago.

This is going to be a big one. Shame on those who not only choose pessimism, but then wave it in the face of those who genuinely want to enjoy the spectacle. And it is a choice...

I don't see them letting Rolland, or Brajkovic go. To close.
I do agree though with your views on VDB. He will be looking to solidify that top 5 position before the final ITT.

As for the KOM jersey, I think Voeckler is going for it. He is so far back in the GC that they will let him go and not care. I really don't see them letting C. Sorenson, or Rolland going, and I don't see Kessiakoff taking it into Paris.

 

[Richeypen]

The weather may factor. Supposed to be very hot on Wednesday.
90C in the valleys.

errrr, hoping that you mean F, before the water in thebottles starts to boil

 

[Magnus]

I really don't see them letting C. Sorenson, or Rolland going,

CAS is 20 minutes down on the GC.

 

[H2OUUP2]

CAS is 20 minutes down on the GC.

Yes, he is, but do you think a guy like Roche, or Pinot wants him taking his spot?

As you know, In these stages the gaps, and breakaways can get big.

Voeckler is far enough behind(another 25 minutes from CAS), that no one will take notice. If he is away 10 or 12 minutes, who's gonna care? Rogers(26th)? Valverde(25th)? Probably not.

 

[Magnus]

Yes, he is, but do you think a guy like Roche, or Pinot wants him taking his spot?

As you know, In these stages the gaps, and breakaways can get big.

Pinot hasn't been looking good the last couple of days. I doubt Ag2r will try to pull the break back. Of course Roche might try to follow the break but he doesn't strike me as a long range attack type of rider. We'll see.

 

[H2OUUP2]

Pinot hasn't been looking good the last couple of days. I doubt Ag2r will try to pull the break back. Of course Roche might try to follow the break but he doesn't strike me as a long range attack type of rider. We'll see.

Ya, I don't really see ag2r doing a thing, but you know what I mean. I think if CAS went, some teams would take notice, and try to keep him fairly close, while if Voeckler went, it wouldn't matter a bit.

It would actually be great to see CAS, Voeckler, and kessiakoff all go out to try and take it. Would make for a great stage. These two stages coming up will basically decide that jersey.

 

[LesDiablesRouges]

Would be nice to see someone high on the GC launch a Merckx like attack on the Tourmalet but Col D'Aspin has to be the marked attacking point. Problem is I think the only way for someone to knock Wiggins off is go for broke on the Tourmalet.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Would be nice to see someone high on the GC launch a Merckx like attack on the Tourmalet but Col D'Aspin has to be the marked attacking point. Problem is I think the only way for someone to knock Wiggins off is go for broke on the Tourmalet.

There is literally no one with a big enough engine to pull that off. In fact, contador would need to make babies with De Gendt in order to find someone that can launch a full blown attack so far from the finish and make it stick against the sky train.

 

[ericthesportsman6]

Shame on those who not only choose blind optimism, but fail to provide any logical justification, and uselessly attack those who chose to think with their own minds instead of having faith that things are gonna be good because... ehm... because we want them to be good.

Logic? If you don't like, don't watch. And by extension, don't ruin other people's enjoyment by coming online and whining about it.

 

[cineteq]

Shame on those who not only choose blind optimism, but fail to provide any logical justification, and uselessly attack those who chose to think with their own minds instead of having faith that things are gonna be good because... ehm... because we want them to be good.

You sound like a little-town Sunday preacher apprentice. I can really picture your voice.

Like the previous poster said: don't bother watching, you might make your day more useful by going to church or the beach. Anyway I'm sure Rolland, VDB and Nibali will prove you dead wrong!

 

[Eyeballs Out]

they did more or less exactly the same stage in 1998:

01. Rodolfo Massi (Ita) Casino 5.49.40 (33.717)
02. Marco Pantani (Ita) Mercatone Uno 0.36
03. Michael Boogerd (Ned) Rabobank 0.59
04. Bobby Julich (USA) Cofidis 0.59
05. Giuseppe Di Grande (Ita) Mapei 0.59
06. Jose Maria Jimenez (Spa) Banesto 0.59
07. Fernando Escartin (Spa) Kelme 0.59
08. Jan Ullrich (Ger) Telekom 0.59
09. Jean-Cyril Robin (Fra) US Postal 0.59
10. Leonardo Piepoli (Ita) Saeco 0.59

Indeed. Hope it's more selective this time round. Ullrich looked unbeatable at that point but it all turned around over the following week. It was a wet day I think

 

[The Hitch]

This was supposed to be Hitch's saving grace

It was?

 

[robert_c]

WTF?? Drunk driving media car? To much Bordeaux I guess.

"Another media car was also removed permanently from the race after failing an alcohol test."

 

[thehog]

I think Liquigas will have to go to the front and drive it on the second half of the Tourmalet. There can be no holding back on this stage and ride with the handbrake on. They have to isolate Wiggins and Froome as early as possible from EBH, Porte, and Rogers and put them under pressure, therefore Basso and especially Smyzd need to be on better days then what they have shown so far which is seriously questionable if they can be to say the least.

I think this is what the organisers were hoping for anyway when they planned this stage as with the Tourmalet and Aubisque coming in the earlier parts of the race, the likes of Nibali and VDB won't sit back and wait for the final climb before racing. It should lead to a more aggressive race early on.

Lets hope they live up to it.

I'd say World Tour points keeps them in the peloton till the end then they'll attack. VDB and Nibs are not going to risk their GC spots.

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

Epic waste of Tourmalet. (And Aubisque, for that matter)

Yep. A case study in how to kill two mountains with one stage. Waste of two spectacular climbs.

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

Vino will be in the break on this stage.